Just some comments on the games.
I have a few plays in but often doing this helps myself with the uncertainty, so take the world with a grain of salt and spend your time more wisely in the future.
doin' chronillogical
est
12:35 braves(Newcomb)@Reds(Bailey)
--I liked Bailey a bunch about 5 years ago but he has lost what he had then, it seems; dogshit spring and other prognosticators comments forced me to give him a really crappy rating to start the season...he's improved on that but I still have him rated a few notches below league average...he still might find himself but I want no piece, though he might stretch it for even 7 innings to give their grim BP a break
--1st round pick lefty Sean Newcomb is only 24 and has the much higher upside--still trying to find himself, in the bigs--but has been very inconsistent outside of his great 6 innings at Coors; I have him rated a couple notches above league average but he has been very wild which has meant higher pitch counts and at least 3 innings from the BP for all 4 of his outtings
--Reds were crap vs lefties 2 years ago, in '16, and again last year (9-29 vs L) with a lower OPS vs L, than vs R, in each of those seasons...I notice them at OPS vs L at a solid .808 this year (they're .595 vs R, about 5x as many AB's) so I took a look at who they faced to go 1-2 vs L so far in '18...an early 6-5 loss at home to Gio Gonzalez and Nats, a 5-2 loss @Pit vs Brault and a 10-4 win @Brews Brent Suter, the latter of which must have provided the inflated number, barring roughing up whatever lefty relievers they may have
--ump C.B.Bucknor is historically a very good over-ump, very inconsistent, and least likely to be named ump of the year, imo
--mild wind in from left/far left; tiny chance of rain
With a small pitching edge, partly due to the bullpen, and a larger offensive edge, I goofed around with a system number to give me braves 62%, which is the only way I could go but braves opener of -126 is now -135 (pinnacle) which leaves me a 57.5% needed for 'break-even-value' type considerations. I feel very fortunate to have scored the braves -104 Wednesday--and even more fortunate that I didn't add a last-minute 1st 5 addition (4 bottom 5 to give Reds 4-3 lead)--and I am likely to pass here.
12:35 tigers(Fulmer)@Pirates(Nova)
--Fulmer has been tolerable, tigers pen has been better past few weeks while Pirates has declined, which is something that can be said about most aspects about both teams--both moving towards some normalization--Pit wasn't as good as they started while Det not quite as bad
--e.g. last 7 days (likely pre-doubleheader Wed (espn)), tigers scored 41 over 6 games, including hitting 9 HR, after only hitting 6 their first 14 games
--Ivan Nova is a crapshoot at best, imo; he can keep the walks down but often has trouble keeping the ball in the park
--mild wind blowing out to center expected with no rain
--ump Rob Drake expected, who I've got as even
--note the double-header yesterday, a couple of questionable BP's that have been getting a workout AND the daytime start, which often means key sticks getting the day off, at least some older dudes, which hopefully won't include Miguel
I like the over 8 at +104. I also think the tigers are worth a play at +129.
(I didn't fool around with system numbers (for a %) as this looks like a real high variance game meaning a serious 'error-rate' or whatever; I just think the tigers have found some mild mojo and I see this as a coin-toss, if not mild det probability)
I might add some over 8 but maybe not.
I did grab some action, splitting my bet equally with tigers +129 and tigers ov3.5 at -109.
This is taking time. Not going to rush. Need to chill.
Gonna spark a bowl, change the tunes and continue within.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sEJCz3WAgxQ" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I have a few plays in but often doing this helps myself with the uncertainty, so take the world with a grain of salt and spend your time more wisely in the future.
doin' chronillogical
est
12:35 braves(Newcomb)@Reds(Bailey)
--I liked Bailey a bunch about 5 years ago but he has lost what he had then, it seems; dogshit spring and other prognosticators comments forced me to give him a really crappy rating to start the season...he's improved on that but I still have him rated a few notches below league average...he still might find himself but I want no piece, though he might stretch it for even 7 innings to give their grim BP a break
--1st round pick lefty Sean Newcomb is only 24 and has the much higher upside--still trying to find himself, in the bigs--but has been very inconsistent outside of his great 6 innings at Coors; I have him rated a couple notches above league average but he has been very wild which has meant higher pitch counts and at least 3 innings from the BP for all 4 of his outtings
--Reds were crap vs lefties 2 years ago, in '16, and again last year (9-29 vs L) with a lower OPS vs L, than vs R, in each of those seasons...I notice them at OPS vs L at a solid .808 this year (they're .595 vs R, about 5x as many AB's) so I took a look at who they faced to go 1-2 vs L so far in '18...an early 6-5 loss at home to Gio Gonzalez and Nats, a 5-2 loss @Pit vs Brault and a 10-4 win @Brews Brent Suter, the latter of which must have provided the inflated number, barring roughing up whatever lefty relievers they may have
--ump C.B.Bucknor is historically a very good over-ump, very inconsistent, and least likely to be named ump of the year, imo
--mild wind in from left/far left; tiny chance of rain
With a small pitching edge, partly due to the bullpen, and a larger offensive edge, I goofed around with a system number to give me braves 62%, which is the only way I could go but braves opener of -126 is now -135 (pinnacle) which leaves me a 57.5% needed for 'break-even-value' type considerations. I feel very fortunate to have scored the braves -104 Wednesday--and even more fortunate that I didn't add a last-minute 1st 5 addition (4 bottom 5 to give Reds 4-3 lead)--and I am likely to pass here.
12:35 tigers(Fulmer)@Pirates(Nova)
--Fulmer has been tolerable, tigers pen has been better past few weeks while Pirates has declined, which is something that can be said about most aspects about both teams--both moving towards some normalization--Pit wasn't as good as they started while Det not quite as bad
--e.g. last 7 days (likely pre-doubleheader Wed (espn)), tigers scored 41 over 6 games, including hitting 9 HR, after only hitting 6 their first 14 games
--Ivan Nova is a crapshoot at best, imo; he can keep the walks down but often has trouble keeping the ball in the park
--mild wind blowing out to center expected with no rain
--ump Rob Drake expected, who I've got as even
--note the double-header yesterday, a couple of questionable BP's that have been getting a workout AND the daytime start, which often means key sticks getting the day off, at least some older dudes, which hopefully won't include Miguel
I like the over 8 at +104. I also think the tigers are worth a play at +129.
(I didn't fool around with system numbers (for a %) as this looks like a real high variance game meaning a serious 'error-rate' or whatever; I just think the tigers have found some mild mojo and I see this as a coin-toss, if not mild det probability)
I might add some over 8 but maybe not.
I did grab some action, splitting my bet equally with tigers +129 and tigers ov3.5 at -109.
This is taking time. Not going to rush. Need to chill.
Gonna spark a bowl, change the tunes and continue within.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sEJCz3WAgxQ" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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