The Inside Wagering Line From PinnacleSports.com By Simon Noble
With Wimbledon in full swing, a lot of Pinnacle Sports players are taking
a much closer look at tennis betting. If you?re thinking about trying your
hand at Wimbledon or other tennis events, there are a few pitfalls a
little preparation can help you avoid.
Many new tennis bettors don?t understand the difference between the Grand
Slam events versus the traditional ?best of three set? tournaments. In the
Men?s Grand Slam events, all matches are ?best of five?. This means that
the fair price of a match between the same two players ca n be very
different, depending on whether it?s best of three or five.
Let?s consider a match-up between players ?A? and ?B?, where ?A? will win
each set 60% of the time. If p = 0.6 (odds for A to win each set) and q =
0.4 (odds of him not wining a set), the odds of him winning the match are:
M = p*p + p*q*p + q*p*p
There are three terms, just as there are three possible ways to win a
three-set match. He can win the first two sets (p*p), the first and third
set while l osing the second (p*q*p), or lose the first and win the last
two sets. So, the odds of ?A? winning this match are:
M= 0.6*0.6 + (0.6*0.4*0.6) + (0.4*0.6*0.6) = .648, or 64.8%.
It gets more complicated in a five-set match. In terms of winning or
losing a set, player A can win the match in three ways: win three straight
sets, three sets to one, or three sets to two. There?s only one possible
way to win three straight sets. There are three possible ways t o win 3-1
(since the match ends if he wins the first three). So how many ways can a
player win three sets to two? It?s easier if you remember that ?A? must
win the last set. Since he won exactly two of the first four sets, there
are (4 choose 2 = 4*3/2) or six ways to win 3-2. Therefore, the odds of
?A? winning a best of five match are:
M= p*p*p + p*p*p*q*3 + p*p*p*q*q*4
= .6^3 + .6^3 *.4*3 + .6^3 *.4*4 = 0.821, or 82.1%.
This example shows how much of a difference it mak es in playing the best
of five versus the best of three. When considering the match format, one
must also realize that the greater the difference in skill level, the more
it helps the favorite to play best of five.
You can use this method of analyzing matches to set lines for any series
bet, or many prop bets such as ?Will the Yankees win its playoff series in
exactly six games?. Once you have the tools in place to analyze these
kinds of problems, you?ll be surprised at how many opportunities present
themselves with an edge over the bookmaker. Often bargains can be found on
series plays where you?re laying -400 or greater, since these types of
bets mainly attract underdog money from public bettors.
Another area new tennis handicappers sometimes fail to understand is the
effect the surface has on play. The difference between grass, hard court
and clay is so significant that you can practically treat them as three
separa te sports. Even casual fans know that Nadal is amazing on clay, but
how well will he play on the grass at Wimbledon? If you?re handicapping a
match involving Nadal, you?d get a better indicator of his play by only
examining his play on grass than considering his recent play on clay
(including his dominant play at the French Open).
If you know a player?s strengths, you can improve your results further.
Does he have a big serve or a potent ground game? I n Wimbledon, the fast
grass surface enhances players with a strong serve and volley game,
whereas clay courts do just the opposite. Understanding a player?s
strengths should help handicapping their matches on the various surfaces.
This can be helpful, especially if a player?s form has changed in the past
six months or if they haven?t played many matches on the surface of the
upcoming match. For example, if a player has a very balanced game, you
might consider both clay and hard c ourt matches to handicap a later grass
match.
The most important thing for tennis bettors, like with any other sport, is
to find the most value on their wagers. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we offer
a 10-cent line on for all Wimbledon matches, which represents at least 50%
better odds than most traditional sportsbooks. Additionally,
PinnacleSports.com provides a comprehensive betting menu on every Grand
Slam event including sets betting, propositions, updated futures and
in-running betting.
While Wimbledon has just started, the World Cup has already reached the
quarterfinal round. So what are soccer players betting?
Brazil to advance versus France: Yes -260
The early opener at Pinnacle Sports listed Brazil as a -210 favorite. Of
the eight teams in the quarterfinals, Brazil has both the greatest
population (over 188 million) and the greatest national following. A few
sharps bet this early, but most of the early betting (notably after the
line moved to -240) was public money.
Brazil to win World Cup: Yes +251
At the start of the tournament, Brazil was +360 to win. Brazil started
slowly, but improved through the group stage, winning all three matches in
its group. They defeated Ghana 3-0 in the round of 16, bringing them one
round closer to taking their sixth World Cup title.
With three elimination matches remaining, the ?Yes? would only have value
if Brazil were expected to be an average of -195 or higher favorite in
each match-up. Given that they?re playing France (where early openers made
Brazil a -220 favorite), and will most likely play England then Germany as
a smaller favorite, the ?No? looks like the right side. One way to
leverage this is to play the ?No?, and use progressive hedging by playing
Brazil to advance each round.
With Wimbledon in full swing, a lot of Pinnacle Sports players are taking
a much closer look at tennis betting. If you?re thinking about trying your
hand at Wimbledon or other tennis events, there are a few pitfalls a
little preparation can help you avoid.
Many new tennis bettors don?t understand the difference between the Grand
Slam events versus the traditional ?best of three set? tournaments. In the
Men?s Grand Slam events, all matches are ?best of five?. This means that
the fair price of a match between the same two players ca n be very
different, depending on whether it?s best of three or five.
Let?s consider a match-up between players ?A? and ?B?, where ?A? will win
each set 60% of the time. If p = 0.6 (odds for A to win each set) and q =
0.4 (odds of him not wining a set), the odds of him winning the match are:
M = p*p + p*q*p + q*p*p
There are three terms, just as there are three possible ways to win a
three-set match. He can win the first two sets (p*p), the first and third
set while l osing the second (p*q*p), or lose the first and win the last
two sets. So, the odds of ?A? winning this match are:
M= 0.6*0.6 + (0.6*0.4*0.6) + (0.4*0.6*0.6) = .648, or 64.8%.
It gets more complicated in a five-set match. In terms of winning or
losing a set, player A can win the match in three ways: win three straight
sets, three sets to one, or three sets to two. There?s only one possible
way to win three straight sets. There are three possible ways t o win 3-1
(since the match ends if he wins the first three). So how many ways can a
player win three sets to two? It?s easier if you remember that ?A? must
win the last set. Since he won exactly two of the first four sets, there
are (4 choose 2 = 4*3/2) or six ways to win 3-2. Therefore, the odds of
?A? winning a best of five match are:
M= p*p*p + p*p*p*q*3 + p*p*p*q*q*4
= .6^3 + .6^3 *.4*3 + .6^3 *.4*4 = 0.821, or 82.1%.
This example shows how much of a difference it mak es in playing the best
of five versus the best of three. When considering the match format, one
must also realize that the greater the difference in skill level, the more
it helps the favorite to play best of five.
You can use this method of analyzing matches to set lines for any series
bet, or many prop bets such as ?Will the Yankees win its playoff series in
exactly six games?. Once you have the tools in place to analyze these
kinds of problems, you?ll be surprised at how many opportunities present
themselves with an edge over the bookmaker. Often bargains can be found on
series plays where you?re laying -400 or greater, since these types of
bets mainly attract underdog money from public bettors.
Another area new tennis handicappers sometimes fail to understand is the
effect the surface has on play. The difference between grass, hard court
and clay is so significant that you can practically treat them as three
separa te sports. Even casual fans know that Nadal is amazing on clay, but
how well will he play on the grass at Wimbledon? If you?re handicapping a
match involving Nadal, you?d get a better indicator of his play by only
examining his play on grass than considering his recent play on clay
(including his dominant play at the French Open).
If you know a player?s strengths, you can improve your results further.
Does he have a big serve or a potent ground game? I n Wimbledon, the fast
grass surface enhances players with a strong serve and volley game,
whereas clay courts do just the opposite. Understanding a player?s
strengths should help handicapping their matches on the various surfaces.
This can be helpful, especially if a player?s form has changed in the past
six months or if they haven?t played many matches on the surface of the
upcoming match. For example, if a player has a very balanced game, you
might consider both clay and hard c ourt matches to handicap a later grass
match.
The most important thing for tennis bettors, like with any other sport, is
to find the most value on their wagers. At Pinnacle Sportsbetting we offer
a 10-cent line on for all Wimbledon matches, which represents at least 50%
better odds than most traditional sportsbooks. Additionally,
PinnacleSports.com provides a comprehensive betting menu on every Grand
Slam event including sets betting, propositions, updated futures and
in-running betting.
While Wimbledon has just started, the World Cup has already reached the
quarterfinal round. So what are soccer players betting?
Brazil to advance versus France: Yes -260
The early opener at Pinnacle Sports listed Brazil as a -210 favorite. Of
the eight teams in the quarterfinals, Brazil has both the greatest
population (over 188 million) and the greatest national following. A few
sharps bet this early, but most of the early betting (notably after the
line moved to -240) was public money.
Brazil to win World Cup: Yes +251
At the start of the tournament, Brazil was +360 to win. Brazil started
slowly, but improved through the group stage, winning all three matches in
its group. They defeated Ghana 3-0 in the round of 16, bringing them one
round closer to taking their sixth World Cup title.
With three elimination matches remaining, the ?Yes? would only have value
if Brazil were expected to be an average of -195 or higher favorite in
each match-up. Given that they?re playing France (where early openers made
Brazil a -220 favorite), and will most likely play England then Germany as
a smaller favorite, the ?No? looks like the right side. One way to
leverage this is to play the ?No?, and use progressive hedging by playing
Brazil to advance each round.
