It's my understanding there's a technical problem with the daily webpages (FREE PICKS section). They will be updated soon.
In the meantime, here are a few thoughts on tonight's MNF game:
NEW ORLEANS +6 vs. ST. LOUIS
-- Main reason I like New Orleans here is the home MNF dog factor. Add that this is a home, DIVISIONAL MNF dog, and the play seems even stronger. The line at a whopping 6 points is enticing enough to play, since it lands on a key number (5.5 would be not quite as strong).
-- Rams have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF apperances. Their only ATS win was at lowly Detroit earlier this year. Saints don't have much experience in primetime, but they have DEFEATED the Rams 3 out of the last 4 games.
-- Rams were hammered by Tampa Bay at home on MNF three weeks ago and this would normally be a game where the losing team might try to re-assert itself on the national stage in the next appearance. However, I think this game being on the road for the Rams combined with the fact St. Louis is coming off it's biggest win of the years last week (a win versus SFO for the division lead) plays into either a let-down here, or a close game that will be decided by less than a touchdown.
-- Rams are always dangerous offensively, but this unit lacks consistency. QB Warner in particular has not put together a streak of good games, although he's coming off good efforts versus ATL and SFO. This is the Rams third consecutive divisional game -- and being on the road in a city that should be pumped emotionally only adds to the questions.
-- Key for Saints to win/cover here will be RB Williams. He MUST get into the clear and pick up 100+ yards and carry the ball 25 times. Long sustained drives that were used so effectively by the Bucs a few weeks ago will be the blueprint for the Saints (assuming New Orleans coaching staff has any common sense -- which is open to question)
-- Aaron Brooks is always a concern. His play has been erratic at times. Last time Saints were in this spot (a Sunday night game versus NYJ) Brooks played one of the worst games of any QB this season. Since that game, Brooks has plyed well, however and may be maturing in the role as team leader.
-- One concern is the fact the Rams completely DOMINATED Saints in the first half of the meeting in St. Louis. Think of it this way -- THE RAMS COMMITED EIGHT TURNOVERS AND STILL ALMOST WON THE GAME! I doubt the Rams will have the same collpase tonight, nor do I expect the Rams to be able to go into New Orleans and dominate like they did previously. Another concern is that Saints have not looked impressive at home this season -- losing to Atlanta and barely getting by Carolina in recent weeks. I'm counting on the notion that the Saints tend to play to their level of competition -- and thus will play well against the NFC's best team here.
-- I have no thoughts about the total. "51" is actually a key number for above-average NFL totals. A suprizingly high percentage of high-scoring games fall right on 51 (multiple scoring combinatiopns produce several 51 scenarios).
I don't view this as an overly strong play, but I do believe there is enough value in the Saints getting +6 to make a wager.
Best wishes to everyone. I hope the webpage is updated soon. There are several comments relating to this season in the new report.
-- Nolan Dalla
In the meantime, here are a few thoughts on tonight's MNF game:
NEW ORLEANS +6 vs. ST. LOUIS
-- Main reason I like New Orleans here is the home MNF dog factor. Add that this is a home, DIVISIONAL MNF dog, and the play seems even stronger. The line at a whopping 6 points is enticing enough to play, since it lands on a key number (5.5 would be not quite as strong).
-- Rams have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five MNF apperances. Their only ATS win was at lowly Detroit earlier this year. Saints don't have much experience in primetime, but they have DEFEATED the Rams 3 out of the last 4 games.
-- Rams were hammered by Tampa Bay at home on MNF three weeks ago and this would normally be a game where the losing team might try to re-assert itself on the national stage in the next appearance. However, I think this game being on the road for the Rams combined with the fact St. Louis is coming off it's biggest win of the years last week (a win versus SFO for the division lead) plays into either a let-down here, or a close game that will be decided by less than a touchdown.
-- Rams are always dangerous offensively, but this unit lacks consistency. QB Warner in particular has not put together a streak of good games, although he's coming off good efforts versus ATL and SFO. This is the Rams third consecutive divisional game -- and being on the road in a city that should be pumped emotionally only adds to the questions.
-- Key for Saints to win/cover here will be RB Williams. He MUST get into the clear and pick up 100+ yards and carry the ball 25 times. Long sustained drives that were used so effectively by the Bucs a few weeks ago will be the blueprint for the Saints (assuming New Orleans coaching staff has any common sense -- which is open to question)
-- Aaron Brooks is always a concern. His play has been erratic at times. Last time Saints were in this spot (a Sunday night game versus NYJ) Brooks played one of the worst games of any QB this season. Since that game, Brooks has plyed well, however and may be maturing in the role as team leader.
-- One concern is the fact the Rams completely DOMINATED Saints in the first half of the meeting in St. Louis. Think of it this way -- THE RAMS COMMITED EIGHT TURNOVERS AND STILL ALMOST WON THE GAME! I doubt the Rams will have the same collpase tonight, nor do I expect the Rams to be able to go into New Orleans and dominate like they did previously. Another concern is that Saints have not looked impressive at home this season -- losing to Atlanta and barely getting by Carolina in recent weeks. I'm counting on the notion that the Saints tend to play to their level of competition -- and thus will play well against the NFC's best team here.
-- I have no thoughts about the total. "51" is actually a key number for above-average NFL totals. A suprizingly high percentage of high-scoring games fall right on 51 (multiple scoring combinatiopns produce several 51 scenarios).
I don't view this as an overly strong play, but I do believe there is enough value in the Saints getting +6 to make a wager.
Best wishes to everyone. I hope the webpage is updated soon. There are several comments relating to this season in the new report.
-- Nolan Dalla
