Did a season long manual sweep of lines and found a number of “closing lines” which weren’t! Some ½ pt higher, some ½ pt lower, and found 12 that were consequential, which, after adjustment, netted 3 more wins and 2 fewer losses – in the end pushing up enough of the model’s ATS record to a point - 54.8% (just .2% below the ATS target of 55%) - where the red flag number dropped back to 1. However, as these corrections seem kind of ‘behind the back’, I’ve re-readjusted the posted ATS record to ignore those revised results leaving it at 53.8%. This, if not factually accurate is, to me, ethically the way to go.
Tracking down “consensus closing lines” from various sports-betting websites remains a problem for me, requiring, at the end of my day, a manual search and input. And -well - I’m old and that can lead to sloppiness, so if an egregious error is noted by anyone, let me know.
Totals projections remains pretty unreliable, so caveat bettor; and, with the exception of today, when GTD decisions are lower than average, I’ll continue posting no more than hour before tipoff – the best I can do.
As things stand about continuing, it remains touch and go for now, but only sloth (of which I do have plenty) would stop The Limper’s train from running at this point. So, I’ll take it a week at a time – until the model finally flames out for real. GLTA
Tracking down “consensus closing lines” from various sports-betting websites remains a problem for me, requiring, at the end of my day, a manual search and input. And -well - I’m old and that can lead to sloppiness, so if an egregious error is noted by anyone, let me know.
Totals projections remains pretty unreliable, so caveat bettor; and, with the exception of today, when GTD decisions are lower than average, I’ll continue posting no more than hour before tipoff – the best I can do.
As things stand about continuing, it remains touch and go for now, but only sloth (of which I do have plenty) would stop The Limper’s train from running at this point. So, I’ll take it a week at a time – until the model finally flames out for real. GLTA
