Thoughts On... "To Win Division" Props

[thadchr]

We're exiting the All-Star break and now seems like an excellent time to take a look at some of the "Team to win Division" prop bets. Most teams have between (it seems... my math is a tad rough) about 23-28 games remaining, and while some of the divisional races are more or less already locked up, some others are pretty hotly contested and offer some fairly juicy odds...

The one I'm looking at in particular is Milwaukee to win the Central at +415. They are currently 2.5 games behind the Cavs (2 in the win column and 3 in the loss column) and 1/2 game behind the Pacers for the division. Frankly, I'm disregarding the Pacers (right or wrong) as I just don't think they have the guns to hang down the stretch, which thus (IMO at least) makes it a two-team race... Stats to consider:

• Cleveland currently sits in the 3 spot (behind Toronto and Boston), while Milwaukee sits in the 6
• Vegas has the Cavs at 50.5 season wins (-125) and the Bucks at 46.5 (-110) ... (so 4 games apart)
• Both teams have nearly identical PPG and PPG allowed (110.2/110 & 104.6, respectively)
• Cleveland's lead comes primarily from their home wins margin (20-7) as both teams are within 2 games of .500 on the road
• Cleveland has a monstrous Conference win margin over Milwaukee (25-12 vs. 19-17, respectively)
• Cleveland has a 14/12 home/road split going forward, while Milwaukee's is 12/13
• Of the aforementioned splits, Milwaukee's schedule is relatively "evenly" parsed (i.e. their longest "streak" by a decent margin is a 4-game road trip over 6 days) whereas Cleveland soon follows a 5-game home streak with an immediate 6-game road trip
• Cleveland closes the season with a home-and-home against the Knicks; Milwaukee finishes home vs Orlando and then at Philadelphia... all games that are potentially meaningless

So I've got a good list of facts there, but there are still some gaps in my knowledge and tidbits that I'd love to know... Beyond just glancing at the remaining schedules, does anyone know the statistical SOS for each team? (On paper Cleveland looks to have an easier road.) Moreover and just in general, does anyone have any personal insight? Did Cleveland's trade overhauls "fix" their team, chemistry issues, etc.? Are the Bucks poised to get hot down the stretch? Are there likely going to be any games that "don't matter" for competition's sake and thus players rested and whatnot? All in all,
Is 4:1 good enough to warrant a play on the Bucks to win the Central?

 

[thadchr]

Since I already started a thread about playoff futures/props... Celtics +400 to win the East (in the playoffs of course) looks pretty juicy too. If the Cavs don't pull it altogether, I think the Celts are the best team in the East getting odds as if they're the 2nd or 3rd. And even if the Cavs do, I think it should be an excellent matchup headlined by Lebron vs. Kyrie, good Celtic offense vs. bad Cavs D, and then there's the whole X-factor of Heyward coming back... To me, barring a truly amazing Cavs turnaround, that's still an almost 50/50 series (where the Celts likely have home court, not to mention they wouldn't have to play the Raps to get there). +400 is a lot of extra value if you're really of such a mindset. And to me, in a marquee series between two relatively evenly matched teams, give me the one with the better D, the better coach(!), and the more cohesive units more often than not. Granted, there's still always that whole "up against the best player in the world who's been there 7 straight times" thing, but alas, all things must come to an end. I just have a feeling, that not only do these young and hungry underdogs (Celts and Bucks) have a real shot here, but also that we're not going to see odds quite this good again once the season resumes unless the Cavs turn it on full boar right out of the gates. Thoughts??

 

[ClevelandSteamers]

"Good Celtics offense"...ummm, they're actually one of the worst in the entire NBA. The only way the Celtics win the East is if LeBron gets hurt, Toronto's DeRozen gets hurt, and Washington fore fits. Celtics are an incredible story, but they aren't built for the playoffs. They're going to struggle to get out of the first round.

 

[thadchr]

Well, that's certainly a strong opinion, and I guess what I'm seeking with this thread. I'm inclined to disagree with you that [the Celts] are not built for the playoffs (good chemistry, a team leader coming into his own, great coach...), but there is still something to be said for the "if Lebron is healthy he's making the finals" theory.