Dogs still rule at 56.6% ATS, (10-5 this past week), which I’ve said before, but it’s worth hammering home the point. Improved defenses across the league are keeping games closer, allowing bad offensive teams to cover while scoring relatively fewer points. (See the 2020, 2021 and 2022 MOV and Line variations below). The top 10 score differentials (margins of victory) are down 19.5% this year over last – meaning scores are closer – with line variations also down 17.5% for the same period.
Not that the model has paid much attention. Got lucky for once, going 11-4-1 ATS, which I’ll take after a string of beat-downs earlier in the season.
FYI – I’ve had to switch from Vegas Insider to VSiN for my consensus opening and closing lines. The “upgrades” at the Vegas Insider, have made data grabs of spreads and totals just too difficult for this old man to handle.
https://www.vsin.com/odds/NFL/
GLTA
Not that the model has paid much attention. Got lucky for once, going 11-4-1 ATS, which I’ll take after a string of beat-downs earlier in the season.
FYI – I’ve had to switch from Vegas Insider to VSiN for my consensus opening and closing lines. The “upgrades” at the Vegas Insider, have made data grabs of spreads and totals just too difficult for this old man to handle.
https://www.vsin.com/odds/NFL/
GLTA
