The "Phantom P.I. Crew" (bet the over?)

[JD]

"PI" as in pass interference.

Similar to Nolan, one of my biggest peaves with the marginal-at-best NFL officiating is with that damn pass interference rule. The interpretations vary wildly, are inconsistantly enforced, and are often very marginal or outright wrong when called. Often it seems that a receiver initiates contact, hangs on to the defender and then drops to the ground if the pass looks to be out of reach. Some officials seem to fall for this tactic every time, especially favoring the home team if they are losing. The defender could have established position, is facing the ball and ready to intercept it when the receiver bumps him and falls down. Out comes the Yellow flag against the defense. It can be a real "under" killer among other things.

In watching the New England/New Orleans game yeterday I noticed that the lead official who does the "announcing" of the penalties to the crowd & camera, looked a little familiar for some reason. A few minutes later it hit me as a yellow flag went flying for yet another pass interference call that seemed to come from nothing other than the fact that the receiver looked awkward in missing a long pass attempt.

I thought, "could it be"?

It looked like the same officiating crew who killed my under bet in Tampa Bay the week before against Chicago. When TB got down by a couple scores, these phantom flags began flying everywhere. In the NE/NO game yesterday, I counted at least 3 of the 4-5 P.I. calls were not even close to accurate. In the TB/Chic game there was a similar margin of error, as I perceive it anyway.

The only bet I had on the game yesterday was with NE to win, so I'm not bitter about the calls at all. But before betting an under in the future, I sure would like to know that this crew is not officiating the game! (heck, if it WAS the same crew as in TB, I still could be wrong) I am not sure where I could get officiating schedules to find out, but I sure would like to put some study into certain officiating crews versus the O/U. (similar to umpires and the O/U in baseball, based on the ump's personal perception of a large or small strike zone, thus affecting the number of balls called vs strikes, ie. favoring the pitching or batting in a given game?).

As I said, I'm not even sure if it even was the same crew, but I think it was, and I sure would like to find out for sure.

So, my question is this, How can I find out what crew worked these game-examples above? How can I find out who worked certain games in past weeks and who is scheduled to work upcoming games?

Does anyone think this is worthy info, or am I just imagining things?

Thanks and good luck.

[This message has been edited by JD (edited 11-26-2001).]

 

[Nolan Dalla]

JD, that was a great post. I would like to thank you for making a very persuasive argument about NFL officiating. I would like to approach it on TWO fronts:

First, I really do believe we should use whatever powers we have (which are admittedly limited, but don't underestimate the readership of this forum, nor the passion of football bettors) to pressure the league to change the pass interference rule. Not that I expect anything to happen quickly, but I will write an essay on this topic soon and will explain WHY the pass interferance rule is killing the integrity of many of these games. There's no revolt yet, but I do think it's building. Fans MUST be convinced these games are played fairly and the best team will win on the field of play -- not by virtue of a 62-year old part-timer standing 40 yards away throwing a late yellow flag. When the game turns into a flagfest (DEN-WASH last week, NWE-NOR this week, the DET-GB debacle on Thursday), you can see that fans get annoyed. I see it everywhere. In sports bars. In stadiums. I haven't heard from a single person that thinks these officials are doing a good job. My theory is that the referees are so embittered at losing their contract dispute with the NFL earlier this year that many don't care about the ramifications of this lax attitude, and the quality of officiating is suffering. I seriously suspect there may have even been some discussion behind the scenes by officials who privately hope that public pressure on the league will FORCE the NFL make referees full-time employees and raise up the pay scales. The officiating so horrendous on many of these games, that there can't possibly be any other explanation. This idea comes from watching games where I was both the loser and beneficiary of bad officiating -- so I think I can speak somewhat objectively. Of course, the worst example of the referees' negative impact on games is the pass interference rule and it's inconsistent enforcement. I am quite militant about sports, and I'd like to see fans take things into their own hands about this. If this kind of nonsense went on in a European soccer match, the referees wouldn't get out of the stadium alive, and FIFA would have to cave into public pressure to make some changes. That's why you rarely see soccer referees deciding the outcome of a big international match. They'd burn the stadium down. But, it happens in the NFL all the time. At least one NFL game seems to be decided by questionable officating every single week. In Europe, the fans wouldn't stand for this shit. They would riot. My o' my, how I wish we were more like the Europeans (yes, I'm serious).

The second question is also a very good one. HOW CAN WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOUSY OFFICIATING? Can we make money from thier incompetence? I think the previous post has the right outlook -- that OVERS are helped significantly by the lax pass interference rule. Teams that throw long and often seem to get at least a couple of extra flags per game. Ground-oriented offenses simply do into enough situations where they can take advantage of soft pass interference calls. I would like to run some numbers on this and if I find anything out (or someone else comes up with some numbers) it should be posted to this forum for all to see. I suspect that there is also something to tracking the officiating crews vis-a-vis totals. For exmaple, Johnny Greer calls more holding penalties than any official I've ever seen (he's the black official). WHen I visualize Greer, I see him in his natural state -- one hand clasped above his wrist, and moving both arms downward. HOLDING! That's good for the UNDER. Dick Hanteck's (the white-haired fossil who looks like Leslie Neilson) crew calls pass interference anytime there is contact of any kind. He's a great OVER official -- especially in domes or with good offenses. I'd be interested in other observations about officiating crews. I know there are patterns -- that some crews like to permit the game to flow naturally (the good guys), while others (the idiots) try to control the game to the greatest extent possible. These prunes seems to think that if they aren't throwing flags, they aren't doing their jobs.

As I said, I would like to make some money from this angle, but I would much prefer to handicap games based ont he talent of the two teams rather than trying to psychoanalyze a brain-dead zebra making $1200 a game.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[gsp]

Just tell me who the ref is before the game and I'll take it from there.

 

[JD]

Thanks for your lengthy and heartfelt reply Nolan. I thought I might hear from you on this subject. First thing I want to do is protect my assets (or lack there-of this year!

), then take it from there.

I want to be able to take into consideration when betting the O/U in ANY games that certain officials are working in.

I haven't had time to look this over yet, but here's a link to the official NFL game ref web site. When I get a chance, I'll dig deeper and see if we can find some schedules. From there it get's easy. We'll just have to compare the crews with the O/U results in the past games they've worked!

Here's the link, I'll do more more later...
http://members.tripod.com/refereestats/index2.htm

 

[wigs]

great post, JD, i really appreciate you taking the time to write this. i really think that info would be of great importance. a buddy of mine,texasbc6, and myself have been posting hockey refs when we come across it because just like football, i believe there is value in knowing which 2 refs are working a particular hockey game when playing the total. the reason being a lot of the new guys are sticklers in enforcing the NHL's new and liberal policy of calling penalties. and when you have games with 15 power plays versus games with 6 or 7 well, that very much could be the difference in an over or an under. point being, i think it would be another great piece of info to have before game time and we will try to keep on posting it in the hockey forum when we get it. until pass interference becomes a 15 yd penalty like in college football, the officiating crew definitely controls an important part of the game. no doubt in my mind that a forum of this stature should be able to acquire such information before gametime. and i would love to see it! good luck to all, keep up the great work!!!

 

[JD]

Thanks.

I only hope that we can come up with a pattern. Not to use exclusively for wager decisions of course, only to include as part of our handicapping on a given game.

That link above DOES have the referee schedules. Unfortunately, I was wrong about the same crew working both games which I mentioned above. Regardless, the point is still valid. Now all we need is a software database guru to plug in the referee crew info (& penalties called per game) into already exisiting stats on which games that have gone Over & Under versus the number this year and see what it spits out for a query. (ie. which ref crews call the most penalties and whether they are "Over crews", "Under crews" or "Neutral factors")

I suppose we could get the number of penalties called for each game from any sports site like ESPN.com and plug it into the game database.

Anyone?

 

[fox 40]

Ron Blum the golf pro could be the white hat tonight - I didn't see him officiating over the weekend.

 

[wigs]

using the link you provided, JD, it lists 17 crews. there were a total of 14 games this week(2 on thurs, 12 on sun) after reviewing usa today box scores, the three crews that did not officiate a game were ron blum, ed hochuli and bob mcelwee.

 

[JD]

The way this crazy season has gone, I could really use an edge to help recoup some of my losses! And sides are becomming pretty risky.

OK, now all we need is someone with an existing database that contains all the NFL games and the O/U results so far for 2001 season. I know there are plenty of system-guys out there that have this already in hand. We then take the past 2001 schedule info on the ref link and enter it into the database. Then we're ready to go. Finally, we query the "ref" catagory in our expanded database and see who the "over" refs are, and who the "under" refs are and take note for this season.

Whoever has the database can share that info here for us to use and we can maintain the info and reference it for the rest of the year ourselves. You can do it in old fasioned paper notebooks if need be. Also, the database guy gets an added category all set to go for himself to use in his existing NFL database.

Again, obviously you have to take the teams and playing conditions under consideration when handicapping.

So, an example. Say you have a game you're leaning, uh, "over" on.....the total is stitting below a key number, call it 36 since the game is being played in Buffalo and you never know with the weather up there. You get up on Sunday and the weather report for Buffalo says "unseasonably mild" with little or no wind. (yeah, right!) You check the ref schedule on their website, then compare it with your handy little ref O/U stats. You find that the crew working the game has called 8 overs and 2 unders this year. Hmmmmm, now what can you deduce from this? Buffalo has nothing to lose and is still trying to establish that west coast offensive scheme. Number seems a bit low, no? Must be past public perception keeping the number down since the game is IN Buffalo IN December. Nolan just made this "Over" his BEST BET for the week!

Now, has this become a useful tool in conjunction with your other weekly considerations?

I'd be willing to help by transferring the Ref/game data to a MS or Lotus spreadsheet and e-mail it to our helpful database volunteer.

For giggles, Here's last week's results:

Referee Game Time
Jeff Triplette #42 Green Bay vs. Detroit Thanksgiving Day Game 12:30 pm: OVER

Tom White #123 Denver vs. Dallas Thanksgiving Day Game 4:00 pm: OVER

Tony Corrente #99 Atlanta vs. Carolina 1:00 pm: (uh, actually, I'm not quite sure about this one)

Ron Winter #14 Cincinnati vs. Cleveland 1:00 pm: UNDER

Terry McAulay #77 Miami vs. Buffalo 1:00 pm: OVER

Bill Leavy #127 Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee 1:00 pm: OVER

Mike Carey #94 Seattle vs. Kansas City 1:00 pm: UNDER

Bernie Kukar #86 San Francisco vs. Indianapolis 1:00 pm: OVER

Dick Hantak #105 Washington vs. Philadelphia 1:00 pm: UNDER

Walt Coleman #65 Arizona vs. San Diego 4:00 pm: UNDER

Gerry Austin #34 New Orleans vs. New England 4:00 pm: OVER

Larry Nemmers #20 Baltimore vs. Jacksonville 4:00 pm: OVER

Bill Carollo #63 Oakland vs. N.Y.G. 4:00 pm: UNDER

Johnny Grier #23 Chicago vs. Minnesota Sunday Night Football: UNDER

Ron Blum #7 Tampa Bay vs. St. Louis Monday Night Football: UNDER

OK, system players, let's here from ya....

 

[THE KOD]

Originally posted by JD:
damn JD i think your on to something here. Keep up the good work!

Scott-Atlanta

 

[JD]

Thanks Scott,

Now, to elaborate a bit further, as in any profession, competition, hobby, whatever, there's always the best, the adequate, and not-so-good in each seperate facet or catagory. Specifically, perhaps there are some refs, who as Nolan stated, dwell on holding calls. Others who tend to spot the ball quickly and keep the clock running. Others may have a tendacy to stop the clock constantly or discuss every play in an on-field meeting. The biggy is that some refs may call pass interference on every contact, while others "let them play". All these facets and tendacies have an effect on the the natural flow of the game and help influence the outcome. But luckily, we don't have to research each seperate tendacy, just record a pattern of final results vs the number: ie. Over or Under more or less often.

This info will show us if there are any tendacies or consistancies which effect clock movement and scoring so that we can also take it into consideration when handicapping a total.

Naturally, this info would be useless in and of itself, but when considered in the aggregate with weather, teams, spread, schedule, location, etc....

[This message has been edited by JD (edited 11-27-2001).]

 

[JD]

No one huh? Anybody who uses the NFL Ferret program has this info.

Well anyway, I tried playing around with the database here at MJ's site, but it really is more oriented towards head to head matchups rather than totals.

OK, Perhaps if someone could get me a list of all the games played each week in 2001 and whether they finished Over or Under the final total number, then maybe I could take a few hours and put the info together on a spreadsheet for a manual comparison with the ref crew schedules. Either that or post a link here for me where I could find the weekly matchup and result info vs the total. (Even better if the list ALREADY has the ref crew listed that worked the games)Then I could lable refs as "over" refs or "under" refs and post their O/U records here as well.

I'd like to get this done by the weekend so that we can use this insight for the rest of this season.

Thanks.

[This message has been edited by JD (edited 11-28-2001).]