Recent runner-up in the British Open Steve Elkington has a very good long term record in the International and also has 2 other top 5 finishes this year - 66/1 at Hills is bigger than expected.
The International
- Thread starter Ian
- Start date
Nevada Bob - May! - been playing well last couple of weeks and has improved here the last 2 years - 150/1 Sporting Odds, also if anyone has an Intertops account - Appleby should not be 50/1 - shame it's win only.
early 72 hole plays @ Cascade
Singh -115 over Love
Rollins -115 over Leggett (this line won't last)
Mick -110 over Els (leading birdie man @ -110?)
Baird -120 over Choi
Faxon -120 over Oly
Unusual to have this much chalk but I like em!
Singh -115 over Love
Rollins -115 over Leggett (this line won't last)
Mick -110 over Els (leading birdie man @ -110?)
Baird -120 over Choi
Faxon -120 over Oly
Unusual to have this much chalk but I like em!
Taking a huge leap of faith with Magee - finished with a 64 on Sunday to finish 10th - his best finish since Feb when 3rd in the AT & T - plays well here in the desert 200/1 Centrebet is too big (more played on the place part though)
Appleby 40/1 Bet365. Top 5 finishes in his last two events and has a solid record in this event.
K. Perry 50/1 Centrebet. 4th in his last start and 11th last year. Highly ranked in the important total birdies category.
Elkington 66/1 Willhill. Is in fine form and his record in this event is impressive.
K. Perry 50/1 Centrebet. 4th in his last start and 11th last year. Highly ranked in the important total birdies category.
Elkington 66/1 Willhill. Is in fine form and his record in this event is impressive.
Steve Elkington 66/1 1/4 lst 5 at Victor Chandler.
Shaping up for a forum KOD.... must admit I also took some 66/1 at Hills last night before topping up at Chandlers this morning.
I thought he was unlucky not to win The Open in regulation. His approach to the last was bang on line and just took a hard bounce through the back. When in good health he is a class player. Two top 10's in his last 3 visits here.
He also has a US PGA win and 2 x 3rds... can anyone find better than the 100/1 (again with Victor Chandler) in case he does the business this week?
Shaping up for a forum KOD.... must admit I also took some 66/1 at Hills last night before topping up at Chandlers this morning.
I thought he was unlucky not to win The Open in regulation. His approach to the last was bang on line and just took a hard bounce through the back. When in good health he is a class player. Two top 10's in his last 3 visits here.
He also has a US PGA win and 2 x 3rds... can anyone find better than the 100/1 (again with Victor Chandler) in case he does the business this week?
1 ew Appleby..the other Aus who should have won the Open!
40/1 Bet365
1 ew Riley..5th last week..14/2 last two years here..40/1 BlueSquare
40/1 Bet365
1 ew Riley..5th last week..14/2 last two years here..40/1 BlueSquare
Outright plays (1 unit):
Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or BetDirect
Course experience is vital at this course and this altitude and all three selections have that. Garcia is the only one not have won this title, but he has finished in the top-15 on all three previous visits and really should have finished higher on each occasion. In 1999 and 2000, he was 4th after the 3rd round and last year he was 7th, but on all three occasions he has fallen back on Sunday. After getting himself into position every year, he's due a good final round in this event.
Davis Love to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
A winner in 1990 and has played in this event on ten occasions, he should be familiar with the conditions even though he has not been back since 1999. But it is his current form that keeps him under consideration. Runner-up in both his PGA Tour events preceding the British Open and a solid 14th place at Muirfield. When he's playing well, he is worth backing even if he is much more likely to finish 2nd than 1st.
Vijay Singh to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Sporting Odds
Considered Kenny Perry for the final berth, but sided with a player who is much more likely to win the event. Singh may not have been struggling with his game and his health (foot injury) in the past few months, but his record in this event is excellent. A winner in 1998 and 3rd last year, he has finished in the top-20 in five of six starts. This specialist event could see a return to form from the Fijian.
Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler or BetDirect
Course experience is vital at this course and this altitude and all three selections have that. Garcia is the only one not have won this title, but he has finished in the top-15 on all three previous visits and really should have finished higher on each occasion. In 1999 and 2000, he was 4th after the 3rd round and last year he was 7th, but on all three occasions he has fallen back on Sunday. After getting himself into position every year, he's due a good final round in this event.
Davis Love to win 22/1 e.w. @ BetDirect
A winner in 1990 and has played in this event on ten occasions, he should be familiar with the conditions even though he has not been back since 1999. But it is his current form that keeps him under consideration. Runner-up in both his PGA Tour events preceding the British Open and a solid 14th place at Muirfield. When he's playing well, he is worth backing even if he is much more likely to finish 2nd than 1st.
Vijay Singh to win 25/1 e.w. @ Bet365 or Sporting Odds
Considered Kenny Perry for the final berth, but sided with a player who is much more likely to win the event. Singh may not have been struggling with his game and his health (foot injury) in the past few months, but his record in this event is excellent. A winner in 1998 and 3rd last year, he has finished in the top-20 in five of six starts. This specialist event could see a return to form from the Fijian.
One more bet for me in International - mentioned a few times before - Begay - really thinks he can win again - 19th here in 2000 when in form which he definitely is now 66/1Sporting Odds.
Other players I like but I try and only back players who have won before - Riley (too predictable - bad price), Rollins, Geoff Ogilvy and Brett Quigley.
Other players I like but I try and only back players who have won before - Riley (too predictable - bad price), Rollins, Geoff Ogilvy and Brett Quigley.
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oops I see my post early this morning on outright did not take for some reason.Here is reprint from elsewhere and ticket.Wouldn't want anyone to think I was fudging
an early outright @ Sportingbet
Riley 1/2 unit E/W @ 50/1
Don't look for these odds to last. Riley vastly under rated. Plays well here with 2 place finish last year and 14th finish in 2000. Playing some of his best golf now. I'll try a rare E/W at these #s.
Bet Id: 5329971 - Click here for a full breakdown of your bet.
Placing Time: Tue Jul 30 09:44:01 2002
Type: Single
Each Way: Y
Basic Stake: 10.00 USD
This bet consists of: Selection Backing Bet Type Odds
The International C Riley Each Way 1/4 odds place 1-5 50/
an early outright @ Sportingbet
Riley 1/2 unit E/W @ 50/1
Don't look for these odds to last. Riley vastly under rated. Plays well here with 2 place finish last year and 14th finish in 2000. Playing some of his best golf now. I'll try a rare E/W at these #s.
Bet Id: 5329971 - Click here for a full breakdown of your bet.
Placing Time: Tue Jul 30 09:44:01 2002
Type: Single
Each Way: Y
Basic Stake: 10.00 USD
This bet consists of: Selection Backing Bet Type Odds
The International C Riley Each Way 1/4 odds place 1-5 50/
adding 72 hole @ $plays Will pick on Lehman once again
Calc -110 over Lehman
Calc ranks 6th in birds /rd >lehman 177th
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/r_156.html
Calc -110 over Lehman
Calc ranks 6th in birds /rd >lehman 177th
http://www.pgatour.com/stats/r_156.html
Interesting stat...the leader(or tied) after rd 1 has won for the last four years, except for last year when Janzen led, Riley was second after rd 1 and came second, so you need to get out of traps quickly...
With that in mind I am reinvesting in Appleby with his 0700 tee-time...should be nice and quiet for him to sneak clear early...!!
I know some of you have views on early tee-time on day 2 being better than on day 1, so we will see.....
With that in mind I am reinvesting in Appleby with his 0700 tee-time...should be nice and quiet for him to sneak clear early...!!
I know some of you have views on early tee-time on day 2 being better than on day 1, so we will see.....
Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Briny Baird to beat Notah Begay -111 @ Bet365
Both players in good form at the moment, but Baird is playing far better. Hard to ignore a 15-1 head-to-head record that Baird has over Begay over the past twelve months.
Duffy Waldorf to beat Notah Begay +100 @ Surrey
Two form players, but Duffy holds a 6-1 head-to-head lead over Begay over the last three months with the only loss being last week when a letdown from the British Open was to be expected. He had a rollercoaster event - particularly on the Saturday - and is in the form to repeat his top-20 finish of last year.
Chris DiMarco to beat Charles Howell -125 @ Cascade
Howell is certainly a player to oppose at the moment as he struggles with his game. He has finished ahead of DiMarco just four times in the past year and should struggle to make the final round.
Davis Love to beat Vijay Singh -105 @ Cascade or Moneyplays
For the sake of the outright plays, we should see an improved display from Singh this week, but when Love has a 6-0 head-to-head lead over him over the past three months, he looks the likelier contender this week.
Phil Mickelson to beat Ernie Els -110 @ Five Dimes
Both in great form and have excellent records in this event. Just expecting Els to suffer a post-major reaction, particularly after the way he made victory so hard for himself.
Briny Baird to beat Notah Begay -111 @ Bet365
Both players in good form at the moment, but Baird is playing far better. Hard to ignore a 15-1 head-to-head record that Baird has over Begay over the past twelve months.
Duffy Waldorf to beat Notah Begay +100 @ Surrey
Two form players, but Duffy holds a 6-1 head-to-head lead over Begay over the last three months with the only loss being last week when a letdown from the British Open was to be expected. He had a rollercoaster event - particularly on the Saturday - and is in the form to repeat his top-20 finish of last year.
Chris DiMarco to beat Charles Howell -125 @ Cascade
Howell is certainly a player to oppose at the moment as he struggles with his game. He has finished ahead of DiMarco just four times in the past year and should struggle to make the final round.
Davis Love to beat Vijay Singh -105 @ Cascade or Moneyplays
For the sake of the outright plays, we should see an improved display from Singh this week, but when Love has a 6-0 head-to-head lead over him over the past three months, he looks the likelier contender this week.
Phil Mickelson to beat Ernie Els -110 @ Five Dimes
Both in great form and have excellent records in this event. Just expecting Els to suffer a post-major reaction, particularly after the way he made victory so hard for himself.
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International thoughts and pix...
International thoughts and pix...
Back...after posting a pretty decent Open record...I like these odd-ball events, because the bookies simply do not know how to handicap them...all hell can break loose and usually does...
Horses for courses??? I see many of the posters here going by how a particular player did in the past in this event...that is a good thought, if you temper it a bit with looking at the players recent form...and I am thinking there may be more than one international player who may be suffering from some jet lag afterflying here from the British Open...
Ernie Els - will NOT win this event, and this may be the perfect time to fade him against most if the other players I agree with Stanley that he will be suffering from "post Major Win let down".
Hills and Mountains...this course has some very severe hills and long walks between greens and tees... and I look for the older and/or heavier and/or out of shape players to possibly fade on Saturday and Sunday...I will let you be the judge of what players fit this scenario...
Look for the risk-takers/birdieshooters...J.P. Hayes had a very nice tounament last week, and should continue making the putts...Garcia should be tough...and Mickelson...this is not a scramblers tournament as such...but it will play a part if greens are missed and players need to avoid a bogey or double bogey...
Plays, in no particular order...:
1. Charles Howell to win [44:1] and Place [12:1] [SportOdds]
2. Neil Lancaster to Win [+10000] - this guy has shot 29 twice in the US Open, and can get on a birdie roll...[SportOdds]
3. Charles Howell "to show" [1st, 2nd 3rd, or 4th] +1500
Howell has game, and is due to have a break-out. Now in his second year, he should be able to adjust better to the courses he plays this year, having seen them one already last year.
May post some matches later, but my daughter wants to use the internet...
IP :spotting:
International thoughts and pix...
Back...after posting a pretty decent Open record...I like these odd-ball events, because the bookies simply do not know how to handicap them...all hell can break loose and usually does...
Horses for courses??? I see many of the posters here going by how a particular player did in the past in this event...that is a good thought, if you temper it a bit with looking at the players recent form...and I am thinking there may be more than one international player who may be suffering from some jet lag afterflying here from the British Open...
Ernie Els - will NOT win this event, and this may be the perfect time to fade him against most if the other players I agree with Stanley that he will be suffering from "post Major Win let down".
Hills and Mountains...this course has some very severe hills and long walks between greens and tees... and I look for the older and/or heavier and/or out of shape players to possibly fade on Saturday and Sunday...I will let you be the judge of what players fit this scenario...
Look for the risk-takers/birdieshooters...J.P. Hayes had a very nice tounament last week, and should continue making the putts...Garcia should be tough...and Mickelson...this is not a scramblers tournament as such...but it will play a part if greens are missed and players need to avoid a bogey or double bogey...
Plays, in no particular order...:
1. Charles Howell to win [44:1] and Place [12:1] [SportOdds]
2. Neil Lancaster to Win [+10000] - this guy has shot 29 twice in the US Open, and can get on a birdie roll...[SportOdds]
3. Charles Howell "to show" [1st, 2nd 3rd, or 4th] +1500
Howell has game, and is due to have a break-out. Now in his second year, he should be able to adjust better to the courses he plays this year, having seen them one already last year.
May post some matches later, but my daughter wants to use the internet...
IP :spotting:
OUTRIGHTS
Vijay Singh(25/1 e.w. for 0.25* @ Bet365)
I have profitably opposed or avoided Vijay since The Memorial. It's getting to be about time to get some wrinkles ironed out, so an attractive price in a different format on a track he likes are all O.K. by me.
Brad Faxon(66/1 e.w. for 0.20* @ Bet365)
I was surprised enough by his course form to think there is something there to ignite a spark. The men inside my brain won't let me discard him at these odds.
Charles Howell III(66/1 e.w. for 0.15* @ 5dimes)
His game may be on an uptick, and some rising displeasure may start showing for good or for bad, but my shrinking stake reflects my shrinking confidence in this selection.
Lee Janzen(80/1 e.w. for 0.15* @ Bet365)
I also looked closely at Riley, Perry, McCarron, Elkington, Begay, Norman, Lancaster, Perez and Tataurangi, and it all seems to have made me a little crazy. While Janzen is T10 in birdie average, he is T183 (with Faxon) in Bounce Back. Crash and Burn.
GL
Vijay Singh(25/1 e.w. for 0.25* @ Bet365)
I have profitably opposed or avoided Vijay since The Memorial. It's getting to be about time to get some wrinkles ironed out, so an attractive price in a different format on a track he likes are all O.K. by me.
Brad Faxon(66/1 e.w. for 0.20* @ Bet365)
I was surprised enough by his course form to think there is something there to ignite a spark. The men inside my brain won't let me discard him at these odds.
Charles Howell III(66/1 e.w. for 0.15* @ 5dimes)
His game may be on an uptick, and some rising displeasure may start showing for good or for bad, but my shrinking stake reflects my shrinking confidence in this selection.
Lee Janzen(80/1 e.w. for 0.15* @ Bet365)
I also looked closely at Riley, Perry, McCarron, Elkington, Begay, Norman, Lancaster, Perez and Tataurangi, and it all seems to have made me a little crazy. While Janzen is T10 in birdie average, he is T183 (with Faxon) in Bounce Back. Crash and Burn.
GL
MATCHUPS and 3 BALLS for 1*:
Mickelson(-120) over Els
More often than not, I am S-L-O-W to pull the trigger. I know myself well enough to know that the better judgment that results more than compensates for any movement in the odds, although I should have a few more outs if that is my method. The -110 @ 5dimes immediately jumped out at me and I was in for 1/2 unit within 30 minutes; when I moved about 36 hours later to add another 1/2 unit, -130 @ Olympic was the best available to me. Will Lefty be focused and sharp? Will The Big Easy still be in that groove?
Molder(5/4) over Quinney/H. Haas
Janzen(6/4) over Huston/Stadler
Trying to snare a 3 Ball, or even two of them, which were looking as good as the matchups.
GL
Mickelson(-120) over Els
More often than not, I am S-L-O-W to pull the trigger. I know myself well enough to know that the better judgment that results more than compensates for any movement in the odds, although I should have a few more outs if that is my method. The -110 @ 5dimes immediately jumped out at me and I was in for 1/2 unit within 30 minutes; when I moved about 36 hours later to add another 1/2 unit, -130 @ Olympic was the best available to me. Will Lefty be focused and sharp? Will The Big Easy still be in that groove?
Molder(5/4) over Quinney/H. Haas
Janzen(6/4) over Huston/Stadler
Trying to snare a 3 Ball, or even two of them, which were looking as good as the matchups.
GL
2nd rd plays
Norman -110 vs Couples @ Cascade
Beckman -115 vs Begay @ Cascade
Pate -110 vs Gonzalez @ Wsex
threw this little far fetched 3ball combo for Shits and grins @365
1
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 14:27 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) R Mediate 13/8 To Win
2
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 15:03 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) C Riley 11/10 To Win
3
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 15:12 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) C Howell III 6/5 To Win
4
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 19:39 BST (3 Balls) P Mickelson 11/10 To Win
5
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 19:39 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) C Beckman 7/4 To Win
Norman -110 vs Couples @ Cascade
Beckman -115 vs Begay @ Cascade
Pate -110 vs Gonzalez @ Wsex
threw this little far fetched 3ball combo for Shits and grins @365
1
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 14:27 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) R Mediate 13/8 To Win
2
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 15:03 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) C Riley 11/10 To Win
3
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 15:12 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) C Howell III 6/5 To Win
4
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 19:39 BST (3 Balls) P Mickelson 11/10 To Win
5
02/08/2002 The International, Round 2 - 19:39 BST - Tee 10 (3 Balls) C Beckman 7/4 To Win
at the cut: 2nd rd 2-1 72 holes 0-4 (yikes)
Singh -115 over Love 9 up
Rollins -115 over Leggett (this line won't last) 1 down
Mick -110 over Els (leading birdie man @ -110?) loss
Baird -120 over Choi loss
Faxon -120 over Oly loss
Calc -110 over Lehman loss
2nd rd plays
Norman -110 vs Couples @ Cascade win
Beckman -115 vs Begay @ Cascade loss
Pate -110 vs Gonzalez @ Wsex win
72 holes a nightmare, worst part failed to exploit dubber Duval this week.
Singh -115 over Love 9 up
Rollins -115 over Leggett (this line won't last) 1 down
Mick -110 over Els (leading birdie man @ -110?) loss
Baird -120 over Choi loss
Faxon -120 over Oly loss
Calc -110 over Lehman loss
2nd rd plays
Norman -110 vs Couples @ Cascade win
Beckman -115 vs Begay @ Cascade loss
Pate -110 vs Gonzalez @ Wsex win
72 holes a nightmare, worst part failed to exploit dubber Duval this week.
