Thoughts About Opening Night Totals

[Nolan Dalla]

Thinking out loud here about tonight's games....

One thing I look for when handicapping NBA games are situations that are completely out of the norm. "Opening night" certainly qualifies as a unique, one-time situation. Emotions run higher than usual. Teammates are not totally comfortable with each other, and have yet to face real game pressure with a new cast of teammates (in many cases). Home crowds are more excited. Even the referees are making adjustments for the long season ahead.

I believe the lack of repetition to-date (pre-season games are essentially scrimmages) detracts from offensive production in the early stages of the season. Then, as a week or so goes by -- teams begin to gel and get in synch offensively. That's my theory, anyway.

To support the theory, I went back the last three seasons and collected data. I looked at the closing Las Vegas totals against the actual points scored for each game.

It appears that oddsmakers -- have been and continue to -- weigh the totals somewhat in favor of the OVER in most cases. Last year, for example, most of the games went UNDER the total. In 1999, the totals were about evenly split. 1998 produced games slightly in favor of the UNDER.

Using "191" as the benchmark total for NBA games, I noted that TEN games last season had opening night final scores of 190 points or less. Only THREE games produced 191 points or greater.

Total points scored from opening night last season:
183
188
168
199
173
190
204
183
181
201
182
190
182

I couldn't help but notice that in tonight's games EIGHT out of TWELVE games have totals in excess of 191. Oddsmakers/public are clearly tilting the numbers in favor of the OVER, and are not paying attention to "rust" factors and values that appear to favor lower-scoring games.

For this reason, I am going to play several UNDERS tonight. I don't have the time or space to get into all the reasons which I chose to fade these games, but I've determined that there appears to be value in taking any UNDER on a game with a total which is 190.5 or higher.

Therefore:

BOS/CLEVE UNDER 190.5
INDY/NJ UNDER 191.5
TOR/ORL UNDER 195.5
DET/DALL UNDER 202.5
ATL/HOU UNDER 191.5
DENV/PHX UNDER 193
SEA/SACR UNDER 200
PORT/LAL UNDER 193

Here's to a winning season!

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Z-MAN]

Good luck Nolan. I'm on the Wiz and the over. I like your strategy for tonight.

Good luck this season!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Z-Man:

I got the Wizards yesterday at +7 ! I love it! I noticed the line is now down to +5.

Wizards might be able to beat NY -- without Jordan. I think the Knicks are going to be out there on the court in awe of the KING, while to the Wizards, Jordan is just another teammate. Ref's will also almost certainly give Jordan plenty of favorable calls.

I'm getting ready to consider a moneyline play on the Wizards, as well.

Good luck with your play.

-- Nolan

 

[Roger]

Nolan,

I like your thought on the unders tonight...I think a lot of the hype about the new rule changes will backfire on the public more so then the books...especially in the first few weeks...I personally think the new changes will have the oppisite effect with lower scoring games overall...how can you allow a zone defense and more hand checking...and think it's going to boost scoring? I like most of the unders you posted except for the TOR/ORL and ATL/HOU games...I think those games have more potential to go over then the rest...

GL!

 

[yyz]

Nolan,

I am going to blindly follow you tonight for the 1st time.

I like what you have to say, more often than not, and this makes sense.

I have not a single clue about any of these games, as I don't cap basketball for the first week or so. I like to see how it starts to shape up.

I am going to put $50 on each of your selections, and see what happens.

Thanks for putting in the effort, once again.

 

[a-train]

Nolan
Nice NFL weekend and thank you for all your picks and all the time you spend on this site--we all appreciate it!
I wanted to ask you about the playing of NBA teams coming off a 20 pt loss in the NBA--what were the exact figures? I remember you made a few of these last year.
Thanks
Adam

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Originally posted by yyz:
Nolan,

I am going to blindly follow you tonight for the 1st time.

I like what you have to say, more often than not, and this makes sense.

I have not a single clue about any of these games, as I don't cap basketball for the first week or so. I like to see how it starts to shape up.

I am going to put $50 on each of your selections, and see what happens.

Thanks for putting in the effort, once again.

_____________________________


REPLY: Obviously, this is one of those angles where you should be very happy to go 5-3 for the night, thus netting a decent profit. I have used these angles with some success in the past, but the last time I tried an across-the-board play like this, I lost nearly 2K. I touted every UNDER in major league baseball the game following the week long interruption, expecting rested pitching staffs to dominate hitting. I got killed. So -- while this angle is appealing for all the right reasons, ANYTHING is possible. Thanks for your trust YYZ.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[yyz]

Holy shit!

You didn't call me "XYZ"!!!!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Originally posted by a-train:
Nolan
Nice NFL weekend and thank you for all your picks and all the time you spend on this site--we all appreciate it!
I wanted to ask you about the playing of NBA teams coming off a 20 pt loss in the NBA--what were the exact figures? I remember you made a few of these last year.
Thanks
Adam

________________________________

Adam:

I will be doing write-ups on NBA games later on, and will concentrate more heavily on the NBA after January 1st (end of NFL regular season). I don't have all of my data out right now, so forgive me if I'm not able to answer your question. I also want to acknowledge that there are a few trend players out there (you know who you are) who have successfully uncovered some solid betting angles (taking teams in the situation you described). I have compiled a list of these trends and will be looking to use them as the season progresses. If I can find the answer to your question, I will post it. Perhaps someone else here is better suited to give you some specifics.

Best Wishes,

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[TEXAS]

For what it's worth. Last season in the NBA, for the 1st several weeks the under was a dominate play. I remember watching it, but never having the balls to just bet all of the unders across the board. It lasted for a 3 week period or so and then the numbers got back on track. I don't know if we will see a similar trend at the beginning of this season or not, but I plan on keeping an eye on it.

Oh by the way, Nolan thanks for the Pitt pick last night. I picked up a nickel on it and I rarely go higher than a dollar per play. I just couldn't help myself, and your analysis helped me pull the profitable trigger.

 

[Z-MAN]

good opening night as I went 3-1. I added the Celtics as I thought it was a dominant play in this forum across the board. I did lose a prop bet (small) on MJ scoring O 28.5...