I wrote this article several months ago. Since we are almost upon prime service time because of football season, I am going to post it. I will post it on my page tomorrow.
Before I post it I want to say that I have emailed back and forth several times with Anders and I have met kcwolf, fletcher and Raymond in Vegas and I believe all of them are stand up guys. All of them are involved with services now. This is not a personal attack on them, but it is the honest truth about why I believe services are a bad idea.
I also want to make one addendum to this article:
What I failed to write about here is something from the side of the handicapper that is thinking of starting a service. You often hear that 90% of all small businesses fail in the first year and as it pertains to services I would bet that it is an even higher percentage. The very first time a losing streak hits, your entire business is gone. GONE. It's true that there are exceptions, but even handicappers with spectacular long term records lose their entire customer base when a bad streak hits. Nobody is going to pay you to lose their money for them. It may be unfair, but it is a reality of the game.
Once that streak hits, the service usually has to completely rebuild their customer base. That means actively advertising on message forums, print advertising and telephone and email canvassing. You hear from these guys all the time around this time of year and that is what it takes to get a new group of people willing to pay for picks.
Obviously I wish all three services that those guys are involved with luck, but it is a hard game to make money at.
THE PITFALLS OF SERVICES
They are easy targets of ridicule, the greasy pitchmen for 900 numbers and sports services that buy infomercial time and ad space in USA Today. They advertise "Locks" and "Guarantees" that could not possibly be true, and quite recently a couple of them were even exposed by the authorities and taken into custody. Then again they also can be legitimate businessmen who charge a nominal fee to help struggling sports gamblers gain a profit where they might otherwise see a loss. They are the men who run sports services.
The simple answer when a seasoned handicapper is asked how to deal with sports services is, "Don't." Never pay for sports picks. Ever. Because there are just so many scams and so much money to be made off the weaknesses of struggling gamblers that playing it safe and ignoring any desire to pay for picks is the best way to go.
But let's be realistic. While avoidance is the only solution to avoid being burned by scam artists who pollute gambling forums with "1*" or "1 unit" plays and then advertise higher valued plays in a pay service, there are a number of legitimately good handicappers who offer their plays along with a money management system that is relatively likely to leave the customer with a profit. And what is wrong with that? Many of these services will even used the comparison to a stock broker as a pitch. You pay a stock broker a not insignificant percentage to spend part of his day managing your money and insuring that it grows. In the case of sports services, you still get the rush of placing the bets and winning, but now your bankroll is more likely to grow rather than dwindle.
There is one fundamental difference in the way a sports service operates compared to a stock portfolio manager: the portfolio manager nets a percentage of your profits while a sports service must be paid a standard fee regardless of results. It is true that this is a necessary measure. Since a portfolio manger has direct access to your money and a sports service doesn't, it would be impossible for a sports service to charge based on a percentage of profits.
Still, that is only a minor problem. In fact, some would view it as a plus. So why, then, am I so dead set against the idea of paying for sports selections? Well, mainly because it breeds laziness in a business that requires anything but laziness for success. If you are looking to make money, there are a million easier ways to do it than gamble on sports. Successful sports handicapping takes an incredible amount of effort every single day to turn a comfortable profit. By subscribing to a service, the gambler is basically trying to take the easy way out of letting another handicapper do the work for them.
Like anything else in life that seems too good to be true, this idea is as well. Even good sports services hit terrible bad streaks, and the lazy handicapper generally won't have the discipline to survive these down streaks. The psychological drain of losing preys on all handicappers but the one's who take handicapping seriously are well prepared to survive without going broke on make up bets.
There is also the issue of what the gambler does when his relationship with the service ends. Even if the gambler has made a healthy profit (which, let's face it, is only going to happen a small percentage of the time considering all the scam services out there), that gambler is left with an addicting habit of sports gambling, nobody to lead them and little knowledge of how to turn a profit themselves. Those three ingredients are a Molotov cocktail that usually explodes and leaves the gambler stripped of whatever profit they formerly had.
The point of all of this is to let gamblers know that no matter how unsure you are of your handicapping abilities, you are still most likely better off in the long run than you would be subscribing to a pay service.
That having been said, I know there are still some of you who may end up paying for picks at some point in the future. If you decide to go that route, I would make these suggestions to give yourself the best chance of turning a profit over the long haul.
1) Ask the service to give an exact payment scale. AVOID ANY SERVICE WITH "CLUBS" where there are different pay scales for the same amount of days. Any legitimate service will offer all their plays in a single day for the same price without pricier "Clubs" or "Releases" that cost the customer extra money.
2) Ask the service to give a concrete selection release schedule. In this, I mean, ask questions like: if we go on a cold streak, should I expect fewer plays? how many plays per day should I expect in each sport? will the number of selections vary in certain sports towards the beginning or end of a season? etc.
3) Ask to see an independently documented record of the service's plays. If the service does not have their plays documented, AVOID THEM COMPLETELY. This may sound self serving, but there is no good reason for a service to abstain from proving their worth on something like Best Bettor. It takes about a minute per day to enter selections and even though the money management method is rough to say the least, at least it gives a documented record of plays.
4) Ask the service about a specific money management schedule. What percentage of your bankroll or how many "units" should be wagered on each type of play? What is the total bankroll percentage that I can expect to wager each day?
5) Try to find a service that gives plays in the same style you like to play. If you are comfortable with one or two plays per day, find a service that gives about that many plays. If you want more action, find a service that makes a higher number of picks. If you play the same amount on each play, find a service like that. There is no value in subscribing to a service that will only make you uncomfortable to subscribe to their plays.
Before I wrap this up I want to reiterate that almost all gamblers would be better off NOT subscribing to services. Handicapping done properly with hard work and discipline can lead to nice profits. Done any other way, there are pitfalls along the way. For the addicted gambler who simply *must* have action but who doesn't have the time to handicap, a service used conservatively may be a solution, but not as good a solution as giving up sports betting entirely. To those of you who are stubborn in your decision to pay for plays, I say good luck, but be careful to avoid scams.
Before I post it I want to say that I have emailed back and forth several times with Anders and I have met kcwolf, fletcher and Raymond in Vegas and I believe all of them are stand up guys. All of them are involved with services now. This is not a personal attack on them, but it is the honest truth about why I believe services are a bad idea.
I also want to make one addendum to this article:
What I failed to write about here is something from the side of the handicapper that is thinking of starting a service. You often hear that 90% of all small businesses fail in the first year and as it pertains to services I would bet that it is an even higher percentage. The very first time a losing streak hits, your entire business is gone. GONE. It's true that there are exceptions, but even handicappers with spectacular long term records lose their entire customer base when a bad streak hits. Nobody is going to pay you to lose their money for them. It may be unfair, but it is a reality of the game.
Once that streak hits, the service usually has to completely rebuild their customer base. That means actively advertising on message forums, print advertising and telephone and email canvassing. You hear from these guys all the time around this time of year and that is what it takes to get a new group of people willing to pay for picks.
Obviously I wish all three services that those guys are involved with luck, but it is a hard game to make money at.
THE PITFALLS OF SERVICES
They are easy targets of ridicule, the greasy pitchmen for 900 numbers and sports services that buy infomercial time and ad space in USA Today. They advertise "Locks" and "Guarantees" that could not possibly be true, and quite recently a couple of them were even exposed by the authorities and taken into custody. Then again they also can be legitimate businessmen who charge a nominal fee to help struggling sports gamblers gain a profit where they might otherwise see a loss. They are the men who run sports services.
The simple answer when a seasoned handicapper is asked how to deal with sports services is, "Don't." Never pay for sports picks. Ever. Because there are just so many scams and so much money to be made off the weaknesses of struggling gamblers that playing it safe and ignoring any desire to pay for picks is the best way to go.
But let's be realistic. While avoidance is the only solution to avoid being burned by scam artists who pollute gambling forums with "1*" or "1 unit" plays and then advertise higher valued plays in a pay service, there are a number of legitimately good handicappers who offer their plays along with a money management system that is relatively likely to leave the customer with a profit. And what is wrong with that? Many of these services will even used the comparison to a stock broker as a pitch. You pay a stock broker a not insignificant percentage to spend part of his day managing your money and insuring that it grows. In the case of sports services, you still get the rush of placing the bets and winning, but now your bankroll is more likely to grow rather than dwindle.
There is one fundamental difference in the way a sports service operates compared to a stock portfolio manager: the portfolio manager nets a percentage of your profits while a sports service must be paid a standard fee regardless of results. It is true that this is a necessary measure. Since a portfolio manger has direct access to your money and a sports service doesn't, it would be impossible for a sports service to charge based on a percentage of profits.
Still, that is only a minor problem. In fact, some would view it as a plus. So why, then, am I so dead set against the idea of paying for sports selections? Well, mainly because it breeds laziness in a business that requires anything but laziness for success. If you are looking to make money, there are a million easier ways to do it than gamble on sports. Successful sports handicapping takes an incredible amount of effort every single day to turn a comfortable profit. By subscribing to a service, the gambler is basically trying to take the easy way out of letting another handicapper do the work for them.
Like anything else in life that seems too good to be true, this idea is as well. Even good sports services hit terrible bad streaks, and the lazy handicapper generally won't have the discipline to survive these down streaks. The psychological drain of losing preys on all handicappers but the one's who take handicapping seriously are well prepared to survive without going broke on make up bets.
There is also the issue of what the gambler does when his relationship with the service ends. Even if the gambler has made a healthy profit (which, let's face it, is only going to happen a small percentage of the time considering all the scam services out there), that gambler is left with an addicting habit of sports gambling, nobody to lead them and little knowledge of how to turn a profit themselves. Those three ingredients are a Molotov cocktail that usually explodes and leaves the gambler stripped of whatever profit they formerly had.
The point of all of this is to let gamblers know that no matter how unsure you are of your handicapping abilities, you are still most likely better off in the long run than you would be subscribing to a pay service.
That having been said, I know there are still some of you who may end up paying for picks at some point in the future. If you decide to go that route, I would make these suggestions to give yourself the best chance of turning a profit over the long haul.
1) Ask the service to give an exact payment scale. AVOID ANY SERVICE WITH "CLUBS" where there are different pay scales for the same amount of days. Any legitimate service will offer all their plays in a single day for the same price without pricier "Clubs" or "Releases" that cost the customer extra money.
2) Ask the service to give a concrete selection release schedule. In this, I mean, ask questions like: if we go on a cold streak, should I expect fewer plays? how many plays per day should I expect in each sport? will the number of selections vary in certain sports towards the beginning or end of a season? etc.
3) Ask to see an independently documented record of the service's plays. If the service does not have their plays documented, AVOID THEM COMPLETELY. This may sound self serving, but there is no good reason for a service to abstain from proving their worth on something like Best Bettor. It takes about a minute per day to enter selections and even though the money management method is rough to say the least, at least it gives a documented record of plays.
4) Ask the service about a specific money management schedule. What percentage of your bankroll or how many "units" should be wagered on each type of play? What is the total bankroll percentage that I can expect to wager each day?
5) Try to find a service that gives plays in the same style you like to play. If you are comfortable with one or two plays per day, find a service that gives about that many plays. If you want more action, find a service that makes a higher number of picks. If you play the same amount on each play, find a service like that. There is no value in subscribing to a service that will only make you uncomfortable to subscribe to their plays.
Before I wrap this up I want to reiterate that almost all gamblers would be better off NOT subscribing to services. Handicapping done properly with hard work and discipline can lead to nice profits. Done any other way, there are pitfalls along the way. For the addicted gambler who simply *must* have action but who doesn't have the time to handicap, a service used conservatively may be a solution, but not as good a solution as giving up sports betting entirely. To those of you who are stubborn in your decision to pay for plays, I say good luck, but be careful to avoid scams.
