Thurs 1/2 College Hoop Call

[Riff-Raff]

Funny how you can post winners and those same douchebags go into hibernation conveniently.

Duquesne/St Louis OVER 134..10 u 💪💪💪 Strongest Play

William and Mary/Hofstra Over 150'... 10 u 💪 💪 Strong

Lasalle/Dayton Under 137'...10 u 💪

So Dakota St -2.......10 u 💪

UMKC -3............10 u 💪

Gluck Today!

 

[Riff-Raff]

One More (Big Card)

Gardner-Webb/Campbell Over 128'.....10 u 💪

 

[DMD252]

RR: Very disappointed, Yesterday you went 3-0 for the sweep, but the day before you only went 3-1 and no sweep. Why didn't you win that game and go 4-0 for 7-0 and a two consecutive days sweeps. Please try harder.
Best of Luck

 

[Keith 1]

Thank you for the consistent winners :0074

Does it concern you that Duquesne/St. Louis total is down to 132 ?

 

[Musca]

Its one big group that Bought the SLU Under... They were able to move the market across the board but it is originating from one group.


FWIW- Not sure that helps.

I lean to the Duquesne game over as well...

 

[Keith 1]

Its one big group that Bought the SLU Under... They were able to move the market across the board but it is originating from one group.


FWIW- Not sure that helps.

I lean to the Duquesne game over as well...

It is 131 now. Three points is a noticeable move.

 

[Musca]

Keith-

What happens is you have the sharp/group make their buy and then the chasers will come behind and steam the play and thus a 1.5 pt move will turn into a 3 or 4 (in some case much more) move. That's why I try to tell people do not chase the move...
If that comes across as condescending I did not mean for it to... Just talking about the dynamics of a sharp move followed by "steam"

 

[Keith 1]

Keith-

What happens is you have the sharp/group make their buy and then the chasers will come behind and steam the play and thus a 1.5 pt move will turn into a 3 or 4 (in some case much more) move. That's why I try to tell people do not chase the move...
If that comes across as condescending I did not mean for it to... Just talking about the dynamics of a sharp move followed by "steam"

Not condescending at all. But I have to say that, in my almost 40 years of gambling (started with those parlay sheets in junior high school--LOL), I have found from my personal experience, that when the lines move that significantly (I am not talking about a point, point and a half here. I am talking about 2 and a half, 3 points, etc...) it is usually NOT a good omen. I certainly hope I am wrong, as I played the Duquesne/St. Loo over at 132.

 

[Musca]

I do not disagree with that- But I believe that if you actually sat down and did the numbers on line moves of 3 or more points I would bet ATS wise you come out pretty even... Because if it were significant every 3 point move would become a 4,5,6 point etc etc ... KNow what I mean?

I am not arguing the merits of over or under on this play. I was really talking about the group that bought the under and then the public steamers coming behind them...

LFG either way

NBL

J

 

[Keith 1]

I do not disagree with that- But I believe that if you actually sat down and did the numbers on line moves of 3 or more points I would bet ATS wise you come out pretty even... Because if it were significant every 3 point move would become a 4,5,6 point etc etc ... KNow what I mean?

I am not arguing the merits of over or under on this play. I was really talking about the group that bought the under and then the public steamers coming behind them...

LFG either way

NBL

J

Now I am seeing 129. Which is a full 5 points less than what Riff posted it at (and 3 points less than the 132 I got it at this morning). Clearly something is going on here.

 

[Musca]

Steam brother...
Public is now chasing the move... They are reacting the same way you are and now chasing the number down.

Happens every day. Anatomy of a line move in NCAAB

 

[DMD252]

Keith 1: The way I see it is: if Riff likes the over at 134, he must love it at 129. Best of Luck on your play.

 

[LordofBalls]

RR: Very disappointed, Yesterday you went 3-0 for the sweep, but the day before you only went 3-1 and no sweep. Why didn't you win that game and go 4-0 for 7-0 and a two consecutive days sweeps. Please try harder.
Best of Luck

:142smilie

 

[LordofBalls]

I played over 128.5.... and feel pretty good about it!

it's funny, I'm looking at the "live odds" the MJ offers.... I'm seeing 129s and 126.5...that alone is a decent middle if I had accts at both places.. buy un 130.5/over 125.5.... risking juice only... and gotta shot at 5pt middle :shrug:

MUSCA... RIFF-RAFF...
In the 'hypothetical' situation described above, how many "middle" points do you guys usually feel is necessary to try for 'middles'?


I know it doesn't apply to us rooting for the 'over' in the game, but I've seen it happen several times/week in college hoops....

I haven't been paying much attn to cbk the last wk and missed some solid, ez winners.. but I know there's more where those came from :0074


GL Everybody!

 

[Musca]

Middling; This is really dependent on your style. if you are a high volume player with 3 to 500$ unit then I would be looking for a middle at 2.5 points.

Low volume players who are more research based then I would be looking for a middle at the 3.5 point range.




For me personally- I rarely try to middle before the game unless I have moves over 7.5 points (which I get from time to time in WNCAA) I look for middle ops more in game and 2nd half. But that is my preference. I am a little more conservative than others.

J

 

[LordofBalls]

Middling; This is really dependent on your style. if you are a high volume player with 3 to 500$ unit then I would be looking for a middle at 2.5 points.

Low volume players who are more research based then I would be looking for a middle at the 3.5 point range.




For me personally- I rarely try to middle before the game unless I have moves over 7.5 points (which I get from time to time in WNCAA) I look for middle ops more in game and 2nd half. But that is my preference. I am a little more conservative than others.

J

okay Musca, I get ya:0074


Now...

how u feel about buying pts to create a larger middle..?
Is it something that you've ever tracked in your season results...? to see if your win ($$ or %) actually hit often enough to justify buying on a consistent basis in a 'middle' scenario?

not trying to create a 'work project' for you or anything, but just wondering if you've ever tracked it?
Can't really do it much in cfb/nfl as the juice to buy off 3, 6, 7 is too prohibitive most of the time in my eyes.

anyway.. food for thought!

GL tonight!
LoB

ps....
by the way.. StL total climbing bk up.. 130.5/131 right now... makes me like my over 128.5 a little more!

 

[Musca]

I can say DEFINITIVELY that I do not buy points.

Let me say this; Not getting into win % or records and only talking ROI:

Currently in WNCAA with all bets made at -120 my ROI is 12.53% if those bets would have been made at -110 my ROI would be 16.5% So that 10 cents of vig impacts my ROI by 4%. Now, if you started buying points to hit a middle.

On a game like tonight; Under 134 and over 128.5 Say you buy the half to come down to 128

Game lands at 125 you have now won your -110 wager but lost you -120 (OR MORE) wager on the over... Thus your profits are cut by at least 10 cents per dollar... See what I am saying? But let me say this. I am a dinosaur. I do not automate my wagering process. I use algorithms but just as qualifiers not as the only methodology. I still handicap old school. I also do not calculate Closing Line Value (CLV) as I am not as concerned about that as I am about picking winners.

There are a facet of gamblers (pros) that believe getting the best number is the most important thing is gambling. I do not operate that way but...

Methodology is something we could talk about for YEARS. I love this shit. I am attempting to modernize everything but still give me a website, some stats, and the local newspaper and I will get you some winners. I win because I know every player on the court not because my algorithm is so good.... make sense? I have a buddy who has NO IDEA who the players are and he clears 7 figures a year.

o.k. Back into my cave. Having a tough day.

Take care

Jason

 

[LordofBalls]

thanks Jason ~ appreciate the input! :0074

1 of these yrs I'll start (and keep) tracking questions like that one...
but I guess for it to be totally accurate you'd have to set parameters/be consistent about which situations you will play for a middle, and say you allow yourself a half pt or full point buy in each scenario consistently... and then compute every result w/o taking days off or interacting with the rest of humanity that may not be using a keyboard lol

By avoiding keeping those records, I have a little more time to be a human not obsessed with sports scores/results 364 days/year

 

[Musca]

One of the biggest weaknesses or areas of opportunity are moneylines...

If you track line movement (which I do like crazy) you will see some books will move a line a half or a full point without moving the moneyline with it... That creates ops in the system. I am not sure if you have ever seen me post FCS bets but you will see I say- Every single dog that I play I also play the corresponding moneyline. There is amazing opportunity to hit moneylines.


Tracking things... Dude I have NOTEBOOKS of handwritten notes in addition to the 3 laptops and desktop that I use for this. It is a true full time job. and there are SO SO MANY systems to track and so many things to track.


FWIW ST. Louis game landed at 132- 2nd half over was pretty obvious here. Riff has been getting killed by the close ones but watch out because his numbers start to get dialed in now and he does damage.

Riff sorry to hijack your thread brother. Did not mean to. I appreciate your work. Even if I do not tell you daily! I really do.

 

[LordofBalls]

yeah I hit the 2h over for half unit along w/the original bet (ov 128.5), so was a good play for when I got the line...

only loss so far is the Hofstra gm which stayed under by 2.5 pts, but I played 2h over so got another half unit bk on that loss...

Dayton gm not looking good, but overall going to be a winning night for me

Which is what I like to see! :0074

Thanks Riff! and Musca (hi-jacker!) :toast: