The poop on GB@TB

yyz

Under .500
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Mar 16, 2000
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On the course!
Things that worry me:

  • Tampa Bay's defense cannot be as bad as they have looked.
  • Green Bay's defense is not as good as it looks.
  • Favre's tendancy to panic when trailing.

We know the routine: "Green Bay hasn't played anyone yet!"

Well, they played 3 NFL teams, and are 3-0

Granted, we haven't seen them in "crunch time", since no game has been close, but this is a seasoned team.

Nothing makes a team more confident than winning. 3-0 is 3-0....whether against the cream or the crumbs. you are not sitting around second guessing, and pointing fingers.

Tampa has looked like shit in their two plays to date, and they have some back-biting going on. A lot of talk about, "This is the year we must get to the SB!"

People missing blocks, dropping passes, etc, cause hard feelings amoungst the boys!

I expect the Tampa Bay defense to step it up just a tad this week.

Green Bay's defense

Leading the league in defense? Great! But, unexpected. Sort of like a guy hitting two homers on opening day, and someone says, "He's on pace to hit over 300 homers!" The Pack will come back to the herd soon enough.

The benefit this week, is that they play another sub-standard offense. They should hold up well enough to maintain the numbers they are currently at. Tampa Bay is something like 9-24 on 3rd downs this season. Most of those come from 3rd and long, and there will be plenty of those come Sunday.

"Oh, my Favre!"

Brett, Brett, Brett......what to do about your hillbilly ass?

I love the guy, but he panics too soon! Last week, he tosses a lolly-pop up for the INT. His team is down 7-0 early, and he starts gunning all over the place! You need to settle down! The game is not in the ballance every stinking down! He is great with a two TD lead, but he still scares me when they are in the hole! I know he can, and does, do the job more often than not, but he still need to be cool under pressure.

Tick, tick, tick....

T.O.P.....Green Bay has won this battle in all 3 wins. This is a very important stat. The thing about Tampa Bay is, they are pretty good at ball control, too. With Dunce, er Dunn sitting out for a spell, I look to see Mikey A pound it in a few times against the Pack. Dungy knows that the Packers have run away and hid from everyone so far. The only hope he has, is to get the Bucs up fast (unlikely) or keep in the game by holding the ball for large chunks of time, and waiting for GB to implode.

Tale of the tape

  • Rushing game
    Ahman Green vs Tampa's potpouri
    Green Bay
  • Passing game
    (What do you think?)
  • Rushing "D"
    Both good, but one over achieving, one under.
    push
  • Passing "D"
    Packers better over all. Based on QB's, Packers big!
    Green Bay
  • Kicking
    Gramatica/Longwell?
    tiny edge to Tampa Bay
  • Coaching
    Dungy been down this road before. Coached the same team forever, and needs this win more than Sherman does
    Tampa Bay

Here's what I see in a nut shell:

Less of an offensive output from Green Bay, while Tampa continues to struggle. A surging Packer team continues to find the will to overpower their opponants in a slow, boring game that will let down Bucs fans, yet again.

Green Bay wins this game.

20-9

4 unit play Green Bay +130
3 unit play under 36'



[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 10-04-2001).]
 

yearofthesnake

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I don't care what kind of statistics you put in front of me, there's no way GB has a better defense then TB. If you can tell yourself that and believe it pass the pipe this way.

TB is horrible ATS, but they're not on the road giving pts, or playing against a desperate team. They're at home giving less then a FG. I agree it will be a low scoring game it can go either way.

GB has played TB tough recently with teams which don't appear as good as this one, and didn't they (GB) have a backup QB in the game last year at TB and still almost won?

Quite a few edges to GB but TB is just the type of team to bite you in the arse just when you bet against them.
 

pepin46

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Oct 6, 2000
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there is a lot to agree with here, but it boils down to:

is this the correct line? not in my opinion. this line should be at around g.b. -2.

why?

g.b. is definitely a tad or two better and t.b, if any, a tad worse. if we disagree here, the argument is over. dunn is out. that is worth something. it is not the same being a cheerleader on the sidelines as doing your job on the firing line.

tampa's performance against dallas was dismal and should have played tough and won the game at minny, a team with a one dimensional offense, and in a bit of disarray with its stars.

there seems to be quite a difference between green bay and tampa, leaning toward huge.

the argument is that it should be a close game, and with a slight tilt to g.b. in my opinion.

are there 4 better games available? not so far for me. this one ranks about #3 or 4 in my priorities, so it would be hard to throw it out. i would rather go with my facts and convictions than flip a coin on a game i have absolutely no feel for, even if i only perceive 5 points in my favor.

pep
 

yearofthesnake

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Lower, yes, maybe. -2 GB no.

If this game was at pick'em I am sure that smart money would make TB favorite. These games are alweays close to the point that 2-3 pts can make all the difference in smart money playing TB.

The data and GB's better play, +3pts, says that they're a good play. I don't think I'm sold with GB though, even though they have some advantagous factors pointing to them.
 

Woodson

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Oct 23, 1999
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Great discussion guys...

What are your thoughts about going in on this one with the idea of middling? Getting Green Bay +3 here and by game time if there hasn't been a two point line move towards GB, something is definitely brewing... Worth $50 to cash a $1000. What do you think?
 

spanky2

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Feb 23, 2001
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This would be PRIME middle spot..I would be SHOCKED if all do not see it your way.You have a logical play and good luck..Spanky..
 

yyz

Under .500
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Mar 16, 2000
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No sir!

As a matter af fact, I have friends who love to hate me when I bet against the Packers.

"How can you bet against them?" they ask.

I tell them, "Simple. The Packers don't pay my bills."

You will see me bet against them, too.

They are the team that I follow closest, so I am usually confident in my plays on them. This season, I have not seen a play against them, yet.

[This message has been edited by yyz (edited 10-05-2001).]
 

husvus

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Aug 20, 2001
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sunny beaches of S.C.
Tampa Bay's total defensive collapse in the waning minutes versus the Vikes (at best an average team at this point) spoke volumes, to me at least, about their intensity and committment.

Will they be able to "right the ship this week"? I don't think so. Something smells about this team right now.




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Hugh's Views
 

Senor Capper

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Nov 14, 2000
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Ya think A.Green will run against TB ?
I have a toss-up whether or not to start him or C.Dillon @ Pitt.

I think neither will do me any good but aint got much of a choice.

I will be rooting for GB regrdless.
 
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