And then there were two. St. Louis looks to win a 2nd Super Bowl in 3 years and begin staking a claim in the firmament of all-time great teams. New England looks to cap an improbable season with an upset of historic proportions. Both teams have been squarely on the radar screens and under the microscopes. So, who's it going to be? On this stage, on this surface, with these matchups and with this pointspread, I'll be taking my chances with St. Louis.
The Rams look focused and relaxed in their preparations. If the Rams are as keyed up for this game as I expect they will be, it would take some team or some effort or both to deny them the culmination of their season as the true team of destiny. And I look for it to happen with the Ram's customary explosiveness, efficiency and superiority. And I'm hoping that's good enough to meet the challenge of a 14-point impost.
I suspect Coach Bill Belichick and his staff have given their team an ingenious game plan, and to a man I suspect the Patriots believe they can win with that plan. But I'm confidently thinking that a post season tilt against St. Louis is nothing like facing Cowher, Kordell and the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is no doubt the Patriots "have replaced their image as a soft team to one built on guts, hard work, and strength in the midst of adversity." If New England stems the tide on Sunday through five, then six, and then the next changes of possession, then the moment could build for one hell of a gut check finish. But that is one big set of ifs. I'm thinking Coach Mike Martz knows he is riding a thoroughbred that will show its class in The Big Show. But even if New England has some success in controlling the Rams diverse attack and dictating certain aspects of the game, the Rams will eventually hurt the Patriots on the scoreboard. And then it will take some amazing combination of circumstances for New England to get it done, a lot more than red zone defense and physical play.
The Rams No. 3 ranked defense has come up with timely big plays all year long. Now it looks as though St. Louis has taken it to another level and is creating mayhem for opposing teams. Only the singular talents of QB McNabb made for a contest in either of the Ram's playoff games.
New England has woes scoring offensive touchdowns against playoff caliber teams. While New England will have to go to RB Antwain Smith for the obvious reasons, he is not a feature back that is likely to inflict serious damage. The play of QB Tom Brady has been compelling. Assuming he is healthy, what Brady could really use in this game is a stronger arsenal of weapons. The speed of this game is likely to force Brady to make decisive throws beyond his comfort level. Regardless, it looks to me that the advantages are squarely with the Rams, who will adjust if necessary and dictate plenty to the New England offense.
The Eagle's special teams are rock solid. Last week it looked to me like the underachieving Ram's special teams units took it to their counterparts on the Eagles more than the other way around, in just a further example of the Ram's speed and intensity coming through as the games get bigger. It would seem the Patriots need to gain a big edge here against a supposed weak link of the Rams, but it would not surprise me if it fails to materialize.
Then there is St. Louis on offense. The first game between these teams was a high profile Sunday night game that had all the angles working in the home team's favor. My 11/18/01 post in this forum stated, "The only 'cold weather' game for St. Louis is also on grass and features an interesting opponent...an excellent spot for a little wager...taking New England(+7.5) @ 1*." Without a tape to pop in the VCR, I'm forced to rely on my recollection and the stats. A case could be made that the game was a microcosm of the season for both teams: New England showed character and grit, and St. Louis showed its superiority. I remember New England sending people all game long and from everywhere, but Marshall Faulk evaded them in the backfield and I believe Kurt Warner was sacked only twice in 42 attempts. On the carpet, I think Belichick will have to be considerably more restrained, like the Eagles felt forced to be last week.
St. Louis is 16-0 this year when the team does not commit at least 6 turnovers. I haven't seen the carelessness or trepidation in their recent play that would suggest incredulous mistakes will be an issue on Super Sunday.
Horses for courses. Some teams are road warriors, others can't be beat at home. The Packers can't function in a dome, and the Rams love the turf. Against any opponent that turf looks to be worth about a touchdown to the Rams. And team speed is in no way a forte of the Patriots squad. And this dome just happens to be very familiar territory for the Rams.
In RB Marshall Faulk and CB Aeneas Williams, the Rams have two playmaking stars and team leaders that are native sons returning home for the biggest football game there is. Not unlike Brett Favre in Super Bowl XXXI, or Donovan McNabb's recent trip to Chicago. No way that storyline provides an angle that helps the Patriots.
The players and coaches for St. Louis have singled out New England for weeks as the team that played them as well as any, and was physical in doing so. Perhaps the appreciation and respect acquired by the Rams in that game will work to their advantage, an exception to the stated preference of Mike Martz to face a team that hasn't been on the field with all of the Ram's speedy weapons.
If my numbers are correct, 20 of 35 Super Bowls have been decided by 14 points or more, and only 9 of 35 have been decided by 7 points or less. Other post season and championship games are often one-sided as well. Sometimes there is just too much of a mismatch between the opponents. Sometimes one team spends too much emotional capital just getting to the games, or arrives with too much momentum to be stopped. Sometimes it is tried and true experience besting a young team and the painful learning curve that is often their destiny. Sometimes character and grit take a team a long way before a better team puts them down. There had better be no let up in these games, and sometimes one team will pour it on until there is no possible doubt. Some desperation-fueled rallies end up with disastrous results. Regardless, this game has several of the earmarks of a championship game rout.
I keep finding myself saying, "Too much Rams," but I have considered other possibilities.
IF QB Kurt Warner goes down, there is not a playoff tested Pro Bowler on the bench to get the job done. But I wouldn't want to have a wager on any team that had something of cataclysmic proportions transpire.
The Rams have not been ringing up points like a pinball machine or scoring from long distance like the reputation that precedes them. I think they'll be fine.
I have already been wrong aboput this game. When the line opened at Rams(-14.5), I thought it was on its way to -16 or -17. Instead, it settled comfortably at -14. New England is not getting overlooked.
I have plenty I could say about the Patriots success.
---New England believes in what they are doing, and they do it extremely well.
---The Patriots may be lacking the Ram's weapons, but they have been unflappable for weeks and to a man, and the poise and purpose they play with on the field can also be sensed in how they conduct themselves off the field. When QB Drew Bledsoe is the poster boy for being a good soldier, then this team has something worth noticing.
---There are more reasons to find (and miss) by looking at some fairly interesting matchups and scenarios.
But, there isn't enough there for me to change my mind or my instincts. I never fail to see St. Louis winning this game, and it's for the same reasons that I see the Rams more likely than not covering the 14-point spread.
I can appreciate the value others see in New England. St. Louis has earned my money.
The Rams look focused and relaxed in their preparations. If the Rams are as keyed up for this game as I expect they will be, it would take some team or some effort or both to deny them the culmination of their season as the true team of destiny. And I look for it to happen with the Ram's customary explosiveness, efficiency and superiority. And I'm hoping that's good enough to meet the challenge of a 14-point impost.
I suspect Coach Bill Belichick and his staff have given their team an ingenious game plan, and to a man I suspect the Patriots believe they can win with that plan. But I'm confidently thinking that a post season tilt against St. Louis is nothing like facing Cowher, Kordell and the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is no doubt the Patriots "have replaced their image as a soft team to one built on guts, hard work, and strength in the midst of adversity." If New England stems the tide on Sunday through five, then six, and then the next changes of possession, then the moment could build for one hell of a gut check finish. But that is one big set of ifs. I'm thinking Coach Mike Martz knows he is riding a thoroughbred that will show its class in The Big Show. But even if New England has some success in controlling the Rams diverse attack and dictating certain aspects of the game, the Rams will eventually hurt the Patriots on the scoreboard. And then it will take some amazing combination of circumstances for New England to get it done, a lot more than red zone defense and physical play.
The Rams No. 3 ranked defense has come up with timely big plays all year long. Now it looks as though St. Louis has taken it to another level and is creating mayhem for opposing teams. Only the singular talents of QB McNabb made for a contest in either of the Ram's playoff games.
New England has woes scoring offensive touchdowns against playoff caliber teams. While New England will have to go to RB Antwain Smith for the obvious reasons, he is not a feature back that is likely to inflict serious damage. The play of QB Tom Brady has been compelling. Assuming he is healthy, what Brady could really use in this game is a stronger arsenal of weapons. The speed of this game is likely to force Brady to make decisive throws beyond his comfort level. Regardless, it looks to me that the advantages are squarely with the Rams, who will adjust if necessary and dictate plenty to the New England offense.
The Eagle's special teams are rock solid. Last week it looked to me like the underachieving Ram's special teams units took it to their counterparts on the Eagles more than the other way around, in just a further example of the Ram's speed and intensity coming through as the games get bigger. It would seem the Patriots need to gain a big edge here against a supposed weak link of the Rams, but it would not surprise me if it fails to materialize.
Then there is St. Louis on offense. The first game between these teams was a high profile Sunday night game that had all the angles working in the home team's favor. My 11/18/01 post in this forum stated, "The only 'cold weather' game for St. Louis is also on grass and features an interesting opponent...an excellent spot for a little wager...taking New England(+7.5) @ 1*." Without a tape to pop in the VCR, I'm forced to rely on my recollection and the stats. A case could be made that the game was a microcosm of the season for both teams: New England showed character and grit, and St. Louis showed its superiority. I remember New England sending people all game long and from everywhere, but Marshall Faulk evaded them in the backfield and I believe Kurt Warner was sacked only twice in 42 attempts. On the carpet, I think Belichick will have to be considerably more restrained, like the Eagles felt forced to be last week.
St. Louis is 16-0 this year when the team does not commit at least 6 turnovers. I haven't seen the carelessness or trepidation in their recent play that would suggest incredulous mistakes will be an issue on Super Sunday.
Horses for courses. Some teams are road warriors, others can't be beat at home. The Packers can't function in a dome, and the Rams love the turf. Against any opponent that turf looks to be worth about a touchdown to the Rams. And team speed is in no way a forte of the Patriots squad. And this dome just happens to be very familiar territory for the Rams.
In RB Marshall Faulk and CB Aeneas Williams, the Rams have two playmaking stars and team leaders that are native sons returning home for the biggest football game there is. Not unlike Brett Favre in Super Bowl XXXI, or Donovan McNabb's recent trip to Chicago. No way that storyline provides an angle that helps the Patriots.
The players and coaches for St. Louis have singled out New England for weeks as the team that played them as well as any, and was physical in doing so. Perhaps the appreciation and respect acquired by the Rams in that game will work to their advantage, an exception to the stated preference of Mike Martz to face a team that hasn't been on the field with all of the Ram's speedy weapons.
If my numbers are correct, 20 of 35 Super Bowls have been decided by 14 points or more, and only 9 of 35 have been decided by 7 points or less. Other post season and championship games are often one-sided as well. Sometimes there is just too much of a mismatch between the opponents. Sometimes one team spends too much emotional capital just getting to the games, or arrives with too much momentum to be stopped. Sometimes it is tried and true experience besting a young team and the painful learning curve that is often their destiny. Sometimes character and grit take a team a long way before a better team puts them down. There had better be no let up in these games, and sometimes one team will pour it on until there is no possible doubt. Some desperation-fueled rallies end up with disastrous results. Regardless, this game has several of the earmarks of a championship game rout.
I keep finding myself saying, "Too much Rams," but I have considered other possibilities.
IF QB Kurt Warner goes down, there is not a playoff tested Pro Bowler on the bench to get the job done. But I wouldn't want to have a wager on any team that had something of cataclysmic proportions transpire.
The Rams have not been ringing up points like a pinball machine or scoring from long distance like the reputation that precedes them. I think they'll be fine.
I have already been wrong aboput this game. When the line opened at Rams(-14.5), I thought it was on its way to -16 or -17. Instead, it settled comfortably at -14. New England is not getting overlooked.
I have plenty I could say about the Patriots success.
---New England believes in what they are doing, and they do it extremely well.
---The Patriots may be lacking the Ram's weapons, but they have been unflappable for weeks and to a man, and the poise and purpose they play with on the field can also be sensed in how they conduct themselves off the field. When QB Drew Bledsoe is the poster boy for being a good soldier, then this team has something worth noticing.
---There are more reasons to find (and miss) by looking at some fairly interesting matchups and scenarios.
But, there isn't enough there for me to change my mind or my instincts. I never fail to see St. Louis winning this game, and it's for the same reasons that I see the Rams more likely than not covering the 14-point spread.
I can appreciate the value others see in New England. St. Louis has earned my money.
