The projections below are based on 71 variables concerning team and player past performance and current matchups of starters and rotations. It uses a daily culling of player data from over 40 twitter feeds from a variety of trusted team sources and applies a Value-Above-Replacement calculation to the results. Along with injuries, Covid 19 protocols, and resting starters, game time scratches are highly problematic; so, only use these numbers as a guide as I will be posting 2-3 hours prior to tip-off.
The point of all calculations is to project a margin-of-victory (MOV), and, while attendant scores are also projected, using these to predict game totals has never been reliable. Although the projected MOVs are never changed, projected ATS winners are based on current lines: however, for record keeping only closing lines are used, and this will occasionally produce pick-flips, but this has proven to be the most reliable and transparent way to gauge the model?s reliability.
This is the latest in the NBA season that I?ve ever begun posting basketball projections, but getting it all together has been a lot tougher than normal. Please, if you spot errors or have questions or suggestions let them fly. Still, I think it?s all ready now, so here it goes. GLTA
The point of all calculations is to project a margin-of-victory (MOV), and, while attendant scores are also projected, using these to predict game totals has never been reliable. Although the projected MOVs are never changed, projected ATS winners are based on current lines: however, for record keeping only closing lines are used, and this will occasionally produce pick-flips, but this has proven to be the most reliable and transparent way to gauge the model?s reliability.
This is the latest in the NBA season that I?ve ever begun posting basketball projections, but getting it all together has been a lot tougher than normal. Please, if you spot errors or have questions or suggestions let them fly. Still, I think it?s all ready now, so here it goes. GLTA
