OPENERS:
(A) I meant what I said last week . . .
During the grueling Florida swing through Honda - PODS - Palmer, I noted the grind of those courses had slammed the brakes on the West Coast trend of players regulary getting right back in the mix in events one after the other, and was instead producing the classic strain of mental fatique that comes from being in contention and take's a real toll before spitting out poor candidates for the following week, while disappointing perfomances can be just the recipe for sharp form to prove it on the rebound. I'll be looking for lots of just that from both ends of the Wachovia field as they move on to The Players.
I can't see how Steve Stricker or Arron Oberholser, after mixing it up with Tiger at Quail Hollow, or Ken Duke or Anthony Kim at the end of quite a run (or Rory Sabbatini for different reasons all together, but similar reasons on top thereof), now have their tanks right where they need to be to sustain through this potentially defining week of a career, first to Saturday night, and then first across the finish line after 72 holes on Sunday. On the other hand, the players I had in mind for this week cooperated pretty nicely, and I don't see it as a bad thing or sign of trouble for Luke Donald or Ian Poulter to have missed the cut for their lead in, or for Padraig Harrington to have fallen away and been blitzed 64-79 while paired with the charming Mr. Sabbatini, before rebounding by equaling the best score of the day on Sunday . . . And the Big 3 are 3 special cases of all-time greatness, but I don't think they gained either, and I'll be surprised to see any improvement in their combined finishing positions from last week (1 + 3 + 7 = 11), and will guess it reads more like 4 + 8 + 14 = 26 after this week; whereas if the higher sum for their finishes had played out last week, I'd expect them to all be right close to improving on their finishes this week at a venue that has rarely suited them.
(B) If I had backed Zach Johnson from the start at Augusta, it would be fairly difficult not to have faith that God would keep keep his balls out of the water and rolling in the hole again this week. In a similar vein, I did back Stephen Ames with a big ante-post wager two weeks before last year's championship, and it's hard not give him another chance to carry my cash. But except for a saver on both players, I will be looking elsewhere this time. "When it's your time . . . ", is one of the great adages in all of sport, and the stars are aligned far differently for both Johnson and Ames this week (which is not to say they won't forge the next chapter in their destinies only when their stars are similarly aligned again, but rather that IMO this configuration is not highly conducive to a shocking result that slams the door in the face of any other compelling storylines of "The Players" that are about to emerge and not looking to die a quiet death at the hands of the greatness that is Z. Johnson or S. Ames)
(C) The ideal of a sport's analyst is to explain the action and anticipate the action (and hopefully with a pleasing style). For my money, Mark Rolfing with NBC consistently does the best job while sitting in on a round table discussion on the eve of a championship, or on Friday night after the cut, or on a Saturday night after moving day has set the table. Good Lord, I'm not suggesting he's a money machine or that I never disagree with him, but when he speaks in those settings, I listen closely to what he has to say . . . Anyway, I suspect he's been in close communication with the Tour's meteorologists on the site, and he thinks the early players on Thursday might gain a huge advantage when some really nasty weather hits about 1:00 p.m. on Thursday (of course if it's a tropical storm, the next question is will they even continue play . . .). In addition, whether you're talking about the shotmaking and ball striking geniuses or the short game wizards, he figures the course will be playing so tough that everyone is going to be facing a lot of 6 footers to keep their momentum going, once again IMO bringing into focus why having just gone through all that was demanded last week is not the preferred recipe as a lead in to this week.
Outrights:
Padraig Harrington(40/1) e.w.
- - This old chestnut from 2003 ias a nice place to start:
http://www.golfdigest.com/majors/usopen/index.ssf?/majors/usopen/gd200306harrington.html
- - His father's battle with cancer in 2005 was a step back but forged a big hunk of the current Player:
http://www.pga.com/openchampionship/2005/news_071105_harrington.html
- - If tempted to look toward short game specialists this week:
http://www.sportinglife.com/golf/ne...ME=golf/07/05/08/GOLF_Sawgrass_Nightlead.html
- - So back to last week (before I knew of any skin cancer treatments during a rust inducing layoff), and my take was, "Heading into the Masters, I thought the arc of (Padraig's) career had him really primed and poised for "his time" as the European force in the biggest events, and coming out of Augusta I think that's the opportunity of his spring and summer."
Ian Poulter(100/1) e.w.
- - (1) The guy can putt, and yet IMO opinion he's struggled to see his share drop this year. But I've really liked the way he's played on through the next shot, the next day and the next event, without showing some of the frustration born of cockiness that marked earlier and recent stages of his career. These guys are all good, and no one among your peers really wants to hear about it - you keep working hard, you suffer silently and use your frustration as motivation, and know your time will come. (2) Some nice history here at Sawgrass involving the marking of his ball on #4 that flew into the pond and was retrieved by his personal trainer to avoid a penalty for an illegal substitution for a ball in play; and while in good shape last year, I remember well the sight (Saturday on #12?) of our protagonist getting hung up in a really juicy patch of rough and slashing his club back and forth through the mess in an explosion of total disgust while on his way to a big number (I know he hasn't forgotten the spot or the moment). (3) His bud Justin Rose has been overdue to explode at any time, from Hartford to Tucson, while I think Poulter has been tracking to make his first mark in the States when the stage is pretty large.
Luke Donald(33/1) e.w.
- - I look at The Players Championship, I see Luke Donald as a perfect fit. I look at Luke Donald, I see The Players Championship as a perfect fit. Well over his stag party hangover, and real recently the catbird seat witness to Scott Verplank's "time" of achieving a boyhood dream, I like this spot a lot.
Boo Weekley(125/1) e.w.
- - My huckleberry could have won twice this season, but once is enough, as he heads across the state from Milton, Florida to storybook Sawgrass and joins up with the Masters champ who played along side while Boo was seizing quite a moment in time of his own at Hilton Head.
Camilo Villegas(125/1) e.w.
- - Go Gators!
I could have stopped right there, but I kept going . . .
David Toms(100/1) e.w.
- - My preference in making this play is definitely for the bad weather to be short lived. Anyway, is this a very common price for Toms in Florida? . . . Toms has made the cut in all nine events he?s entered this season with four top-10 finishes, and is coming off a ninth-place effort at The Masters . . . After the Masters: ?My game feels pretty good right now,? (Toms) said. ?Obviously, I haven?t contended the way I?d like to so far this year. But overall, I?ve been very consistent with some decent checks along the way." . . .?At this stage of the year, I?d like to at least have a really good shot at winning sometime soon." . . . Toms withdrew from Wachovia prior to the statrt for personal reasons (anyone know why?) . . . His stats for the season show 41st in GIR and 10th in scrambling; I'll be keeping an eye on how he fares on the Par 5's . . . Pretty classy 100/1 outsider.
Vaughn Taylor(80/1) e.w.
- - Step aside Zach and this time let your buddy show the world how it's done, especially from inside 10 feet.
John Rollins(100/1) e.w.
- - I think of Rollins as suited to courses with a premium on shotmaking, which serves as the premise; an empty feeling on fullfilling the potential he's shown this season serves as the catalyst (either that, or the drugs that have fried my brain cells).
Matchups:
Weekley(-110) over Bryant (Tournament)
Green(-150) over Clarke (Tournament)
Villegas(+102) over Appleby (Tournament)
GL
