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10/09/06
NCAA Recap and MNF Prediction

The weekend once again provided football bettors with stellar action. There were two big upsets on the college gridiron that left chalk bettors shaking their heads and puppy pounders smiling.

Thursday, Daniel Evans threw three touchdown passes to lead the Wolfpack to a 24-20 victory over then No. 17 Florida State, the second straight Atlantic Coast Conference win for a team that appeared to be going nowhere just a few weeks ago. The Wolfpack are now 2-2 ATS.

The Seminoles find themselves slipping further down the ACC's Atlantic Division standings, creating a difficult road for them to return to the league championship game. As well, they fall to a money-dropping 2-3 ATS.

Saturday, with a swarming defense and unstoppable tailbacks, the Razorbacks knocked off then No. 2 Auburn in a stunningly one-sided 27-10 victory that will rearrange the top of the rankings.

Arkansas entered as 15-point underdogs and left with the SEC West lead. The victory was a cover win that sent Arkansas backers to the ticket window for the first time this season.

Auburn becomes the first top-10 team to lose to an unranked opponent this season, a huge blow to its national title hopes. The Tigers Auburn had won 20 of its last 21 games SU against SEC opponents and was chasing its second undefeated season in three years. ATS they are now 3-3.

Note: Central Michigan (6-0 ATS) and East Carolina (5-0 ATS) are the only remaining NCAA teams who have yet to drop the cash this season.

Are You Ready for Some Football?

Tonight, the Baltimore Ravens look to stay undefeated when they visit the Denver Broncos (2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS) on MNF. Baltimore is 4-0 (3-1 ATS) for the first time in franchise history, thanks to a stout defense and the veteran leadership of QB Steve McNair, who has engineered consecutive game-winning drives to keep the Ravens unbeaten.

After 11 seasons with Tennessee, McNair was traded by the rebuilding Titans to Baltimore in June for a draft pick. The Ravens needed a leader for their offense after floundering with Kyle Boller under center and McNair - a three-time Pro Bowler and former league MVP - fit the bill.

It doesn't always look pretty, but McNair usually finds a way to win. He was 81-59 as the Titans starter, leading the team to four playoff appearances and a Super Bowl berth following the 1999 season. He has just a 75.4 passer rating this year, but the Ravens are alone in first place in the AFC North. The Broncos and Tennessee are the two teams McNair has never faced.

Baltimore's defense ranks second in the NFL with just 219.0 yards allowed per game, including a league-best 63.2 on the ground. Tonight, they will again need to be strong if they are going to be successful in Denver, because they are a dismal 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games.

After its dominating victory over the Patriots, Denver had a bye last week, but the Broncos believe they won't be rusty against the Ravens. If not, they will be able to build on a 7-2 ATS mark vs. a team with a winning record. As well, they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. AFC opponents. Denver has won 11 straight at Invesco Field, including a 12-10 victory over Baltimore on Dec. 11.

Notable game trends:

- Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
- Ravens are 3-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Ravens are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 night games.
- Ravens are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
- Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
- Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 night games.
- Broncos are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games in October.
- Broncos are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Prediction - Baltimore 13 Denver 24

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