07:05 PM NHL [54] Washington Capitals -1.5 +125
10:35 PM NHL [71] Pittsburgh Penguins -117
10:35 PM NHL [74] San Jose Sharks -200
07:30 PM CFB [311] Arkansas State -4-115
08:25 PM NFL [307] TOTAL o50-110 (ATL FALCONS vrs TB BUCCANEERS)
08:05 PM NBA [707] Indiana Pacers -3-110
10:35 PM NBA [709] Oklahoma City Thunder +11.5 -105
1 unit bet pays 82 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Oilers vs. Rangers
Play: Under 5?
The Rangers steam-rolled the Blues by a 5-0 score on Tuesday (we won with New York on that night) but I believe they'll be in for a tougher battle on Thursday against the Oilers.
Edmonton has cooled off following a red hot start, dropping its last two games against the Senators and Maple Leafs. In those two losses, the Oilers managed only two goals. Things won't get any easier on the road at MSG on Thursday.
New York has scored 11 goals over its last two games but I'm thinking it may have been a little easier to get up for games against the Lightning and Blues. While the Oilers are an improved team, I'm not convinced they'll draw a great deal of motivation in this non-conference matchup.
The 'over' went 2-0 in this series last season but that only serves to give us additional value here, stretching the total to 5.5 from 5.0 a year ago.
The 'under' has cashed in each of the Oilers last seven games and that's a trend I'm comfortable backing again on Thursday.
Edmonton @ New York
Pick: Under 5.5
First-place Edmonton isn't just about a high-flying offense, as the defense is fifth in the NHL in goals allowed, and second in penalty killing. It's the second game of a long road trip and the offense has cooled off, scoring two goals the last two games, off a 3-2 loss at Toronto. Edmonton has gone seven straight games UNDER the total and is 18-7-1 UNDER when playing on one day of rest. Goaltender Cam Talbot was a backup goaltender for the Rangers for two seasons before joining the Oilers last season. He is among the league leaders in goals-against average (2.14) and save percentage (.932) and gets the start. The NY Rangers are tied for fifth in the league in goals allowed with Edmonton. New York has a dominant goalie of its own in Henrik Lundqvist, so look for both defenses to shine.
Flames at Sharks
Play: Under 5.5
The under is 9-1 in the Sharks 10 games so far this season. That record includes a current under streak of 7 in a row entering this Thursday night match-up with Calgary. The Flames are off of a 5-1 loss at Chicago but the game was truly much closer than that. The game was 1-1 going to the 3rd period and then the Blackhawks exploded for 4 goals which resulted in a rare over 5.5 on the road for Calgary. Away from home, in games with a total set at 5.5 goals by the oddsmakers, the under is a strong 41-22 in Flames games. Both of these clubs are struggling on the power play (San Jose 9.3% and Calgary 12.4%). Also, the Sharks have been strong on the penalty kill with an 85.7% kill rate. San Jose comes into this game off of a road loss but, at home this season, they have allowed just 1 single goal in each of their 4 games. San Jose will be hungry to bounce back on home ice here while the Flames, off of a bad 3rd period at Chicago, will also be ready to bounce back. That combination should lead to a tight-checking hard-fought low-scoring game with the emphasis on strong play inside their own zones. Each of the Flames 3 prior road games stayed under the total and that streak resumes here.
Pittsburgh -110
The Kings right now are the who's who of the NHL....The big issue is the net....If they go with Budaj, it might be an ugly night..Kings don't have any depth right now and his numbers are getting worse as he plays night in and night out...He has now started a total of 7 games in a row...He has allowed 8 goals in the last 3 games...Well it won't get an easier tonight facing a red hot Penguins teams...Pens have won 5 of the last 6, but they are coming off a back to back..Still it's early season so these guys should be ready to go tonight..I'd look to back away from the Pens on Saturday when they face San Jose....Big issue for the Kings is injuries and other issues..Players hurt and suspended right now isn't helping one bit...Yes they get a rest and a home game, but across the board the numbers look bad...They might get even worse as the next few games become complete...Pens are one of the top Power Play teams right now with one of the highest scoring offense...Kings on the other hand are like the worst offense in the league..they struggle to kill the penalty and they are one of the worst putting other teams in the PP....Nothing adds up here for the Kings even at home with the pens on a back to back...Not sure who goes tonight for the Kings, but i doubt it matters much..Another key point for this contest is the fact that G Matt Murray had a fantastic first outing...That might motivate Fleury in the net tonight to perform well.
Philadelphia at New York
Play: New York -146
The Islanders are in the midst of a 5 game home stand and are licking their wounds from a bad loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning by the score of 6-1. The Islanders have dug themselves an early hole in the competitive Metropolitan Division and need to start winning some games especially at home. The Flyers are on a two game win streak and they had a nice come from behind OT win against the Red Wings last night. The Islanders will look to come out with a better start tonight as they gave up two PP goals in the first period and were down 3-0 at the end of the first against Tampa Bay. With the Flyers playing back to back games look for the Islanders to try and jump on Philadelphia early as the legs are sometimes a little tired for the road team in the first period on the back to back. Also with the Flyers leading the league in goals allowed at 41, look for a struggling NYI offense to get healthy tonight against the Flyers.
On the heels of my free play for Wednesday on the Los Angeles Lakers outright against the Atlanta Hawks, I'm coming with the Orlando Magic to defeat the Sacramento Kings.
Vancouver +167 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are sitting pretty at 6-3 and are certainly one of this year?s early surprises. The Sens have won two in a row and three of four, which includes a 2-0 victory in Edmonton this past Sunday in the final game of their brief but difficult three-game trek through Western Canada. The first game of that trip was a 3-0 victory in Vancouver. Ottawa returned him to beat the Hurricanes in OT on Tuesday so this is its second game back. They have scored two goals or less in three straight and in four of its last five games. In Edmonton, the Sens were outshot 37-22 and won. On Tuesday, they Canes also outshot and out-chanced them. Analytically, the Sens are league average or below in almost every defensive and offensive category. They are a top-heavy team but winning is not sustainable when you al;low that many chances and are only scoring two goals a game.
The Canucks are taking back way too big a price here to pass up on. Vancouver has indeed lost six in a row and has been shutout three times over that span but they played L.A., Edmonton, Washington, Anaheim and Montreal over that span and did not look a bit out of place in any of them. In fact, Vancouver dominated the Habs last night, outshooting them 42-21 while absolutely owning the puck possession battle. Let?s not forget that the Canucks jumped out to a 4-0 record to start the season. They were obviously not that good but they are also not nearly as bad as their current six-game losing streak suggests and now they?re back an inflated price in a game they have a great chance of winning.
Colorado +155 over CHICAGO
OT included. We backed the Avalanche in their 5-1 home loss to the Predators on Tuesday but that is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. After that performance, Avs Captain, Gabriel Landseskog promised that the team will be better than that awful performance. He went on to say that everybody was embarrassed. A big effort from Colorado can be expected here and when that happens t is capable of defeating anyone, just like they did when they went into Pittsburgh and Tampa recently and defeated both the Pens and Bolts. The Avs poor effort in their last game now sets this one up nicely for a much better game.
The Blackhawks are 6-4 after winning three in a row and four of five. However, they defeated Toronto, New Jersey, Los Angeles and Calgary over that span. Against Toronto, the ?Hawks were down two goals late in the third before a late and lucky rally allowed them to win it in OT. Against the Devils, Chicago was outshot 28-12 through two periods and scored with two minutes remaining in the third before luckily winning that one in OT also. In Chicago?s 5-1 victory over Calgary on Tuesday, it scored five times on 22 shots on net while being outshot 34-22. The Blackhawks are very simply the second best team on the ice most nights. They have some serious defensive problems that will eventually lead to a bunch of losses. The Blackhawks are a great fade because they are priced like they are still elite when they are not. A team like Colorado can easily come in here and expose those flaws. Big overlay.
ARIZONA +130 over Nashville
OT included. There are so many things not to like about the Predators here. First, Nashville?s goaltending is horrible and you CANNOT win in this league consistently with weak goaltending. The team that gets better goaltending wins 90% of all games so when we can fade a road team with poor goaltending spotting a price, we are going to step in almost every time. Pekka Rinne fights almost every puck that comes his way. Secondly, the Preds will conclude their five-game trip here after playing in Colorado on Tuesday. That is not a favorable situation either. With the weight of losing every other game during this trip off their shoulders with that aforementioned victory in Colorado, the Preds will be looking forward to getting home. Aside from playing in Colorado, the Preds also played in Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim, which is difficult no matter how you break it down.
The Coyotes will very likely get the remnants from Nashville?s difficult trip here and they are precisely the type of hard-working team that can capitalize on a favorable situation. The Coyotes are coming off a confidence boosting victory over San Jose the game after returning home from a season opening six-game trip. The Coyotes have played the second toughest schedule in the league thus far, which figures to serve them well over the next stretch of games. They have won two of three home games with only loss being by one goal. The Coyotes are better this year than last. They are going to be a tough out all year in their own building, meaning that there is nothing but value taking back prices at home with this host. That applies here.
OKC
My free play for tonight is on the Oklahoma City Thunder, against the Golden State Warriors, as I want you taking the points in the first controversial, drama-filled game of the year. We've already had a couple of good showdowns, but this game tonight will receive plenty of hype.
And while the Warriors have that deadly lineup with Steph, Klay, KD and Draymond, I don't think they're going to have as easy a time as people think against KD's former employer. The Thunder, led by Russell Westbrook, will be on fire in Oakland.
Remember the season-opener, when the San Antonio Spurs trounced Golden State? I think the Thunder will use that blueprint to frustrate the Thunder, with a stringent defense, and Westbrook scoring his season high tonight. Hell, he may go for 50 while trying to will his team to victory.
Take the underdog in this one.
1* OKLAHOMA CITY
Celtics +10
I know Boston will be without Horford, Crowder and Olynyk for this one, but I still think the value is there to roll the dice on the Celtics in this spot. Several Cavs players were at Game 7 of the World Series last night, which into the morning hours. That was a crushing loss for the city of Cleveland and I expect to see a bit of a hangover effect from the Cavs against a depleted Celtics lineup. Keep in mind this is a deep and well-coached Boston team that is going to show up and give it their all here against the defending champs. It's worth mentioning the Cavs come in averaging 111.0 ppg. Under head coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams who average 103 or more points/game. This is also a team that's performed well when playing on no rest, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 when playing in back-to-back games.
Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. They are 2-2, but their two wins have come by a combined 6 points over the Nets and Pelicans, who are also two of the worst teams in the NBA. I like this value we are getting with the Pacers as only 2.5-point favorites here. The Pacers are on the rise, and once Jeff Teague starts playing the way he did in Atlanta, they're going to be very dangerous. The Bucks lost by 11 at home to Charlotte and by 15 at Detroit in their two losses. The Pacers won 3 of 4 meetings with the Bucks last season with their only loss coming by 4 points. They won both road meetings. The Bucks are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in. Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Orlando
I'm not convinced the oddsmakers had the right team favored in this game, which is probably why the line has come down to just one. The Kings arrive mired in a two-game slide, after losing at Atlanta and in Miami.
Tonight marks Sacramento's third road game in four days, as part of a five-game road trip that will span seven days. This is going to be one tired team, and after seeing how sluggish it played in its first two on this junket, I like my chances with the Magic.
Orlando is in after playing three straight on the road - at Detroit, Cleveland and Philadelphia. And after losing their first three overall, the Magic came alive to defeat the 76ers in a come-from-behind win on Tuesday. I was pretty impressed with how the Magic erased an 18-point deficit to notch the outright road win.
Orlando trailed by as many as 10 points in the fourth quarter and by four points with one minute remaining. It didn't stop the Magic from persevering. Tonight they carry the momentum into this game and win another.
3* ORLANDO
My free play for tonight is on the Over in the NFC showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Normally I would highly consider the Under in a game between these two, but not this year. Not when the Falcons' offense has been damn near brilliant.
And on the road against a capable Tampa Bay squad, the Falcons' Matty Ice will need that brilliance to shine through if they want to win.
The Falcons have the No. 1 offense in football, averaging 425.2 yards per game. They also rank No. 1 with 32.8 points per game - the only team that averages more than 28 points. That won't bode well for the Buccaneers' defense, which is allowing 27 points per game - ninth-worst in the NFL.
Now, let's not go slurping on the Falcons just yet. After all, they have the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league, allowing 28.9 points per game. That means Tampa Bay's explosive offense has the chance to come alive.
We've seen the Bucs put up more than 30 thrice this season, and they're averging a mere 21 points at home, where they are 0-3 this year. That's right, there is added motivation for their first home win of the season.
I'm going to count on a shootout tonight, and play this one high.
4* Buccaneers/Falcons Over
Thunder at Warriors
Pick: Under
These teams are young and like to run, especially the Thunder behind Russell Westbrook. However, this coach gets them to play defense, too, on a 6-1 run under the total on the road. Golden State is home and also plays tough defense, especially against good teams, 16-7-1 under the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Under is also 20-6-2 in the Warriors last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And when these rivals clash the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, including 6-1 under at the Warriors.
Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Buffalo
So, this is the big week that the MAC gets to ?show off?, with games on national television four straight nights. The Thursday game could be the worst of those, as Buffalo travels to Ohio U. The Bulls have been unusually brilliant on two occasions this year, getting upset wins over Army and Akron. Both of those wins were at home, on the road it has been a much different story, as they are 0-3 SU & ATS, scoring a paltry 8.0 PPG while allowing 39. That follows a trend of recent years as Buffalo is just 2-10 ATS in its L12 games against good teams with a winning percentage between 60-75%, getting outscored by 26.8 PPG in such contests. The Bobcats come off a nice upset win at Toledo, a game that kept them in the thick of the conference title chase. They are 7-0 ATS in their L7 home games when coming off an upset victory. If the motivation for staying in the hunt for the MAC title with a win here weren?t enough, Ohio will also be motivated by the fact that it lost in ugly fashion last year at Buffalo, 41-17, despite winning the yardage battle by 51. With Ohio only scoring about 29 PPG, this game might not be one you immediately pick out at a rout, but it sure looks to me like it could be.
Red Wolves as the road favorite here on Thursday is the call over the Panthers of Georgia State.
Arkansas State has things rolling the right way as they head into the final month of the season, winners of 3 straight. They have also won the last 3 series meetings against Georgia State (1-2 against the spread), winning by 14, 42 and 2 points.
A 4th straight win based on the previous results sure seems likely to me, especially when you consider the Panthers are just 2-6 straight up on the season. Sure, Georgia State has covered their last 6 games (4 as the underdog), but they were getting at least +6 points in each of their dog tries. That is NOT the case tonight, as this will be State's first try as the home underdog this year, a role in which they are just 1-4-1 dating back to 2014.
Ultimately what swings this game in favor of the hot road team is the quarterback position, as Arky State's Justice Hansen - formerly of Oklahoma! - just threw for 4 TD passes in last week's victory, while Georgia State is now turning to a redshirt freshman backup QB in Aaron Winchester.
That difference in stability has got to be worth a touchdown at least.
Arkansas State easy.
4* ARKANSAS STATE
In the Sights, Thursday NFL?
The issues surrounding the Tampa Bay defense were a major focus here on Tuesday, the Buccaneers not only having played to an exhausting count vs. Oakland on Sunday before this shot turnaround, but also not having played terribly well. Now that the full menu is being posted we can get into play with #307 Atlanta Falcons Team Total Over (8:25 Eastern), with 27.5 commonly available this morning, and some Atlanta & Under money out there right now possibly even creating a 27. Value extends to 28.
It isn?t just that Matt Ryan and company have put up the best offensive numbers in the NFL this season, their 6.8 yards per play more than a half yard better than anyone else, but that the numbers include road trips to Denver and Seattle, two of the three toughest places for an offense to compete (make Minnesota the third leg of that triangle). They have had 19 plays of 30 yards or more, which also leads the league by a distance, and allowing big plays has been a headache for the Bucs. This is a right place/right team/right time setting to back a group that will also bring the proper chip on their shoulder, after losing 31-24 at home to Tampa Bay in the season opener.
Saturday NCAA?
Florida has not been anything special since Urban Meyer left. The Gators bottomed out at 4-8 in 2013, but while going 10-4 and making it to the SEC Championship game LY may have looked like an uptick that was not necessarily the case ? when they had to step up vs. Florida State, Alabama and Michigan over the final three games they were manhandled 107-24. Now they are being given the benefit of some past reputation being brought back around this season, and it helps to set up #370 Arkansas (3:30 Eastern) for Saturday, with as high as +5.5 availabe in the Thursday morning trading, and value extending down to +4. Despite what the standings and polls show, the Razorbacks may well be the better team.
The 2016 Florida resume is thin. The most significant challenge came at Tennessee, where the Gators got worn down badly in the second half, and the only reason that they did not lose at Vanderbilt was because the Commodores were not quite good enough, and not for anything positive Florida did (the Gators only had 236 yards, but escaped 13-6 via a +2 turnover advantage). There once again is a dearth of first-rate talent in the skill positions, where Luke Del Rio lacks upside at QB and there is not a true lead RB, and even in getting that win over Georgia last week the offense only mustered 246 yards.
To set up the proper comparison here I can go to a neutral source for strength of schedule, and it tells much of the tale ? on Jeff Sagarin?s ratings Florida has faced the #66 slate so far, while for Arkansas it has been #6, and a case can be made that the Razorbacks have faced four teams ? Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi and Texas A&M ? that are all better than anyone Florida has taken on. Yet we get this value point because the Razorbacks took that awful beating in their last outing at Auburn, a game in which Brett Bielema?s team showed up gassed, having played Bama and Ole Miss in succession.
Now Arkansas has two weeks to prepare, which not only means being physically fresh again, but also allowing QB Austin Allen to heal. That will create the proper energy at the line of scrimmage, and because Allen has faced such a challenging gauntlet of defenses already the one strength Florida does have will just seem as business as usual for him.
10:35 PM NHL [71] Pittsburgh Penguins -117
10:35 PM NHL [74] San Jose Sharks -200
07:30 PM CFB [311] Arkansas State -4-115
08:25 PM NFL [307] TOTAL o50-110 (ATL FALCONS vrs TB BUCCANEERS)
08:05 PM NBA [707] Indiana Pacers -3-110
10:35 PM NBA [709] Oklahoma City Thunder +11.5 -105
1 unit bet pays 82 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Oilers vs. Rangers
Play: Under 5?
The Rangers steam-rolled the Blues by a 5-0 score on Tuesday (we won with New York on that night) but I believe they'll be in for a tougher battle on Thursday against the Oilers.
Edmonton has cooled off following a red hot start, dropping its last two games against the Senators and Maple Leafs. In those two losses, the Oilers managed only two goals. Things won't get any easier on the road at MSG on Thursday.
New York has scored 11 goals over its last two games but I'm thinking it may have been a little easier to get up for games against the Lightning and Blues. While the Oilers are an improved team, I'm not convinced they'll draw a great deal of motivation in this non-conference matchup.
The 'over' went 2-0 in this series last season but that only serves to give us additional value here, stretching the total to 5.5 from 5.0 a year ago.
The 'under' has cashed in each of the Oilers last seven games and that's a trend I'm comfortable backing again on Thursday.
Edmonton @ New York
Pick: Under 5.5
First-place Edmonton isn't just about a high-flying offense, as the defense is fifth in the NHL in goals allowed, and second in penalty killing. It's the second game of a long road trip and the offense has cooled off, scoring two goals the last two games, off a 3-2 loss at Toronto. Edmonton has gone seven straight games UNDER the total and is 18-7-1 UNDER when playing on one day of rest. Goaltender Cam Talbot was a backup goaltender for the Rangers for two seasons before joining the Oilers last season. He is among the league leaders in goals-against average (2.14) and save percentage (.932) and gets the start. The NY Rangers are tied for fifth in the league in goals allowed with Edmonton. New York has a dominant goalie of its own in Henrik Lundqvist, so look for both defenses to shine.
Flames at Sharks
Play: Under 5.5
The under is 9-1 in the Sharks 10 games so far this season. That record includes a current under streak of 7 in a row entering this Thursday night match-up with Calgary. The Flames are off of a 5-1 loss at Chicago but the game was truly much closer than that. The game was 1-1 going to the 3rd period and then the Blackhawks exploded for 4 goals which resulted in a rare over 5.5 on the road for Calgary. Away from home, in games with a total set at 5.5 goals by the oddsmakers, the under is a strong 41-22 in Flames games. Both of these clubs are struggling on the power play (San Jose 9.3% and Calgary 12.4%). Also, the Sharks have been strong on the penalty kill with an 85.7% kill rate. San Jose comes into this game off of a road loss but, at home this season, they have allowed just 1 single goal in each of their 4 games. San Jose will be hungry to bounce back on home ice here while the Flames, off of a bad 3rd period at Chicago, will also be ready to bounce back. That combination should lead to a tight-checking hard-fought low-scoring game with the emphasis on strong play inside their own zones. Each of the Flames 3 prior road games stayed under the total and that streak resumes here.
Pittsburgh -110
The Kings right now are the who's who of the NHL....The big issue is the net....If they go with Budaj, it might be an ugly night..Kings don't have any depth right now and his numbers are getting worse as he plays night in and night out...He has now started a total of 7 games in a row...He has allowed 8 goals in the last 3 games...Well it won't get an easier tonight facing a red hot Penguins teams...Pens have won 5 of the last 6, but they are coming off a back to back..Still it's early season so these guys should be ready to go tonight..I'd look to back away from the Pens on Saturday when they face San Jose....Big issue for the Kings is injuries and other issues..Players hurt and suspended right now isn't helping one bit...Yes they get a rest and a home game, but across the board the numbers look bad...They might get even worse as the next few games become complete...Pens are one of the top Power Play teams right now with one of the highest scoring offense...Kings on the other hand are like the worst offense in the league..they struggle to kill the penalty and they are one of the worst putting other teams in the PP....Nothing adds up here for the Kings even at home with the pens on a back to back...Not sure who goes tonight for the Kings, but i doubt it matters much..Another key point for this contest is the fact that G Matt Murray had a fantastic first outing...That might motivate Fleury in the net tonight to perform well.
Philadelphia at New York
Play: New York -146
The Islanders are in the midst of a 5 game home stand and are licking their wounds from a bad loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning by the score of 6-1. The Islanders have dug themselves an early hole in the competitive Metropolitan Division and need to start winning some games especially at home. The Flyers are on a two game win streak and they had a nice come from behind OT win against the Red Wings last night. The Islanders will look to come out with a better start tonight as they gave up two PP goals in the first period and were down 3-0 at the end of the first against Tampa Bay. With the Flyers playing back to back games look for the Islanders to try and jump on Philadelphia early as the legs are sometimes a little tired for the road team in the first period on the back to back. Also with the Flyers leading the league in goals allowed at 41, look for a struggling NYI offense to get healthy tonight against the Flyers.
On the heels of my free play for Wednesday on the Los Angeles Lakers outright against the Atlanta Hawks, I'm coming with the Orlando Magic to defeat the Sacramento Kings.
Vancouver +167 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are sitting pretty at 6-3 and are certainly one of this year?s early surprises. The Sens have won two in a row and three of four, which includes a 2-0 victory in Edmonton this past Sunday in the final game of their brief but difficult three-game trek through Western Canada. The first game of that trip was a 3-0 victory in Vancouver. Ottawa returned him to beat the Hurricanes in OT on Tuesday so this is its second game back. They have scored two goals or less in three straight and in four of its last five games. In Edmonton, the Sens were outshot 37-22 and won. On Tuesday, they Canes also outshot and out-chanced them. Analytically, the Sens are league average or below in almost every defensive and offensive category. They are a top-heavy team but winning is not sustainable when you al;low that many chances and are only scoring two goals a game.
The Canucks are taking back way too big a price here to pass up on. Vancouver has indeed lost six in a row and has been shutout three times over that span but they played L.A., Edmonton, Washington, Anaheim and Montreal over that span and did not look a bit out of place in any of them. In fact, Vancouver dominated the Habs last night, outshooting them 42-21 while absolutely owning the puck possession battle. Let?s not forget that the Canucks jumped out to a 4-0 record to start the season. They were obviously not that good but they are also not nearly as bad as their current six-game losing streak suggests and now they?re back an inflated price in a game they have a great chance of winning.
Colorado +155 over CHICAGO
OT included. We backed the Avalanche in their 5-1 home loss to the Predators on Tuesday but that is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. After that performance, Avs Captain, Gabriel Landseskog promised that the team will be better than that awful performance. He went on to say that everybody was embarrassed. A big effort from Colorado can be expected here and when that happens t is capable of defeating anyone, just like they did when they went into Pittsburgh and Tampa recently and defeated both the Pens and Bolts. The Avs poor effort in their last game now sets this one up nicely for a much better game.
The Blackhawks are 6-4 after winning three in a row and four of five. However, they defeated Toronto, New Jersey, Los Angeles and Calgary over that span. Against Toronto, the ?Hawks were down two goals late in the third before a late and lucky rally allowed them to win it in OT. Against the Devils, Chicago was outshot 28-12 through two periods and scored with two minutes remaining in the third before luckily winning that one in OT also. In Chicago?s 5-1 victory over Calgary on Tuesday, it scored five times on 22 shots on net while being outshot 34-22. The Blackhawks are very simply the second best team on the ice most nights. They have some serious defensive problems that will eventually lead to a bunch of losses. The Blackhawks are a great fade because they are priced like they are still elite when they are not. A team like Colorado can easily come in here and expose those flaws. Big overlay.
ARIZONA +130 over Nashville
OT included. There are so many things not to like about the Predators here. First, Nashville?s goaltending is horrible and you CANNOT win in this league consistently with weak goaltending. The team that gets better goaltending wins 90% of all games so when we can fade a road team with poor goaltending spotting a price, we are going to step in almost every time. Pekka Rinne fights almost every puck that comes his way. Secondly, the Preds will conclude their five-game trip here after playing in Colorado on Tuesday. That is not a favorable situation either. With the weight of losing every other game during this trip off their shoulders with that aforementioned victory in Colorado, the Preds will be looking forward to getting home. Aside from playing in Colorado, the Preds also played in Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim, which is difficult no matter how you break it down.
The Coyotes will very likely get the remnants from Nashville?s difficult trip here and they are precisely the type of hard-working team that can capitalize on a favorable situation. The Coyotes are coming off a confidence boosting victory over San Jose the game after returning home from a season opening six-game trip. The Coyotes have played the second toughest schedule in the league thus far, which figures to serve them well over the next stretch of games. They have won two of three home games with only loss being by one goal. The Coyotes are better this year than last. They are going to be a tough out all year in their own building, meaning that there is nothing but value taking back prices at home with this host. That applies here.
OKC
My free play for tonight is on the Oklahoma City Thunder, against the Golden State Warriors, as I want you taking the points in the first controversial, drama-filled game of the year. We've already had a couple of good showdowns, but this game tonight will receive plenty of hype.
And while the Warriors have that deadly lineup with Steph, Klay, KD and Draymond, I don't think they're going to have as easy a time as people think against KD's former employer. The Thunder, led by Russell Westbrook, will be on fire in Oakland.
Remember the season-opener, when the San Antonio Spurs trounced Golden State? I think the Thunder will use that blueprint to frustrate the Thunder, with a stringent defense, and Westbrook scoring his season high tonight. Hell, he may go for 50 while trying to will his team to victory.
Take the underdog in this one.
1* OKLAHOMA CITY
Celtics +10
I know Boston will be without Horford, Crowder and Olynyk for this one, but I still think the value is there to roll the dice on the Celtics in this spot. Several Cavs players were at Game 7 of the World Series last night, which into the morning hours. That was a crushing loss for the city of Cleveland and I expect to see a bit of a hangover effect from the Cavs against a depleted Celtics lineup. Keep in mind this is a deep and well-coached Boston team that is going to show up and give it their all here against the defending champs. It's worth mentioning the Cavs come in averaging 111.0 ppg. Under head coach Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams who average 103 or more points/game. This is also a team that's performed well when playing on no rest, as they are 25-12 ATS in their last 37 when playing in back-to-back games.
Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season. They are 2-2, but their two wins have come by a combined 6 points over the Nets and Pelicans, who are also two of the worst teams in the NBA. I like this value we are getting with the Pacers as only 2.5-point favorites here. The Pacers are on the rise, and once Jeff Teague starts playing the way he did in Atlanta, they're going to be very dangerous. The Bucks lost by 11 at home to Charlotte and by 15 at Detroit in their two losses. The Pacers won 3 of 4 meetings with the Bucks last season with their only loss coming by 4 points. They won both road meetings. The Bucks are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in. Milwaukee is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Orlando
I'm not convinced the oddsmakers had the right team favored in this game, which is probably why the line has come down to just one. The Kings arrive mired in a two-game slide, after losing at Atlanta and in Miami.
Tonight marks Sacramento's third road game in four days, as part of a five-game road trip that will span seven days. This is going to be one tired team, and after seeing how sluggish it played in its first two on this junket, I like my chances with the Magic.
Orlando is in after playing three straight on the road - at Detroit, Cleveland and Philadelphia. And after losing their first three overall, the Magic came alive to defeat the 76ers in a come-from-behind win on Tuesday. I was pretty impressed with how the Magic erased an 18-point deficit to notch the outright road win.
Orlando trailed by as many as 10 points in the fourth quarter and by four points with one minute remaining. It didn't stop the Magic from persevering. Tonight they carry the momentum into this game and win another.
3* ORLANDO
My free play for tonight is on the Over in the NFC showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Normally I would highly consider the Under in a game between these two, but not this year. Not when the Falcons' offense has been damn near brilliant.
And on the road against a capable Tampa Bay squad, the Falcons' Matty Ice will need that brilliance to shine through if they want to win.
The Falcons have the No. 1 offense in football, averaging 425.2 yards per game. They also rank No. 1 with 32.8 points per game - the only team that averages more than 28 points. That won't bode well for the Buccaneers' defense, which is allowing 27 points per game - ninth-worst in the NFL.
Now, let's not go slurping on the Falcons just yet. After all, they have the fourth-worst scoring defense in the league, allowing 28.9 points per game. That means Tampa Bay's explosive offense has the chance to come alive.
We've seen the Bucs put up more than 30 thrice this season, and they're averging a mere 21 points at home, where they are 0-3 this year. That's right, there is added motivation for their first home win of the season.
I'm going to count on a shootout tonight, and play this one high.
4* Buccaneers/Falcons Over
Thunder at Warriors
Pick: Under
These teams are young and like to run, especially the Thunder behind Russell Westbrook. However, this coach gets them to play defense, too, on a 6-1 run under the total on the road. Golden State is home and also plays tough defense, especially against good teams, 16-7-1 under the total against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Under is also 20-6-2 in the Warriors last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And when these rivals clash the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings, including 6-1 under at the Warriors.
Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Buffalo
So, this is the big week that the MAC gets to ?show off?, with games on national television four straight nights. The Thursday game could be the worst of those, as Buffalo travels to Ohio U. The Bulls have been unusually brilliant on two occasions this year, getting upset wins over Army and Akron. Both of those wins were at home, on the road it has been a much different story, as they are 0-3 SU & ATS, scoring a paltry 8.0 PPG while allowing 39. That follows a trend of recent years as Buffalo is just 2-10 ATS in its L12 games against good teams with a winning percentage between 60-75%, getting outscored by 26.8 PPG in such contests. The Bobcats come off a nice upset win at Toledo, a game that kept them in the thick of the conference title chase. They are 7-0 ATS in their L7 home games when coming off an upset victory. If the motivation for staying in the hunt for the MAC title with a win here weren?t enough, Ohio will also be motivated by the fact that it lost in ugly fashion last year at Buffalo, 41-17, despite winning the yardage battle by 51. With Ohio only scoring about 29 PPG, this game might not be one you immediately pick out at a rout, but it sure looks to me like it could be.
Red Wolves as the road favorite here on Thursday is the call over the Panthers of Georgia State.
Arkansas State has things rolling the right way as they head into the final month of the season, winners of 3 straight. They have also won the last 3 series meetings against Georgia State (1-2 against the spread), winning by 14, 42 and 2 points.
A 4th straight win based on the previous results sure seems likely to me, especially when you consider the Panthers are just 2-6 straight up on the season. Sure, Georgia State has covered their last 6 games (4 as the underdog), but they were getting at least +6 points in each of their dog tries. That is NOT the case tonight, as this will be State's first try as the home underdog this year, a role in which they are just 1-4-1 dating back to 2014.
Ultimately what swings this game in favor of the hot road team is the quarterback position, as Arky State's Justice Hansen - formerly of Oklahoma! - just threw for 4 TD passes in last week's victory, while Georgia State is now turning to a redshirt freshman backup QB in Aaron Winchester.
That difference in stability has got to be worth a touchdown at least.
Arkansas State easy.
4* ARKANSAS STATE
In the Sights, Thursday NFL?
The issues surrounding the Tampa Bay defense were a major focus here on Tuesday, the Buccaneers not only having played to an exhausting count vs. Oakland on Sunday before this shot turnaround, but also not having played terribly well. Now that the full menu is being posted we can get into play with #307 Atlanta Falcons Team Total Over (8:25 Eastern), with 27.5 commonly available this morning, and some Atlanta & Under money out there right now possibly even creating a 27. Value extends to 28.
It isn?t just that Matt Ryan and company have put up the best offensive numbers in the NFL this season, their 6.8 yards per play more than a half yard better than anyone else, but that the numbers include road trips to Denver and Seattle, two of the three toughest places for an offense to compete (make Minnesota the third leg of that triangle). They have had 19 plays of 30 yards or more, which also leads the league by a distance, and allowing big plays has been a headache for the Bucs. This is a right place/right team/right time setting to back a group that will also bring the proper chip on their shoulder, after losing 31-24 at home to Tampa Bay in the season opener.
Saturday NCAA?
Florida has not been anything special since Urban Meyer left. The Gators bottomed out at 4-8 in 2013, but while going 10-4 and making it to the SEC Championship game LY may have looked like an uptick that was not necessarily the case ? when they had to step up vs. Florida State, Alabama and Michigan over the final three games they were manhandled 107-24. Now they are being given the benefit of some past reputation being brought back around this season, and it helps to set up #370 Arkansas (3:30 Eastern) for Saturday, with as high as +5.5 availabe in the Thursday morning trading, and value extending down to +4. Despite what the standings and polls show, the Razorbacks may well be the better team.
The 2016 Florida resume is thin. The most significant challenge came at Tennessee, where the Gators got worn down badly in the second half, and the only reason that they did not lose at Vanderbilt was because the Commodores were not quite good enough, and not for anything positive Florida did (the Gators only had 236 yards, but escaped 13-6 via a +2 turnover advantage). There once again is a dearth of first-rate talent in the skill positions, where Luke Del Rio lacks upside at QB and there is not a true lead RB, and even in getting that win over Georgia last week the offense only mustered 246 yards.
To set up the proper comparison here I can go to a neutral source for strength of schedule, and it tells much of the tale ? on Jeff Sagarin?s ratings Florida has faced the #66 slate so far, while for Arkansas it has been #6, and a case can be made that the Razorbacks have faced four teams ? Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi and Texas A&M ? that are all better than anyone Florida has taken on. Yet we get this value point because the Razorbacks took that awful beating in their last outing at Auburn, a game in which Brett Bielema?s team showed up gassed, having played Bama and Ole Miss in succession.
Now Arkansas has two weeks to prepare, which not only means being physically fresh again, but also allowing QB Austin Allen to heal. That will create the proper energy at the line of scrimmage, and because Allen has faced such a challenging gauntlet of defenses already the one strength Florida does have will just seem as business as usual for him.
