The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 4

[WillyBoy]

Such a relief to be done with year old data. Not that I expect the model to suddenly take off, but it’s a lot of work to squeeze in that third game of numbers from last season, it feels like a burden lifted.

If you’ve been paying close attention: in addition to performing sweeps of various Vegas sportsbooks - to record consensus closing lines for each week - it also does a three-week re-sweep looking for past errors or changes. It then recomputes the ATS Win/Loss record; in this case finding 3 changes, resulting in a Week 1 pick flip in the model’s favor!! Usually, such changes result in the opposite result, so it’s nice to win one.

FWIW - Below, find the standings for the first 3 weeks; and in a day or two I’ll be posting the Limper Team Power Rankings, as well team rankings for offensive and defensive units, special teams and QB rankings.

GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

The Offensive/Defensive ranks need no explanation. However, the model produces two Power Rankings: the one on the left is pretty conventional, using the averages of the win/loss record, strength of opposition, and statistical ranking, combined in a C-Average – used to rank the teams. The Power Ranking on the right imposes a value weight on each factor, depending on degree of difficulty determined by the opposition, and again combined in a C-Average.

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]