This weekend

[JEFF]

Going with a few stinkers and (of course) a few contrarian plays, so I'm sure you guys will disagree with some of them, but thats what its all about anyways, right? Well, actually its all about kicking :moon: , and making some $$

OK, thats far too much rambling ...

YTD 14-9, but -4 units as the small and mid-sized ones have won and the biggies have lost. Fortunately, my accounts are a different story.

UMD +14.5, 4 units

Going against the grain here. The Terps as motivated as theyre gonna get, and I think they make this a close one. FSU pass 'D' is highly suspect. MD will throw to set up the run and you can expect some tricks from Friedgen.

The UMD program has taken some big steps but they need this win to be legit. Friedgen is wary about people jumping off the bandwagon. His players could have, amybe even should have beaten FSU last year, but choked. But the fear factor should be gone. We shall see.

Oh yeah, home team has covered 9 of last 10 in the series.

Akron +2, 5 units

Like this one a lot. Desperate 0-2 HD. Akron was expected to be the better team than CMU in the preseason. They've been manhandled by Iowa and MD, while CMU has beaten a couple of crap teams.
Akron's passing game is a good one, and Frye has some serious talent. Great value here because of the huge margin of the Zips' two losses. I think Akron wins fairly easy.

Back in a bit with more ...

 

[JEFF]

California +14, 5 units

Good value and a good situation here for the Golden Bears. Boller looking good and I like the new coach. Their offense has been great against a couple of bad teams, but a team that can score 70 points should be able to stay within 14, especially with one of the most experienced defenses in the PAC 10.

The main thing that attracted me to this game was the look ahead factor: MSU has Notre Dame next week,and their instate rival UM has them this week. The look ahead is in effect. MSU has failed to cover each of last 2 years before ND game. Also lost 4 straight ATS vs. PAC 10.

I think CAL has a slight chance at the SU upset, so I gotta take them getting the 14. Also, MSU appears to be the public play:

California 82 39.23% +14 Michigan St 127 60.77%

 

[g-hawg]

Gotta agree with the Golden Bears. a whole lotta experience on the "D". Really should keep this game close.

 

[JEFF]

Hold your nose!!

Hold your nose!!

Nevada +14.5, 4 units

Everybody is looking at BYU as a gimme this weekend. You know what that usually means.

Here's the consensus from wgareline:
9/14/02 23 Byu 140 80.46% -15 Nevada 34 19.54% Detail

Well why hasn't this line gone up then? Hmmm...

Also, BYU is 2-12 ATS in last 14 road openers. Nevada has had two weeks to recover from a shellacking against WSU. I'll take them to make a game out of this.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

GL Jeff,

Akron looks like a team that I will be on this weekend as well...

 

[JEFF]

You know what that means

 

[JEFF]

Wake Forest + 14, 4 units

Another dog of about 14. In fact, I havent pulled the trigger yet in hopes of finding 14 or 14.5. This line may yet move a bit more.

((NOTE: edited, just got the +14 at thebigbook))

I really like Jim Grobe as a coach. Wake Forest has played in nine consecutive games decided by seven points or less. The Demon Deacons are 5-4 in those games. Twelve of Grobe's 13 games at the school have been decided by 10 points or fewer.

Pass defense and rushing/T.O.P. will be key for the Deacs. They also still have to make up for that loss to NIU in week one. I think they stay within the # against an overvalued NCST team, with a slight chance for the SU upset.

 

[JEFF]

Adding MICH -4, 5 units

ND can't score. Mich doesn't give up the big defensive TDs or special teams TDs. Mich D will smother them and should win by 10.
I still don't believe in ND.

 

[JEFF]

UCONN -2.5, 5 units

Really likeUCONN here. Good value as Buffalo upset sorry Rutgers last week. UCONN is the better team, needs a win badly, and has played relatively well against BC and G.Tech. Buffalo got hammered at home by Lehigh two weeks ago. UCONN RB Terry Cauley will start and is primed for a big game here.


'What the hell' parlay, 2 units:
UCONN-2.5
AKRON+2
REDSKINS +3
FALCONS -3

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Goin against you on a few of those. But GL to you. Hope your effort pays off. It should over time.

 

[pt1gard]

Jeff, et all

Jeff, et all

I am always fascinated by wagerline, etc. where its obvious the public is "crushing" a side yet the line doesnt move or even sometimes slides opposite ...

I would love to hear what the rest of you guys think about this phenomenon?

thanx, gregg

 

[JEFF]

Gregg you may want to start a separate thread on that, I don't know how much other people look at it but I pay close attention.


Adding UMD/FSU over 54.5, 10 units


Absolutely love this one! These teams have gone over this # in 9 of last ten years. UMD on defense will try to stuff FSU run, and its corners will inevitably give up big plays. On offense, they will air it out against FSUs only ?, its secondary.

I see this going over easily. No such thing as a lo*k, but this is my favorite play of the year so far.

 

[Bigdog4242]

Wake VS. NC State

Wake VS. NC State

Jeff,

I like most of your picks but NC State is going to walk all over Wake. Wake has struggled all season long against some real cream puffs. NC St.'s offense is on a roll and it won't take much to stop the horrible wake offense.

NC State wins BIG REAL BIG!!

NC State *3 -13.5
put this in yesterday

Two team parlay

NC State -14 and Michigan -4
300/850

 

[JEFF]

Big Dog, I hear ya, and Wake is not my strongest play. But Grobe and the boys had big expectations this year and I think they'll fight like hell to win this one. Also looking at the stat I mentioned about 12 of 13 by 10 or less.

I am the only person on earth who is on MD and WAKE. Sometimes thats not such a bad thing though. Like MICh a lot, too, good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

i followed your logic

i followed your logic

until i saw you slide the skins in there....i jumped on philly at -1.5.......same scenario as last year...philly loses opener 20-17 to the rams...then travels to seattle and smokes the seahawks 27-3....all roads lead to philly here...did not lose 2 in a row last year.....they better crank up stephen davis,cause shane matthews struggles here.

 

[JEFF]

Gardenweasel

I don't think this is the same Philly team. They lost a lot. Buckhalter, Thomas and Trotter are gone. D Line is thin and the OL lost Welbourn. McNabb is fantastic, though, and certainly Philly could win. But I don't think the deserve to be favored over the skins on the road on MNF, and I think Spurrier does whatever it takes to win.

Also, home dogs are 3-0 on all three prime time games (NYG, HOU NE) with 2 winning SU.

A disclaimer: I am a Skins fan. But I don't think that is influencing me on this one. Good luck.

 

[JEFF]

3-5 on the day, but minus a ton of units. I think its time to just post my NCAA plays and make use of you guys' info, as all season the my higher rated ones have failed while the smaller ones win. Sorry if I steered anyone wrong, ahet to think about losing someone else's cash, bad enough losing some of mine today.

First losing day of the season, and a bad one at that, but too many bad bounces to rehash. Back at it tmw in NFL, GL all.


YTD 17-14 ... - 47,358 units