First post ever. Thanks for reading and commenting.
One can currently find the Ravens at 2:1. I think this offers good value. I really liked them with the money line last week. (you can't tell me that they had less than a 50% chance of winning that game.)
Anyway, I think quarterback-wise this game is a real toss-up, not because they're both bad or both good, but because they both have a lot of variables. Grbac has really entered "dilfer mode" where he has made sure his fades are out of reach to all but the receiver, he's led some guys way too much and thrown some screens in the dirt just out of fear of the INT. If the ravens fall behind by 10 or more, and he has to throw riskier passes, there could be trouble (if down by 10 at the half, maybe a half-time bet on PITT). I'm still not sold on Kordell. I just don't think he has the nerves for big games. He has been rather lackluster in the post season in his career, even at home.
Running wise, the Bus may or may not be healthy. Its hard to judge if he's been resting up for this anticipated matchup or if he's really HAD to sit out. But even if he is healthy, he's always has trouble against the Raven's D. His up-the-middle strength is neutralized by the ravens big front, and ray lewis's power (ability to stand the bus up). The ravens weakness against runners who get outside is neutralized by bettis' weakness when he starts moving east-west. I'm more worried about Zeroue getting a lot of carries.
Raven's rushing game is still a variable. Their offensive line really started to look good in december after they had played several games together as a unit, but looked weak against Pitt, and TB, but good against MIA. Still if Ogden has a good game, they can run the ball, and their backs have gotten better at picking up blitzers. The right side in pass-rush can be very weak though, but was strong against miami.
Defense, I'm giving the nod to the Ravens. Since this is getting long-winded, I'll simply say: their defense playing its best is better than anyone else's defense playing its best. I expect to see their best this weekend, but I'm really worried about some of the receiver-corner mathcups. Miami not having Chambers was *huge* last weekend (when I heard that for a fact, on Sunday, I dumped my dough on the ravens +115). Starks has had an off-year and McAllister didn't exactly become Deion II this season.
At the heart of what the moneyline means, if you think the ravens have a better than 33% shot at winning this game, the +200 is a good value (it was 200 at SIA, now its down to 195. shop around soon to try to get yours).
[fwiw: I think balto 11:2 to win the AFC has value, esp. when you throw in the hedge factor. If they win this weekend, they won't be 2:1 at either NE or OAK, so get that 11:2 now if you're going to do it at all. Shoot, they could be close to even money at NE if that scenario plays out.]
TheShrimp
One can currently find the Ravens at 2:1. I think this offers good value. I really liked them with the money line last week. (you can't tell me that they had less than a 50% chance of winning that game.)
Anyway, I think quarterback-wise this game is a real toss-up, not because they're both bad or both good, but because they both have a lot of variables. Grbac has really entered "dilfer mode" where he has made sure his fades are out of reach to all but the receiver, he's led some guys way too much and thrown some screens in the dirt just out of fear of the INT. If the ravens fall behind by 10 or more, and he has to throw riskier passes, there could be trouble (if down by 10 at the half, maybe a half-time bet on PITT). I'm still not sold on Kordell. I just don't think he has the nerves for big games. He has been rather lackluster in the post season in his career, even at home.
Running wise, the Bus may or may not be healthy. Its hard to judge if he's been resting up for this anticipated matchup or if he's really HAD to sit out. But even if he is healthy, he's always has trouble against the Raven's D. His up-the-middle strength is neutralized by the ravens big front, and ray lewis's power (ability to stand the bus up). The ravens weakness against runners who get outside is neutralized by bettis' weakness when he starts moving east-west. I'm more worried about Zeroue getting a lot of carries.
Raven's rushing game is still a variable. Their offensive line really started to look good in december after they had played several games together as a unit, but looked weak against Pitt, and TB, but good against MIA. Still if Ogden has a good game, they can run the ball, and their backs have gotten better at picking up blitzers. The right side in pass-rush can be very weak though, but was strong against miami.
Defense, I'm giving the nod to the Ravens. Since this is getting long-winded, I'll simply say: their defense playing its best is better than anyone else's defense playing its best. I expect to see their best this weekend, but I'm really worried about some of the receiver-corner mathcups. Miami not having Chambers was *huge* last weekend (when I heard that for a fact, on Sunday, I dumped my dough on the ravens +115). Starks has had an off-year and McAllister didn't exactly become Deion II this season.
At the heart of what the moneyline means, if you think the ravens have a better than 33% shot at winning this game, the +200 is a good value (it was 200 at SIA, now its down to 195. shop around soon to try to get yours).
[fwiw: I think balto 11:2 to win the AFC has value, esp. when you throw in the hedge factor. If they win this weekend, they won't be 2:1 at either NE or OAK, so get that 11:2 now if you're going to do it at all. Shoot, they could be close to even money at NE if that scenario plays out.]
TheShrimp
