Thoughts on Tomorrow???

[Toledo Prophet]

Hey guys, for any late night owls who are, say, watching the Lakers-Celtics, just looking to get some chatter going on tomorrow's games. We have a six pack of games.

Cal - 4.5 AF 55.5 Early start for west coast teams....does this favor the Cadets who are probably used to doing hard work early in the morning.

USF -6 Oregon 52 Pac 10 has a nice record as an underdog in bowl games. Still its a Leaf playing, although Grothe can single handedly lose this game for the Bulls also

GT -6 Fresno 54.5 I generally like Fresno as a dog against BCS schools. But, they have some suspensions, anybody know what kind of impact it would have.

UK -9.5 FSU 57.5 Speaking of suspensions. Yikes! Line opened at -1. Wish I had the Cats on that. What do we make of this high total. FSU wasn't scoring a bunch of points anyway. If they cant keep up with the Cats, how does this go over. Or, do you see UK putting something like 40 on the 'Noles. :shrug:

Okie St -5 IU 69 Well, I, of course, love the Hoosiers. When your alma mater has not been to bowl game since you yourself was an undergrad, you need to put at least a small amount of coin on them. On principle alone. But, I think Okie will have trouble w/ IU's offense--and vice versa, byt the way. Boy thats a high total, though. James Hardy should blow up. 3 TD's for him. Any Okie State guys out there for a hat bet or something!?!?!

Clem -2.5 Aub 46.5 Ok, this one I like. Auburn. I think they win. I'm sure of it. So much so that I am worried if it looks too easy. What do you guys think.

Just for chatter and discussion. Any thoughts?

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I'm on the Lakers too TP. Good Lord, Boston is smoking them.

Anyway, I have been getting killed in the bowls so take my advice with a grain of salt, but one of the first bets I made this bowl season was Auburn ML. I really like them to win that game outright.

I also lean heavily to USF -6. The only thing that scares me is that the line never really moved. I thought there would be a lot of money on USF, but apparently not? One thing I know, Oregon doesn't have a great defense and they are awful on O without Dixon. I have to assume USF will put 8 or 9 in the box to contain Stewart. Brady Leaf is the alter-ego of Ryan Leaf. His brother, although he is an a-hole, was one of the best college QBs I've seen. Brady on the other hand is pretty awful.

GL with your plays!

 

[bjfinste]

Playing Air Force +4.5 with a nibble on the ML. Cal is in an absolute freefall. Dropped 6 of last 7, with the lone win coming 20-17 at home against WashState. AF is a more disciplined team, and should be able to find success running the ball.

I've liked USF from the day lines were posted. Have seen all of Oregon's games since Dixon went down, and I just can't see them moving the ball. Not a big play but definitely taking it.

I see that Okie State/Indy game being about 51-42, so I will be on that over. Hardy will go off. Also gonna play Auburn, simply b/c I've seen both teams play several times this year, and I think Auburn is the better team.

 

[Theboundbook]

Playing Air Force +4.5 with a nibble on the ML. Cal is in an absolute freefall. Dropped 6 of last 7, with the lone win coming 20-17 at home against WashState. AF is a more disciplined team, and should be able to find success running the ball.

I've liked USF from the day lines were posted. Have seen all of Oregon's games since Dixon went down, and I just can't see them moving the ball. Not a big play but definitely taking it.

I see that Okie State/Indy game being about 51-42, so I will be on that over. Hardy will go off. Also gonna play Auburn, simply b/c I've seen both teams play several times this year, and I think Auburn is the better team.

:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :142smilie :142smilie

AF for sure. ML.

 

[ageecee]

Fresno plus for me


Auburn minus


The others dont have a clue, may play some totals..

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Interesting thoughts guys.

Here's something for everyone to chew on"

Last 10 years, Pac 10 teams are 16-5 ATS as a bowl underdog. That record includes UCLA's cover earlier this year. Nine outright wins as a dog in that span.

Oregon in that span, all under Belottie, is 4-1 ATS, 3-2 SU as a bowl dog, although they did get rolled by BYU last when catching a short +3.....didn't Leaf start that game, too?

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Fresno plus for me


Auburn minus


The others dont have a clue, may play some totals..

Fresno sis suspend some players here recently, need to look into that aspect a bit more, but as long it didn't strip them of their top talent, I like the Bulldogs too. Either way, its Fresno or nothing.

Pat Hill is 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU as a bowl dog. Seems like i've been playing, and winning, for years with this club as an underdog, except against Boise St. Last year was a big setback for the program, but his team has been focused this year to regain their footing. They wanted the bowl game and are stoked to be playing a team from a big boy conference.....he beated 2 ACC foes in bowl games in recent years, UVA in 2004, and Tech in 2002.

Fresno 17-6-1 ATS away from home as non conference dogs in the last 10 years.

 

[IE]

Fresno St. players suspended for Humanitarian Bowl

By MIKE KNOBLER
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 12/30/07

Boise, Idaho ? Fresno State has suspended eight reserves for Monday's Humanitarian Bowl game against Georgia Tech, the school announced Saturday night.

One of the eight, A.J. Jefferson, is the nation's leading kickoff returner, though an injury kept him out of the last two games of the regular season. Jefferson and backup tight end Isaac Kinter are the only two suspended players listed on Fresno State's two-deep depth chart.

They and five other players were suspended for missing curfew: Cameron Harris, Chris Piligian, Jamaal Rashad, Jason Roberts and Michael Stuart.

Sophomore linebacker Frank Padilla will miss the game for an unspecified violation of the school's athletics department policy.
__________________

 

[IE]

All-America kick returner A.J. Jefferson was one of eight Fresno State players who have been suspended for Monday's Humanitarian Bowl against Georgia Tech.

Jefferson, fullback Isaac Kinter, defensive lineman Michael Stuart, tight end Cameron Harris, offensive lineman Chris Piligian, running back Jamaal Rashad and Jason Roberts all were suspended for missing curfew Friday.

The curfew, which has changed nightly since Fresno State arrived Thursday, was set at midnight Friday.

Linebacker Frank Padilla also was suspended, cited for violating an unidentified department policy.

"Though it may seem to be a minimal violation when you're talking about missing curfew," Fresno State athletic director Thomas Boeh said, "when you're preparing for a bowl, it's a significant violation of team rules.

"We're very disappointed. Coaches are disappointed. Teammates are disappointed. Everyone associated in the program is disappointed."

Hill declined comment through sports information director Steve Weakland.

The suspended players were told to go home Saturday morning after coaches informed the team of the suspensions. Some left via plane later in the day, and others are waiting today to leave via bus.

Jefferson, the most prominent player who was suspended, said that he hoped the coaches would have a change of heart and allow him to play.

Jefferson, who leads the nation in kick return yardage, denies violating the team's curfew policy and said he was in his room during bed check.

"Somebody said they saw me out," Jefferson said. "But when they contacted me, I was here. Basically, it's just a big misunderstanding. They say they saw me at a club past curfew and that's not true."

Jefferson said he spent much of Saturday talking to assistant coaches and Hill about the curfew situation, and hopes to be reinstated.

Jefferson missed the final two regular-season games because of a sprained ankle but had been practicing for the bowl.

Earlier Saturday, Hill declared Jefferson out for the bowl but implied it was because of the injury.

"A.J. Jefferson isn't ready to play, which is really a shame," Hill said during the afternoon news conference. Fresno State then sent out a news release Saturday night that announced the suspensions.

Boeh said he believed all the suspensions would be upheld through the bowl.

Though not a starter, Kinter contributed as an H-back who would block or release for passes out of the backfield.

Stuart also received playing time occasionally, as a reserve pass rusher. Piligian and Harris, meanwhile, rarely if ever played, buried deep in the depth chart. Roberts, Rashad and Padilla already were out with injuries.

The suspensions for those who were said to violate curfew came as a surprise to the players, Jefferson said.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Interesting thoughts guys.

Here's something for everyone to chew on"

Last 10 years, Pac 10 teams are 16-5 ATS as a bowl underdog. That record includes UCLA's cover earlier this year. Nine outright wins as a dog in that span.

Oregon in that span, all under Belottie, is 4-1 ATS, 3-2 SU as a bowl dog, although they did get rolled by BYU last when catching a short +3.....didn't Leaf start that game, too?

Leaf started last year's Vegas Bowl but Dixon actually got more reps. Leaf and Dixon split a lot of time last season. Leaf was used as the pocket passer, Dixon as the mobile QB. I think they finally figured out that Dixon has a lot of talent; he's not just a scrambler. Leaf pretty much rode the pine this year because of that. If Oregon can't run the ball effectively tomorrow they're screwed. Leaf is not a good QB IMO.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thanks IE. We can always count on you to dig up the revealing clippings. I didn't even know what was going on until a few hours ago as I didn't see the news at all. Told a buddy I really liked Fresno, he just said something about suspensions and all I could think about was another florida state-type of deal.

Sounds like the players involved dont play much and the one who does, Jefferson, might convince the coaches to let him play. They just rolled KState without him, so they can probably overcome that if he does sit.

I'll be backing the man with the Fu Manchu tomorrow.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Leaf started last year's Vegas Bowl but Dixon actually got more reps. Leaf and Dixon split a lot of time last season. Leaf was used as the pocket passer, Dixon as the mobile QB. I think they finally figured out that Dixon has a lot of talent; he's not just a scrambler. Leaf pretty much rode the pine this year because of that. If they can't run the ball effectively they're screwed as far as I'm concerned. Leaf is not a good QB IMO.

That Arizone game was awful, and surreal with his brother on the sideline......the UCLA game after that might have been the worst performance by a QB and subsequently by the whole offense, that we've seen from any of these teams during the year which qualified for a bowl. Looked a lot better, albeit in fits and starts, in the Civil War, and we saw what the Oregon St D could do vs Maryland.

This game just stinks.....the Sun Bowl has seen its share of underdogs overachieve the "experts" predictions, but I just cant back Brady Leaf. That total of 52 sure does look high. Doubt Oregon will break 20. Doubt USF will get into the 30s also......hmmmmmm. :00x32

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

That Arizone game was awful, and surreal with his brother on the sideline......the UCLA game after that might have been the worst performance by a QB and subsequently by the whole offense, that we've seen from any of these teams during the year which qualified for a bowl. Looked a lot better, albeit in fits and starts, in the Civil War, and we saw what the Oregon St D could do vs Maryland.

This game just stinks.....the Sun Bowl has seen its share of underdogs overachieve the "experts" predictions, but I just cant back Brady Leaf. That total of 52 sure does look high. Doubt Oregon will break 20. Doubt USF will get into the 30s also......hmmmmmm. :00x32

Yeah, I haven't played a side on that game yet but it's USF or nothing for me. Having said that, it's to the point now where I expect crazy things to happen in the bowls. Hell, Oregon could jump out 21-0 and it wouldn't surprise me.

I'm terrible with totals so I really couldn't begin to guess on that. The under would look like the better play, but I don't know.

And you're right, that UCLA game was putrid. They also looked terrible against AZ after Dixon went out. The only time they looked halfway decent was at home against OSU, and I think that had a lot to do with the fact that it was a rivalry game being played at home.

This current Ducks team, without Dixon, would have been a 3-4 win team this year, IMO.

 

[Houseman]

I like AU, but so much so that it scares me. It's a 5 unit pick for me if I take it. I might play the under for 2. And parlay or tease a few for 1 unit.

Here is another thought. Bo dog has the AU at +3(-130 juice) and Clem -3 (+110). The books are wanting us to take Clem @-3, they are even giving you Juice!! They are not confident enough to drop the line by 1/2 because it will be below the magic 3pt.

So, not confident in lowering the line and giving out extra money if you take Clem.

AND they are the only line without a ML on Bodog for tomorrow. They are scared to post the money line becasue all the money is going on AU.

Can anyone else help me figure this one out?

 

[Corley1011]

I see USF winning that game 27-7 or around there...

 

[Corley1011]

Auburn wins this game.... Tommy T out coaches Tommy B

 

[Houseman]

Yeah, I haven't played a side on that game yet but it's USF or nothing for me. Having said that, it's to the point now where I expect crazy things to happen in the bowls. Hell, Oregon could jump out 21-0 and it wouldn't surprise me.

I'm terrible with totals so I really couldn't begin to guess on that. The under would look like the better play, but I don't know.

And you're right, that UCLA game was putrid. They also looked terrible against AZ after Dixon went out. The only time they looked halfway decent was at home against OSU, and I think that had a lot to do with the fact that it was a rivalry game being played at home.

This current Ducks team, without Dixon, would have been a 3-4 win team this year, IMO.

Did they have 6 wins before Dixon went down? Were they already bowl eligable?

 

[big papi]

the only thing that scares me about Oregon is Jonathan Stewart he is a beast and can not be stopped. USF should play man coverage and stack the line.

 

[IX_Bender]

AND they are the only line without a ML on Bodog for tomorrow. They are scared to post the money line becasue all the money is going on AU.

Can anyone else help me figure this one out?

This game has the most even split of the five bowls Dec 31st. It will also have the most action of any game on Monday most likely.

Some chickenshit books dont put out MLs on games with less than a 3pt spread. I prefer not to play at those joints.

 

[Corley1011]

USF has good fast D- Ends... they stopped WVU pretty well... i see them stopping this 1-D offense easily