Thurdays Service Plays 6/12/08

[the duke]

BIG ALMcMORDIE

AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH! [ MLB ]

At 7:05pm our selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians 'under' the total. With both Jake Westbrook (elbow) and Fausto Carmona (hip) out for Cleveland, 23 year-old lefthander Aaron Laffey has filled in very well and has definitely earned the right to stay in the Indian rotation. You may notice that his ERA in his last three starts is 5.60, but this is very misleading, as he had a very bad start two outings ago at Texas, but that is actually his only bad start of the entire season (since his first start back on April 28 against the Yankees). Laffey is not really an overpowering strikeout pitcher, but rather a control specialist, and he has yet to give up more than two walks in a game all season. He gets the perfect assignment to keep it going tonight vs. the Twins, as Minnesota has had serious problems scoring runs lately. Livan Hernandez, the ageless wonder, will oppose Laffey, and he continues to pay big dividends as the Twins have won ten of his fourteen starts this year. Oddly enough, although Hernandez seems to have been pitching in the Majors forever, he has not faced Cleveland since the 1997 World Series. The 'under' is 13-5 in Cleveland's last eighteen home games, and 21-8-2 in the last 31 meetings of these two teams. AL Total of the Month on the 'under'.




Free Pick

Date/Time: 6/12/2008 3:05PM EST
Pick: Giants

Reason: At 3:05pm our complimentary selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies. San Francisco's AT&T Park may be one of the nicest Major League venues in which to watch a baseball game, but the Giants probably don't mind getting out of there as they are the only team in Major League Baseball to have a significantly better record on the road than at home. Fresh off their four game sweep against the Nationals in DC, the Giants have lost two road games in a row at Coors Field to begin this series against the Rockies, the last one being a real heartbreaking 1-0 loss with their ace Tim Lincecum on the mound Wednesday night. The good news for tonight's game is that they get to face a starter in 22 year-old righthander Greg Reynolds who has some of the ugliest rookie stats I've seen in quite some time. When you look at Reynolds' strikeouts and walks numbers it is not a misprint. In just over 34 innings pitched this season, Reynolds has just nine strikeouts to go with 20 free passes. This does not bode well for facing Major League hitters. Reynolds will have his hands full this afternoon at home against a team that has really been hitting the snot out of the ball lately. In their last nine games the Giants have failed to score at least five runs on only three occasions. Take the Giants.

 

[the duke]

Ben Burns

***HUGE GAME ALERT*** PLAYOFF GAME OF YEAR! $40.00
Ben Burns didn't release a 'side' selection on Game 3, instead easily cashing his ticket on the 'under.' That 27 pt winner brought Burns to a SIZZLING 16-6-1 his L23 NBA plays and an AWESOME 27-11-2 his L40. This renowned "Big Game Expert" is also an EPIC 9-1 his last 10 "GOY" releases. This is THE BIG ONE. Go get it!


Los Angeles Lakers -8.0

 

[the duke]

IndianCowboy

Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Lakers - Thursday June 12, 2008 9:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)

I like that the spread has come down a little bit from game 3. The Lakers held court in game 3 and I look for them to do the same in game 4. While I thought 9.5 was too much in game 3, I think it would be just about right for game 4. The Lakers desperately need to win game 4 so they don?t go down 3 games to 1. Paul Pierce may play a little better in game 4 but I think the Lakers can play a whole lot better as well. I think the Lakers really take it to the Celtics in game 4 and cover the spread. The Celtics showed some of their earlier road playoff game woes when they couldn?t match the intensity of the Lakers for the majority of the game in game 3 and it should continue in game 4 as the Lakers are only going to have more confidence now.

 

[the duke]

VEGAS SPORTS PICS


Pittsburgh (Gorzelanny) -125** over Washington (Bergmann)


Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) -130* over Atlanta (Hudson)


St Louis (Pineiro) +115* over Cincinnati (Arroyo)


Philadelphia (Moyer) -110* over Florida (Olsen)

 

[the duke]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

MLB

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (39-28) at Florida (36-29)
The Phillies, who are looking to avoid a three-game sweep in South Beach, will hand the ball to 45-year-old left-hander Jamie Moyer (6-3, 4.56 ERA) at Dolphin Stadium, while the Marlins are set to go with 24-year-old left-hander Scott Olsen (4-2, 3.44). Philadelphia arrived in Miami with a four-game winning streak, but has dropped the first two games of this series by scores of 5-4 and 6-2. The Phillies are still 7-3 in their last 10 contests (4-2 on the road), and they continue to lead the pesky Marlins by two games in the N.L. East. Florida has followed up a 2-8 slump by winning four of its last five, all at home, where the Fish sport a 22-14 record this season. These two teams are finishing off their second series of the year, and the Marlins carry a 3-2 lead after Wednesday?s win. Philadelphia is 1-5 in its last six at Florida, but the Phils are on an 8-0 tear in Moyer?s last eight starts against the Marlins. Moyer has been red-hot regardless of the opponent lately, helping the Phillies to five straight wins and a 6-1 record in his last seven outings, with the old-timer going 5-1 with one no-decision in that stretch. On Friday at Atlanta, he allowed two runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings and left trailing 2-1, but the Phillies came back for a 4-3 win in 10 innings. Moyer is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six road outings this season, and he?s a perfect 8-0 with a 3.51 ERA in eight career starts against Florida, despite getting tagged for five runs on seven hits in seven innings 11 days ago at home. The Phillies gave him just enough offensive support in that one to take a 7-5 victory. Olsen started the season with three wins and a no-decision, but he?s gotten a rash of no-decisions and just one win since April 20. On Saturday at home against Cincinnati, he allowed four runs on four hits ? all in the sixth inning ? to blow a 4-0 lead, but Florida put up three runs in the bottom of the ninth to claim an 8-7 win, giving Olsen six no-decisions in his last nine starts. On the bright side, Florida is 9-4 in Olson?s 13 outings this year, including 6-2 at home.
Olsen is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in eight home starts this year, but he?s 3-4 with a soaring 6.00 ERA in nine career starts against Philly. Last year, he faced the Phillies three times and posted a 6.91 ERA, but Florida won all three contests (all at home). The Phillies sport a plethora of positive trends, winning 12 of their last 16 overall and going 7-1 against left-handed starters, 9-4 in roadies against lefties and 6-1 on Thursday. With Moyer on the mound, Philadelphia is on runs of 4-0 against winning teams, 5-1 on the highway, 21-5 against the National League East and 7-3 in the third game of a series. The Marlins have been solid behind Olsen, going 10-4 in his last 14 overall since the end of 2007, 4-0 in his last four Thursday starts, 4-1 in his last five against winning teams, 7-2 in his past nine at home, and 5-2 in the third game of a series. In addition, Florida is 9-3 in its last 12 home games and 10-1 at home against winning teams, but the Marlins are still only 4-7 in their last 11 games against N.L. East foes. The over is 6-1 in Moyer?s last seven starts overall, 5-0 in Olsen?s last five outings, 4-1 in Olsen?s last five at home and 39-9-2 in his last 41 outings on four days? rest. The under has cashed in the first two games of this series, but the over is still 36-16-1 in the last 53 clashes overall and 48-18-3 in the past 69 meetings in Florida. Also, the Marlins have ?over? trends of 22-6-3 overall, 7-2 at home, 6-2-1 versus winning teams, 8-1-1 against left-handers, 5-0 in the third game of a series. However, the Phillies have stayed under the total in nine straight games, and the under is 5-0 in their last five against the N.L. East.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (33-33) at Oakland Athletics (35-30)
Left-hander Andy Pettitte (5-5, 4.99 ERA) will toe the slab for the Yankees when they face the A?s and struggling right-hander Joe Blanton (3-8, 4.15) in the rubber match of a three-game series at McAfee Coliseum. The Yankees opened this series with Tuesday?s 3-1 victory, but Oakland bounced back with an 8-4 rout last night. Although the A?s are 2-3 in their last five, they?re 10-5 in their last 15 home contests. Meanwhile, New York is 5-3 in its last seven and has fallen back to .500 on the season. Oakland is now 9-3 in the last 12 clashes with the Yanks, including 5-2 in the last seven at home. Moreover, the Yankees have dropped their last six games against the A?s with Pettitte throwing, and Pettitte is 0-4 in his last four outings at Oakland. The Yanks have gone 3-1 in Pettitte?s last four starts, with the veteran winning the first two, then getting shellacked in the past two but still coming out with a pair of no-decisions. On Saturday in the Bronx against Kansas City, he gave up 10 runs ? all earned ? on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings and left trailing 10-6 after the Royals? five-run seventh. But New York put up six runs over the final three innings to win 12-11. Pettitte is 4-2 with a 3.95 ERA in seven road starts this season, and he?s 8-5 with a 3.59 ERA in 17 career starts against Oakland. Blanton is just 1-4 with two no-decisions in his last seven starts, getting tagged with a loss in his last two outings. On Friday against the Angels, he surrendered three runs on seven hits in seven innings, but the Athletics mustered just one run in a 3-1 home loss. Blanton has tossed at least six innings in his last five starts, but Oakland is just 1-4 in that span. In fact, the A?s are just 4-10 in the burly right-hander?s 14 starts in 2008. Blanton has a serviceable 3.84 ERA at the Coliseum this year, but he is just 1-6 in 10 starts, eight of which Oakland has lost. He?s also 0-3 with a hefty 9.39 ERA in three career starts against New York. The Yankees had a nine-game winning streak against the A.L. West halted with last night?s defeat, but they?re still on hot runs of 39-14 in the third game of a series and 8-4 against winning teams. Furthermore, with Pettitte on the mound, they are on streaks of 4-0 in the third game of a series, 4-0 on Thursday, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 10-4 on the highway and 17-8 with the veteran hurler going on four days? rest. The A?s are 12-5 in their last 17 against the A.L. East and are on additional upticks of 4-0 against left-handed starters and 5-1 in Game 3 of a series. The over is 4-1 in Pettitte?s last five starts overall, 4-0 in his last four against the A.L. West and 7-1 in Blanton?s last eight versus the A.L. East. Conversely, the under is 13-5 in Pettitte?s last 18 when going on four days? rest, 7-2 in his last nine against winning teams, 7-1 in his past eight on the road, 35-17-2 in Blanton?s past 54 at home, 13-5 in Blanton?s last 18 against winning teams and 4-1 in his last five on Thursday. For New York, the under is on runs of 13-6 on the road, 14-7 on the highway against winning teams and 6-3 overall against winning teams, though the over is 10-4 in its last 14 against the A.L. West. Meanwhile, the over is 7-2-1 in Oakland?s last 10 Thursday contests, but the under is 8-3-1 in its past 12 against left-handed starters. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 10-5 in the last 15 clashes at the Coliseum, but the under is 9-5 in the last 14 meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND



NBA FINALS

(1) Boston (14-9, 11-12 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (13-5, 10-7-1 ATS)
The Lakers, who were barely able to get back on track in a must-win situation in Game 3, look to square this best-of-seven championship series when they host the Celtics for Game 4 at Staples Center.
Los Angeles held off Boston for an 87-81 home victory Tuesday night, but failed to cash as a heavy 9?-point home chalk. Kobe Bryant poured in 36 points and Sasha Vujacic added 20, but they were the only Lakers to reach double figures. However, only two Celtics reached double digits in scoring, as well, with Ray Allen scoring 25 and Kevin Garnett tallying 13, while Paul Pierce shot a dismal 2-for-14 and finished with just six points. Boston, which had been horrible at the betting window through much of the playoffs, has cashed in four straight games and five of its last seven dating to the Eastern Conference finals against Detroit. Los Angeles, conversely, is 0-3 ATS in the Finals and has followed an 8-1-1 ATS run by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine. The Celtics are now 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS against the Lakers this season (2-0 ATS at Staples). Prior to covering the spread in the last five battles, Boston had gone 1-7 ATS against Los Angeles. Finally, the host is still 4-2 ATS in the last six head-to-head contests in this storied rivalry. Despite Monday?s cover, Doc Rivers? Celtics are still just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS on the highway in the playoffs. But they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-0 against the Pacific Division, 12-2 against the Western Conference (5-0 last five), 4-1 on Thursday and a lengthy 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a spread-cover. Boston is also 9-2 ATS this year as an underdog of three points or more. The Lakers, who have won 15 consecutive home games going back to March 28, are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in playoff games at Staples this year. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home dating to the regular season, 5-1 ATS in their last six on Thursday, 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win and a solid 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 when going on one day of rest. On the flip side, Los Angeles is mired in pointspread funks of 0-7-1 in the NBA Finals, 0-6 against the Eastern Conference, 0-4 against the Atlantic Division and 1-6 at home against teams with a winning road record. Game 3 fell miles short of the 195?-point posted price, and the under is now 2-1 in this series. The total has alternated in each of the last six meetings between these teams, though the over is still 6-3 in the last nine clashes at Staples Center.
The under for Boston is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 4-1 on one day of rest and 4-1 on Thursday. For Los Angeles, the under streaks include 7-1 overall, 5-0 after a SU win, 5-0 on one day of rest, 4-0 at home and 10-1 in Thursday contests. That said, the over is 11-5 in the Lakers? last 16 battles against Atlantic Division foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 

[the duke]

PlusLineSports

edit admin

 

[the duke]

Ben Burns

***EARLY BLOWOUT***

June Getaway Day G.O.M! $35.00

Back on 4/10, Ben Burns cashed his April Getaway Day GOM, a 7-0 WINNER on the Rays. Last month, on 5/7, Burns released his May Getaway Day GOM, a 9-0 WINNER on the Reds. Last Thursday, Ben released his Getaway Day GOW on the A's, a 10-2 WINNER. This afternoon, Burns unleashes his June Getaway Day GOM. You know what to do!

K.C. Royals

 

[the duke]

Dr Bob

1st selection in about a month's worth of games

I'll take Boston in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 1/2 or +6 points

 

[the duke]

Professional Gambler Newsletter

Thursday, June 12, 2008

CELTICS +7.5 -104 at Lakers
Celtics at Lakers UNDER 191.5 -108

Major League Baseball:
ASTROS +125 over Brewers (Moehler-Sheets) (OR +1.5 -132)


ASTROS +125 over Brewers (Moehler-Sheets) (OR +1.5 -132)

The average bettor figures to like Sheets on the mound over Moehler, but if you'll check recent history, the Astros have allowed fewer hits when starting Moehler than the Brewers have allowed when starting Sheets. Add in a little home field advantage and we have to think the Astros and Moehler have at least some edge over the Brewers and Sheets. At the other end of the pitch, the Astros are currently getting more than 11 hits per 9 innings at bat, the Brewers are getting only about 9.5 hits per 9 innings at bat. (The average National League team gets 9 hits in 9 innings.) We'd lay as much as -120 with the Astros here, so getting odds of +125 makes this a relatively strong play for us.



CELTICS +7.5 -104 at Lakers
Celtics at Lakers UNDER 191.5 -108

So far, we're 3-0 against this series but tonight's game figures to be our tightest play yet. A lot figures to be determined by events on the floor...Emotions, anger, confidence, and plenty of other motivations figure to move back and forth between the individual players as the game progresses. Keep in mind that the Celtics' season record on the road is as good as the Lakers' record at home. That's important to note. Against a team as good as the Celtics, it is very difficult to win twice in a row. Nevertheless, My friend Jack Painter taught me a handicapping tool many years ago that goes like this: "If you heard the score of this game ended up 120 to 80, could you guess who won?"


Think about that....At 120-80 we'd have to guess the Lakers won the game. That doesn't bode well for our play on the Celtics +7.5.

Now, what if you heard the total score of the game turned out to be less than 180 points?...This looks like a good time to use a 2-bet parlay. The lower the total score, the more likely the Celtics will cover. The higher the total score, the more likely the Lakers will cover.

 

[the duke]

GAMBLERS WORLD


TIP OF THE DAY

9:00PM, Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Current Line: -110
Over/Under: 192

Reason: The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday night when they battle at STAPLES Center in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.Oddsmakers currently have the Lakers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Celtics, while the game's total is sitting at 192. Kobe Bryant went for 36 points and seven rebounds to lead the Lakers to an 87-81 win over the Celtics in Game 3 of the Finals on Tuesday.Los Angeles failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites as the teams played UNDER the194-point total set by oddsmakers.Sasha Vujacic added 20 points off the bench for the Lakers, who now trail the Celtics 2-1 in the best-of-seven series.Ray Allen paced Boston with 25 points, while Kevin Garnett scored 13 points and hauled down 12 boards for the Celtics.

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness


Triple-Dime bet962 SDP (-145)Bookmaker vs 961 LOS
Analysis: Managers have to make "tough calls" all the time. Bud Black's decision to start Jake Peavy against the Dodgers today was NOT one of them. Last year's Cy Young award winner in the NL has been sidelined since May 20 with a strained right elbow. Peavy participated in a four-inning simulated start last Saturday and felt no pain, so Black didn't think a rehab start was needed. Especially when he could start Peavy against LA. The Dodgers are not scoring at all these days, averaging only 3.05 RPG over their last 20 games. On the season, they are 21-27 vs right-handers averaging 3.9 RPG and that breaks down to 8-14 on the road, including 4-7 in day games, where they've averaged only 3.0 RPG. In Peavy, they'll face a pitcher they've NEVER been able to hit. Peavy's already beaten them twice earlier this year 4-1 and 7-4, allowing four ERs over 15 innings (2.40 ERA). So what else is new? He faced LA five times last year, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA as the Padres won all five meetings. He's 11-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 20 career starts vs LA, with the team going 14-6. It also should be noted that since San Diego moved into pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Peavy is 5-0 with a 1.18 ERA in seven starts vs LA with the Padres winning all seven games. Peavy's return also coincides with the Padres seemingly getting "back in stride." LA did win Tuesday's game 7-2 but the Padres won 4-1 last night, giving them SIX wins in their last seven games. While San Diego has struggled at the plate for most of the year, the team is 6-2 at home in day games vs right-handed starters in '08, while averaging a healthy 5.5 RPG. Righty Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.49 ERA) will get the start for LA and he's coming off the best start of his rookie season. He allowed four hits and struck out a career-high 11 (no walks) in Friday's 3-0 win over the Cubs for his first career complete game, retiring 16 of the last 17 batters he faced. However, that start came in Dodgers Stadium and his performances away from home have not turned out as well. It's not that his ERA is all that bad (it's 3.95) but in seven starts he's 1-5 and the team is 2-5. That's what happens when you get little run support and he surely can't expect to get much support here with the Dodgers facing their perennial nemesis, Peavy.

NL Game of the Month

20* SD Padres

 

[the duke]

KBHoops

NBA
4 units LA Lakers -7.5

MLB
4 units Dodgers +135

 

[the duke]

Steam On-Line

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Boston w/Lester -156 6:05 EST




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San Diego w/Peavy -140 3:35 EST


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Philadelphia w/Moyer -120 7:10 EST

 

[the duke]

Alex Smart

MLB 2* SD Padres



Mike Rose

MLB 3* La Dodgers


LT Profits

MLB 3* La Dodgers

 

[the duke]

Stu Feiner

Having built some confidence with a victory in Game 3 despite not playing all that particularly well, I expect the Lakers to be clicking on all cylinders tonight at the Staples Center in absolutely blowing out these Celtics to even this best-of-seven NBA Finals at two games a piece. This one will be rout city folks! As we saw on Tuesday night and we?ll witness again this evening, the Lakers will come out and be very aggressive in attacking the basket. L.A. made almost as many free throws in the first four minutes of Game 3 than it did in the entirety of Game 2. Though Kobe missed seven free throws Tuesday, he was aggressive and got calls. Look for more of the same this evening as Kobe, who shot 18 free throws Tuesday, will again attack the basket and get to the charity stripe. And that puts Boston in foul trouble.



Kobe had 11 first quarter points in Game 2. That helped him get in a rhythm. The thing is that he?ll be in rhythm this evening and this time he?ll get some help. Guys like Odom, Fisher and Gasol are too good to stay in a funk this long. Tonight is breakout night baby. And I liked what I saw from L.A. in Game 3 with regards to the battle on the boards as the Celtics managed to out-rebound the Lakers by just one on Tuesday night. That tells me they?re working and putting forth the effort to make this thing happen. What that does is lead to easier field goal attempts as L.A. shot 43.5 % from the floor in Game 3 to Boston?s 34.9%. The lack of help for Kobe outside of Vujacic kept things close on Tuesday night. That won?t be the case this evening as Odom will finally show up this evening. As will the Lakers? bench, which outscored Boston?s reserves 29-21 in Game 3. These guys are back at home and that?s where they play best. After all, we?re talking about an L.A. team that has won 15 consecutive games at the Staples Center, going 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS in the playoffs. Overall, L.A. has covered eight of its last 11 at home.



We?ve seen throughout these playoffs that Boston is just not the same team on the road that it is at home. The Celtics are now a mere 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS on the road in the postseason. Almost always, at least one of their big three doesn?t show up on the road. Tuesday night it was two of ?em and I wouldn?t be surprise me if it was more of the same tonight. And what is the sore-ankled Rondo going to be able to contribute? Not much in my opinion. One can argue that this line is too high, and a good case probably could be made based on the first three games. But tonight is different. The Lakers have a win under their belts and a victory tonight makes this a best-of-three series, and L.A. hasn?t put forth its best yet.



L.A. had the right mindset Tuesday night in being aggressive, they just didn?t convert. They played good defense and their offensive aggression allowed them to get to the free throw line. And since there?s been so much talk of officiating of late, let?s look at tonight?s officiating crew. Joe Derosa was the No. 1 homer in the league this year with home teams going 51-27 ATS in games he worked. Tom Washington was 48-31 ATS in favor of the home team. L.A. will attack, attack, attack from the opening tip and have Boston on its heels from the get go. Who appeared to be the freshest player on the court Tuesday night? Kobe Bryant, that?s who. This is the league MVP people. He will come large for this battle tonight. L.A. has the momentum and they will be in better rhythm this evening. The Lakers will be alive and confident and this game will be a blowout very early as the Lakers cruise with no problem to this double-digit win and cover.



1,000,000 Dime Bet

LA Lakers

 

[the duke]

Yankee Capper

MLB Premium Plays


5 Units - Boston Red Sox -160
4 Units - San Diego Padres -145



Already Started

5 Units - New York Mets -155
4 Units - Chicago Cubs -145
4 Units - Nationals/Pirates Over 9
3 Units - Milwaukee Brewers -135
3 Units - Pittsburgh Pirates -130
2 Units - Chicago White Sox +105
2 Units - Texas Rangers +110

 

[loko]

lang or budin? thanks

 

[zoom232]

EZ WINNERS anyone?
Thx

 

[renogjm]

Lang

15 Dimes - Lakers