The Limper is a number-based projection model utilizing past-performance team and player data as well as current match-up variables. The algorithm used is based on an old marketing model I hawked around decades ago, and it took some doing, but I got it fit for basketball projections almost 20 years ago. The only subjective aspect of the model are the selection of variables used and how they?re weighted, but I don?t think any of those selections would be controversial. Although I update the injury module of the program every day before posting, very often decisions to play or sit are made right at tip-off, which can easily alter outcomes. Also, remember the Limper is a projection model, not a prediction machine, and is only best utilized as a guide - so bettor beware.
The ?GB? column reflects the number of games behind teams 2-8 are from the next higher seed (in white), while for teams 9-13 the column shows the number of games they are behind the number 8 seed (in yellow). There a couple of ways to do that, and I probably picked wrong, but ? hell ? I don?t get paid enough to be perfect. That said, if I did screw up something or you have suggestions, my door is always open. I?ll update the standings next week. Finally, as these last ?regular season? or ?seeding? games only last a couple weeks, I?ll simply be including them in the model?s ?Season Record?; and remember that the ?Projected ATS winner? is based on the line that is current at the time of posting; and, although the projected straight-up winner and margin of victory (MOV) will NOT change, if the line changes, up or down, it MAY alter the ?Final ATS Pick?, and the model?s ATS win/loss record. It?s the best way I know for grading the model?s reliability.
GLTA
The ?GB? column reflects the number of games behind teams 2-8 are from the next higher seed (in white), while for teams 9-13 the column shows the number of games they are behind the number 8 seed (in yellow). There a couple of ways to do that, and I probably picked wrong, but ? hell ? I don?t get paid enough to be perfect. That said, if I did screw up something or you have suggestions, my door is always open. I?ll update the standings next week. Finally, as these last ?regular season? or ?seeding? games only last a couple weeks, I?ll simply be including them in the model?s ?Season Record?; and remember that the ?Projected ATS winner? is based on the line that is current at the time of posting; and, although the projected straight-up winner and margin of victory (MOV) will NOT change, if the line changes, up or down, it MAY alter the ?Final ATS Pick?, and the model?s ATS win/loss record. It?s the best way I know for grading the model?s reliability.
GLTA
