ODDS and ENDS:
Mainly a rehash of observations from last year:
(A) ?Only four players have won more than once on the Stadium Course . . . Tiger Woods credits the diversity to ?the nature of the design . . . How Pete (Dye) designed it with the cutoff bunkers and the mounding that it just brings all of us together,? said Woods, who hasn?t earned a top-10 at The Players since his 2001 triumph . . . ?We're all hitting the balls to the same spots. A lot of times for the longer hitters, it's 3-wood or 2-iron or some kind of utility club off the tees where the shorter guys are hitting drivers, so we're all in the same spot. With that in mind, it becomes a second shot course and see who can hit their irons the best and put themselves in positions where they can make putts.?? . . . The Big Four - Woods, Singh, Els and Mickelson - are a collective 2 for 61 at Sawgrass and only boast eleven top tens between them . . . But it may be worth considering that when Sawgrass was played in March, the very best players were building towards Augusta; now they are in the groove, and are in the period of the year where a biggie comes along every 5 weeks; this may or may not prove to be a good call, but the average finishing position of the Top 10 players is almost due to come down simply by the law of averages from its current high prior to 2007, which must be the highest average overall of any top event.
(B) While a consistently dreadful record at this venue suggests a noteworthy problem that is hard to overcome, I?ve always believed that the way TPC Sawgrass sets up and plays (and the importance of the title being contested) accounts for the fact that almost no players have a particularly consistent record of high finishes at Sawgrass (unlike Augusta, or links golf, or Pete Dye?s Harbour Town Course, etc.) In other words, this week more than most I?ll be looking at some clue in this year?s form, or some defining incident(s) from their Sawgrass experiences as potentially significant, and be much less inclined to focus my trigger pulling on ?horses for courses? considerations.
(C) The test this week has the grind of a major . . . the need to hole those six foot putts that keep a round going . . . the mental fatigue come Saturday night . . . That stuff makes undergoing anything comparable from the substantial demands of Quail Hollow during the prior week a generally poor prescription for taking on a potentially career defining week . . .
(D) ?Wind direction adds one more potentially confusing dynamic. March winds tend to come from the north. The normal southeast sea breeze that dominates May makes the par-5 16th play into the wind and the par-3 island 17th play downwind.? . . . A marked difference was evident on #9 last year, and taking on the 270+ yard second shot draw to reach the putting surface. In 2006, only 5.7% attempted the green in 2 and no-one achieved their goal - but that was with an average drive of only 272.3yds. I have no stats for 2007, but I certainly recall many more taking a crack, and doing so after a longer tee shot . . . #2, #14 and #16 also have the potential to play much longer with a change to the prevailing May winds . . .
(E) Just for the heck of it - Seventh Annual PGA Tour Player Survey:
http://www.golf.com/golf/gallery/article/0,28242,1735913,00.html
A favorite from the Sixth Annual PGA Tour Player Survey:
Q: ?Who is your least favorite playing partner??
Rory Sabbatini 25%
Ben Crane 8%
Garrett Willis 8%
Phil Mickelson 8%
Also receiving votes: Fulton Allem, Woody Austin, Jason Bohn, Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Robert Gamez, Retief Goosen, Mark Hensby, J.B. Holmes, Lee Janzen, Jerry Kelly, Jeff Maggert, Kevin Na, Tom Pernice, Jim Rutledge, Vijay Singh
Who is your favorite playing partner?
Tiger Woods 6%
Kenny Perry 5%
Joey Sindelar 5%
Also receiving votes: Woody Austin, Paul Azinger, Cameron Beckman, Rich Beem, Chad Campbell, Daniel Chopra, Stewart Cink, Fred Couples, John Daly, Joe Durant, David Duval, Brad Faxon, Fred Funk, Lucas Glover, Paul Goydos, J.P. Hayes, Tim Herron, Charles Howell, Ryuji Imada, Fredrik Jacobsen, Brandt Jobe, Justin Leonard, Davis Love III, Hunter Mahan, Steve Marino, Geoff Ogilvy, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ryan Palmer, Rod Pampling, Jesper Parnevik, Nick Price, Ted Purdy, Adam Scott, Heath Slocum, Jeff Sluman, Chris Smith, Craig Stadler, Paul Stankowski, Kevin Sutherland, David Toms, Bubba Watson.
O.K., two early plays before the +/- pairings are even announced . . .
Outrights:
Zach Johnson(70/1) e.w.
- - I wasn?t needing any particular price in order to make this play, but 70/1 without Tiger seems fair enough . . . I?ve had this play very much in mind since a fairly spirited title defense at Augusta (?We're all hitting the balls to the same spots?; the need to hole those six foot putts that keep a round going . . .), and Zach?s T-25 at Wachovia where his prior finishes were mc/mc/mc/84 fits nicely with my expectations. Moreover, the taste in his mouth from Sunday of being -6 after 15 holes and then going +4 over the last 3 holes fits with the entire lack of rewards he has received for any of his efforts over the course of the season. Further, with his benefit course in Georgia next on the schedule, ?popping early? has crossed my mind.
Ian Poulter(125/1) e.w.
- - Looking back, I had this play at 100/1 with Tiger last year; I like the play even more this year, even if the price had been less generous than last year (although his increasingly wayward driving is a concern, he's capable of getting it done off the tee when on his best). Like Zach, I don?t think Poulter?s rewards on the season to date (since January 1) match the overall level of his play, but along comes a big opportunity to set matters right.
GL
Mainly a rehash of observations from last year:
(A) ?Only four players have won more than once on the Stadium Course . . . Tiger Woods credits the diversity to ?the nature of the design . . . How Pete (Dye) designed it with the cutoff bunkers and the mounding that it just brings all of us together,? said Woods, who hasn?t earned a top-10 at The Players since his 2001 triumph . . . ?We're all hitting the balls to the same spots. A lot of times for the longer hitters, it's 3-wood or 2-iron or some kind of utility club off the tees where the shorter guys are hitting drivers, so we're all in the same spot. With that in mind, it becomes a second shot course and see who can hit their irons the best and put themselves in positions where they can make putts.?? . . . The Big Four - Woods, Singh, Els and Mickelson - are a collective 2 for 61 at Sawgrass and only boast eleven top tens between them . . . But it may be worth considering that when Sawgrass was played in March, the very best players were building towards Augusta; now they are in the groove, and are in the period of the year where a biggie comes along every 5 weeks; this may or may not prove to be a good call, but the average finishing position of the Top 10 players is almost due to come down simply by the law of averages from its current high prior to 2007, which must be the highest average overall of any top event.
(B) While a consistently dreadful record at this venue suggests a noteworthy problem that is hard to overcome, I?ve always believed that the way TPC Sawgrass sets up and plays (and the importance of the title being contested) accounts for the fact that almost no players have a particularly consistent record of high finishes at Sawgrass (unlike Augusta, or links golf, or Pete Dye?s Harbour Town Course, etc.) In other words, this week more than most I?ll be looking at some clue in this year?s form, or some defining incident(s) from their Sawgrass experiences as potentially significant, and be much less inclined to focus my trigger pulling on ?horses for courses? considerations.
(C) The test this week has the grind of a major . . . the need to hole those six foot putts that keep a round going . . . the mental fatigue come Saturday night . . . That stuff makes undergoing anything comparable from the substantial demands of Quail Hollow during the prior week a generally poor prescription for taking on a potentially career defining week . . .
(D) ?Wind direction adds one more potentially confusing dynamic. March winds tend to come from the north. The normal southeast sea breeze that dominates May makes the par-5 16th play into the wind and the par-3 island 17th play downwind.? . . . A marked difference was evident on #9 last year, and taking on the 270+ yard second shot draw to reach the putting surface. In 2006, only 5.7% attempted the green in 2 and no-one achieved their goal - but that was with an average drive of only 272.3yds. I have no stats for 2007, but I certainly recall many more taking a crack, and doing so after a longer tee shot . . . #2, #14 and #16 also have the potential to play much longer with a change to the prevailing May winds . . .
(E) Just for the heck of it - Seventh Annual PGA Tour Player Survey:
http://www.golf.com/golf/gallery/article/0,28242,1735913,00.html
A favorite from the Sixth Annual PGA Tour Player Survey:
Q: ?Who is your least favorite playing partner??
Rory Sabbatini 25%
Ben Crane 8%
Garrett Willis 8%
Phil Mickelson 8%
Also receiving votes: Fulton Allem, Woody Austin, Jason Bohn, Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Robert Gamez, Retief Goosen, Mark Hensby, J.B. Holmes, Lee Janzen, Jerry Kelly, Jeff Maggert, Kevin Na, Tom Pernice, Jim Rutledge, Vijay Singh
Who is your favorite playing partner?
Tiger Woods 6%
Kenny Perry 5%
Joey Sindelar 5%
Also receiving votes: Woody Austin, Paul Azinger, Cameron Beckman, Rich Beem, Chad Campbell, Daniel Chopra, Stewart Cink, Fred Couples, John Daly, Joe Durant, David Duval, Brad Faxon, Fred Funk, Lucas Glover, Paul Goydos, J.P. Hayes, Tim Herron, Charles Howell, Ryuji Imada, Fredrik Jacobsen, Brandt Jobe, Justin Leonard, Davis Love III, Hunter Mahan, Steve Marino, Geoff Ogilvy, Jose Maria Olazabal, Ryan Palmer, Rod Pampling, Jesper Parnevik, Nick Price, Ted Purdy, Adam Scott, Heath Slocum, Jeff Sluman, Chris Smith, Craig Stadler, Paul Stankowski, Kevin Sutherland, David Toms, Bubba Watson.
O.K., two early plays before the +/- pairings are even announced . . .
Outrights:
Zach Johnson(70/1) e.w.
- - I wasn?t needing any particular price in order to make this play, but 70/1 without Tiger seems fair enough . . . I?ve had this play very much in mind since a fairly spirited title defense at Augusta (?We're all hitting the balls to the same spots?; the need to hole those six foot putts that keep a round going . . .), and Zach?s T-25 at Wachovia where his prior finishes were mc/mc/mc/84 fits nicely with my expectations. Moreover, the taste in his mouth from Sunday of being -6 after 15 holes and then going +4 over the last 3 holes fits with the entire lack of rewards he has received for any of his efforts over the course of the season. Further, with his benefit course in Georgia next on the schedule, ?popping early? has crossed my mind.
Ian Poulter(125/1) e.w.
- - Looking back, I had this play at 100/1 with Tiger last year; I like the play even more this year, even if the price had been less generous than last year (although his increasingly wayward driving is a concern, he's capable of getting it done off the tee when on his best). Like Zach, I don?t think Poulter?s rewards on the season to date (since January 1) match the overall level of his play, but along comes a big opportunity to set matters right.
GL
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