THE RUN

[Hooks]

It's no secret that teams that RUN the ball, control the line of scrimmage,control the clock,and most importantly COVER the spread.

We need to as a group, list the teams in their particular match-ups who are the most likely to RUN the ball. The more attempts the better.These running teams eventually wear down their opponents in the 4th. qtr.

Look back at some of your boxscores you may have.You'll see that the running teams not only win, but cover.

It is sometimes difficult to predict who is going to run vs. a particular team,but I feel with all the knowledge we have here we can do a good job locating these running teams.

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let element-x be with us

 

[Hooks]

With the limited stats,I've come up with these teams that will be able to RUN the ball Sunday:

Atlanta (134 yds.) vs. Carolina
New York Jets (135 yds.) vs. New England
Green Bay (179 yds.) vs. Washington

These teams ran the ball well in week 1:
Buffalo-125 yds.
Colts-154 yds.
Cinn.-157 yds.
S.D.-133 yds.
Denver-143 yds.

These defenses stopped the run week 1:
Oakland-35 yds.
Tenn.-82 yds.
Balt.-56 yds.
Cinn.-68 yds.
Bears-54 yds.
S.D.-44 yhds.
Dall.-71 yds.
St.L.-57 yds.
Philly-82 yds.
Denver-63 yds.
G.B.-56 yds.

Carolina,N.E. and Wash. didn't stop the run week 1.

Anyone have anything to add?




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let element-x be with us

 

[ESQAJM]

I like these stats. It gives you a different angle to look at when handicapping. I'd like to see it every week. Let's see how the W-L ratio holds up.

 

[Hooks]

Went 2-1 myself(played the Skins)

,But went 3-0 with these RUNNING teams!
There's something to this,and with the overwelming help this week,I know we can keep this going

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let element-x be with us

 

[Allnet]

Take us to school, buy the books, and some still don't read. WTG, good info, keep it coming Hooks.

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"A group is better than any individual"

 

[Never Caught Up]

Excellent insight, Hooks. Excellent.

 

[Hooks]

Dudes,We as a GROUP need to focus on this. For those of you who don't know what I do for a living,I install exibits for the convention industry.Lots of hours when were in the busy season here in Vegas.(after Christmas thru middle of July-mid August thru mid-December)
Since 9-

-01,we've had a couple of BIG shows cancelled.Today I finally went back to work!Ironically,this is the World Gaming Show.
Anyway,I'm not going to be able to see football this weekend as this show opens Monday,so I absolutly will do all I can as time will allow.
If we all can contribute to this(you'll see it's sometimes difficult to be 100% sure that one team will do what you expect)and perhaps combine it with say,just pick the winner we should see $$$



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let element-x be with us

 

[4bubba]

Hooks
Good theory on the run.

I work for the convention industry at Bally's/Paris casino. Its been slow here to. I have had more time for football.

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indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[casper]

teams that stopped the run:

team,total yds allowed, first 2 opponents
Balt 123 Chic Cinc
GB 127 Det Wash
Cinc 132 NE Balt
Minn 138 Car Chic
SD 145 Wash Dall
Den 147 NYG Ariz

Teams that got pounded:

team, total yds given up, opponents
Det 318 GB Cleve
Wash 293 SD GB
Indy 283 NYJ Buff
NE 268 Cinc NYJ
NYJ 261 Indy NE
SF 249 Atl StL
Buff 246 NO Indy
NYG 231 Den NE
Car 230 Minn Atl

teams that ran well:

GB 339
Indy 291
Den 290
Buff 270
SD 263
Atl 255
NYJ 249
Clev 229

the trouble with these stats is that alot of the teams that ran the ball well got alot of those yds with big leads trying to run out the clock (indy, gb, den), so you have to use the info carefully. conversely, alot of teams that stopped the run thus far played poor running teams (balt, gb, minn for ex have stopped the run well against poor teams)


some other useful info, give-away/take-aways:

team t/o diff

Det -7
Balt -5
Minn -5
Dall -5
Pitt -3

Clev +6
NYJ +5
SD +4
GB +4
Car +3
NO +3
Den +3

 

[twofingers]

A little under half of Buffalos rushing yards vs. NO came when Johnson was runnig for his life. RB's avged only 2.9 I believe.

 

[pepin46]

hooks

when you first posted this, i did not pay much attention. now that the games are over, you look like a genius. will this trend keep up? do you have to average from hereonin? and will it get to the point in another week or so, where both opponents will have pluses or minuses, thereby having only one or two plays until eventually there will be none.
i do believe so, so if it works, i think all interested should make the most of it while they can.

this is what i came up with from your numbers:

buff/indy-since they both did well, cancel
s.d./dallas-both did well, cancel
balt/cinci-both did well, cancel

and this is what is left (vs. the line):

atlanta- solid win
jets -win
g.b. -solid win
denver- solid win
oak -bye
tenn-loss
chi-solid win
stlouis-loss
phil-solid win

total 6-2. not bad. what strikes me the most is that these wins were ample, not just late minute lucky strikes, except maybe the jets.

i do believe the writing was on the wall on these games, as your figures are reflected in other ways as well. about the only surprise for me was denver's outstanding effort away (with a lot of help from ariz) and the jets looking sort of mediocre.

a lot of talk is centering around the looking forward to the next game, and it looks like at least for now, that is not happening. also, the "taking this game lightly" approach is not working either. maybe later on in the season. that was my reasoning for going with ariz to a certain extent, and the opposite is my reason for a strong lean toward g.b. this week.


pep

 

[Hooks]

Thanks to Casper,that's what i'm talk'in bout!As you guys can see,all we can try to do is to decifer what teams will have sucess running the ball.
I feel as we go on into the season, we'll come up with more ways to uncover these teams.

It looks to me there are 2 plays this week:
Green Bay-only problem I see may be that they look ahead to Tampa Bay next week.You could say the same thing for Carolina on a smaller basis,they have S.F. next week at home,however the Panthers better be focused on G.B. or their gonna get their butts kicked.

Atlanta-Cards gave up 147yds to Denver last week,now the get J. Anderson and perhaps some M. Vick.Arizona gets to go to Philly next week,while Atlanta gets to host the Bears.

Pepin46,thanks for your input also.I do feel it will be a running ave.throughout the season.We can take this one step further by adding which of the two teams have the best offensive lines.This is obvious,however,when we can pinpoint the o.l. thats going to dominate the d.l. $$$


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let element-x be with us

 

[Hooks]

So far so good,

This week, I'll bring up a couple of running systems,courtesy of sillysports.

Def. Line Of Scrimmage Edge:
How it works...The criteria for a play(on team A)is as follows:
Team A allows less than 120 yds per game rushing(top 10 rushing defense)
They are playing team B who is averaging more than 120 yds rushing(top 10 rushing offense)and LESS than 195 yds passing(bottom 10 passing offense)
In order to qualify as a play, Team A must be a dog or a favoriteof less than a T.D.

The logic being the good rushing defense of Team A will likely shutdown Team Bs good running game and Team B will have virtually no passing game to fall back on,not to mention the fact that it's hard to pass effectively when you can't run.

I've come up with only one solid play :
San Diego - 3

The 2nd running system:
Offensive Line of Scrimmage Edge-

Play on Team A if it averages more than 120 yds. and is playing Team B, who gives up more than 120 yds rushing.Same pointspread qualifications as above.

Logic-Teams that control the line of scrimmage contol the game.

Buff.+4 is possibe play(not sure yet)
St.L. is possible ,however their laying D.D.

Running teams I'll be looking at this week are:
San Diego-3
Atlanta-3(the Falcons will most likely rally around their new running back,especially in the first game,now that Jamal's out)
Green Bay+3




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let element-x be with us

 

[pepin46]

hooks

the 3 teams you mentioned are among my top five picks this week, although i am not looking at the running stats exclusively.

all 3 have shown superior abilities and have left plenty of room to spare vs. the line, thus exceeding expectations amply. it stands to reason that as a coming game gets tougher for any number of reasons, that prior performance will keep them in the game, even if the game doesn't develop as expected.

i just thought of nolan's critical half-points, a theme that i have argued with him, but i sure would feel a lot better with atlanta -2 1/2. i touched upon the absence of anderson in the other folder and hope to get some feedback before making it a final pick.

the g.b. is a classic: for ats streak meeting
against ats. result should be predictable.


pep

 

[Hooks]

I hope they get there for us my friend

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let element-x be with us