The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 4

[WillyBoy]

Wacky season; wacky numbers, adding up to a data-based projection of 11 dogs covering in week 4. ELEVEN! WEEK 4! That’s saying 1 of 2 things: 1. Vegas line-setters are having a collective breakdown; or 2. my algorithm needs more work than I’ve given it. And it’s not like dogs are covering at a high rate; only a little better than 52% thru week 3, but the Vegas lines seem unreflective of reality. Or maybe I’m just crazy. GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

The variables and weights used in ranking determinations is not something I’ve revisited in years, and I think a new look is overdue. By the end of the season, it usually is reflective of reality in the major categories, but Special Teams are always a pain to get right. Fussing with the algorithm, however, is more work than I’m willing to put into it now, so I’ll save that for the offseason.

 

[BigSix]

Thanks for posting WillyBoy. I enjoy looking at what your algorithm puts out.

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[AimHigh]

I might not understand your spreadsheet... If SU = Straight up ... why is Tenn, Hous, TB marked as a loss ? NYJ and NE marked as a Win. I must be missing something.

 

[WillyBoy]

SU win/loss refers to the model's SU pick. For example, Pittsburgh was the SU Favorite, but they played like crap and lost straight-up. At least model didn't like them to cover at -3, and picked the Texans ATS.