Thurs 1/31 College Hoop Call

[Riff-Raff]

Quick Recap: Kiss your Sister type of day 16-17 (-13 u)..... Unfortunately, I tried to get cute on some Middles which hurt my bottom line, but couldn't pass up on the big spread discrepancy...... Won't lie, I expected a better result from Butler....a few totals were way off..... Oh well, no use crying over spilt milk...

*I think a few people are having problems getting down on early card?.... I have played with 5Dimes for about 20 years and have had very few problems.... Also Sportbet and Betnow are viable outs....... *I can't get too far into it but have a online account with a Bookie that I have played with for years and Nevada residents can fund through books like William Hill (cookie cutter type app) so always have 5 books funded at all times...... Hope this cleared a few things up.... Are you guys that are having problems, with books not posting Overnight lines? I would drop that book now unless it allows larger wagers...

Onward...

Lafayette -1....10 u (Strong)

ETSU/Samford Over 146.....10 u (Strongest Total)... Get it now.

JMU/C o C Under 134....7 u

Lafayette/Appy St Under 169'....9 u

Citadel/Furman Over 164....8 u

Elon +2.....9 u

LA Tech/Florida Atl Under 137'...9 u

Iona/Marist Over 158......10 u (Strong)

Iona -1....10 u

Mercer +7....10 u (Strong)

Monmouth -1.....10 u (Very Strong)

Old Dominian -4'.....10 u

Old Dominian/No Texas Under 127.....7 u

Rider/St Pete's Under 141'....9 u

Tenn Tech +9......10 u

ETSU -3.....9 u (almost 10)

SE Miss St/Belmont Over 154...10 u (Super Strong)

Xavier +2'.....8 u

Xavier/Georgetown Over 152...10 u (Strong)

W Carolina/Chattanooga Under 145'....10 u (Very Strong)

WKY -6....8 u

E Illinois +1....9 u

Arizona +6......9 u

UConn/UCF Under 140....10 u (Strong)

Colorado pk (8 u)

Oregon/Utah Under 136'......(Strong)

UTAH -1.......8 u

Sac St/Idaho St Under 144......8 u

UC Irvine/UCSB Under 133....8 u

*Nothing stands out on the added rotation.

Good Luck to All

 

[Musca]

Folks- Most of the small college "added games" early lines where there is huge line movement are from 5dimes. 5dimes puts out all lines early and will move lines VERY FAST. YOu can move their lines with a 100$ wager... I used to do it all the time. Small college, FCS, womens are all move FAST and with relatively small money.
Most of the extreme of the lines i.e. Campbell +13 last night was only available until the first wager was made then they moved to 11.5 and down from there... It is the 5dimes model. You are not going to catch the best of the lines due to that reason.

AS for the rest of the line moves- Find books that put the other 80% of the lines up the night before as most decent online books do now. If you look at bet percentage websites you can see what the opnening lines are and you can see the where it seems they are moving.
Missouri State vs Valpo the other night- Line opened and initially went UP to 134 so I hit the under.... Went to bed and the next morning it was 131 and on its way down to 129 be game time. SImilar story with Texas Tech vs TCU. That line got up to 134 before it started dropping.


Line movement is inexact- Some of the books i.e. 5D moves lines VERY fast. Other books will move if the sharp outlets move their line i.e. Pinnacle, Olympic or CRIS. But each book does not make their lines... in most cases the houses do not even have someone in house that knows how to make a line. They pay for a service that provides lines. Each house sets a risk threshhold that tells them to move the line if they get this much action... It is a sliding scale based on conference etc. Some books have it set that if a certan player hits a game they move the line. Trust me I used to know Hawkeye's women's plays before he posted them because I could watch the line movements at 5D.

Catching early line moves is the 2nd biggest challenge behind picking winners.


Riff- Love you to death but think it is time to re-evaluate your numbers on SE Louisiana. They are a defense first team and they play SLOW ball. Love your work keep it up...

 

[LordofBalls]

thank you Musca for sharing your insights!

was weird how yday there was such large line movement on almost all of the plays Riff put out, and today very little movement comparitively.

like to hear when you match up w/him on some of these things (and Hawkeye too).

Today Hawkeye and Riff both like the Belmont gm OVER... it hasn't moved off 154...
Arrow and Riff both like the Conn gm UNDER (moved from 140.5 down to 136.5)...

gl today!

 

[Macgruder23]

Utah -8 ?? Is this the right game ? I have -2


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[Riff-Raff]

Utah -8 ?? Is this the right game ? I have -2


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:facepalm: Yes, thanks for pointing it out... Typo... Shit happens at 2 am :0072 Should have been sleeping lol.

 

[Riff-Raff]

Folks- Most of the small college "added games" early lines where there is huge line movement are from 5dimes. 5dimes puts out all lines early and will move lines VERY FAST. YOu can move their lines with a 100$ wager... I used to do it all the time. Small college, FCS, womens are all move FAST and with relatively small money.
Most of the extreme of the lines i.e. Campbell +13 last night was only available until the first wager was made then they moved to 11.5 and down from there... It is the 5dimes model. You are not going to catch the best of the lines due to that reason.

AS for the rest of the line moves- Find books that put the other 80% of the lines up the night before as most decent online books do now. If you look at bet percentage websites you can see what the opnening lines are and you can see the where it seems they are moving.
Missouri State vs Valpo the other night- Line opened and initially went UP to 134 so I hit the under.... Went to bed and the next morning it was 131 and on its way down to 129 be game time. SImilar story with Texas Tech vs TCU. That line got up to 134 before it started dropping.


Line movement is inexact- Some of the books i.e. 5D moves lines VERY fast. Other books will move if the sharp outlets move their line i.e. Pinnacle, Olympic or CRIS. But each book does not make their lines... in most cases the houses do not even have someone in house that knows how to make a line. They pay for a service that provides lines. Each house sets a risk threshhold that tells them to move the line if they get this much action... It is a sliding scale based on conference etc. Some books have it set that if a certan player hits a game they move the line. Trust me I used to know Hawkeye's women's plays before he posted them because I could watch the line movements at 5D.

Catching early line moves is the 2nd biggest challenge behind picking winners.


Riff- Love you to death but think it is time to re-evaluate your numbers on SE Louisiana. They are a defense first team and they play SLOW ball. Love your work keep it up...

THIS

* Great insight Musca.... I'm know your no longer with 5D but you can get higher limits by phone call in.... Although things are changing a bit with Sean being gone. Still you hit the nail on the head. I hardly ever open up Hawks Ladies Threads anymore because, unless you're on top of things, the value is gone almost instantaneous... His Ladies plays are outstanding.

**I realize a lot of people on this board, don't have access to Casino Sportsbooks (hopefully that will change) but what I often find when I go to Reno is that most of Local Books will keep the original lines on many of the added rotation..... Not sure about Vegas, as it's out of my wheel house, but just some food for thought (and fairly large limits with many of the local books)...... Same goes with the Lady's plays (I have made several wagers over the past 2 months on Hawks plays in Reno and Tahoe).... Usually the original number.... While 5D will jump all over the place (Musca talks about).....There are many outs that won't budge off numbers... Just something to think about if your ever in this neck of the woods.

***Good point on SE LA Musca..... Like I have said (ad nauseum) I rarely watch games anymore (unless it's the NCAA Tourn or if I have no money on it) and rely on my power numbers to get me the edge...... In that game (without giving away too much info) The numbers I had were 134.......not a huge number and while SE LA plays solid D, they were still giving 69.3 ppg up to a team that was averaging 70.....(I was especially fond of SH with a 9-2 ats as V and overall 12-8)......What I believe I failed to take into account was SE with relatively strong home court and dictating pace. Live and learn my friend and thanks for the input.... I have already made notes on your rec and will certainly adjust moving forward....... I really appreciate the thoughts and I look forward to hearing more from you when you see something I missing......

Gluck Today All...... *Very Large Wager on the Samford total... Let's bring it home

 

[Riff-Raff]

Spuds69-

Received your message.... Thank you and I appreciate the insight on Nebraska moving forward...... Anything else you hear, let me know so we can use it to our advantage.....

R-R

 

[Riff-Raff]

Add:

My partner (Hawaii Over, Air Force Under last night) is on:

Portland St/Weber St Over 155...10 u (Very Strong) *Looks like I need it as Samford/ETSU on a horrible start

 

[Sportsaholic]

Add:
*Looks like I need it as Samford/ETSU on a horrible start

Games still in reach that's why I love to play overs....thanks for posting....:0008

 

[Macgruder23]

Add:

My partner (Hawaii Over, Air Force Under last night) is on:

Portland St/Weber St Over 155...10 u (Very Strong) *Looks like I need it as Samford/ETSU on a horrible


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[Macgruder23]

I?ve learned this very quickly and wanted to share . If you don?t have the ability to get down within minutes of riff post you are wasting time and energy cause tailing a guy with this kind of action you need to play all the games at as close to the line he is posting . I for one don?t get totals released until 10am , so anything that?s moving more than 2.5 points has lost the value . I think in 3 days there?s been 8 totals that moved a great deal and were unable to play . They are 7-0-1 at 10 units each . That?s 70 units I did not win . Tuesday I lost 86 units : Wed I lost 23 units : tonight I lost count but it?s a big number . The point of this isn?t to bash its to educate . I think that riff truly is a good dude I think intentions are too make everyone money . But if you can?t get down on the lines immediately you will lose games he wins or pushes and that?s where line value comes into play . I?m going to keep tailing but on a much smaller level. I?ve been tailing for a couple weeks and made some money so I?m not mad , I took a shot this week playing every game and missed it happens in gambling . Thanks Riff for what you do .


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[BuckwheatJWN]

I?ve learned this very quickly and wanted to share . If you don?t have the ability to get down within minutes of riff post you are wasting time and energy cause tailing a guy with this kind of action you need to play all the games at as close to the line he is posting . I for one don?t get totals released until 10am , so anything that?s moving more than 2.5 points has lost the value . I think in 3 days there?s been 8 totals that moved a great deal and were unable to play . They are 7-0-1 at 10 units each . That?s 70 units I did not win . Tuesday I lost 86 units : Wed I lost 23 units : tonight I lost count but it?s a big number . The point of this isn?t to bash its to educate . I think that riff truly is a good dude I think intentions are too make everyone money . But if you can?t get down on the lines immediately you will lose games he wins or pushes and that?s where line value comes into play . I?m going to keep tailing but on a much smaller level. I?ve been tailing for a couple weeks and made some money so I?m not mad , I took a shot this week playing every game and missed it happens in gambling . Thanks Riff for what you do .


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I AGREE

 

[Riff-Raff]

I?ve learned this very quickly and wanted to share . If you don?t have the ability to get down within minutes of riff post you are wasting time and energy cause tailing a guy with this kind of action you need to play all the games at as close to the line he is posting . I for one don?t get totals released until 10am , so anything that?s moving more than 2.5 points has lost the value . I think in 3 days there?s been 8 totals that moved a great deal and were unable to play . They are 7-0-1 at 10 units each . That?s 70 units I did not win . Tuesday I lost 86 units : Wed I lost 23 units : tonight I lost count but it?s a big number . The point of this isn?t to bash its to educate . I think that riff truly is a good dude I think intentions are too make everyone money . But if you can?t get down on the lines immediately you will lose games he wins or pushes and that?s where line value comes into play . I?m going to keep tailing but on a much smaller level. I?ve been tailing for a couple weeks and made some money so I?m not mad , I took a shot this week playing every game and missed it happens in gambling . Thanks Riff for what you do .

It's been a tough week...... I personally have lost over 100 units this week, and while my bankroll can afford the hit, it makes it worse knowing people are following and I'm responsible for their fortune or debt....... Today was the gambling gods sending a message that in this racket (like poker) everyone can expect some run bad......I know noone that can consistently win every day.

With that being said, today was a drain and if your watching this stuff you can expect some ulcers along the way... I always check out games periodically on a couple of scoreboard apps, as I'm always watching to find value in a half time line...... Today, with a large card, I found nothing (which is rare), and what made matters worse, is games like Lafayette was down big at half to a lowly Appy St (6-14)...which started the day in the wrong direction...... Samford Total was a crusher as I happened to see the score in the first 5 minutes and it was ugly...... From there it got worse... Iona/Marist came up 6 short, Tenn Tech +9 (loses by 11, W Carolina/Chattanooga Score 200 points, Arizona +6 (goes to OT and loses by 7, Mercer +7 (loses by 9), then I followed my pals play @ O 155 and comes up short at 151.......Sometimes I just have to laugh, go on a long walk and get ready for tomorrow.

This Week: 40-45-1 (-98.2 units on posted plays).....

Major Apologies to anyone that lost on these plays. I would like to tell you that it will get better, but unfortunately in this activity, you can't make any promises......... Sometimes writing it down and calling R-R a jackass can be therapeutic :with stupid. I'm tempted to take a couple of days off and play on paper, however, I'm going to play it out this weekend and see what happens..... Good Luck in whatever you decide.

 

[Macgruder23]

I?ve learned this very quickly and wanted to share . If you don?t have the ability to get down within minutes of riff post you are wasting time and energy cause tailing a guy with this kind of action you need to play all the games at as close to the line he is posting . I for one don?t get totals released until 10am , so anything that?s moving more than 2.5 points has lost the value . I think in 3 days there?s been 8 totals that moved a great deal and were unable to play . They are 7-0-1 at 10 units each . That?s 70 units I did not win . Tuesday I lost 86 units : Wed I lost 23 units : tonight I lost count but it?s a big number . The point of this isn?t to bash its to educate . I think that riff truly is a good dude I think intentions are too make everyone money . But if you can?t get down on the lines immediately you will lose games he wins or pushes and that?s where line value comes into play . I?m going to keep tailing but on a much smaller level. I?ve been tailing for a couple weeks and made some money so I?m not mad , I took a shot this week playing every game and missed it happens in gambling . Thanks Riff for what you do .

It's been a tough week...... I personally have lost over 100 units this week, and while my bankroll can afford the hit, it makes it worse knowing people are following and I'm responsible for their fortune or debt....... Today was the gambling gods sending a message that in this racket (like poker) everyone can expect some run bad......I know noone that can consistently win every day.

With that being said, today was a drain and if your watching this stuff you can expect some ulcers along the way... I always check out games periodically on a couple of scoreboard apps, as I'm always watching to find value in a half time line...... Today, with a large card, I found nothing (which is rare), and what made matters worse, is games like Lafayette was down big at half to a lowly Appy St (6-14)...which started the day in the wrong direction...... Samford Total was a crusher as I happened to see the score in the first 5 minutes and it was ugly...... From there it got worse... Iona/Marist came up 6 short, Tenn Tech +9 (loses by 11, W Carolina/Chattanooga Score 200 points, Arizona +6 (goes to OT and loses by 7, Mercer +7 (loses by 9), then I followed my pals play @ O 155 and comes up short at 151.......Sometimes I just have to laugh, go on a long walk and get ready for tomorrow.

This Week: 40-45-1 (-98.2 units on posted plays).....

Major Apologies to anyone that lost on these plays. I would like to tell you that it will get better, but unfortunately in this activity, you can't make any promises......... Sometimes writing it down and calling R-R a jackass can be therapeutic :with stupid. I'm tempted to take a couple of days off and play on paper, however, I'm going to play it out this weekend and see what happens..... Good Luck in whatever you decide.

I?m reiterating this I?m a grown man and make my own final decision to play or not play . I just think too much value is lost having to wait till 10am . I can go find another book but quite honestly I do this for fun and try and win as much as I lose . Games like Georgetown missing by 1/2 and UConn by 1.5 and you get a push and win . There were the 5 games on Tuesday where totals moved 4 and 5 points before line ever came out , AF last night , think there was 1tonight . I am being sincere when I say don?t lose sleep we?re all grown ups and decide what we play at the end of day . I got lucky and missed the added play as it just missed . I made money last 2 weeks tailing some of your plays I just have to give it back , just posted this for education to anyone that might blindly tail . It?s all good


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[HighFlyingKilla]

Folks- Most of the small college "added games" early lines where there is huge line movement are from 5dimes. 5dimes puts out all lines early and will move lines VERY FAST. YOu can move their lines with a 100$ wager... I used to do it all the time. Small college, FCS, womens are all move FAST and with relatively small money.
Most of the extreme of the lines i.e. Campbell +13 last night was only available until the first wager was made then they moved to 11.5 and down from there... It is the 5dimes model. You are not going to catch the best of the lines due to that reason.

AS for the rest of the line moves- Find books that put the other 80% of the lines up the night before as most decent online books do now. If you look at bet percentage websites you can see what the opnening lines are and you can see the where it seems they are moving.
Missouri State vs Valpo the other night- Line opened and initially went UP to 134 so I hit the under.... Went to bed and the next morning it was 131 and on its way down to 129 be game time. SImilar stor with Texas Tech vs TCU. That line got up to 134 before it started dropping.


Line movement is inexact- Some of the books i.e. 5D moves lines VERY fast. Other books will move if the sharp outlets move their line i.e. Pinnacle, Olympic or CRIS. But each book does not make their lines... in most cases the houses do not even have someone in house that knows how to make a line. They pay for a service that provides lines. Each house sets a risk threshhold that tells them to move the line if they get this much action... It is a sliding scale based on conference etc. Some books have it set that if a certan player hits a game they move the line. Trust me I used to know Hawkeye's women's plays before he posted them because I could watch the line movements at 5D.

Catching early line moves is the 2nd biggest challenge behind picking winners.


Riff- Love you to deat but think it is time to re-evaluate your numbers on SE Louisiana. They are a defense first team and they play SLOW ball. Love your work keep it up...

Heritage had the overnigt lines up for the past 2hrs. I would open an acct with them if you to beat the line moves.

 

[HighFlyingKilla]

I?m reiterating this I?m a grown man and make my own final decision to play or not play . I just think too much value is lost having to wait till 10am . I can go find another book but quite honestly I do this for fun and try and win as much as I lose . Games like Georgetown missing by 1/2 and UConn by 1.5 and you get a push and win . There were the 5 games on Tuesday where totals moved 4 and 5 points before line ever came out , AF last night , think there was 1tonight . I am being sincere when I say don?t lose sleep we?re all grown ups and decide what we play at the end of day . I got lucky and missed the added play as it just missed . I made money last 2 weeks tailing some of your plays I just have to give it back , just posted this for education to anyone that might blindly tail . It?s all good


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Make an open teaser or buy pts in parlay if its 4 or 5 pts. Buy a half point or 1 point if comforts you. I always buy the half but I only pay -117 juice.

 

[BuckwheatJWN]

I agree with MacGruder. Unfortunately , I just started tailing you recently (I do have a good track record of being a cooler. LOL)........Fortunately, I don't play much and don't play all your picks. Thanks for the effort, but I think I'll just watch for awhile.

 

[HighFlyingKilla]

I agree with MacGruder. Unfortunately , I just started tailing you recently (I do have a good track record of being a cooler. LOL)........Fortunately, I don't play much and don't play all your picks. Thanks for the effort, but I think I'll just watch for awhile.

i started 3 weeks ago making 10 to 30 bets. If Riff starts off hot i keep wagers the same. If its slow start and strong plays start out losing.
I go double up on the reamaining strong plays. If you break down all his strong plays for the season. You would see the worst he does is 500 on a bad night