Theoretical Question?

[a-train]

Going along with Nolan's correlated parlays idea I was wondering if you see an increase in value on teasers when you place them across key numbers. For example wouldn't Nolan's two picks so far make a solid teaser if you so desired because you would be getting Arizona +13 a key number for sides and over 38 a key number for totals. It seems to strike me than in this example your chances would be a little better than the 68% predicted. Just pontificating--any thoughts appreciated. I have been doing poorly on teasers but think they can be a valuable handicapping tool.
Any thoughts always welcome.
GL

 

[PacMan]

Personally, I wouldn't tease a total that's at 44. You just aren't gaining enough. I think, if you want to tease a total, do it on the small ones. Tampa/Tennessee Under 39.0 seems to me a safer bet than Denver/Seattle Over 38.0. In fact, I'm tempted to tease that Ten/TB under.

*Maybe* if the total is 42.5. Getting over 36.5 is much nicer than 38. 38 has only happened twice this year. 37 has happened four times, and I believe is more common.

I dunno. I'd rather not tease totals at all. So much could happen, but the team that plays better will win most often. The team that wins covers most often. I'd rather concentrate on teasing the line, if anything.

I don't like Ari +13 too big, just because the total is at 40. With the Bears offense waking up with Miller at the helm, this game could easily go over that. There are too many total scores that add up to 44. I feel more comfortable teasing a team when the total is lower.

Note that I have no numbers to back this up - just off of the top of my head.

Good luck.

 

[dr. freeze]

of course....and the correlation "idea" is nothing new....key numbers in teasers are just as important as they are in the straight up bets.

 

[dr. freeze]

here is a good value teaser for example.....as stated, TB and Tennessee

Value play w/correlation -- probably going to be a low scoring game. Points are at a premium -- thus, 7 points as a percentage of the total -- is more valuable at 33 or 34 than it is at 44 -- You can move the total up by a greater percentage.

Also, If this game is low scoring, the spread should be small between the teams. So I like to take TB +10 and UNDER 40. Great value play in a teaser here....

I also listed earlier only two separate plays which show correlation in each other.....B-More/UNDER/TB/Under. Taking 13 points on each side and total. Of course there is no correlation between the games, but I believe that there is strong correlation within the game.

Anyways -- it is a strong play in my opinion which I already listed several threads down......

 

[PacMan]

Originally posted by dr. freeze:
So I like to take TB +10 and UNDER 40. Great value play in a teaser here....

I couldn't agree more. On a (predicted) low scoring, close game, taking the dog and the under is the best teaser you can find.




[This message has been edited by PacMan (edited 10-10-2001).]

 

[dr. freeze]

yep -- i like the play.......

also hit key numbers on it in 10 and 40.

Do not see either of these anemic offenses doing anything this weekend. The play, is definitely one to take a hard look at.

Tennessee is just very unimpressive. And then so is the Bucs offense. Look to see a similar game as we did in Baltimore last weekend except less points by TB offense....

 

[ironlock]

Dont let the results of the first few weeks slant your thinking. 38 is a HUGE number in totals, I would put it a close second to 37.

24-14
21-17
28-10
31-7

The reason 37 is the most important, is that is not only protects your wager, because of the likelyhood of a push, but because of the likelihood of it falling on numbers just above and below it 35, 36, but more importantly 38. 38 it the next key number after 37 because it is the last number(heading upward) that really protects a wager, if it goes over, its likely to go over by more than one or two, which makes an over play that much harder.

What I mean is that 39,40, and 41 are not that different from each other, and take less money to move from one to another. A move from 37 to 38 takes much, much more action. 38 is the best number for an UNDER PLAY in my opinion, 37 is equally good for the over or the under.

Just my thoughts, correct me if Im wrong.

 

[dr. freeze]

yeah - I agree but the move from 33 to 40 takes care of 37,38 and also scores such as 22-18....lol....23-17 i guess is about the only one......27-13 might get hit a few times.....