Thurs Hoops

[layinwood]

I haven't posted any plays in the NBA this year but I do like to play on or against the Mavs in certain spots and tonight I like them. I always hate when a line looks like this one but I can't resist. The Mavs do very well vs the Magic. I think they've only loss to them once going back thru the 07 season and even that one loss was very close. You can go back further than that but I think that's the only relevant time to go back to.

The Mavs struggle with one thing and it's dominant point guards. IMO Nelson isn't a dominant point guard. The other thing that benefits the Mavs is that they're a jump shooting team. Normally this is a negative but vs the Magic it's a positive because it takes Howards shot blocking out of the game. I don't know how much it will help but Howard himself said that Haywood one of the guys in the league that gives him problems.(not a big deal to me but it can only help).

The last reason I think the Mavs do well vs Orlando is because Orlando just doesn't have anyone that can play Dirk. Lewis doesn't do a good job at all and he's not a hard guard for Dirk. Howard can cover Dirk on the outside and they really have nobody else that gives him any problems. I think this helps break the Orl D down and has helped the Mavs have success.

Mavs +2 5units(very big play for me)

GLTA

 

[atmswim]

nice write up.

I think the only thing you left off was that Orlando is coming off 3 days of rest and Dallas is coming home from an OT win. Not sure if this is a factor you considered.

Good Luck

 

[layinwood]

Scott, I'm not too worried about it. The Mavs didn't play hard last night until the 4th qtr. Add to that their 4-1 ats their last 5 times with 0 days rest and I'm good. I'm not big on trends but IMO that shows the Mavs aren't hurt by the back to back(even though they're the oldest team in the NBA). My biggest reason for this is because the Mavs play very well vs the Magic and the Mavs HAVE TO WIN. They're only a couple of losses away from opening on the road in the playoffs because the west is so tight. I also like the Mavs vs good teams. They seem to play up or down to their competition.

Mavs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600

Magic are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

 

[layinwood]

Nice call :mj07:

0-1 -5.5 units

 

[atmswim]

Sorry about the loss.

If it makes you feel any better I tailed you on this bet. Although it wasn't a very big bet.

 

[layinwood]

Sorry Scott, they just didn't show up. They've gotten to comfortable with trailing teams and then coming back. At some point they have to stop doing that and playing from the first jump ball.