07:35 PM NHL [7] TOTAL o5.5 +105 (Arizona Coyotes vrs Montreal Canadiens)
07:35 PM NHL [10] TOTAL u5-110 (Washington Capitals vrs Florida Panthers)
07:35 PM NHL [12] Tampa Bay Lightning -180
08:05 PM NHL [14] Minnesota Wild -200
09:05 PM NHL [20] Calgary Flames -144
10:15 PM CFB [1308] 1H Boise State -4-105
08:05 PM MLB [905] Chicago Cubs -160 ( J Lester - L / K Maeda - R )
07:05 PM NHL [2] Philadelphia Flyers -125
07:05 PM NHL [6] Boston Bruins -162
1 unit bet pays 141 ....betdsi line....came close again with last night's parlay!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
EDMONTON +109 over St. Louis
OT included. Outside of a 6-2 loss to the Sabres in which they outshot Buffalo, 33-24, Edmonton has won its other three games while scoring 15 goals in the process. We all know how dangerous the Oilers are offensively, which figures to bode well here against a team that is 3-0-1 and that has a lot of folks fooled.
With seven out of a possible eight points thus far, everything seems peachy with the Blue Notes but it?s not. No team in the NHL has given up more high danger scoring chances (HDCA%) than St. Louis. The Blue Notes have yet to give up a PP goal, which is something that will not last much longer. Against the Rangers on Saturday night back in St. Louis, the Blues were outshot 35-18 and out-chanced by a 3-1 margin but won 3-2. In Vancouver this past Tuesday, the Blue Notes managed just 24 shots on net and a mere six high quality scoring chances. Give these quality point producers on Edmonton high quality chances and some pucks are bound to go in. St. Louis looks good on paper because of its 3-0-1 record but we?re instant sellers before regression sets in. St. Louis is all smoke and mirrors.
Anaheim vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The Anaheim Ducks knew it would be no walk in the park to begin their season, as the schedule opened with a five-game road trip. The good news is this trip finally ends with a stop in Philadelphia on Thursday but the bad news is that the Ducks are still looking for their first win (0-3-1). Sami Vatanen gave Anaheim its first lead of the season on Tuesday with a power-play goal for his 100th career point but the team never scored again in a 2-1 loss. "We just can't put the puck in the net," Vatanen said. "When we open the ketchup bottle, it will start to go in."
Meanwhile, Philadelphia (1-1-1) has scored 3.7 GPG but that impressive number is not good enough when the club has yielded 4.3 GPG, to rank 28th in the league. Michal Neuvirth allowed four goals on 16 shots to earn an early exit Tuesday in a 7-4 setback in Chicago (Philly lost 4-3 in OT at Arizona last Saturday night). Like Anaheim, Philadelphia has opened on the road but after a three-game trip, returns for its home opener. It should be an emotional night, as the Flyers play their first-ever season opener at Wells Fargo Center without their late founder, Ed Snider, who died in April after a long battle with bladder cancer. A banner will be raised and a video tribute played before the game.
More good news comes Philly?s way with the return of Brayden Schenn, who finished serving his three-game suspension for his hit on Washington's T.J. Oshie in the playoffs. "It's never fun to be out of the lineup. You always want to be out there, trying to help your team," said Schenn. He was the Flyers' second-leading scorer with 26 goals last season. The Ducks will be playing their fifth consecutive road game to start the year and many of their problems have self-inflicted. Anaheim committed seven penalties, including five in the second period, to drop their fourth straight game on Tuesday. "We talked about it from the start of the season, that discipline was going to have to be a focal point for our group," Ducks coach Randy Carlyle said, according to the Orange County Register. "And if we weren't going to be more disciplined -- and our history has been that we've been one of the most penalized or a majority of this group has been one of the most penalized teams minor-wise in the league -- you're not going to be a quality team, a playoff team if you're going to continue to do that."
No reason to expect Anaheim?s fortunes to change here. Philly wins one for Ed Snider.
Colorado vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning have been living on the edge, rallying from two goals down to defeat Detroit and New Jersey, before captain Steven Stamkos scored with 5.5 seconds left in regulation Tuesday and eventually beating Florida 4-3 in the shootout. Colorado boasts four power-play goals in the first three games but its penalty killers have struggled mightily, allowing two tallies in each contest in the team's 2-1-0 start.
Colorado: The Avalanche suffered their first loss of the season in Washington on Tuesday in a 3-0, allowing a pair of power play goals for the third consecutive game. In 14 penalty kills this season, Colorado has killed off just eight and sit in 29th place in the league rankings in that department. Center Nathan MacKinnon tops the team with four points (one goal, three assists) and four players own three points apiece, including defensemen Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie. Goalie Semyon Varlamov has yielded eight goals on 68 shots in his first two starts (4.00 GAA and .882 save percentage) and likely will be back in net Thursday.
Tampa Bay: An undefeated Tampa Bay team will be looking to close out a perfect four-game homestand to start the season in tonight?s contest with Colorado. LW Alex Killorn is off to the best start of his career with a goal in each of the first three games to go along with one assist to share the team lead in points with Stamkos (two goals) and Jonathan Drouin (one). Killorn has opened the season playing alongside center Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov with excellent results so far.
The pick: Colorado?s Varlamov owns an 8-3-2 career record (including two shutouts) and a .924 save percentage against the Lightning but his .882 save percentage to open the season should be a concern, as is Colorado?s poor penalty-killing unit. His opposite number, Ben Bishop, has not played well either, with a 3.40 GAA and an .889 save percentage. However, the Lightning have just found a way to win to open the season (see above) and the Avalanche become the Lightning?s latest ?victim.?
Toronto +166 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Maple Leafs are a really interesting team this year. They have looked both dynamic and vulnerable but their stock took a huge hit last after they blew a 4-0 lead against the Jets in Winnipeg. That third period meltdown is part of the growing pains this Toronto coaching staff must deal with and address with this young squad.
Mike Babcock is not going to scold them or freak out about a loss like the one the Leafs suffered last night. He?ll use it as a learning curve and focus on all the great things they did. He?ll also make sure the mistakes will be addressed in a positive way. At the end of the day, Toronto has still picked up points in every game and could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-0-2. What?s so appealing about the Leafs taking back a price like this is that they can score goals in bunches and they are only going to improve as the season wears on.
After a 3-2 loss to open the year against the Blues, Minnesota defeated both Winnipeg and Los Angeles to run its record to 2-1. The 6-3 victory over L.A. looks convincing but it wasn?t. Frankly, none of the Wild victories or losses look very good so let?s have a closer look. The Wild have 12 goals on a mere 78 shots on net. They have the highest shooting percentage after three games, which will not continue. Masked in their 2-1 record is that their goaltending duo of Devan Dubnyk and Darcy Kuemper have the lowest save percentage in the NHL. In nine periods of hockey, Minnesota has looked terribly flawed in seven of them. This is a beatable team on its best day and in no way should they be priced in this range so early in the year when they have proven nothing. Toronto goes from a -105 last night in Winnipeg to this price tonight in Minnesota? That?s nuts. Huge overlay.
GREEN BAY -7? over Chicago
Jay Cutler?s replacement, Brian Hoyer is the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for over 300 yards in four straight games and nobody is looking for running back Jeremy Langford since Jordan Howard replaced the injured starter. Even with the success of Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard, the Bears are never quite good enough and occasionally nowhere near good enough to win a game. The second year of HC John Fox and first year of OC Dowell Loggins is not going well .
The Bears are now 1-5. They have back-to-back losses to Indy and Jacksonville, which is not easy to do. They also lost to the Texans in Week 1, 23-14. The NFC North drew the AFC South this year, which is by far the worst division in the NFL. To go 0-3 against the Jags, Colts and Texans doesn?t exactly get a team all jacked up to continue. Now the Bears will travel on short rest to play a team that is taking a lot of heat in the media after being schooled by Dallas last Sunday.
First in line for the media and public bashing of Green Bay is QB Aaron Rodgers. We?ve all read and heard phrases like ?he?s finished? or ?he?s so overrated?. Well, aside from the host having a big advantage in these Thursday nighters, nobody is better with a chip on their shoulder than Rodgers. Furthermore, losing to a REALLY good Dallas team is nothing to hang one?s head over. Green Bay?s two losses were to Minnesota and Dallas, teams with a combined 10-1 record and they lost to the Vikes by just three. Green Bay has played a much tougher schedule than the Bears.
The 7? points may seem appealing in a divisional game, especially when you consider that the entire country watched the Packers get taken down easily by Dallas in Sunday?s late afternoon featured game. However, we?re more interested in what Green Bay is capable of against a weak team than we are about last week. We?re also more interested in Chicago?s weak schedule, which speaks volumes. By their own standards, all of them had well-above average days against a Bears defense that the overall season stats claim is league average. They?re not. Don't get fooled into thinking that Chicago is better off with Hoyer or that they?re ready to compete on a short week with a steamed up Aaron Rodgers with something to prove. This Bears? bunch is more likely to lose a bunch in a row than have things turn for the better in this environment. Aaron Rodgers, like he?s done so many times in the past, is very likely to put a muzzle on the naysayers for at least one more week and the Packers are likely to steamroll this long time rival.
Boise State -7
So why is this line so high? That?s the first question I asked myself when I saw Boise State installed as a .7.5 favorite on Sunday evening. As soon as I saw that number, there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that the ticket count would clearly favor BYU as what appears to be a very generously priced underdog.
That was a very easy conclusion to arrive at, and it?s playing out that way with the Cougars getting about 60% of the ticket volume based on the info I?m receiving.
Believe me, this philosophy doesn?t automatically translate into winning wagers, but when the ?public? is going to like the underdog, and it?s usually not difficult to discern when that?s going to be the case, I will generally at least start looking at the favorite. Not always, and in fact there?s a game on Saturday where I will be on what I anticipate to be a somewhat public dog. But by and large, really popular dogs are a signal for me to begin investigating the other side.
Here?s what I came up with on this game. The power ratings, for the most part, would make this game shorter than -7. The stats, at least the ones I tend to give the most weight to, would also suggest the line should be a shade lower. BYU is only 4-3, but to suggest they?ve accomplished that mark against a tougher schedule than what the unbeaten Broncos have had to face qualifies as a massive understatement.
It?s that scheduling, however, that began to guide me down the Boise State path to at least some extent. BYU has simply not had a break at any point as far as that goes. It has been just one tough opponent after another with no bye week, and while the Cougars have done a nice job overall, at some point it seems almost inevitable they have to start wearing down. That?s even with the knowledge this Cougar roster is loaded with older guys who from that standpoint might have a bit of a physical advantage over younger opponents.
Boise State, meanwhile, has rolled to six straight wins. But aside from the victory over Washington State, they sure haven?t beaten anyone of note. However, I do think it?s fair to offer that the Broncos could well be the much fresher team on Thursday. They just haven?t been taxed physically to nearly the extent BYU has, and that could show on the blue turf in this one.
I?ll also suggest this is probably a bigger game for Boise State than it is for the Cougars. BYU is not in the playoff picture. They?re going to be in the Poinsettia Bowl yet again come December. The coaching staff is doing a great job keeping this team interested each week to be sure. But there?s much more on the line for the Broncos here.
Boise State has no chance to get to the playoffs, even if they run the table. That is just not going to happen. But with a win here, this team has a real chance to get to the Cotton Bowl, and that makes this particular matchup enormous for the Broncos. They have a clear path to a perfect regular season with a win on Thursday night. Obviously, they could suffer an upset somewhere along the line, but at best that?s unlikely. So win this game, win the MWC title game and get set to enjoy the New Year?s holiday in Dallas.
The previous two paragraphs are the keys for me in this game. I think there?s more on the line for the home team, and I might as well toss in the revenge factor from last season. Couple that with the love being shown from the masses for the underdog, and there?s a reasonable case to be made for Boise State as the choice in this game.
Saturday NCAA?
For a program like Middle Tennessee State to compete on the road when stepping up in class requires an element of surprise. The Blue Raiders like to speed the tempo, which is the wrong way against better competition, so they need to bring their best, and hope to catch the other side flat. That is not the setting I see when they venture over to Columbia on Saturday, and that puts #394 Missouri (4:00 Eastern, note the time change) into pocket, with -6.5 available across the board this morning (-7 is fine). The Tigers are bigger, stronger, faster and deeper, and this particular week is not one in which MTS is set very well to overcome that.
First note that talent gap for when someone takes the Blue Raiders seriously ? an earlier trip into SEC country against pedestrian Vanderbilt saw Rick Stockstill?s team get literally run over 47-24. Vandy hasn?t scored more than 24 points in regulation in any other game, and the 231 rushing yards are by far a season high. Yet in that game the Blue Raiders were all out to pull the upset, only coming in off of Alabama A&M, and with non-conference lightweight Bowling Green on deck. The issue was that the Commodores also wanted it, and took them seriously.
This week it is much different for Stockstill and his players. MTS comes in drained off of a bitter double-overtime loss in that CUSA showdown vs. Western Kentucky, a major revenge affair for the Blue Raiders on their homecoming night. I?ll let the HC take it from there - "Players hurt, and as a coach you hurt because you lost but you also hurt because you see how much it hurts your players. The investment that they put into that game and then to not have the success they worked so hard to achieve makes it tough. But you have to man up, be a man and move forward."
And as for having to play a non-conference road game this late in the schedule he offers more - "You played three in a row right there with LA Tech, North Texas and WKU, and you kind of get in a conference flow. You can't always draw it up how you want it or how you like it, but I've always like playing nonconference games early. That's just the way the schedule falls this year."
The defense is overmatched in a major way here, not having the leverage up front nor the speed in the secondary to counter the Missouri talent, and note that the Tigers will be attacking multiple ways, not just with the passing of Drew Lock, but now also the running of Zander Davis, both coming from the QB position. Meanwhile one of the MTS weaknesses is depth at WR, losing projected starters Jocquez Bruce and Terry Pettis back in August, and that will show here against an aggressive defense that has already come up with 10 interceptions.
The markets aren?t asking us for anything special here ? Missouri does not have to play a great game to win by 7 points. But with the talent gap, and the freshness and focus edge, the Tigers should be able to pull away into double figures, especially with a fast tempo from the underdog opening up opportunities for the superior players to take control.
07:35 PM NHL [10] TOTAL u5-110 (Washington Capitals vrs Florida Panthers)
07:35 PM NHL [12] Tampa Bay Lightning -180
08:05 PM NHL [14] Minnesota Wild -200
09:05 PM NHL [20] Calgary Flames -144
10:15 PM CFB [1308] 1H Boise State -4-105
08:05 PM MLB [905] Chicago Cubs -160 ( J Lester - L / K Maeda - R )
07:05 PM NHL [2] Philadelphia Flyers -125
07:05 PM NHL [6] Boston Bruins -162
1 unit bet pays 141 ....betdsi line....came close again with last night's parlay!
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
EDMONTON +109 over St. Louis
OT included. Outside of a 6-2 loss to the Sabres in which they outshot Buffalo, 33-24, Edmonton has won its other three games while scoring 15 goals in the process. We all know how dangerous the Oilers are offensively, which figures to bode well here against a team that is 3-0-1 and that has a lot of folks fooled.
With seven out of a possible eight points thus far, everything seems peachy with the Blue Notes but it?s not. No team in the NHL has given up more high danger scoring chances (HDCA%) than St. Louis. The Blue Notes have yet to give up a PP goal, which is something that will not last much longer. Against the Rangers on Saturday night back in St. Louis, the Blues were outshot 35-18 and out-chanced by a 3-1 margin but won 3-2. In Vancouver this past Tuesday, the Blue Notes managed just 24 shots on net and a mere six high quality scoring chances. Give these quality point producers on Edmonton high quality chances and some pucks are bound to go in. St. Louis looks good on paper because of its 3-0-1 record but we?re instant sellers before regression sets in. St. Louis is all smoke and mirrors.
Anaheim vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
The Anaheim Ducks knew it would be no walk in the park to begin their season, as the schedule opened with a five-game road trip. The good news is this trip finally ends with a stop in Philadelphia on Thursday but the bad news is that the Ducks are still looking for their first win (0-3-1). Sami Vatanen gave Anaheim its first lead of the season on Tuesday with a power-play goal for his 100th career point but the team never scored again in a 2-1 loss. "We just can't put the puck in the net," Vatanen said. "When we open the ketchup bottle, it will start to go in."
Meanwhile, Philadelphia (1-1-1) has scored 3.7 GPG but that impressive number is not good enough when the club has yielded 4.3 GPG, to rank 28th in the league. Michal Neuvirth allowed four goals on 16 shots to earn an early exit Tuesday in a 7-4 setback in Chicago (Philly lost 4-3 in OT at Arizona last Saturday night). Like Anaheim, Philadelphia has opened on the road but after a three-game trip, returns for its home opener. It should be an emotional night, as the Flyers play their first-ever season opener at Wells Fargo Center without their late founder, Ed Snider, who died in April after a long battle with bladder cancer. A banner will be raised and a video tribute played before the game.
More good news comes Philly?s way with the return of Brayden Schenn, who finished serving his three-game suspension for his hit on Washington's T.J. Oshie in the playoffs. "It's never fun to be out of the lineup. You always want to be out there, trying to help your team," said Schenn. He was the Flyers' second-leading scorer with 26 goals last season. The Ducks will be playing their fifth consecutive road game to start the year and many of their problems have self-inflicted. Anaheim committed seven penalties, including five in the second period, to drop their fourth straight game on Tuesday. "We talked about it from the start of the season, that discipline was going to have to be a focal point for our group," Ducks coach Randy Carlyle said, according to the Orange County Register. "And if we weren't going to be more disciplined -- and our history has been that we've been one of the most penalized or a majority of this group has been one of the most penalized teams minor-wise in the league -- you're not going to be a quality team, a playoff team if you're going to continue to do that."
No reason to expect Anaheim?s fortunes to change here. Philly wins one for Ed Snider.
Colorado vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Lightning have been living on the edge, rallying from two goals down to defeat Detroit and New Jersey, before captain Steven Stamkos scored with 5.5 seconds left in regulation Tuesday and eventually beating Florida 4-3 in the shootout. Colorado boasts four power-play goals in the first three games but its penalty killers have struggled mightily, allowing two tallies in each contest in the team's 2-1-0 start.
Colorado: The Avalanche suffered their first loss of the season in Washington on Tuesday in a 3-0, allowing a pair of power play goals for the third consecutive game. In 14 penalty kills this season, Colorado has killed off just eight and sit in 29th place in the league rankings in that department. Center Nathan MacKinnon tops the team with four points (one goal, three assists) and four players own three points apiece, including defensemen Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie. Goalie Semyon Varlamov has yielded eight goals on 68 shots in his first two starts (4.00 GAA and .882 save percentage) and likely will be back in net Thursday.
Tampa Bay: An undefeated Tampa Bay team will be looking to close out a perfect four-game homestand to start the season in tonight?s contest with Colorado. LW Alex Killorn is off to the best start of his career with a goal in each of the first three games to go along with one assist to share the team lead in points with Stamkos (two goals) and Jonathan Drouin (one). Killorn has opened the season playing alongside center Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov with excellent results so far.
The pick: Colorado?s Varlamov owns an 8-3-2 career record (including two shutouts) and a .924 save percentage against the Lightning but his .882 save percentage to open the season should be a concern, as is Colorado?s poor penalty-killing unit. His opposite number, Ben Bishop, has not played well either, with a 3.40 GAA and an .889 save percentage. However, the Lightning have just found a way to win to open the season (see above) and the Avalanche become the Lightning?s latest ?victim.?
Toronto +166 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Maple Leafs are a really interesting team this year. They have looked both dynamic and vulnerable but their stock took a huge hit last after they blew a 4-0 lead against the Jets in Winnipeg. That third period meltdown is part of the growing pains this Toronto coaching staff must deal with and address with this young squad.
Mike Babcock is not going to scold them or freak out about a loss like the one the Leafs suffered last night. He?ll use it as a learning curve and focus on all the great things they did. He?ll also make sure the mistakes will be addressed in a positive way. At the end of the day, Toronto has still picked up points in every game and could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-0-2. What?s so appealing about the Leafs taking back a price like this is that they can score goals in bunches and they are only going to improve as the season wears on.
After a 3-2 loss to open the year against the Blues, Minnesota defeated both Winnipeg and Los Angeles to run its record to 2-1. The 6-3 victory over L.A. looks convincing but it wasn?t. Frankly, none of the Wild victories or losses look very good so let?s have a closer look. The Wild have 12 goals on a mere 78 shots on net. They have the highest shooting percentage after three games, which will not continue. Masked in their 2-1 record is that their goaltending duo of Devan Dubnyk and Darcy Kuemper have the lowest save percentage in the NHL. In nine periods of hockey, Minnesota has looked terribly flawed in seven of them. This is a beatable team on its best day and in no way should they be priced in this range so early in the year when they have proven nothing. Toronto goes from a -105 last night in Winnipeg to this price tonight in Minnesota? That?s nuts. Huge overlay.
GREEN BAY -7? over Chicago
Jay Cutler?s replacement, Brian Hoyer is the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for over 300 yards in four straight games and nobody is looking for running back Jeremy Langford since Jordan Howard replaced the injured starter. Even with the success of Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard, the Bears are never quite good enough and occasionally nowhere near good enough to win a game. The second year of HC John Fox and first year of OC Dowell Loggins is not going well .
The Bears are now 1-5. They have back-to-back losses to Indy and Jacksonville, which is not easy to do. They also lost to the Texans in Week 1, 23-14. The NFC North drew the AFC South this year, which is by far the worst division in the NFL. To go 0-3 against the Jags, Colts and Texans doesn?t exactly get a team all jacked up to continue. Now the Bears will travel on short rest to play a team that is taking a lot of heat in the media after being schooled by Dallas last Sunday.
First in line for the media and public bashing of Green Bay is QB Aaron Rodgers. We?ve all read and heard phrases like ?he?s finished? or ?he?s so overrated?. Well, aside from the host having a big advantage in these Thursday nighters, nobody is better with a chip on their shoulder than Rodgers. Furthermore, losing to a REALLY good Dallas team is nothing to hang one?s head over. Green Bay?s two losses were to Minnesota and Dallas, teams with a combined 10-1 record and they lost to the Vikes by just three. Green Bay has played a much tougher schedule than the Bears.
The 7? points may seem appealing in a divisional game, especially when you consider that the entire country watched the Packers get taken down easily by Dallas in Sunday?s late afternoon featured game. However, we?re more interested in what Green Bay is capable of against a weak team than we are about last week. We?re also more interested in Chicago?s weak schedule, which speaks volumes. By their own standards, all of them had well-above average days against a Bears defense that the overall season stats claim is league average. They?re not. Don't get fooled into thinking that Chicago is better off with Hoyer or that they?re ready to compete on a short week with a steamed up Aaron Rodgers with something to prove. This Bears? bunch is more likely to lose a bunch in a row than have things turn for the better in this environment. Aaron Rodgers, like he?s done so many times in the past, is very likely to put a muzzle on the naysayers for at least one more week and the Packers are likely to steamroll this long time rival.
Boise State -7
So why is this line so high? That?s the first question I asked myself when I saw Boise State installed as a .7.5 favorite on Sunday evening. As soon as I saw that number, there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that the ticket count would clearly favor BYU as what appears to be a very generously priced underdog.
That was a very easy conclusion to arrive at, and it?s playing out that way with the Cougars getting about 60% of the ticket volume based on the info I?m receiving.
Believe me, this philosophy doesn?t automatically translate into winning wagers, but when the ?public? is going to like the underdog, and it?s usually not difficult to discern when that?s going to be the case, I will generally at least start looking at the favorite. Not always, and in fact there?s a game on Saturday where I will be on what I anticipate to be a somewhat public dog. But by and large, really popular dogs are a signal for me to begin investigating the other side.
Here?s what I came up with on this game. The power ratings, for the most part, would make this game shorter than -7. The stats, at least the ones I tend to give the most weight to, would also suggest the line should be a shade lower. BYU is only 4-3, but to suggest they?ve accomplished that mark against a tougher schedule than what the unbeaten Broncos have had to face qualifies as a massive understatement.
It?s that scheduling, however, that began to guide me down the Boise State path to at least some extent. BYU has simply not had a break at any point as far as that goes. It has been just one tough opponent after another with no bye week, and while the Cougars have done a nice job overall, at some point it seems almost inevitable they have to start wearing down. That?s even with the knowledge this Cougar roster is loaded with older guys who from that standpoint might have a bit of a physical advantage over younger opponents.
Boise State, meanwhile, has rolled to six straight wins. But aside from the victory over Washington State, they sure haven?t beaten anyone of note. However, I do think it?s fair to offer that the Broncos could well be the much fresher team on Thursday. They just haven?t been taxed physically to nearly the extent BYU has, and that could show on the blue turf in this one.
I?ll also suggest this is probably a bigger game for Boise State than it is for the Cougars. BYU is not in the playoff picture. They?re going to be in the Poinsettia Bowl yet again come December. The coaching staff is doing a great job keeping this team interested each week to be sure. But there?s much more on the line for the Broncos here.
Boise State has no chance to get to the playoffs, even if they run the table. That is just not going to happen. But with a win here, this team has a real chance to get to the Cotton Bowl, and that makes this particular matchup enormous for the Broncos. They have a clear path to a perfect regular season with a win on Thursday night. Obviously, they could suffer an upset somewhere along the line, but at best that?s unlikely. So win this game, win the MWC title game and get set to enjoy the New Year?s holiday in Dallas.
The previous two paragraphs are the keys for me in this game. I think there?s more on the line for the home team, and I might as well toss in the revenge factor from last season. Couple that with the love being shown from the masses for the underdog, and there?s a reasonable case to be made for Boise State as the choice in this game.
Saturday NCAA?
For a program like Middle Tennessee State to compete on the road when stepping up in class requires an element of surprise. The Blue Raiders like to speed the tempo, which is the wrong way against better competition, so they need to bring their best, and hope to catch the other side flat. That is not the setting I see when they venture over to Columbia on Saturday, and that puts #394 Missouri (4:00 Eastern, note the time change) into pocket, with -6.5 available across the board this morning (-7 is fine). The Tigers are bigger, stronger, faster and deeper, and this particular week is not one in which MTS is set very well to overcome that.
First note that talent gap for when someone takes the Blue Raiders seriously ? an earlier trip into SEC country against pedestrian Vanderbilt saw Rick Stockstill?s team get literally run over 47-24. Vandy hasn?t scored more than 24 points in regulation in any other game, and the 231 rushing yards are by far a season high. Yet in that game the Blue Raiders were all out to pull the upset, only coming in off of Alabama A&M, and with non-conference lightweight Bowling Green on deck. The issue was that the Commodores also wanted it, and took them seriously.
This week it is much different for Stockstill and his players. MTS comes in drained off of a bitter double-overtime loss in that CUSA showdown vs. Western Kentucky, a major revenge affair for the Blue Raiders on their homecoming night. I?ll let the HC take it from there - "Players hurt, and as a coach you hurt because you lost but you also hurt because you see how much it hurts your players. The investment that they put into that game and then to not have the success they worked so hard to achieve makes it tough. But you have to man up, be a man and move forward."
And as for having to play a non-conference road game this late in the schedule he offers more - "You played three in a row right there with LA Tech, North Texas and WKU, and you kind of get in a conference flow. You can't always draw it up how you want it or how you like it, but I've always like playing nonconference games early. That's just the way the schedule falls this year."
The defense is overmatched in a major way here, not having the leverage up front nor the speed in the secondary to counter the Missouri talent, and note that the Tigers will be attacking multiple ways, not just with the passing of Drew Lock, but now also the running of Zander Davis, both coming from the QB position. Meanwhile one of the MTS weaknesses is depth at WR, losing projected starters Jocquez Bruce and Terry Pettis back in August, and that will show here against an aggressive defense that has already come up with 10 interceptions.
The markets aren?t asking us for anything special here ? Missouri does not have to play a great game to win by 7 points. But with the talent gap, and the freshness and focus edge, the Tigers should be able to pull away into double figures, especially with a fast tempo from the underdog opening up opportunities for the superior players to take control.
