When this new divisional setup started a few years ago, I predicted that sometime in the not-too-distant future, some team, somewhere would win it's division with a sub-.500 record. I think it's going to happen this year in the NFC North.
Going to eight divisions of just four teams, and having fewer in-division games (just 6 per year per team now instead of 8 as in past years) greatly increases the chances of it happening. When division rivals play each other you are guaranteed that ~someone~ will win these games, which artifically props up the records of these teams. Even if some team in this division manages to go 5-1 within the division, they'd have to go 4-6 outside the division to end up with a winning record...something I just don't see happening.
Look at who the teams in this division have to play against this year. The NFC North is paired with the NFC South, meaning all North teams must play Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans. The Saints may be screwed with no home, but Carolina and Atlanta should be good....and Tampa Bay is looking much improved.
The NFC North is also paired with the AFC North. Everyone will play Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Pitt and Cinci look very good. Balt at least has defence, and all the NFC North teams struggle vs good D as I see it. Cleveland should be a cakewalk at least (ooops...maybe not!!)
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I thought last year's NFC West was about as bad as it could get, the teams being a combined 14 games under .500, but seriously, I think the NFC North shatters that mark this year.
Chicago - This is a very weak squad. I think the game this past weekend was a mirage. Even the crappiest of teams will have a good day along the way, and that game this weekend was it. This team has too many weaknesses to list. The Bears will be lucky to win 4 games.
Green Bay - Favre looks like he may have finally lost his motivation to play. So much personal tragedy in his life the last few years, and this is probably his final season. I see him now and he just looks old and tired, and I think all this family stuff / Hurricane Katrina stuff has just taken it's toll on him. Visitors routinely win @ Lambeau now, especially in the warmer months. The defence continues to get weaker. And Javon Walker is gone for the year. Where is the hope?
Minnesota - Holy cow. Surely Culpepper is not THIS bad. Or is he? Even the best QB's will usually have one terrible season in their careers, and it looks like this might be it for Dante. Supposedly defences are playing against the Vikes completely differently now as they are no longer just shadowing Moss, and Culp is completely confused by it all. Nate Burleson is not the #1 WR on too many teams...but he is with Minny. The defence, as usual, is awful. They've got 6 RB's and none of them is worth a damn. Unless Culpepper can turn it around and single-handedly win games for them, this is another NO HOPE case.
Detroit - I actually like this team EXCEPT for Joey Harrington. He's the anchor around this team's neck. And with Jeff Garcia out for the year, they have no one else to turn to. But Kevin Jones is a decent runner, they have a ton of talent at WR, and I think the defence is underrated. Again, I think this past weekend was a mirage. The Lions are on the upswing in my opinion....not great, but improving.
So....I pick the Lions to win this division - with a record of 7-9 :lol: !!! The first sub-.500 division champion. And as division winners, they will be guaranteed to host a playoff game vs someone who is much better than them, an 11-5 type team that will whip the snot out of them on their own field.
Going to eight divisions of just four teams, and having fewer in-division games (just 6 per year per team now instead of 8 as in past years) greatly increases the chances of it happening. When division rivals play each other you are guaranteed that ~someone~ will win these games, which artifically props up the records of these teams. Even if some team in this division manages to go 5-1 within the division, they'd have to go 4-6 outside the division to end up with a winning record...something I just don't see happening.
Look at who the teams in this division have to play against this year. The NFC North is paired with the NFC South, meaning all North teams must play Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans. The Saints may be screwed with no home, but Carolina and Atlanta should be good....and Tampa Bay is looking much improved.
The NFC North is also paired with the AFC North. Everyone will play Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Pitt and Cinci look very good. Balt at least has defence, and all the NFC North teams struggle vs good D as I see it. Cleveland should be a cakewalk at least (ooops...maybe not!!)
.I thought last year's NFC West was about as bad as it could get, the teams being a combined 14 games under .500, but seriously, I think the NFC North shatters that mark this year.
Chicago - This is a very weak squad. I think the game this past weekend was a mirage. Even the crappiest of teams will have a good day along the way, and that game this weekend was it. This team has too many weaknesses to list. The Bears will be lucky to win 4 games.
Green Bay - Favre looks like he may have finally lost his motivation to play. So much personal tragedy in his life the last few years, and this is probably his final season. I see him now and he just looks old and tired, and I think all this family stuff / Hurricane Katrina stuff has just taken it's toll on him. Visitors routinely win @ Lambeau now, especially in the warmer months. The defence continues to get weaker. And Javon Walker is gone for the year. Where is the hope?
Minnesota - Holy cow. Surely Culpepper is not THIS bad. Or is he? Even the best QB's will usually have one terrible season in their careers, and it looks like this might be it for Dante. Supposedly defences are playing against the Vikes completely differently now as they are no longer just shadowing Moss, and Culp is completely confused by it all. Nate Burleson is not the #1 WR on too many teams...but he is with Minny. The defence, as usual, is awful. They've got 6 RB's and none of them is worth a damn. Unless Culpepper can turn it around and single-handedly win games for them, this is another NO HOPE case.
Detroit - I actually like this team EXCEPT for Joey Harrington. He's the anchor around this team's neck. And with Jeff Garcia out for the year, they have no one else to turn to. But Kevin Jones is a decent runner, they have a ton of talent at WR, and I think the defence is underrated. Again, I think this past weekend was a mirage. The Lions are on the upswing in my opinion....not great, but improving.
So....I pick the Lions to win this division - with a record of 7-9 :lol: !!! The first sub-.500 division champion. And as division winners, they will be guaranteed to host a playoff game vs someone who is much better than them, an 11-5 type team that will whip the snot out of them on their own field.
