I'll start with a "cut and paste" from a portion of my lengthy post on The Players from last year . . .
ODDS and ENDS:
(C) Three ANGLES are always my starting point for capping The Players: (1) From my 2006 notes:"Only four players have won more than once on the Stadium Course. Tiger Woods credits the diversity to "the nature of the design." "How Pete (Dye) designed it with the cutoff bunkers and the mounding that it just brings all of us together,? said Woods, who hasn?t earned a top-10 at The Players since his 2001 triumph. ?We're all hitting the balls to the same spots. A lot of times for the longer hitters, it's 3-wood or 2-iron or some kind of utility club off the tees where the shorter guys are hitting drivers, so we're all in the same spot. With that in mind, it becomes a second shot course and see who can hit their irons the best and put themselves in positions where they can make putts.?"; (2) Even when you can find a few golfers that really seem to like the place (Stephen Ames or Ben Crane or Luke Donald as possible examples), the fact is that unlike Augusta or the U.S. Open which have some well-defined specialists, almost everyone has a spotty record at Sawgrass. In addition, it's a venue that definitely favors champions with some experience, including at least one good turn through the championship on their CV. On the other side of the coin, although there are some players who really love Sawgrass (being few and far between), you get the sense there is no shortage of players the venue just does not suit, and their record reflects it . . . I think other cappers have spotted similar trend lines and offered similar takes, and one set of observations I particularly like in 2012 and 2011: "7/10 winners International players,Ball strikers track,Bermuda Greens,course form does not seem that important,whilst being in decent current form does with the places littered with players with Good recent finishes,Winners have had Multiple runs at the course,Power not an issue,Total Accuracy has been a key stat . . . since 2003, the average number of starts for a winner before he broke through at THE PLAYERS was 7.57. (That included two-time champion, Davis Love III -- 1992, 2003 -- whose first triumph came in his seventh appearance.) Lo and behold, Tim Clark supported the theory that experience matters at TPC Sawgrass, as he emerged victorious in what was his eighth start"; and (3) I really don't have much of a problem swerving prices on the top tier of market leaders . . . and if they get it done, more power to them..
Outrights:
Francesco Molinari(125/1) e.w.
- - His game has been in great shape for months, his strongest close of the season came in his last event, he's fresh, and he's chomping at the bit to get just a taste of some of the heights that his game has him on the cusp of, IMO. His game still has it's obvious weakness, but this Big International stage which is maybe not too big is at a venue on which his strengths give him something of a brilliant opportunity, IMO. Stephen Ames and David Toms didn't feel that much righter than this, really.
Pat Perez(125/1) e.w.
- -
When I heard the name Pat Perez mentioned (before Wells Fargo), I formed the immediate impression that fits as a ripe possibility for Sawgrass 2014 in just a little bitty one week. I then promptly went and looked at his record at Sawgrass, and saw stuff very representative of the type of numbers I like to see for a player that may have his crowning moment at The Players. The backstory fits, and I'll be a big fan starting Thursday.
Zach Johnson(33/1) e.w.
- - His game went off the crazy boil it was on, but IMO he's been tracking for one or more big moments of opportunity somewhere in his 2014 campaign, and this spot was always a leading candidate, before he conveniently dropped a fairly sharp precursor on to his resume last week.
Luke Donald(25/1) e.w.
- - His price is crap, but I really think there's a decent chance he's a distinct threat.
Jim Furyk(28/1) e.w.
- - He's been tracking on my radar for this big opportunity, and a late run last week was more exhilarating than exhausting. But this crap price is the crappiest price I've invested in all season.
J. B. Holmes(70/1) e.w.
- - It's a long grind this week to just get to Sunday, and then it only ratchets up to close the deal, so an exhausting effort last week is crap for preparation . . . What this play needs is to feature a winning marker from last week that I was letting ride for another week, then I would feel really good about the value of this play.
Lucas Glover(740/1) e.w.
- - Not going to be close until something turns around his putting.
I could stop there, or I could go on. I decided to go on.
Thomas Bjorn(125/1) e.w.
- - His price is now pretty much crap, but the slayer of demons has rode his game to some remarkably rich experiences of late, so why not upward until it crashes.
Russell Knox(125/1) e.w.
- - I'm in my first stretch of the season involving several weeks of what I can characterize as something close to some serious effort in my capping, and this is a name and a backstory that emerged from nowhere vis-a-vis my short list or my long list, so I said pull the trigger and see what comes of it.
Graeme McDowell(66/1) e.w.
- - It feels like I'm forcing this play, because he seems a danger to get in the mix, but I don't think his game is on the cusp of the immaculate level that will see him across the finish line.
Ian Poulter(66/1) e.w.
- - It feels like I'm forcing this play, because I think he thinks he's ready to strut like a peacock, but I'm not at all convinced this is some great moment in time when he should be carrying my cash.
I'll finish with a "cut and paste" from a portion of my lengthy post on The Players from last year . . .
(D) The Players championship IMO closely resembles the four majors in some significant attributes when it comes to capping, including my focus and approach of trying to track players for weeks or even months heading in for their chances of peaking at this extra large event. And when play begins, you better know the players will have a long week of grinding in front of them . . . Now this year I join SBI in having an exceptionally large short list, and while I feel I've done a decent job of finding names I'm really comfortable dropping, it was a really long list(!) when I started on Sunday morning. . . And in another similarity with the majors, it's a fact I have a far better capping record in the four majors and The Players than I do in the week-in-and-week-out of the regular tours (although the U.S. PGA is the exception in that run of success)(oops, until 2013, when I landed Dufner and Furyk and Stenson and Scott), quite possibly because of the effort I give, but I think it's based more on a solid catechism of knowing what I like (and don't particularly like) around each of those events.
And when
these events roll around, crap prices would never, I mean never, deter me from going with what I like.
GL
