Thread watched CNOTES 2023-2024 NBA TRENDS, NEWS, BEST BETS AND OPINIONS THRU THE PLAYOFFS !

Cnotes53

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2023-24 REGULAR SEASON BEGINS TOMORROW.

LA LAKERS
are 55-34 Over (17.6 Units) in road games in road games in the last 3 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.



NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 24


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NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 24


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NBA

Tuesday, October 24


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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Denver
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of LA Lakers's last 24 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
Denver is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

Phoenix @ Golden State
Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State
Golden State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix
 

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Ranking all 30 NBA offenses: Why the Nuggets, Bucks and Suns stand out from the pack​

The Kings had the most efficient offense in NBA history last season​

[IMG alt=" Sam Quinn
"]https://sportshub.cbsistatic.com/i/r/2019/08/03/ef7f01f6-54ea-472e-86b3-0f2cebdcdb8e/thumbnail/80x80/1ddfb380392cd6f2561cb492fe649a2b/sam-quinn-500.png[/IMG]

By Sam Quinn

Oct 19, 2023 at 8:00 am ET•29 min read

The Sacramento Kings had the most efficient offense in NBA history last season when they averaged 118.6 points per 100 possessions. De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are All-Stars, but I think most readers would agree that they are far from the most talented offensive duo the league has ever seen. So how did Sacramento not only lap the 2023 field, but the entirety of league history last season?

Well, some factors were somewhat inevitable. Offense has grown significantly more efficient league wide over the past several seasons. Sacramento broke a record that had previously been set by the 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets at 117.3 points per 100 possessions, who themselves broke a record that had been set by the 2019-20 Dallas Mavericks at 115.9 points per 100 possessions. Someone was going to break Brooklyn's record, but why the Kings, specifically? The Kings stood out in five areas:

  • The Kings ranked sixth in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game (37.3).
  • The Kings ranked seventh in the NBA in fast-break points per game (14.9).
  • The Kings ranked seventh in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (25.1).
  • The Kings ranked fourth in the NBA in passes per game (299.3) and third in potential assists (49.7).
  • The Kings were by far the healthiest team in the NBA last season. All five of their starters missed fewer than 10 games. They used the same starting lineup of Fox, Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes in 61 of their 82 games and that lineup played 900 total minutes. Only two other lineups even reached 600 last season.
So what is the message here? Notice that these numbers emphasize process over results. The Kings were a pretty good shooting team from both the line and from deep... but they were great at just getting those shots in the first place. They forced the issue in transition when they could for easy baskets and they moved the ball to create better looks. The Kings may not have been the best team in the league in any of those areas, but they were among the best in all of them and they almost always had all of their best players at their disposal. That, more than anything, led to their offensive success.

And it's the biggest measure we'll use to rank this season's 30 offenses before opening night. These rankings are not solely based on sheer talent. They will account for depth, durability, shot profiles and coaching track records. We are attempting to predict where all 30 teams will ultimately rank when the dust settles in April, not how they look on paper today. With that in mind, let's begin:

1. Denver Nuggets

What they'll do well: They have the best offensive player in the world (Nikola Jokic). That player has never played fewer than 69 games in a season (and only fell below 70 last year because of how quickly Denver clinched home-court advantage). They're bringing back all five starters, giving them a significant continuity advantage on almost every other elite offense. They were the only team in the NBA last season to finish in the top-five in 3-point percentage (fourth), points in the paint (fourth) and fast-break points (fifth). Rookie Julian Strawther is shooting a blistering 45.2% on nearly eight 3-point attempts per game in the preseason, giving this bench the sharpshooter it has largely lacked.

Where they'll struggle: Depth was an issue even with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green on the roster. Both are gone now. Brown was the de-facto backup point guard last season, and if Denver had much faith in Reggie Jackson to replace him, they likely would've given him real playoff minutes. The offense has declined by an average of 16.7 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench over the past three seasons, and they haven't solved the backup center problem. Jamal Murray is in just his second season back from a torn ACL, while Michael Porter Jr. remains a significant injury risk.

2. Milwaukee Bucks

What they'll do well: The Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo pick-and-roll is going to be unguardable. Build a wall for Antetokounmpo and Lillard will take a dozen pull-up 3's every night. Blitz Lillard and Antetokounmpo has a numbers advantage for the first time in his career. The decision to start Malik Beasley indicates that this team is prioritizing points above all else. The shooting depth is incredible as almost every member of the rotation is at least decent from deep. Most are a good deal better. Brook Lopez can still get you some post-up points, and Khris Middleton is overqualified as a third option.


Where they'll struggle: Everyone is old. Lillard is 33. Lopez is 35. Middleton is 32 and played only 33 games last season (and not especially well by his standards). Mike Budenholzer was one of the best regular-season offensive coaches in basketball. How much of his system will Adrian Griffin replicate? Is Cameron Payne a viable backup point guard when he isn't sharing minutes with Devin Booker or Chris Paul? Phoenix lineups featuring Payne and neither of his more famous backcourt-mates ranked in just the 20th percentile in offense last season, according to Cleaning the Glass.

3. Phoenix Suns

What they'll do well: Death by 1,000,000 mid-range jumpers. Last year's Nets (led partially by Kevin Durant!) hold the 21st century record for mid-range field goal percentage as a team at 48.9%, and the 2021 Suns (led by Devin Booker!) are in second place at 47.4%. Now Durant and Booker have a whole season together, and Bradley Beal is along for the ride. The bench has plenty of flaws, but between Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon and Damion Lee, there is plenty of shooting. Jusuf Nurkic is among the most annoying screeners in basketball for opposing defenders and injects sorely needed high-post playmaking. It's a tiny sample, but no team generated more fast break points per game in last year's playoffs than the Suns with Durant and Booker (18.3).

Where they'll struggle: The Suns ranked last in restricted area shots last season. Durant barely played for them, but his Nets ranked 26th and Beal's Wizards ranked 23rd. Is this team going to get to the rim consistently? A lot of minutes are going to be allocated to designated defenders like Josh Okogie and Keita Bates-Diop. How will that impact spacing for the stars? How often will the stars even be on the floor? Durant has played in 58% of his team's games over the past three seasons and Beal is at around 64%. Nurkic is at 49% over the last four seasons.


4. Boston Celtics

What they'll do well: No coach emphasizes 3-pointers to the degree that Joe Mazzulla does. Boston jumped from ninth to second in attempts per game last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown had down shooting years, but the rest of their core six all shot at least 38% last season, and key reserves Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard should be in that range as well. Assuming they stagger their best players properly, they'll always have at least two All-Star-caliber players on the floor.

Where they'll struggle: Boston never gets to the line. The Celtics ranked 28th in free throw attempts last season. They rarely get to the rim either, ranking 23rd in paint points a season ago. Their offseason changes will help on both fronts, but these are still relative weaknesses for the Celtics. When their shots go in, they'll be unbeatable. When they don't? Well, let's see what else this team has up its sleeve.

5. Sacramento Kings​

What they'll do well: Everything they did well last year, which, as we covered above, is basically everything. There's no reason to believe Sacramento will suffer major injury issues this season. They remain pretty good at just about every element of offense. They've improved their shooting slightly by adding Chris Duarte and EuroLeague MVP Sasha Vezenkov. Their roster is still relatively young with room for internal growth. Fox's speed and Sabonis' incredible screening are still a lethal combination.


Where they'll struggle: They probably aren't going to be 10 points per 100 possessions better in clutch situation than the rest of the league this season because clutch performance tends to be somewhat random if your point guard isn't Chris Paul. Even if they don't suffer major injuries, they'll likely have a few more dings and bruises. They won't sneak up on anyone this year.

6. Dallas Mavericks​

What they'll do well: Do you like dribbling? Then, boy, do I have the offense for you. Luka Doncic led the NBA in isolation field goal attempts per game (5.5) and Kyrie Irving ranked sixth (4.1). Fortunately, they're both quite good at individual shot-creation. as each topped 1.1 points per possession in isolation last season and nearly did so in pick-and-roll as well. Lineups featuring the pair of them rated in the 94th percentile in terms of offensive efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass. Dallas ranked third in the NBA in 3-point attempts last season, and after adding Seth Curry and Grant Williams they may even be better from deep this year. They didn't sacrifice from the line to get all of those 3's either, as they ranked fifth in the NBA in free-throw attempts.

Where they'll struggle: Are they really going to start a rookie center in Dereck Lively? Jason Kidd yanked Christian Wood's minutes around last season because he didn't trust him on defense. Will he do that to anyone this season? Dončić has played 70 games only once in his career. Irving's durability concerns speak for themselves, so does the drama that tends to follow him everywhere he goes. Is there any shot-creation beyond the top two? That largely depends on Curry's health after ankle issues ruined his previous season and whether or not Kidd is willing to give Jaden Hardy room to grow on the floor.


7. Golden State Warriors

What they'll do well: The only team that attempted more 3's than Boston last season was Golden State, and only the 76ers made a higher percentage of their 3's than the Warriors. Bench offense has been a weakness throughout the Stephen Curry era, with the Warriors scoring an average of 13.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the bench during his eight healthy seasons under Steve Kerr. Chris Paul is an ideal solution to this problem. He'll be able to run a competent regular season pick-and-roll as long his body remains upright. Preseason Jonathan Kuminga has been incredible. The wasted James Wiseman minutes are gone, the infuriating Jordan Poole turnovers are gone and Golden State leads the NBA in passes almost every year.

Where they'll struggle: They're older the Bucks and as injury-prone as the Suns. Draymond Green already has a sprained ankle. Their shot-selection issues are perhaps even more pressing than Phoenix's, as last season's roster, which is fairly similar to this season's, ranked last in free throw attempts and 28th in restricted area shot attempts. Someone out of Curry, Green, Paul, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney is coming off of the bench. How will that affect team chemistry? Can Paul, who holds the ball longer than almost anyone in the NBA, conform to a style that relies on frequent movement and passing? Meanwhile, Thompson, Kuminga and Moses Moody are all playing for contracts.

8. Atlanta Hawks

What they'll do well: Trae Young's last three offenses have ranked seventh, second and ninth. Quin Snyder's last three full seasons of offense have ranked first, fourth and ninth, respectively. Pair arguably the NBA's best regular-season pick-and-roll operator with arguably the NBA's best regular-season pick-and-roll offense designer and you're going to get a pretty good offense. Dejounte Murray is a solid secondary creator in that context, but his mid-range game will be an even more valuable change of pace on a roster that will finally have the green light to fire all of the 3's Nate McMillan didn't let them take.


Where they'll struggle: Atlanta's shot-selection will likely improve significantly under Snyder, but this is still a team that relies heavily on Young's floater and Murray's overall mid-range game. The Hawks don't have Phoenix's talent or shooting depth. They're going to have to find ways to get to the rim and get to the line. Clint Capela spent the offseason in trade rumors. If he does eventually get dealt to make way for Onyeka Okongwu, the Hawks will badly miss his offensive rebounding. Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged only a bit more than 50 games per season as a Hawk and is almost always banged up with something.

9. Indiana Pacers

What they'll do well: The Pacers were the NBA's best transition offense last season, and the addition of Obi Toppin should make them even better. The former Knick averaged over 20 points per game as a starter in New York, but only started 15 games in three years. No big man in the NBA runs the floor better than he does, and Tyrese Haliburton is going to give him several clean lobs per game. Indiana ranked seventh in the NBA in both 3-point and restricted area attempts last season, and Rick Carlisle teams always emphasize high-efficiency shots. Benedict Mathurin hit the rookie wall last season, but if he takes a step, his aggressive driving game meshes perfectly with Haliburton's finesse.

Where they'll struggle: There isn't a traditional late-clock shot-creator here, so when their gorgeous transition game is forced to slow down, they're going to encounter some problems. The Pacers ranked just 24th in half-court points per play last season, and even with some improvement, that likely isn't a strength. Buddy Hield is due an extension and was in trade rumors earlier this offseason when a deal wasn't struck. His shooting is very valuable here.

10. New York Knicks
What they'll do well: New York is, ironically, Indiana's opposite. The Knicks were one of the NBA's slowest teams last year, but made up for it by generating the second-most points per possession in the half-court. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are incredibly reliable regular-season shot-creators, and are annoying to game-plan against because of how rare their playing styles are. Brunson's craft distinguishes him from the speed and shooting range of most high-end pick-and-roll point guards, and Randle's strength and touch make him more versatile than most bigs. The Knicks replaced Toppin with Donte DiVincenzo, adding badly needed shooting and practically forcing Tom Thibodeau to play more small lineups. The Knicks run one of the NBA's tightest rotations, rarely allocating any minutes to players outside of the core rotation. That's not ideal for player-development, but great for maintaining consistent performance.

Where they'll struggle: The roster practically demands small-ball, at least out of bench units. Will Thibodeau oblige? He rarely has. The Knicks improved their shot-selection significantly last season, but were still somewhat mediocre when it came to scoring near the rim. That's the sort of spacing problem teams that start multiple big men face, and, quietly, Josh Hart doesn't get guarded much from deep either. There's not nearly enough ball-movement here, as New York ranked 22nd in passes per game. DiVincenzo will help a bit on this front, but too much of this offense simply boils down to two players in Randle and Brunson creating their own looks.
 

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11. Philadelphia 76ers​

What they'll do well: Throwing the ball to Joel Embiid at the high post is among the easiest ways to generate two points in all of basketball. More so, Tyrese Maxey is ready for a breakout. He averaged 24.8 points and 5.4 assists in games James Harden missed last season. No team made a higher percentage of its 3-pointers last season. Though the depth is flawed, no coach relies more on his starters than Nick Nurse.


Where they'll struggle: We have no idea what, if anything, to expect out of Harden. Losing the NBA's assists leader, either through a trade or indifference, would be a significant blow. Nurse's half-court offenses have largely been bad in Toronto, and while personnel played a big part, his schematic brilliance has largely come on defense. The starting lineup basically plays 4-on-5 offensively because of P.J. Tucker. Is that possible without a Harden-level shot-creator involved?

12. Minnesota Timberwolves

What they'll do well: The first season Gobert spent with Mike Conley saw the Jazz rank ninth on offense. The second and third saw jumps to fourth and first. Their chemistry is a massive improvement on D'Angelo Russell. Anthony Edwards was the breakout star for Team USA over the summer. Karl-Anthony Towns is probably going to play more than 29 games this season, and if Minnesota can convince him to spend more time spacing the floor in the starting units, it will make life significantly easier for Edwards, whom the team should be built around. Kyle Anderson and Naz Reid bring unique traits most teams would kill to have on their bench. Chris Finch is among the NBA's most creative offensive coaches.

Where they'll struggle: Towns-Gobert lineups were disastrous offensively last season. This ranking relies on improvement and, frankly, sacrifice that may not come. Conley is 36, so significant age-related decline is a major concern. Taurean Prince's shooting on the wing is a meaningful loss. This team has serious tax concerns, so if it starts out badly, there's some potential for a bad trade that saves money.


13. Los Angeles Lakers

What they'll do well: LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still a very strong starting point for an offense. The Lakers ranked fourth in the NBA in restricted area shot attempts largely because of them. The offseason improvements were largely based on juicing the offense. Gabe Vincent is a more reliable floor-spacer than Dennis Schroder was, and nobody guards Jarred Vanderbilt, so Taurean Prince minutes will alleviate some of the spacing concerns there. Christian Wood is the best scoring big man Davis has played with in Los Angeles, and James should enjoy a strong pick-and-roll partnership with him. Austin Reaves averaged just shy of 20 points per game in the last month of the regular season and was just as good in the playoffs. He's the best secondary ball-handler James has had in Los Angeles.

Where they'll struggle: James turns 39 this season. His raw stats don't show it yet, but he's starting to show the faintest signs of decline. His isolation and pick-and-roll numbers are down, replaced by spot-up attempts and transition freebies he's seeking out more aggressively than he once did. Both he and Davis have durability concerns. The shooting has improved but it's far from a strength. Is Rui Hachimura's playoff shooting sustainable? Probably not. The fact that he shot below 30% from 3 in the regular season as a Laker has largely been ignored.

14. Cleveland Cavaliers

What they'll do well: The Cavaliers will always have an All-Star level shot-creator on the floor between Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, and lineups featuring both of them ranked in the 89th percentile in offensive efficiency last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. They made a concerted effort to improve their shooting this offseason by acquiring Max Strus and Georges Niang. Those additions were needed to make their two-big lineups offensively viable. Speaking of those bigs, Evan Mobley took some small steps last season. He averaged just under 19 points per game in February and March before disappearing in the postseason. He'll need to keep improving, and third-year top-three picks generally do.

Where they'll struggle: Cleveland was the NBA's slowest team last season despite having a relatively athletic roster. Mobley has still taken less than 200 3-pointers in his career. Cleveland's two-big lineup surviving offensively revolves around the idea that Mobley will at least grow into a pseudo-threat from deep. That hasn't happened yet, and the Cavs haven't exactly reaped the benefits of their size either, as they are average offensively near the basket and below-average as an offensive rebounding team. We can't ignore the Mitchell rumors either. If this team doesn't start well, those are going to get louder.

15. Oklahoma City Thunder

What they'll do well: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can beat anyone off the dribble and get to the rim. Only two players scored more points in the paint per game than he did last season: Zion Williamson and Giannis Antetokounmpo. As a result, no team took more shots in the restricted area than Oklahoma City. The Thunder were the NBA's third-fastest team last season, and its youth and collective basketball IQ made them a nightmare to defend in the open floor.

Where they'll struggle: This offense dies whenever Gilgeous-Alexander sits, ranking in the 20th percentile in offensive efficiency, according to Cleaning the Glass. Shooting is a weakness as well unless Chet Holmgren outperforms expectations, and the Thunder are not only conservative when it comes to minutes and injury-management, but have so many young players that they need to actively try to develop that they wind up devoting more minutes to bad players than most teams trying to win.
 

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16. Memphis Grizzlies

What they'll do well: The Grizzlies have been among the best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA for years now. Any team with a healthy Steven Adams would be, and having a big man next to him in Jaren Jackson Jr. that spaces the floor is an ideal combination. They're a menace in transition when Ja Morant is on the floor, and that's part of why they led the NBA in points in the paint last season. Luke Kennard made roughly 900% of his 3-pointers once he arrived in Memphis. Like Maxey with Harden, Desmond Bane stepped up big time when Morant was out last season and is ready for a featured role early this season.

Where they'll struggle: Morant missing (at least) 25 games is pretty significant. Even when Morant is healthy, this has never been a particularly effective half-court offense, and Adams is recovering from an injury of his own. That puts a dent in their offensive rebounding. The Grizzlies are banking on Marcus Smart to replace both Dillon Brooks (as their best perimeter defender) and Tyus Jones (as their backup point guard). He should do just fine in the Brooks role, but he isn't nearly as steady offensively as Jones, and that will matter early in the season. Brandon Clarke, recovering from an Achilles tear, will be badly missed off the bench as well.

17. Los Angeles Clippers

What they'll do well: They're not quite as dominant as they once were, but the Clippers are still among the NBA's best shooting teams. They ranked third in 3-point percentage last season and eighth on mid-range shots. After years of struggling to get to the foul line, they rose up to 11th last season and figure to hover around league-average this season. Kawhi Leonard's mid-range jumper remains one of the most lethal late-game weapons in the league. Maybe James Harden will arrive at some point or maybe he won't.

Where they'll struggle: They never get to the basket. They hardly ever run, though the presence of Russell Westbrook helps a bit in that regard. Still, Westbrook throws a wrench in the shooting-heavy approach that has largely produced their best basketball since landing Leonard and Paul George. Despite his gaudy playoff stats, Clippers lineups featuring Westbrook and the stars only outscored opponents by 1.8 points per 100 possessions last season. It's a pretty uninspiring number, yet his reputation practically forces the Clippers to start him.

18. New Orleans Pelicans

What they'll do well: Williamson is the NBA's most dangerous interior scorer. Prior to his Dec. 19 injury, they ranked third in points in the paint with him around. Afterward, they fell to 14th. With him on the floor, they're almost impossible to guard near the rim. Perhaps not coincidentally, they fell from ninth to 17th in 3-point shooting after his injury because the gravity he generates was gone. This is relatively simple: Williamson warps the court in ways that make the Pelicans a good offense. Right now, he's playing. If he plays all year, the Pelicans have enough supplementary shot-creation with Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum to be a very good offense.

Where they'll struggle: Williamson never stays healthy for long. He's played 114 games in four years. When he goes down, this offense no longer makes sense. Shooting is a major issue with Trey Murphy already dealing with a torn meniscus. He was their only high-volume shooter as last year's team ranked 29th in 3-point attempts. Larry Nance Jr. is dealing with an ankle injury as well, and backup center becomes a problem if he can't play. McCollum's raw numbers look fairly strong, but he just averaged his fewest points on his lowest field goal percentage since 2016. Ingram's disastrous Team USA stint has more to do with what works on the FIBA stage, but it's not exactly an encouraging sign entering the season.

19. Charlotte Hornets

What they'll do well: When LaMelo Ball was healthy in 2022, the Hornets ranked second in the NBA in fast break points, third in points in the paint and sixth in 3-point attempts. Those three things alone will get an offense fairly far. Mark Williams should be the best lob-catcher Ball has ever played with. However you feel about the return of Miles Bridges, his presence should at least move Gordon Hayward to the bench, which would potentially keep him a bit healthier.

Where they'll struggle: Ball is incredible in transition and can shoot from Jupiter, but he hasn't grown nearly enough as a half-court shot-creator. Hayward's health is significant here, as he is the only reliable creator the Hornets have inside of the arc. We have no idea how Bridges will look after a year away from the team, and Brandon Miller will be given as many shots and minutes as he needs to grow regardless of his impact on winning.

20. Utah Jazz​

What they'll do well: They largely take the right shots. Utah ranked fifth in the NBA in 3-point attempts and 29th in mid-range tries. Lauri Markkanen has always been able to shoot, but his growth as a ball-handler and athlete since arriving in the NBA is what has turned him into an All-Star. John Collins will likely help their uninspiring paint performance. Coach Will Hardy ran some of the NBA's best out-of-bounds plays last season.

Where they'll struggle: Did Collins shoot 29% from 3-point range last season because of an injured finger? Or should we expect sustained decline? Utah's offense relies on Collins making jumpers, especially given the uncertainty in the backcourt. Keyonte George has shined in the preseason, but rookie guards are almost never genuine positives as floor generals. Talen Horton-Tucker can't shoot and neither can Kris Dunn. Spacing isn't going to come as easily this season, especially if Kelly Olynyk is traded, and Mike Conley's veteran know-how went a long way towards pushing Utah into competitiveness last season.

21. Miami Heat

What they'll do well: Almost everyone on the roster shot below their typical percentages from deep last season, and a regression to the mean is part of what powered their run to the NBA Finals. They won't lead the NBA in 3-point percentage as they did during the 2021-22 season without Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, but they won't rank 27th as they did a year ago either. The Heat run one of the NBA's more egalitarian offenses, ranking seventh in the league in passes last season. Almost everybody in the rotation can actually handle the ball, and Bam Adebayo has quietly grown into one of the league's best passing centers.

Where they'll struggle: Without Strus and Vincent they're probably going to be closer to 27th in 3-point shooting than 1st. This team is pathologically averse to running, a trait that serves it well in the postseason and quite badly in the regular season. Jimmy Butler just turned 34 and hasn't played 70 games since 2017. There may be lingering bad blood after half of the roster spent the summer in trade rumors for Damian Lillard.

22. Brooklyn Nets​

What they'll do well: Ben Simmons can create transition offense out of nothing. The 2021 76ers finished third in fast-break points with only Simmons and Maxey running. Brooklyn's defense is going to be so good and generate so many turnovers that transition opportunities will be plentiful. Mikal Bridges was an All-Star-caliber shot-maker once he arrived in Brooklyn, averaging over 26 points per game as a Net. That stellar Brooklyn defense gives the Nets leeway to play Cam Thomas real minutes. Thomas has no other above-average NBA skill, but he can put the ball through the rim.

Where they'll struggle: Relying on a healthy Simmons seems... unwise. Cam Johnson's durability issues aren't quite as bad, but he's far from reliable as well. There are a ton of shaky shooters here, and lineups with Simmons and Nic Claxton are going to feel very claustrophobic. Spencer Dinwiddie and Thomas make more sense on a team with a single, reliable shot-creator. On this roster, they're both going to need to generate far more than the Nets should be comfortable with.

23. Orlando Magic

What they'll do well: Generate mismatches. There is no single area in which the Magic excelled last season aside perhaps from getting to the foul line. What made their offense viable was how big and skilled everybody was. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are too big for guards and too fast and crafty for most forwards. Wendell Carter Jr. was among the best shooters on the team at center. Mo Wagner can be, too, though he had a down year from deep. Markelle Fultz still can't shoot, but he can do basically everything else we hoped he would when he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2017.

Where they'll struggle: Joe Ingles and Gary Harris are the only reliable shooters on this roster and they're barely going to play. The backcourt is a mess with five recent first-round picks (Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Anthony Black and Jett Howard) all fighting for a long-term role. They're not nearly as good in transition as a team this young needs to be to survive on offense.

24. Houston Rockets

What they'll do well: There's going to be a baseline of competence, finally, after replacing the NBA's worst lead ball-handler (Kevin Porter Jr.) and head coach (Stephen Silas) with proven professionals in Fred VanVleet and Ime Udoka. The days of no organization are gone. Udoka is perfectly willing to bench players for freelancing. It remains to be seen how much of the offense will run through Alperen Sengun, but he has the potential to become the best shot-creating big man in the NBA not named Jokić. Jalen Green's nuclear athleticism means a lot more on a roster with some veterans who can help him take advantage of it.

Where they'll struggle: Where is the shooting coming from on this roster aside from VanVleet? The only returning Rocket to shoot above 34% on 3's last season was Tari Eason on roughly two attempts per game. Green has to improve from deep if this offense is going to be viable. The same is true of Jabari Smith Jr., though his improvement over the course of last season was encouraging. Dillon Brooks is going to shoot them out of games like he did the Grizzlies. Amen Thompson developmental minutes will pay dividends down the line but should be rough this season.

25. Chicago Bulls

What they'll do well: Make mid-range shots. Chicago attempted 2.1 more of them per game last season than any other team and ranked fifth in the NBA by making 44.5% of them. The Alex Caruso-Jevon Carter guard tandem is going to generate a bunch of turnovers that will hopefully breathe some life into a transition offense that was otherwise uninspiring without Lonzo Ball.

Where they'll struggle: Everywhere else. They took the fewest 3-pointers in the NBA by far last season. Additionally, they have major concerns with both age and health at several positions. They also don't get to the rim very often. If they're smart they'll blow this roster up in February, and, if they do, the last two horrible months of the season will only push them further down the list.
 

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26. Washington Wizards​

What they'll do well: Jordan Poole can take all of the shots his heart desires. Tyus Jones is a professional point guard auditioning for his next contract from a contender. Kyle Kuzma is great in space. They're not gonna really start tanking until the trade deadline.

Where they'll struggle: This clip from Thursday's preseason game against the Knicks should paint a pretty clear picture of what this season is going to look like for everyone not named Jordan Poole.

27. Portland Trail Blazers

What they'll do well: Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are above-average individual shot-creators for their position, and Scoot Henderson is going to be one of the most athletic guards in the NBA from the moment he debuts. There is a surprising amount of competence spread throughout this roster. Malcolm Brogdon just won Sixth Man of the Year and Deandre Ayton can finally post up from time to time. There are too many good players on this roster for Portland to finish dead last.

Where they'll struggle: Rookie point guards put up fun stats and usually lead very bad offenses. There's also a reason Phoenix didn't want to give Ayton the ball as much as he wanted. Brogdon will be gone by February, and if someone is willing to take on his contract, Grant will be too.

28. Toronto Raptors

What they'll do well: Run. Toronto's defense tends to generate a ton of turnovers, and the Raptors are so athletic that they make good use of those transition opportunities to generate free buckets. They ranked third in offensive rebounding last season, and Jakob Poeltl's presence on the roster all season should only help on that front.

Where they'll struggle: Half-court offense. All of it, the whole thing. The Raptors ranked 25th in half-court points per play and just swapped out their best shooter, VanVleet, for a below-average one in Schröder. OG Anunoby is the best shooter in this starting lineup at 37.5% from deep for his career. If Schröder starts over Gary Trent Jr., nobody else in the starting lineup will be at even 34%.

29. San Antonio Spurs

What they'll do well: If Jeremy Sochan does wind up starting at point guard, all five San Antonio starters will be at least 6-foot-5. That's going to create some fun potential for mismatches, and this roster is athletic enough to do well in transition. Victor Wembanyama will lead the league in highlights.

Where they'll struggle: Jeremy Sochan is a 6-8 forward that averaged 9.2 points and 1.8 assists per game in his lone college season and had the seventh-highest usage rate on his own team last season. The idea of starting him at point guard is to develop his promising ball-handling and playmaking skills. In the short term, it would be disastrous. That's the tagline for this entire Spurs season. They didn't add any meaningful veterans despite having max cap space over the summer. This is a "let's see what we have" season in San Antonio. They don't care about winning yet.

30. Detroit Pistons

What they'll do well: Cade Cunningham excelled as a member of Team USA's Select Team over the summer. As a former No. 1 overall pick in his third season, it wouldn't be crazy to see him contend for an All-Star slot under normal circumstances.

Where they'll struggle: These are not normal circumstances. Why are there so many centers here? Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Killian Hayes are all poor shooters at this stage of their careers. The Pistons are going to have to balance their need to develop them with the shooters they actually have on the roster in Joe Harris, Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. It's hard to trust a team to adequately do so when that team just can't stop adding centers. Monty Williams teams tend to have terrible shot-selection, as Phoenix has illustrated with its mid-range fixation. This roster needs significant changes before it can score acceptably.
 

Cnotes53

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting spreads for this week’s NFL:
— Buccaneers @ Buffalo (-8)
— Saints @ Indianapolis (-1)
— Jaguars (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh
— Texans (-3) @ Carolina
— Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington
— Patriots @ Miami (-10.5)

Quote of the Day
“In anger, we should refrain both from speech and action.”
Pythagoras

Tuesday’s quiz
What is the only NFC team that has never played in a Super Bowl?

Monday’s quiz
Hall of Famer Dick Vermeil coached the Philadelphia Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Sunday’s quiz
The first Super Bowl was played in the Los Angeles Coliseum; Packers 35, Chiefs 10.

*****************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

— Giannis Antetokounmpo signed a 3-year, $186M contract with the Milwaukee Bucks, meaning he will earn $62M a year, which works out to $756,097 per game.
Antetokounmpo averaged 32.1 minutes/game last year; if he does that this year, it works out to $23,554.44 per minute played.

— NFL Films and HBO also hit the jackpot; Miami Dolphins will be the featured in-season team for Hard Knocks this year, it was announced
Monday. Coach Mike McDaniel should be interesting to see in action.
Colts/Cardinals were the in-season teams on Hard Knocks the last two years. Dolphins were last featured on Hard Knocks in the summer of 2012.

Vikings 22, 49ers 17
Kirk Cousins was 35-45/378 passing, with two TD’s.
Vikings on their first six drives: 52 plays, 377 yards, 22 points.
Minnesota converted 8-13 third down plays.
All seven Viking games have been decided by 8 or fewer points.
Both teams turned the ball over on their first possession.
49ers were outgained 786-540 in their last two games.
McCaffrey carried ball 15 times for only 45 yards.
49ers are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in last five visits to Minnesota.

— College football conference trends:
AAC— home favorites 4-10 ATS, home underdogs 2-7
ACC— home underdogs 8-3 ATS
Big X— home underdogs 8-3 ATS
Big 14— home favorites 7-9 ATS, home underdogs 2-10 ATS
C-USA— home favorites 5-6 ATS, home underdogs 2-5
MAC— home favorites 6-7 ATS
Mountain West— home favorites 4-7 ATS
Pac-12— home underdogs 6-3 ATS
SEC— home favorites 11-7 ATS, home underdogs 4-8
Sun Belt— home favorites 7-8 ATS

— NFL divisional trends:
NFC East teams are 12-9-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North teams are 9-11-1 ATS outside the division
NFC South teams are 4-14 ATS outside the division
NFC West home teams are 5-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East home teams are 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North home teams are 6-2-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South teams are 11-5-1 ATS outside the division
AFC West teams are 6-12 ATS outside the division

— Saturday afternoon, the 4:00-7:00 window, I’m watching four games on one screen on my YouTube TV account; one game each from the Big 14, Big X, SEC, Pac-12.
Big 14— Minnesota-Iowa— Both teams should’ve punted on first down.
Big X— Texas-Houston— Teams that jumped from AAC to the Big X have some catching up to do.
SEC— Ole Miss-Auburn— Rebels are lucky to have Lane Kiffin as coach; he’s been a head coach in the NFL.
Pac-12— Washington State-Oregon— Wazzu QB Ward threw for 438 yards in a losing cause.
Interesting contrast in styles between the leagues.

— Utah declared that QB Cam Rising is out for the year with a knee injury; Utes are 6-1 with backup QB Barnes under center.

— When baseball free agency starts, obviously Shohei Ohtani will be a big topic, but there is another Japanese pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is expected to draw lot of interest from teams with lot of $$$ who need pitching.

— Word of the Day: Focus— the ability to concentrate attention or to sustain concentration.
If you’re easily distracted, you lack focus.

— Long time ago, there was a 2B named Nellie Fox; he is a Hall of Famer who played 19 years in the major leagues. In his career, Fox struck out only 216 times in 10,351 plate appearances.
This season, Kyle Schwarber struck out 215 times in 720 plate appearances.

— Outside Camden Yards in Baltimore, there is a statue of the great 3B Brooks Robinson, who passed away recently. It is a pretty normal statue of Robinson playing the field, except that his glove is gold, as it should be.

— Last week was the 50th anniversary of the day when Rams’ DE Fred Dryer got two safeties in the same game, a 22-5 win over Green Bay. Both safeties were in the 4th quarter and it was two different QB’s he sacked for the safeties (Scott Hunter, Jim Del Gaizo).

— What bowl game is going to get stuck with the Iowa Hawkeyes? Iowa is 6-2, but their offense is putrid; they’ve gained 300+ yards in only one game this year- they lost 12-10 to Minnesota Saturday, gaining a total of 127 yards, on 56 plays. Not good.
Former Rams’ coach Mike Martz is out there somewhere; why wouldn’t Iowa call a guy like Martz and hire him to jazz up their offense? Iowa’s last two games were 15-6/12-10; if they hired a real offensive coordinator like Martz, 15-6/12-10 would be a thing of the past.

— Monday was the first time since 2004 that the baseball playoffs had a Game 6 and a Game 7 on the same day.

Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 1
Arizona scored three runs in top of the second inning.
Pham and Gurriel hit back-to-back home runs.
Merrill Kelly tossed 5 IP, giving up a run; they took him out after 90 pitches.
Game 7 is tonight in Philadelphia.

Rangers 11, Astros 4
Adolis Garcia homered twice; he hit five home runs in the last four games.
Texas scored 20 runs in winning Games 6-7 of this series.
Road team won all seven games in this series.
Rangers host the World Series, starting Friday night.

— Baseball is a fascinating business; on February 10, 2021, the Rangers designated Adolis Garcia for assignment and cleared a spot on the 40-man roster for P Mike Foltynewicz.
All 29 of the other teams let Garcia clear waivers, and on February 13, 2021, Texas invited him as a non-roster player to camp. Lucky for them they did.
 

Udog

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LA LAKERS are 55-34 Over (17.6 Units) in road games in road games in the last 3 seasons.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 24

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NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 24

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NBA

Tuesday, October 24


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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Denver
LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of LA Lakers's last 24 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
Denver is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

Phoenix @ Golden State
Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Golden State
Golden State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix


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Cnotes53

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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 24

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LAL at DEN07:30 PMDEN -5.0
U 229.0
+500 +500
PHO at GS10:00 PMGS -2.0
U 234.5
+500 +500
 

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NBA OCTOBER BEST BETS !

10/24/2023...................................3 - 1..............................75.00%............................+ 9.50
 

Cnotes53

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NFL players who have scored the most points this year:
68— Jake Elliott, Phil
66— Raheem Mostert Mia/Christian McCaffrey SF
64— Harrison Butker, KC
63— Brett Maher, Rams/Ka’imi Fairbairn, Hst
60— Brandon Aubrey, Dal
59— Blake Grupe, NO

Quote of the Day
“It’s supposed to be hard. If it wasn’t hard, everyone would do it. The hard… is what makes it great.”
Tom Hanks in A League of Their Own

Wednesday’s quiz
Chris Paul has been in the NBA for 18 years; where did he play his college basketball?

Tuesday’s quiz
Detroit Lions are the only NFC team that has never played in a Super Bowl.

Monday’s quiz
Hall of Famer Dick Vermeil coached the Philadelphia Eagles, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

*****************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Diamondbacks 4, Phillies 2
Arizona’s bullpen tossed five scoreless innings.
Corbin Carroll went 3-4 with two runs scored, two RBI.
Arizona-Texas World Series starts Friday night in Dallas.

— Texas Rangers the last six years:
2018: 67-95
2019: 78-84
2020: 22-38
2021: 60-102
2022: 68-94
2023: 90-72
Texas hired Bruce Bochy as their new manager last winter; now they’re in the World Series. Bochy has previously led the Giants and Padres to four World Series. When this season is over, they should fly him to Cooperstown and induct him into the Hall of Fame. He deserves it.
Bochy is 6-0 in winner-take-all playoff games, by the way.

— For three days in February 2021, Adolis Garcia was a free agent, could’ve been scooped up by any major league team. You’re telling me that none of these over-educated Ivy League geniuses that run major league teams knew enough to sign him up?
Go figure.

— Houston Astros the last seven years:
2017- won World Series
2018- lost ALCS
2019- lost World Series
2020- lost ALCS
2021- lost World Series
2022- won World Series
2023- lost ALCS
Pretty nice run they’re on; there are rumors that manager Dusty Baker is going to retire— he is 74 years old. If he does retire, it’ll be interesting to see who they turn to as manager— they figure to be a contender for the next few years, at least.
Astros were 40-47 at home this season, 56-30 on the road; it makes no sense.

— New Mexico State 27, Louisiana Tech 24
New Mexico State kicked 31-yard FG with 5:16 left for the win.
Aggies ran ball 40 times for 232 yards.
New Mexico State has won four games in row, for first time since 2002.

— Liberty 42, Western Kentucky 29
Flames led 14-10 at half; they’re 8-0 this season.
Liberty ran ball 54 times for 323 yards, 6.0 yards/carry.
WKU QB Reed was 30-44 passing for 365 yards, 4 TD’s.

— Word of the Day: flummoxed— utterly confused or perplexed.
Handicapping NFL games this season has me flummoxed; lot of erratic play. Can’t get a handle on things yet.

— Saturday night in Seattle, Arizona State led Washington 7-6 with about 8:30 left; ASU had the ball deep in Washington territory, 4th-and-3.
8:30 left in the game, Washington hadn’t scored a TD the whole game. If the Sun Devils kick a field goal, they’re up 10-6, and Washington has to score a TD to win, something they hadn’t done the whole game. So they kick the field goal, right? Did I mention that Washington hadn’t scored a touchdown the whole game?
No- this is 2023, and football coaches are screwing up situational football; it actually is OK to be conservative now and then, really it is. Washington goes for it on 4th-and-3, and they throw a pick-6, and Washington winds up winning, 15-7.
Oy.

— Oregon QB Bo Nix started his 54th college game last week, the most by any college QB ever, passing Colt McCoy and Kellen Moore (now the Chargers’ OC).

— USC lost 34-32 to Utah Saturday: after the game, no Trojan players were made available to the media, which is a bad look for USC. How are you preparing your players for the next level when they don’t have to answer questions after a tough loss?
Also makes you wonder how Lincoln Riley would do if he coached in the NFL; media access is a given there, and their seasons are a lot longer than college seasons.

— Morehead State guard Mark Freeman, preseason OVC Player of the Year, hurt his wrist and is likely out for the season. Freeman scored 15 ppg last year and helped Morehead upset Clemson in the first round of the NIT.

— Montana Grizzlies have a shooting guard who is in his 7th year of college basketball; the guy is married with two kids.

— Zach Collins plays for the San Antonio Spurs; in five years, he’s started 42 of the 245 games he’s played in, playing 18.9 minutes a game. Last year, he scored 11.6 ppg while starting 26 of the 63 games he played in. He is complimentary player, nothing wrong with that, but for sure, he isn’t a star.
I remember seeing him play in a high school tournament in Las Vegas when he was in 10th grade, December 2013. He played for Bishop Gorman HS in Las Vegas.
Now he is really rich, just signed a 2-year deal with the Spurs for $35M. Playing in the NBA is really profitable, when subs are banking $17.5M a year.

— Washington Commanders on 3rd down, last four games:
Week 4- 8-17 @ Philadelphia
Week 5- 6-12 vs Chicago (14-27 in consecutive games)
Week 6- 2-10 @ Atlanta
Week 7- 1-15 @ NJ Giants (3-25 in last two games. Not good)

— Rams cut their kicker Tuesday; he missed two field goals and an extra point Sunday. The new kicker is Lucas Havrisik, who was on the Browns’ practice squad- he was on the Colts’ practice squad last year, after kicking in college at Arizona.

— San Francisco Giants made a good move and hired Bob Melvin as their new manager.
 

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ATLANTA is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.

INDIANA is 50-32 Over (14.8 Units) in home games in the last 3 seasons.

BOSTON is 16-4 Under (11.6 Units) on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) as a dog in the last 3 seasons.

BROOKLYN is 18-43 ATS (-29.3 Units) in home games as a home favorite in the last 3 seasons.

MIAMI is 164-215 ATS (-72.5 Units) in home games in the first half of the season since 1996.

MINNESOTA is 12-3 Over (8.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-8 ATS (13.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the last 3 seasons.

NEW ORLEANS are 41-25 Under (13.5 Units) as a road underdog in the last 3 seasons.

UTAH is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.

DALLAS are 156-111 ATS (33.9 Units) in road games vs. division opponents since 1996.

LA CLIPPERS are 15-3 Under (11.7 Units) in home games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
 

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NBA

Wednesday, October 25


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Trend Report
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Cnotes53

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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
WAS at IND07:00 PMIND -5.0
O 235.5
+500 +500
BOS at NY07:00 PMNY +3.5
U 223.0
+500 +500
HOU at ORL07:00 PMO 220.5+500
ATL at CHA07:00 PMATL -3.5
U 236.0
+500 +500
MIN at TOR07:30 PMTOR +1.0
U 221.5
+500 +500
CLE at BK07:30 PMCLE -2.5
U 219.0
+500 +500
DET at MIA07:30 PMDET +9.5
U 218.5
+500 +500
NO at MEM08:00 PMNO +1.0
U 224.5
+500 +500
OKC at CHI08:00 PMOKC +2.5
O 225.5
+500 +500
SAC at UTA09:00 PMSAC -2.0
O 234.0
+500 +500
DAL at SA09:30 PMDAL -4.5
O 230.5
+500 +500
POR at LAC10:30 PMPOR +9.0
O 225.5
+500 +500
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Passing yardage leaders in college football:
2,576— Michael Penix, Wash
2,573— Jayden Daniels, LSU
2,433— Brayden Schager, Hawai’i
2,420— Shedeur Sanders, Colo
2,280— Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
2,277— Caleb Williams, USC

Quote of the Day
“It’s silly, silly meaning my genuine feeling is that we have too many smart people that have looked at this and said we should be doing it and we haven’t taken the time to actually move it forward.”
LSU football coach Brian Kelly, on why the SEC hasn’t adopted headset communication between the sidelines and the QB, which would eliminate sign stealing issues

Thursday’s quiz
Which NFL team is the only one that hasn’t covered a spread (0-5-1) so far this season?

Wednesday’s quiz
Chris Paul has been in the NBA for 18 years; he played his college basketball at Wake Forest.

Tuesday’s quiz
Detroit Lions are the only NFC team that has never played in a Super Bowl.


*********************************************

Two dens for Thursday: NHL trends, and a story from the past

NHL trends (thru October 25)
I’ll try to post this once a week……..

Anaheim 2-4
— lost three of last four games.
— Ducks are 1-2 at home, 1-2 on road
— under 5-1

Arizona 3-3
— 1-0 at home, 2-3 on road.
— over 3-2 on road

Boston 6-0
— won all six of their games.
— under 2-0 at home, 3-1 on road.
— allowed seven goals in six games.

Buffalo 3-4
— 2-3 at home, 1-1 on road.
— under 5-2, 4-1 at home

Calgary 2-4-1
— lost five of last six games.
— 1-1 at home, 1-5 on road.
— over 4-3
— scored four goals in last three games

Carolina 3-4
— lost last three games, outscored 16-8
— 1-0 at home, 2-4 on road.
— over 6-1

Chicago 2-5
— lost five of last six games.
— 0-2 at home, 2-3 on road.
— under 6-1
— last three games, were outscored 12-3

Colorado 6-0
— Colorado won all six of its games
— 2-0 at home, 4-0 on road.
— over 3-3
— outscored opponents 28-12

Columbus 3-2-1
— 2-3 at home, 1-0 on road.
— under 4-1 on road

Dallas 4-0-1
— won four of first five games
— only loss was in OT
— 2-0 at home, 2-1 on road.
— under 4-1
— three of five games went to OT.

Detroit 5-1-1
— won five of last six games
— 3-1 at home, 2-1 on road.
— last four games went over total.

Edmonton 1-5
— lost five of first six games.
— 0-2 at home, 1-3 on road.
— over 3-1 on road

Florida 3-3
— won three of last four games.
— 2-1 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 2-1 at home, over 2-1 on road

Los Angeles 3-2-1
— won three of last four games.
— 1-3 at home, 2-0 on road.
— over is 5-1, 4-0 at home

Minnesota 3-2-1
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— last five games went over.
— allowed 6 goals in wins, 19 in losses.

Montreal 3-2-1
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— over 3-3

Nashville 3-4
— 2-2 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 4-1-1 last six games

New Jersey 3-2-1
— 1-3 at home, 2-0 on road.
— over is 6-0
— 4 of 6 games decided by one goal

NY Islanders 2-2-1
— lost last three games.
— 2-2 at home, 0-1 on road.
— under is 3-2
— allowed 2 goals in wins, 15 in losses

NY Rangers 4-2
— won three of last four games.
— 1-1 at home, 3-1 on road.
— under 5-1, 2-0 at home

Ottawa 3-3
— 3-2 at home, 0-1 on road.
— over 6-0
— allowed 5 goals in wins, 16 in losses

Philadelphia 3-3
— 2-0 at home, 1-3 on road.
— under 3-1 in their last four games.
— allowed 3 goals in wins, 13 in losses

Pittsburgh 2-4
— lost last three games, giving up 14 goals.
— 1-2 at home, 1-2 on road.
— under 2-1 at home, 2-1 on road

St Louis 2-3
— 2-1 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under is 4-1
— scored 11 goals in five games

San Jose 0-6
— lost their first six games.
— 0-4 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under is 4-1-1
— scored eight goals in six games

Seattle 2-5
— lost five of first seven games.
— 1-2 at home, 1-3 on road.
— under is 5-2, 3-1 on road

Tampa Bay 3-4
— 3-1 at home, 0-3 on road.
— over 3-1 at home, 2-1 on road
— 0-2 in OT/SO

Toronto 4-2
— 2-1 at home, 2-1 on road.
— under 3-1 last four games
— 2-0 in OT/SO
— scored 21 goals in wins, 2 in losses

Vancouver 4-2
— 1-0 at home, 3-2 on road.
— over 4-2

Vegas 7-0
— won their first seven games.
— 4-0 at home, 3-0 on road.
— under 4-0 home, over 2-1 road

Washington 1-4
— lost four of first five games.
— 1-2 at home, 0-2 on road.
— under 4-1

Winnipeg 3-3
— 2-2 at home, 1-1 on road.
— over 2-1-1 home, 1-1 road
— allowed 14 goals in first four games, 4 goals in last two games.

**********************************************

A story from the past……..

One of my favorite movies was on today, Searching for Bobby Fischer; Joe Mantegna is a sportswriter who is surprised to find out that his 11-year old son is a chess prodigy. It is a great movie: Mantegna, Ben Kingsley, Lawrence Fishburne, William H Macy.
Anyway, when I was in 8th grade 50 years ago, chess was a big deal. Bobby Fischer was a quirky chess grandmaster who was playing Russian Boris Spassky for the world title, and it got a ton of attention— for a couple years in the early 70’s, chess was a big deal.
A friend of my parents had taught me how to play; in May of 1973, there was a tournament of all the Catholic grade schools in Albany County, probably 50 or so kids on a Saturday morning. Two kids from our school went; I had never beaten the other kid. Ever.

So our 8th grade teacher picks us up at the other kid’s house to go to the tournament, but we played a game before he got there, and I beat him.
This had never happened before.
We get to the tournament, played in a ratty old gym, and the games begin. I won my first game, but the other kid, who seriously was a much better player than me, he got beat and just like that, he was eliminated. He very rarely played sports as a kid, and the competition apparently wasn’t his thing. I sucked at sports, but enjoyed playing.

Thinking about it, it was a lot like the scenes in this movie; just a bunch of nerdy kids hunched over chess boards, studying their moves.
While my parents’ friend taught me how to play chess, I had my own ideas, which weren’t better ideas, but I was incapable of grinding out moves, playing patterns, the way great players do.

I just played fast, got my queen out as quickly as possible, tried to do damage with the queen, and it often got people off their games, because it was different.

So I win two more games, and now there are a lot fewer kids in the gym; my 4th game, the board is set up with plastic chess pieces. My opponent requests that we switch to a wooden chess set, a classic Bobby Fischer mind game move, which I had no idea of at the time.
He crushed me, not even close and my teacher took the two of us home. I was happy that at least I won a few games— had never played in a tournament before.

The phone rings in our house and it is a nun from the chess tournament; I had lost, but I wasn’t done playing yet, there were still games to be played to determine who won the championship, so my father drove me back to the gym and he had to sit there watching his nerdy kid play chess.
I won two more games, and the whole event came down to this: I was playing this girl in the last game of the tournament. If she won, she won the championship and I finished 3rd.

If I won, the jerk who beat me won the championship and I finished 2nd. (don’t ask, I can’t remember how/why they ran the tournament like this, but they did)

Seriously, I didn’t like that kid after he beat me; I went over to look at the 2nd/3rd place prizes. If the 3rd place prize was good, I was considering losing on purpose so he wouldn’t win the tournament, but the 3rd place price was cruddy, and the 2nd place prize was this small plastic scroll that at least looked like a trophy, so I tried to win.

(This is where I realize that I was an over-thinker, even at age 13)
Anyway, we sit down and play the last game; my opponent was very nervous; her hand was shaking when she moved her chess pieces. It didn’t take long to beat her, and the jerk won the championship trophy.
50 years later, the small plastic scroll is still hanging in my living room. That was a fun day.
 

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17,244
16
38
MILWAUKEE is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

PHOENIX is 34-19 ATS (13.1 Units) off a road win in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, October 26


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NBA

Thursday, October 26


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Trend Report
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Philadelphia @ Milwaukee
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home

Phoenix @ LA Lakers
Phoenix
Phoenix is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
LA Lakers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home


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NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 26


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Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
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THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
PHI at MIL07:30 PMMIL -6.0
O 227.5
+500 +500
PHO at LAL10:00 PMPHO +6.5
U 227.0
+500 +500
 
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