Everyone knows that I am an Arizona fan, but there are several reasons to take Arizona in the game against Oklahoma IMO:
Arizona has a small height advantage. . . Oklahoma relies on outrebounding their opponents to win games. While the Sooners may end up with a small advantage on the boards, I can't see them dominating the glass when Arizona's big men have been playing so well as of late. While height does not mean everything, I feel the Cats match up very well with their frontcourt.
Sooners are struggling from behind the arc. . . I know the Wildcat team well. . . the way to beat them is to drain 3's early in the game in order to push the zone defense the Wildcats will use out to the perimiter in order to open up the frontcourt. Unfortunately, hitting 20% (as the Sooners have in their recent games) will not get the job done and the Cats will gladly allow such a percentage in order to plug up the floor underneath the basket. Even if the Wildcats happen to go man to man, their defense has always allowed open looks along the 3 point arc. The Sooners will have to nail these shots and punish the Cats or else it could be a long night for them.
Luke Walton. . . Oklahoma plays amazing defense. Absolutely no question about it. In my opinion it will be up to Luke Walton for Arizona to break down this defense and create the few easy looks that the Cats may find at the basket. I would be interested in hearing if others believe the Sooners have played a team with a similar catalyst as Walton is for Arizona. If they haven't played such a team, I feel this is a strength that Arizona brings to the table in order to break down this tough defense that other teams do not have.
Reason to bet against Arizona:
Oklahoma plays a physical game that Arizona is not used to playing. Of course one could say that Arizona plays an up tempo game that the Sooners haven't seen, but I think Kansas more than qualifies as a test to what they can expect from the Wildcats. An obvious key for Arizona is their perimeter shooting just like it will be for Oklahoma. The team that drains the long shot I feel has an incredible advantage in this game because it will force the opposing defense to adjust and allow for other areas on the floor (especially the paint) to open up.
In the end though, physical teams usually lose NCAA tournament games to teams that have a speed advantage against them (don't take this to the bank, but it is my experience that this is the case). While I am concerned that Arizona may face Missouri or ahead to Duke in the Final Four where they could easily lose to either team given their 3 point shooting capabilities, I just do not see the Sooners presenting the same problem.
I feel the Arizona ML holds the best value for this game. . .I will probably lay off given my bias and that winning or losing this game will be enough without having money on the game but I still feel that the Wildcats are a strong play here.
Games that I will be on:
Pitt taking 1 over Kent: Others will believe this to be a trap but I feel that Pitt has the defense to slow Kent and win this game.
Duke laying 13 over Indiana: Just feel that the Hoosiers will fall in a similar fashion as they did to Kentucky earlier this year. Duke will have to be on top of their game though to cover but I feel they will get it done.
Good luck all and play the Wildcats ML
Arizona has a small height advantage. . . Oklahoma relies on outrebounding their opponents to win games. While the Sooners may end up with a small advantage on the boards, I can't see them dominating the glass when Arizona's big men have been playing so well as of late. While height does not mean everything, I feel the Cats match up very well with their frontcourt.
Sooners are struggling from behind the arc. . . I know the Wildcat team well. . . the way to beat them is to drain 3's early in the game in order to push the zone defense the Wildcats will use out to the perimiter in order to open up the frontcourt. Unfortunately, hitting 20% (as the Sooners have in their recent games) will not get the job done and the Cats will gladly allow such a percentage in order to plug up the floor underneath the basket. Even if the Wildcats happen to go man to man, their defense has always allowed open looks along the 3 point arc. The Sooners will have to nail these shots and punish the Cats or else it could be a long night for them.
Luke Walton. . . Oklahoma plays amazing defense. Absolutely no question about it. In my opinion it will be up to Luke Walton for Arizona to break down this defense and create the few easy looks that the Cats may find at the basket. I would be interested in hearing if others believe the Sooners have played a team with a similar catalyst as Walton is for Arizona. If they haven't played such a team, I feel this is a strength that Arizona brings to the table in order to break down this tough defense that other teams do not have.
Reason to bet against Arizona:
Oklahoma plays a physical game that Arizona is not used to playing. Of course one could say that Arizona plays an up tempo game that the Sooners haven't seen, but I think Kansas more than qualifies as a test to what they can expect from the Wildcats. An obvious key for Arizona is their perimeter shooting just like it will be for Oklahoma. The team that drains the long shot I feel has an incredible advantage in this game because it will force the opposing defense to adjust and allow for other areas on the floor (especially the paint) to open up.
In the end though, physical teams usually lose NCAA tournament games to teams that have a speed advantage against them (don't take this to the bank, but it is my experience that this is the case). While I am concerned that Arizona may face Missouri or ahead to Duke in the Final Four where they could easily lose to either team given their 3 point shooting capabilities, I just do not see the Sooners presenting the same problem.
I feel the Arizona ML holds the best value for this game. . .I will probably lay off given my bias and that winning or losing this game will be enough without having money on the game but I still feel that the Wildcats are a strong play here.
Games that I will be on:
Pitt taking 1 over Kent: Others will believe this to be a trap but I feel that Pitt has the defense to slow Kent and win this game.
Duke laying 13 over Indiana: Just feel that the Hoosiers will fall in a similar fashion as they did to Kentucky earlier this year. Duke will have to be on top of their game though to cover but I feel they will get it done.
Good luck all and play the Wildcats ML
