Thoughts on this 1st qtr prop for tonight

[CrazyHorse]

Haven't posted much here, usually just observe. I am trying to decide if I should make a play on the 1st quarter and would like some thoughts.

GB/JAX under 7.5 (-110) 1st qtr.

I have done well with these 1st qtr totals that are set at 7.5 because many games are 7-0 after the 1st qtr. If the total was set at 7.5 for the 1st qtr in all of the following games here would be your result:

Green Bay games would have went under 7.5 in the 1st qtr 7 out of their 10 games this year. (Avg points scored in the 1st qtr of their games= 7.0)

Jacksonville games have went under 7.5 9 out of 10 games. (Avg points in the 1st qtr of all their games= 4.6)

MNF games this year would have gone under 9 out of 11 times. (Avg points in the 1st qtr of all MNF games this year= 6.1)

Now I realize the under was not 7.5 in all the games. Sometimes it was 7 even and sometimes it was 10.5, like last week. There were not MORE than 7 points scored in the 1st qtr in MNF this year until week8 (OAK v DEN combined to score 10pts). The only reason I factored in all the MNF games was to see if maybe there were more points scored early on MNF as opposed to day games on sunday.

Maybe I am trying to find value where it doesn't exist but I like this game to go under 7.5 tonite for the 1st qtr. Does anyone believe either team will try to score quickly as opposed to run/pass mix? Based on Jax's last 6 games I am not as worried about them messing up this total as they are not scoring many points and, despite an average defense, they are not giving up alot of points. Unless either team has a specific goal to come out firing and not just go with the usual run/pass mix, I feel it is worth a shot. Thoughts, comments?



[This message has been edited by CrazyHorse (edited 12-03-2001).]

 

[shmuly]

not first quarter bettoer or follower in general ...though i like the idea..
green bay will try to get the first score ...and be able to comfortably run and pass the rest of the way .
jax will be on the pass most of the game either way ...if gb does get their first score ...this game can turn into a shootout if brunell can answer
i would be a bit wary although you have every stat that says otherwise ..so it may just prove very profitable ...good luck in whatever you do
i think if i had to take something id go under though

 

[Scarecrow]

The probability based on your stats looks good...Bowman has under 7.5 -1.05.

 

[CrazyHorse]

Yes I think my main worries are:

Brett Favre and Mark Brunell

Jacksonville does not have a very good defense.

Kevin Hardy and LeRoy Butler are both injured.

Weather looks pretty good and it is MNF.

As long as it is 7.5, there still needs to be a TD and one other score. Still trying to decide but leaning towards making it a small play.

 

[yyz]

I like the work you have done. These bets are coin flips most of the time, and tonight seems no different.

On your side, you have the fact that there needs to be two scores for you to lose, three if the first two are fgs.

Also, the Pack is not setting the world on fire with their first drives this season! I can't tell you to make the bet, because I really don't have a feel for how the game will start, but I won't try to talk you out of it, either.

Just using the approach you have taken, you should be comfortable in your choice.

Good luck!

------------------
"You can't polish a turd."

 

[Skinar]

Excellent analysis Crazyhorse. I was looking at some stats just before I opened your thread and was thinking of playing the first half under because of the tendencies of GB and JAX. Both these teams have been 3rd quarter teams WHEN they have scored a lot. On the other hand, both these defenses have done a pretty good job of stopping the other team in the third quarter as well, perhpas because their offense was on the field most of the time.

I like your thinking on this one though. As usual I would say it boils down to turnovers and who can predict those. It DOES sound to me, however, that this prop has value.

** I just went and checked Pinnacle and they haven't posted any lines for the first two quarters, just the half. That's pretty unusual for them to dodge a play.

[This message has been edited by Skinar (edited 12-03-2001).]

 

[CrazyHorse]

Thanks for all the replies on this. I agree when you place a bet for one quarter anything can kill it. Special teams, defensive TD etc. I am starting to worry a little on this one. I still think it has good value based on the #'s. Think I will play it but for half the usual bet, so:

Under 7.5 1st qtr (-110) half unit

Good luck to all tonite!

 

[ec2285]

Thanks Crazyhorse would have never looked at this otherwise. Now its money in the bank!!!

 

[shmuly]

wanted to be the first to congratulate and say i was wrong ..but second'l do
good call ..
looking forward to hearing more from you in the future

 

[CrazyHorse]

Thanks again. I really like these 1st qtr totals since most are at 7 or 7.5. If it is the Rams or two decent offenses you will see 10 or 10.5. The majority of the time it is 7 or 7.5 so if you can selectively(sp?) play a few each sunday I think it can be profitable.