the markets

[selkirk]

have sold some positons, some of my stocks have hit stops, so I sold.

here are some of the latest trades

TCK.b TCK own less of this stock actually, have traded, stated before to buy low 40s and sell high 40s.

well last Friday loss some had a $40 cdn. call, it closed at 40.90cdn. received 4.40 for the call.

however also had a 42 put on the stock, the stock was put to me at 42. should have just bought it back.

so now I have half the positon of TCK (last week), sold 42 feb calls, on the stock. at under 39 good value however this stock is not acting well, and the market is looking to sell off base metal stocks.

will probably buy puts or close out the position.

Gold, I thought when gold broke below 800 it was headed to 725-730. yesterday it sat at 775.
dropping like a stone.
I only own a few gold stocks however if the US drops rates gold could rally more......

it is becoming clear that other central banks will lower their rates if the US does.

Oil is stronger than I thought it would be, thought it would be dumped along with the other resources....however making a strong run at 100. still going to reduce my energy position, still like the sector just want to reduce some of my larger positions.

Natural gas could get ugly if we do not have an average winter or colder....so be carefull on these positions.

base metals, zinc and copper are dropping, so should reduce positons or hedge them, they are very cheap and may get even cheaper.... soon will be great buys.

techs are holding up well, was stopped out of Rimm, however may buy back and looking at Micorsoft.

reduciing my financials, do not own any US financials except GS, and that is close to my stop.
Cdn. financials have reduced by half.

what worries me about this market is there are several companies I follow that had great (okay good) numbers, and they just drift lower. no one cares.

own companies that may beat on earings and raise dividends sharply and the stock will still go down because the revenue number was slightly lower.

or earning missed by one cent and the stock just goes lower..... the market is now just pushing everything lower....it seems.... well most.... techs have held up well....or better.

in this enviroment I will sit on the sidelines, all of my long positions have calls on them, to hedge the positions.... even any puts that I have sold have uncovered calls on at higher prices..... (that may be a dumb idea, but it works as a good hedge in most cases. in smaller cases an example of stupidity.

during the sell off in August someone I knew asked me about the market and I just told him to sit on the sideliines and wait.... do not try to pick a bottom....

when the makret recovers there will be plenty of time and cheap stocks to buy.... going to watch for now....

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ditto Here--Had about half my stocks sell on stops-forunately most were early. Several were financials
BAC-BCS-CORS-AINV. Will prob considering buying these back at some period in time.

so far no China portfolio stocks sold however AAUK getting close.


Will do small update when I get back from Holidays-as headed to parents in Missouri in a few hours.

 

[selkirk]

DTB overall I hate to have a large cash position, though in the future I should have a larger percentage of cash than in the past.

for the most part my cash positon is lower than 15%, often lower than 10%.

December is a good month for the markets, time will tell if more subprime news comes out to sideswipe the markets.

also the US fed will lower rates, so Europe and Cdn. should follow, this trend should continue in Jan. and most banks may lower rates 50 basis points. this should help the markets......

so hopefully it is a short term correction, and not the start of a bear market.

Stocks. These trade in Cdn. on Toronto...and make up some of my (income yielding portfolio.)
they will not rally as sharply as gold, resources or tech, however like the income they provide.

1. CHL.un this is the helicopter stock brought up during the last correction, low 8, high 12.30
closed 11.85

this stock has not fallen as sharply as in August, a great buying opportunity, however the results have been great, and they have raised their dividend (paid monthly).

now yields 9.31%. probably will tade flat however a 9% yield is not bad.


2. Boston pizza also mentioned in August.
have bought some at $14.40, closed at 14.06. yields 9.82%.

the chain had sales increases of over 6%. also open more restuarants. hoping trades up to 15. good monthly div.... should have been more patient on this stock. though have traded it well in the past, have to see if 14.40 was a good buy.

stop 13.50

3. CWT.un cdn. reits have been dumped, at the start of the year they would trade at 1.30-1.50 of their NAV.

now they trade below NAV. at the start of the year, they were fully valued, and probably over priced.

CWT.un trades below NAV .85, yields 6.90% annual y (monthly div), and has growing FFO (funds from operations), with plenty of on going developments.

high quaulity properties, with 99% occuapancy.
the downside it is retail, and retail is hated, also cdn. are starting to cross the border to the US to shop (take advantage of the mighty Loonie).

still good stock 22.45. bought some at 22.75.


two of the stocks down on and one have a profit.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

--a liitle help when you have time Kirk.

After stoploss sales, appears outside china stocks and a few other adr's I any now extremely top heavy in shipping and metals/mining and would like your opinion on a couple--currently have small loss on one and small gain on other but both pay very good div.However the stocks have had recent fundemental changes and with merger on one
---CANETIC RESOURCES TR (NYSE:CNE)
--and the other being delisted to pink sheets
--NORSK HYDRO ADR (Other OTC:NHYDY.PK)

--any thoughts on either?

 

[selkirk]

DTB cannot tell you much about NHYDY, had an unrelated company in Canada.

Canetic was a product of two oil/gas income trusts, one being Aclaim which I owned a few years back. it was a great winner paid out 18%+, monthly div.

not only that people chased yield so it went up to so it was around a 10% yield. they did a reverse split, so the stock went from $4 to over 10, however that worked and attracted larger instituions, the stock quickly rallied.

sold my Aclaim before the merger and never bought Canetic. Most people liked the merger, however was unsure and had a huge gain so looked elsewhere.

I actually own a small (small) positon of PWt.un which is mergering with CNE, though I only have a small loss on the stock for the year consider the stock a mistake, will list my mistakes at the end of the year.

invested eariler and made a great gain (50%+) then bought back in lower.....mistake.

these companies have decent management, however without the merger there would have been a small distribution cut for Pwt.un (probably).
also believe CNE would have cut their div...by a small amount.

At over $95 oil that may seem insane however natural gas is hurting in Canada (hurting...love those financial terms...lol.)...

anyways the dollar cdn. has gone up to par, no more 30% discount this hurts, sell in US and expenses in Cdn. also costs for everything in the oil patch are going up.... should be said that these will moderate since there is a fall off in natural gas drilling.

posted about energy trusts before and rated them a sell or hold except for Cresent point Energy.

Cresent is mainly just a light oil play and that has gone up, (amazing in this market), yields far less, under 10% compared to 16 and 14%, for CNE, and PWT. however this div is safe.

Cresent trades on Toronto would rate it a hold here, over 24, though anything below 22 would look at buying it, was trading around 18-21.

the merger will be positive for both companies (that is what is believed), the company PWT will have 200K Barrels a day in production, and 800million in reserves, also a large land position (though they have not taken advantage of this in the past).

short term believe CNE, and PWT.un are showing signs of weakness, however might be a good long term invesment.

SHort term : sell/hold
med term long term: hold buy.

believe it will go down or stay flat in the short term. however if the merger works should be able to create value for unit holders.

note: own Cresent
and PWT.un thogh have $30 Jan calls on the stock. so if the stock hits $30 I lose the stock, currently 27.38. got .50 a share for the call.

also get a .34 div a month from PWt.un, so will hold for now.

note: would not have a large position in any trust at this point in time.

thanks
selkirk

 

[deportes]

Selkirk,
What do you think about Calpine Corp. energy producing company that is trying to come out of bankruptcy. Could it be good buy in the near future? I know PG&E became a good buy after being bankrupt.
Thanks.

 

[selkirk]

Deportes Calpine was an interesting company, they also bought (spent ) a large amount of money on natural gas in Canada.

the current shares are worthless, (most likely ) worthless have no idea they are trading for .70 or sometimes a dollar. the bond holders will get the money.

after BK in Jan or Feb, it would be worth a look, the company just ran up to large of debt believeing that power prices would continue to go higher.

probably a good company to watch or buy in Jan feb, after the process, would hold off if the economic news gets worse; in the US.

the market
well two strong days, have not bought much, did add slightly to VWO (emerging markets etf), more of a long term play.

did not buy any US Financials (the fed sounds like it will cut, benifit my portfolio, wether is should could be debated).

BMO posted about this a few times, and the fears of a brutal 4th quarter. well the bank of montreal reported a drop in profits however much small than feared. they also believe earnings will grow 10-15%.

I own BMO, BNS, and CM in DRIP/SPP plans.

in my trading accounts, after the news bought TD, BNS, CM. BMO help the cdn. banks to rally and would be a good buy here if you believe they can grow 10-15%.

prefer CM (which also got beat up), TD great retail, and BNS (Canada Int. bank) with no US exposure.

only US financial I own is GS, which I bought back during the rally.

will slowly reduce cash position, however still worried, about the short term, I mean if the fed does not cut look out below.

thanks
selkirk

 

[kneifl]

What do you guys think of VIP. It's a russian cell phone stock. I think it may be a good emerging markets play. Has sound fundamentals from what I have read on it.

kneifl

 

[selkirk]

update on the stocks mentioned at 11-23

these are defensive short term trades, though could be held longer.

1. CHL.un 11.85 now 12.50 counting the div return 6.26%

2. BPF.un $14.06 now 13.99 counting the div +0.32%

3. CWT.un 22.45 now 24.44 counting the div +9.43%

would reduce the positon in chl.un by about half, it could dip below 12. though has been acting well.

Bpf.un, the volume or lack of it, concerns me, still a good business, and holding around $14. will keep position.

CWT.un like all reit CWT.un has recovered and it is still atractive, however would sell 25-50%, good chance it trades down to 23-24 range. anything below 23.50 is a buy.
the stock could break over 25.

Kneifl have never heard of the stock will have to look at it, in the past I have avoided any Russian stocks. the economy is growing and is healthy (thanks to oil), and gas.

in the past year or two the amount of crime seems to be on the decline.... in the past that is the main reason avoided the country was no credible legal system.

ie. in the 1990s 53 of the top business men met in Moscow....less than two years only 3 were still alive. hard to conduct business when your number one fear is being shot. though the situation has improved greatly, hard to get worse.

CM may have small 10 billion problem, will keep the bank in my DRIP and SPP but do not have it in any trading accounts....got stopped out, and then they had the 10 billion suprise for shareholders.

of the cdn. banks (will go over their earnings in another thread) thought BNS was the best. the stock did not do much however that is not bad for a financial (considering others in the last 6 months.)

thanks
selkirk

 

[deportes]

Selkirk, what is your opinion about CPN now that it emerged from chapter 11?
Thanks.

 

[baby johnson]

sellkirk, i'd like your thoughts on:

shfl

c

csco

jci

mot

f :scared

hmc

tm


i know some have sucked lately, but i'm looking more lmoderately-ong term anyway (2+ yrs)


thanks I truly respect and appreciate your opinion

 

[selkirk]

looking back at this thread will have to do an overall update as have sold some of these positions, some kept. the markets are volatile, but will start a new thread, it is amazing the swing stocks can go through in a few months, (more like days/weeks).

BJ
SHFL
the chart looks terrible on this stock, would also be concerned how some of their patents hold up. Stock looks cheap but would want to see if trading higher and more certainty about their numbers.
high 26.41 low 7.70 close 8.87
stock has to act better

C
I posted on this board that thought it could make 10%, that was high 30s. this stock should always do better, great global franchise, and global footprint.

managment has done a dreadfull job on risk management, maybe C is toooo big and should be broken up, so that management can watch over the business.

it is like a great sportscar however management has just learned how to drive, and they could hit another tree. do not believe it will go to zero, however may be to early and when they announce it is ussually bad news.

would wait,....a trend here...also would look at the preferred. there are preferred that pay 8% on C, and if trouble hits, you are ahead of the shareholders. also you get 8% and if C and the fianancials rally you probably get 20% for the year.

note: C is high risk....amazing...they are however.

CSCO
low 21.77 high 34.24 close 23.29
looking at buying this stock, however there is no rush, earnings were decent/good, however the outlook was grim. since they generate so much cash and it is hard for a company this size to grow at a fast rate, wish they would begin a div.

companies with large cash flow, and cash on the balance sheet can afford to pay dividends.
do not care for techs however may own this, valuation is not bad, just waiting for a sale.
may write a covered call when I buy the position.

JCI
good company in a weak sector.... still 1.50% yield and growing earnings..... concerned about the economy has on their business but worth watching and maybe small position, especially on weakness.

MOT
always preferred Nokia, unlike JCI like the sector hate the company. there are investors (large ones who see value in the company, and want to even split the company in two). yield 1.80%, should make money, well next year, maybe this year. the deal with Nortel is not bad as they can cut costs, however this is very competitive and brutal, also they are not leader in the group.

the wirelss division is where the avlue, have just seen dropping sales to nokia and samsung....
mot has value and could do great, however for now it is a turnaround with many questions.

a type of stock would like to pay 10% more and have some questions and problems answered.

the final three are HMC Honda, TM toyota, and F. now have been negative for the most part on the big three (North American). however though GM did fall, had a good year last year stock wise and missed it.

F, and GM are doing well, on a global basis however much of their earnings revenue are from North America. GM had good global numbers but the important north american market was grisly....terrible....ect.

F soldl Aston Martin, and question selling some of these lines that offer prestige,and profits....I mean is selling profitalbe lines smart long term.

however after years of idiot moron managment F needed the money, to survive the next 2-3 years. and bring out a new product line.

it all depends on the next product line, they will need to turn around north America. also have concern over the F-150 which is been the company saver.

you have Honda, Toyota coming into the space and even dropping their prices. also chrysler and GM with new products. and presure on truck sales with high fuel prices.
so would not buy Ford at this time, have to see more of their products....new management has done many things correctly except sell, the most of the premier diviision, especially Aston, why sell profitbal division.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

main concern with Toyota is their are cutting some of their prices, will post about this later, however in Canada their are cutting prices back to 1997 levels and some of their biggest models.

concern is North american market,...a theme. still earnigns are slowly growing to flat.and at PE under 12 not expensive.... around 110 would slowly build a position, you may get some close to or even below $100.

good company, in a tough sector.

Honda lastest earnings were great, great, great...just...okay.
with Honda much of their sales come from the US (okay North America) and a weak US $ compared to the YEN, effects the company.

the company is great, and you even get a 2.60% yield...my concerns are.
if the US has no growth then prices will be under presure.
also if the fed drops 50 basis points in March, and maybe more going forward (how can they drop much more after non core inflation is rising...well), still may put pressure on the US $ going down.

would look at buying HMC and Toyotal slowly, maybe wait to see how price cuts, may get them cheaper, especially hmc if US $ dollar weakens.

end of novel.lol.
thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

Deportes, actually would rate it a buy, would buy a small amount (until I get more info, and they put out some more performance numbers).

always like CPN just not their heavy debt, now that is not an issue..... so small buy.

set a stop 20%. ect.

thanks
selkirk

 

[baby johnson]

thanks a bunch sellkirk, have been very cautious as of late fo similar reasons on mot, c, and f. will wait for new line as you suggest

shfl is poised for long term leases ans have some new/products and games coming out soon. just think the priceis sooo sweet under $10..may be wrong however

thanks again, really appreciate the help

bj's for everyone :00hour :00hour :mj07:

 

[deportes]

Thanks for your response silkirk.:SIB