While the model modestly won ATS this past week, the straight-up results remain abysmal, which – for data projection purposes – are a killer. After 8 weeks, straight-up results should be in excess of 60%. The model is, I think, league-wide, underestimating defenses as a game factor (unders are killing it at nearly 59%), and some off-season tweaking is in the cards.
Dogs went 8-6-1 ATS this past week, and are still covering at 58.3%. Sometimes it pays to be a contrarian. Good luck to all this week.
Before anointing the Eagles and Bills runaway favorites for the Super Bowl, it bears looking at just who they’ve beaten thus far - who’s had the harder road to travel - and who’s improved their roster for the immediate future.
Standing head and shoulders above the crowd are the Ravens and Dolphins who, with the additions of Roquan Smith and Bradley Chub, respectively, and have already muscled their way into the top ten in both power rankings, have now also improved their already good defenses. The Bills did improve on offense getting Hines from the Colts, an RB who can catch the ball, but Miami – which has already beaten both the Bills and Ravens – also got a super upgrade on offense with RB Jeff Wilson from the 49ers.
Anything in the NFL can happen, but if Tua stays healthy (admittedly, a big “if”), I’m taking – in a small way – the Dolphins at +3000 to win it all.
It’s not the first time a QB could win MVP after playing an easy schedule, and this is not to minimize the value of Jaylen Hurts play, but he’s only played trash teams thus far (or good teams with significant starters injured), and given the Eagles’ remaining super-soft schedule, he could end up with an MVP award that’s not really deserved. Right now, Josh Allen is leading the pack with the odds at +125, Mahomes in a kind of “sentimental” second place at +350, and Hurts at +375 – far ahead of Lamar Jackson at +1300. Allen would have to stumble badly for that to change, but it could happen given some tough sledding ahead; and Mahomes and the Chiefs have also had an easy schedule so far, but it’s a more rugged schedule from here on – so Hurts, IMO, could be headed for a 17-0, or 16-1 season, and an “undeserved” MVP lock.
On the other hand, based on what I’ve seen, I’d draft Hurts today – for a real team - over Allen, Mahomes, or Jackson. He’s that good in all relevant data points. I think he’d survive a tougher schedule, and will almost certainly get to the Super Bowl, and could win it all; but, I think – for this regular season – unless they flop badly down the road, Allen or Jackson would be more deserving of MVP.
