The Limper NBA 2018/19 - 1/1 to 1/7
- Thread starter WillyBoy
- Start date
I dont get how your record works.. last night game you have Atlanta +6. they got blown out but it says you WON straight up but lost the spread? you should only keep record of ATS.
The projected straight-up (SU) winner was Washington by 4.5, NOT Atlanta, and Washington won, so the result was naturally a SU win. The projected margin of victory (MOV) for Washington, however, was 4.5 points, but the closing line of WAS -6 exceeded the MOV, so the model?s ATS pick was Atlanta +6 ? but Atlanta was blown out and Washington DID cover, so the model?s ATS projection obviously lost.
As I have said before, the key to whatever usefulness the model may have for you is the projected SU winner and MOV ? not the ATS pick, which can easily vary depending on the closing line. The ATS win/loss record is the way I grade the reliability of the model?s MOV projections.
Sorry for the confusion.
Every season the model has a tendency to fall, for a while, into either dog or favorite leans. It will like favorites a bit more, naturally, because the numbers add that way, but depending on the most recent trend, it will lean further and further, either toward favorites or dogs ? and there?s no stopping it until the trend ends. Anyway, just a note of caution.
