thoughts on Ags stocks, energy, financials, shipping

[selkirk]

Was asked by someone in my shareclub about DRYS at the time around 5.60, these shipping stocks can move 20% in a day or two, or morning...

anyways now at 5.10 currently still my opinion is the same, hate the stock, the debt is so how you need a turn around quckly or face the stock going to zero... this is a very high risk way of playing a sector that is volatile as it is...

Ag stocks heard some comments on the fact that wheat soy corn would be soft, agree with corn as the last to rally, but just remember we have had great crops all over the world for the most part 0last year, and the inventory levels are sill fairly low.
late december have bought and written puts, and covered calls on AGU and Mosaic. AG stocks will work the main risk is a sharp market drop since these are volatile stocks.......

reduced my exposure to energy even more and wrote more uncovered calls, however did write some 42 CNQ feb cdn. and NXY 20puts (bought those back for 3 sold them for 1.50 .....joy.

made good money on the uncovereds, and maybe the cnq put, gave some back on nxy put 20 feb.

financials sold most of my positons, did write a few puts to get in at lower prices, also playing some options on UYG but that goes under anther thread......STUPID....though so far the trade has broken even...and is a small positon.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Was interesting Kirk Thank you. Looked at Drys also and it with several others weak fianaces looked like prime candidates to be forced to quit paying divs--and once that happened they would free fall.Did want to keep one shipping stock while they were dirt cheap for the future--and one I chose is mainly off radar-Esea
Chose it because it had best balance sheet (still has more cash than debt with 58% payout ratio on div. Got good div on it in Dec($200 on 1000 shares) and expect them to continue but probably reduce.
12/23/08 12/23/08 12/23/08 Cash QUAL DIV 1,000 EUROSEAS LTD 1000 ESEA 200.00

I certainly don't like the debt U.S. is taking on and as I mentioned elsewhere I doubt I ever have over 5 or 10% max of U.S. stocks in my portfolio again. I am very uneasy of what lies ahead--if not for China keeping our $ artificially high for their own gain--we would be in deep dodo.

I also don't think our brothers up north like the protectionism rhetoric our new admin been spewing either.
Maybe can you can sell me 1/2 acre plot on your ranch and put me up a mail box and I can open Canadian currency bank account.

 

[baby johnson]

will check pn it

 

[selkirk]

protectionism is always a concern especially for Canada, the recent bill and the clause has been a top news item.

hope the US financial system is fixed the government will have to act quicker.....a market has to be created for this garbage,....the govt. has to try to get one going....and quickly. not an easy problem to fix.

In Canada none of our banks have the problems as deep, though not as much real estate bubble. however most have US operations are and will be effected...hard not to be...

cdn debt is in much better shape than the rest of the G8, though the currency will be hit by resources, as seen as resource currency....and the fear the US will sink lower,...this would effect Canada.

BJ also have a look at BAM, BIP, would not buy them now but nothing like having cash, on hand....
BAM will be hurt by commercial real estate own large amount of brookfield properites, New york commercial real estate....

forgot to mention yamana gold which is finally showing me a profit, would have a gold play...one that is producing... have written 10-12 covered call options...for $1-1.50 each time.... though wish did not write the 10 cdn. last time.

would avoid jr. golds and base metals, only ones that have cash flow. for now...the jrs. are cheap but they can wait.

DTB no small lots like that close, though do not two friends who bought camps for $6000-10000.
actually do not own the land, but the dock, and the small cabin on it... still not bad. rent $1000.
a year, and only open in spring,summer,fall.


cousin is looking at one for 170,000 there you own the land and a huge cottage/house. many times a camp costs more than a house. still cheaper than southern ontario where a camp(there called cottages down there) can cost 500K-to well over 1 million.

thanks
selkirk