Round 1 plays (4pts):
Steve Stricker to beat Webb Simpson -110 @ Sportingbet
Simpson broke 70 in rd1 last week for the first time in over two months, but then followed it with rounds of 73-77-77, so this was clearly not a return to form. And with a record of finishing 44th-mc in his two previous appearances here, there is little to suggest that he will contend in this year's Masters. Stricker has made the cut in each of the last five years here, including three top-20 finishes so he is more capable of contending. And with a h2h strokeplay record that reads 12-2-0 in his favour since the start of last season, there is very reason to expect him to beat Simpson this week.
Jason Dufner to beat Ian Poulter -109 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes]
Poulter has had a poor year to date, finishing in the top-40 just once in six strokeplay events (and he exited the WGC World Matchplay in the 1st round). He does have a good record here, but in this form, it looks more likely that he will repeat last year's missed cut than his previous six top-30 finishes. For Dufner, he has yet to miss a cut this year or in his last nine Major Championships and in his three previous Masters appearances, he has finished in the top-30 every time. One final stat in favour of this matchup with a particularly emphasis on this round: Poulter has shot the lower rd1 score just once in their last ten common strokeplay events.
Hideki Matsuyama to beat Branden Grace +100 @ 5Dimes
Every reason to oppose Grace this week. In his last six events, he has finished: missed cut - rd1 exit from the WGC World Matchplay - 40th in a limited field, no cut event - missed cut - MDF (made cut, didn't finish) - and missed cut last week by eight shots. He did finish 18th last year, but he had already secured three top-10 finishes that year so his form/confidence is very different this time around. Matsuyama hasn't played since the Cadillac Championship, but he had showed very good form up to, and including, that event and he has made the cut in both his previous two visits, so he is not playing as a course debutant as he has done virtually all year. I don't understand why he would be the underdog in this matchup.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Matsuyama tb Dubuisson -110; Donald tb Spieth -110]
