Thoughts from the group - ML vs. ATS for football

[ryson]

Team Jack,

I had a pretty poor year last year betting football ATS, I was thinking of changing gears and playing the ML instead of ATS. Granted the coin is a little different, but in my case most teams that I played won but did not cover. Any input/thoughts are appreciated!!

TIA

 

[acehistr8]

Personally I just dont like laying the juice you have to lay to take the ML in most cases. Like even tonight in the SF game at -180ish. I have absolutely no numbers to back this up, but for me its too much to lay.

 

[TheShrimp]

Re: Thoughts from the group - ML vs. ATS for football

Team Jack,

I had a pretty poor year last year betting football ATS, I was thinking of changing gears and playing the ML instead of ATS. Granted the coin is a little different, but in my case most teams that I played won but did not cover. Any input/thoughts are appreciated!!

TIA

Bet more dogs. They cover without winning.

I thought this was going to be about betting ML dogs instead of ATS which I think can be profitable.

Sometimes a 2-pt dog can be a +125 ML dog. So, instead of getting 2 and betting 110 to win 100, you play it straight up and bet 110 to win 137. You'll kick yourself for those times the team loses by 1 or 2, but you're talking about a third of a unit to make up for.

With those ML faves you need to pick winners at a pretty good clip to make money from it, because when you lose, you lose big. Even 3 point faves you are laying -170 to win 100. That means you need to pick 3 point faves at about a 63% clip to come out ahead.

Bump that up to 4.5, where the typical ML is about -200, and you need to pick winners at a 66% clip to break even. I doubt I could pick 7+ point faves at a 66% rate.

If you are that good at picking small faves outright, then go ahead and play the ML's, but personally I think that's a lot to overcome.

 

[acehistr8]

I will tell you that I used to be a huge chalk player in baseball, mostly because it wasnt my sport and I was just learning. After following Jack and a couple of others success I have turned to the dark side and play 99% dogs. I will occassionally take some favs but nothing above -150 or -160 if I can help it.

 

[ryson]

Re: Re: Thoughts from the group - ML vs. ATS for football

Re: Re: Thoughts from the group - ML vs. ATS for football

Bet more dogs. They cover without winning.

I thought this was going to be about betting ML dogs instead of ATS which I think can be profitable.

Sometimes a 2-pt dog can be a +125 ML dog. So, instead of getting 2 and betting 110 to win 100, you play it straight up and bet 110 to win 137. You'll kick yourself for those times the team loses by 1 or 2, but you're talking about a third of a unit to make up for.

With those ML faves you need to pick winners at a pretty good clip to make money from it, because when you lose, you lose big. Even 3 point faves you are laying -170 to win 100. That means you need to pick 3 point faves at about a 63% clip to come out ahead.

Bump that up to 4.5, where the typical ML is about -200, and you need to pick winners at a 66% clip to break even. I doubt I could pick 7+ point faves at a 66% rate.

If you are that good at picking small faves outright, then go ahead and play the ML's, but personally I think that's a lot to overcome.

Thanks Shrimp!! just thinking aloud and wanted some input from the group.