07:05 PM NHL [2] Boston Bruins -180
07:05 PM NHL [4] Pittsburgh Penguins -170
07:35 PM NHL [9] TOTAL o5-125 (Vancouver Canucks vrs Detroit Red Wings)
07:35 PM NHL [14] Tampa Bay Lightning -175
09:05 PM NHL [19] TOTAL o5.5 -110 (Dallas Stars vrs Calgary Flames)
08:25 PM NFL [110] BAL RAVENS -5.5 -165 (B+2)
07:30 PM CFB [112] Duke +13-150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [502] Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 -150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [504] Miami Heat -1-110
1 unit bet pays 112 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Wild are 0-11 in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest...and 3-13 their last 16 games vs the Metro Division
Jets are 2-10-1 in the last 13 meetings in Arizona.
The UL Lafayette Ragin? Cajuns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Utah is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record...and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week
Stars vs. Flames
Play: Over 5?
These teams have combined for just 4 unders in 13 all-time meetings in Arizona. Winnipeg comes into this game riding a streak of 4 straight overs as they have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in their last 8 games. The Coyotes are off of a 4-2 win at Colorado and have scored 3 goals or more in 5 of their past 7 games. The Jets allowed just 2 goals in their blowout win over Dallas Tuesday but, prior to that, Winnipeg had allowed an average of 3.6 goals per game in their 5 prior games. Arizona allowed at least 3 goals in 9 of their first 11 games this season. The point is that neither one of these clubs is known for being overly strong in their own end and I expect a high-scoring match-up in the desert. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Coyotes games against teams with a losing record. That will improve the over in Jets games to 5-0 this month as both teams come in off of wins and they feel confident about pushing the pace in the offensive zone.
ARIZONA +102 over Winnipeg
OT included. The Winnipeg Jets are 6-8 and they?re coming off a resounding 8-2 victory over the Dallas Stars. That victory sticks out and makes them a difficult fade here but we?re not going to be heavily influenced by one game. The Jets have proven time and time again that they cannot be trusted. Whenever they take one step forward, they subsequently take two steps backward. Coach Paul Maurice insists on using the two-headed goalie system and it keeps backfiring in his face. The Jets are also 0-5 against top-10 competition and 0-6 against top-16 competition. That speaks volumes and says that if you show up, Winnipeg becomes very beatable. The Coyotes usually show up. The Jets are also without Bryan Little, Drew Stafford, Mathieu Perreault and Joel Armia among others. That leaves them very vulnerable up the middle.
After a very slow start, Arizona has won three of four with only loss occurring against the Ducks. The Coyotes have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league (Winnipeg?s schedule is ranked 24th) thus far and they?re 1-2 against top-10 teams and 2-3 against top-16. The Coyotes, just like the Jets are two games under .500 at 5-7. In their three recent victories, Arizona took two minor penalties or fewer in all three so it would appear that being disciplined is a key part of their strategy. That?s a good approach against the Jets, who often take foolish penalties at the worst times possible. We?ll now lean to this host at home. The ?Yotes have more determination, consistency, grit and a system they believe in while the Jets remain all over the map.
Dallas +113 over CALGARY
OT included. The Stars are coming off an 8-2 loss in Winnipeg so their stock is low. They are also 4-9 overall, which also decreases their stock. However, when a team gets embarrassed like Dallas did against Winnipeg, not only are they anxious to get back on the ice, it is also a wake-up call of sorts. Dallas may not be as good as they were a year ago but they are much better than their record indicates. They are a top-10 team in Corsi for during five-on-five play with 58.4 chances per 60 minutes. The Stars have outshot six of their past seven opponents. They outshot Minnesota 29-15 but lost 4-0. They outshot Columbus 38-28 and lost 3-2. They are still creating plenty of chances but the puck isn?t going in for them the way it did last year. Dallas also suffers from poor goaltending, which is something we do not like to get behind but Calgary?s goaltending is just as bad. More influential is that a response by Dallas is in order.
There are a couple of things working against the Flames tonight. First, they've been off since Sunday where they wrapped up a four game road trip with a record setting 23rd straight loss in Anaheim. They were also blown out by the Kings 5-0 the night before. Being off for three full days and returning home from a trip is the perfect recipe to come up flat. Brian Elliott has not been the savior the Flames had hoped when they signed him and now his confidence is pretty much shot. Elliott has given up five goals in each of his last two starts. Situationally speaking, this is a poor spot for the Flames, who are not in good form anyway while it is a very favorable spot for the Stars in that they were humiliated last game out.
CAROLINA -105 over Anaheim
OT included. This is strictly a play on numbers. In our November 3 podcast, Episode 10 (at about the 10 minute mark), we talked extensively about the ?Pinnacle? factor and how sharp an outfit they really are. While this does not apply to every game, it applies to this one because the Ducks are a well bet public team while the Hurricanes are not. On the overnight lines and this morning, Pinnacle was staying firm at -113 on Carolina, which was the highest price out there. They are also offering up a price (+102) on the Ducks. Bettors have options. In this case, anyone with multiple accounts can play Anaheim -110 at just about every sportsbook or they can take +102 at Pinnacle. Pinnacle is encouraging Ducks? money and that is the very reason we are playing the Hurricanes here.
It?s still early in the day at the time of this writing, We are anticipating money coming in on the Ducks so we are going to wait until later to pull the trigger here. A better number is very likely forthcoming and if it is not (unlikely), we can always pass. Based strictly on Pinnacle?s sharp numbers, Carolina is the prudent choice here.
Chicago vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
Dwyane Wade, a 12-time NBA All-Star and three-time NBA champion will be back in Dade (Wade?) County tonight, as the 4-4 Chicago Bulls visit the 2-4 Miami Heat. Wade makes his first trip to South Beach as a visiting player and his return to his adopted home of Miami will be an event will be aired on TNT. "I'm looking forward to it," Wade told ESPN after the Bulls beat the Orlando Magic on Monday night. "I'm looking forward to playing in the environment I played in for 13 years and competing against guys I've played with and have relationships with."
The now 34-year-old is averaging 17.9 PPG, second on the Bulls behind fellow All-Star guard Jimmy Butler (23.3) & 5.4), who is Chicago's primary scoring option. Butler scored a season-high 39 points against Atlanta last night, although the Bulls lost 115-107 to the Hawks. The Bulls are trying to get back to the postseason, after they missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2008. Chicago traded away star PG Derrick Rose and watched center Joakim Noah and power forward Pau Gasol leave as free agents. PG Rondo (7.5-4.6-6.8 ) and center Robin Lopez (7.9-6.1) are part of the ?new-look? Bulls, who now start Gibson (12.3-9.0) at the PF position, with Mirotic (9.8-4.9) coming off the bench with SF McDermott (11.0).
Miami is still adapting to not having Wade. The Heat re-signed center Hassan Whiteside to a new deal prior to the season and he?s been delivering big time, averaging 17.5 PPG and 13.8 RPG. PG Dragic?s numbers (18.0-4.5-6.2) are up with Wade gone and third-player Johnson (14.5-4.0) and second-year player Winslow (11.8-4.7) are also assuming bigger roles this season. Miami is hoping that Waiters, signed away from OKC as a free agent, will find his shooting touch. So far, he?s averaging just 9.5 PPG, while shooting only 31.9 percent from the floor.
Animosity with Heat president Pat Riley lingers from the breakdown in offseason negotiations that led to Wade returning to his hometown of Chicago. "I think you guys know I haven't talked to him," Wade told reporters on Wednesday. "It's as simple as that. I think I've been very open and honest about my respect and love with Pat. I've been honest that I haven't spoken to him since (last) season ended." Both teams enter having lost four of their last five but Miami rates an edge in the scheduling department, having not played since Monday, while the Bulls travel off a loss last night in Atlanta.
The make-up of these teams is different from last year but the Heat did win all four of last season's meetings, including victories by 22 and 18 points. Take the home team.
Pelicans vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -4
New Orleans is well on its way to a nightmare scenario this season as it has yet to win a game and tonight plays its third road contest in four nights. The Pelicans lost in Sacramento on Tuesday as once again their opponents let Anthony Davis have his points while concentrating defensively on everyone else. Davis scored 34 points with only two other teammates in double figures as Buddy Hield and E'Twaun Moore had 14 and 13 points, respectively. Moore is questionable for this game with a toe injury. Milwaukee has the luxury of three days off after it lost 86-75 in overtime at Dallas, which broke a three-game winning streak. The Bucks were playing a back-to-back and shot only 36.6 percent from the field with Jabari Parker the leading scorer with 16 points. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS this season and second-to-last with a -6.62 scoring margin.
Warriors vs. Nuggets
Play:Nuggets +6
Most are going to see this line and think the oddsmakers made a mistake, but I don't think that's the case at all. Whenever something looks to be this far off from what you would expect, chances are the books are on to something. With Golden State being arguably the biggest publicly backed team in the league, they aren't going to set a small line here without being confident the Nuggets can cover. While Denver is just 3-4 overall, they are 5-2 ATS and keep in mind they have played 5 of their first 6 on the road. The Nuggets played the Warriors tough in all 4 meetings last year, given just how good Golden State was, including a win at home in the last contest. You also can't overlook how difficult is to play a back-to-back set with the second game in the thin air of Denver. I think the Warriors come out flat here, similar to what we saw a few games back with their 20-point loss at LA to the Lakers.
As good as the UNC offense is, their defense is still pretty bad. How do you not accidentally have an interception this late in the season? This is still a rivalry and Duke still has a longshot of becoming bowl eligible with three straight wins.
La.-Lafayette +10
UL-Laf does a very things well..One of them is rushing defense..Well the one thing that Geo So does well is run the ball...The majority of the offense they generate comes from running..So if UL-Laf can slow them down, I like our chances.....Number wise these teams are almost even when we look at the stats...Georgia So. has struggled the last 5 or 6 games..They lost 5 of the last 6 and come off a tough game Vs. Ole Miss...Bowl season seems rather bleak if they can win two more games, but they might press here tonight..UL Laf should be relaxed as they have nothing to lose....I like the UL-Laf offense as far as players go, but they are limited overall...Geo So. struggles stopping the pass as they rank 50th giving up 220ypg...That's not terrible, but it leaves the door open for the Cajuns throwing the ball...The big weakness for Ul-Laf is the pass, but Geo So. passes about 15 times a game..The QB isn't good as his season completion % is about 57%....So the passing attack doesn't scare me..I think this is one of those tug of war type of games...These look like even teams and i worry about the overall health and motivation of the Eagles after a tough game loss Vs. Ole Miss...Stat wise these teams are about even, but laying 10 in a conf. game seems like a bit much here...I'll take the +10
Georgia Southern -7?
I think this Eagles team is coming in undervalued right now. They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but the schedule has been brutal. Their two conference losses during this stretch are against Appalachian State and Arkansas State. Both of which are perfect in conference play. The other three were on the road against Western Michigan, Georgia Tech and Ole Miss.
Keep in mind this was an Eagles team that was picked to be at or near the top of the Sun Belt standings. Even with the two losses this season, they are 17-4 in their 21 conference games since joining the Sun Belt.
As for the Ragin? Cajuns, this is a team that is trending in the wrong direction. Evident by the fact that they just lost by double-digits at home to Idaho. Lafayette is playing with zero confidence right now and they are so limited offensively. They come in ranked 107th in the country at just 364 ypg.
You might think this is a good matchup for the Ragin? Cajuns. They come in ranked 29th against the run, allowing just 126.6 ypg. Georgia Southern almost exclusively runs the ball, averaging 54 attempts a game. One thing to keep in mind with Lafayette?s run defense is they have played a lot of poor rushing teams. The teams they have played are only averaging 3.8 yards/carry.
It?s one thing to stop the run against a traditional rushing attack. However, the Eagles bring a difficult option attack to the table. They key here is that Lafayette only has 4-days to prepare for this game. On top of that, this is the first time they have played Georgia Southern since they joined the Sun Belt, so there's going to be a lot of unfamiliarity with their schemes.
If the Ragin? Cajuns have any trouble at all here against the run, this one could get ugly in a hurry, as Lafayette is not built to play from behind, especially on the road.
Cleveland +10 over BALTIMORE
It was a typical Sunday for Cleveland, as they once again lost by a big margin, this time to the Cowboys, 35-10. Cleveland has given up at least 25 points in each of their nine losses this season. Week after week, the Brownies are usually getting whacked and we completely understand how they are not an appealing choice. However, the Brownies get a rare, prime time game here and that?s when a team that continues to gets embarrassed usually comes up big. This is Cleveland?s Super Bowl only because they entire football world will be watching.
The Ravens are coming off a 21-14 victory over the Steelers. It might look like a nice win on paper but Baltimore was able to take advantage of a banged up Ben Roethlisberger, who likely came back too early from injury, again. Truth be told, the game was won on a 95-yard catch and run with Mike Wallace burning his former team. A home win against the Steelers is about as big as it gets for the Ravens and so they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl. Even coach Jim Harbaugh couldn't help himself by calling it a ?great win?. That win pulled the Ravens even with Pittsburgh at 4-4 for the AFC North lead. We are not going to put much stock into a win over a half crippled quarterback. Let us point out that the Steelers had one first down by half time and only two first downs and 69 total yards by the end of the third quarter. The bigger issue is that the Ravens couldn?t put the Steelers away. Furthermore, the Ravens were down 20-0 to Cleveland before a blocked convert attempt that they ran back for a safety changed the entire complexion of that game. Baltimore?s other two wins came against Jacksonville by 2 and Buffalo by 6 and they deserved to win neither. The Ravens will now go from a +3 home dog to a -10 point favorite on a short week. Perhaps more importantly, the Earthtones go from a +7 dog against Dallas to a +10 dog against the punch-less Ravens. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Ravens' chances of covering a number like this against anyone. First, they have trouble scoring 10 points. Secondly, the roster is old and depleted and the dynamic is untested, particularly on the offensive side. Baltimore?s identity used to be its defense but they no longer have a defined identity on either side of the ball, and while its man-for-man talent level is certainly higher than that of Cleveland?s, this is not a team we should be counting on to deliver as a big favorite against any opponent on a short or long week of preparation. We?re stepping in today because this number is too good to pass up on.
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday?
I see both play-on and play-against aspects that come out of the deeper examination of Baylor?s plight this week and it leads to #200 Oklahoma (Noon Eastern, note the time change), with -16 commonly available this morning, and some -15.5 to be found (the first one to the Wynn in Las Vegas gets to lay -15). I don?t have to say all that much about the Bears, a case of a team not having their concentration where it needs to be, and in particular a soft rush defense anyway, which comes front and center in this matchup.
Now for the flip side, and time once again for Oklahoma?s ?November Offense?. This is part of the running theme for the week ? those particular football notions that become even more important around this time on the schedule. One of them is that defenses wear down, hence the better running teams can take even greater advantage. The Sooners bring a pair of NFL-ready RBs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, and in this case they are extra fresh, neither having played a game over the last two weeks.
Grobe is well aware of what his team faces - ?The hardest part for a defense is playing a team with great running backs. They?re physical up front, and they?ve got skill guys on the perimeter and a quarterback who is really accurate and can get them the football. So you?ve got to be balanced, and that?s tough to do against these guys because they can hurt you so many ways.?
Oklahoma ignited last November when there was more of an emphasis on the ground game (I am going to throw in October 31 vs. Kansas because it was close enough from a timing standpoint)
Opponent Line Score Total ?O?
Kansas -39 62-7 710
Iowa St -25.5 52-16 689
Baylor +2 44-34 502
TCU -18 30-29 536
Ok St -7.5 58-23 524
The Sooners went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, the ground game being a prime factor, with at least 241 years in each of those games. I see more of the same here. While the Baylor defense was battered for 97 points and 1,237 yards over the past two games all Oklahoma had was a trip to Iowa State last Thursday. The superior team, with more physical energy and a much better focus, has a chance to score at will here, and at the fast pace that will be set there will be also opportunities, which reduces the impact of this point spread. I see value up to -17.
07:05 PM NHL [4] Pittsburgh Penguins -170
07:35 PM NHL [9] TOTAL o5-125 (Vancouver Canucks vrs Detroit Red Wings)
07:35 PM NHL [14] Tampa Bay Lightning -175
09:05 PM NHL [19] TOTAL o5.5 -110 (Dallas Stars vrs Calgary Flames)
08:25 PM NFL [110] BAL RAVENS -5.5 -165 (B+2)
07:30 PM CFB [112] Duke +13-150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [502] Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 -150 (B+2)
08:05 PM NBA [504] Miami Heat -1-110
1 unit bet pays 112 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Wild are 0-11 in their last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest...and 3-13 their last 16 games vs the Metro Division
Jets are 2-10-1 in the last 13 meetings in Arizona.
The UL Lafayette Ragin? Cajuns are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Utah is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record...and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week
Stars vs. Flames
Play: Over 5?
These teams have combined for just 4 unders in 13 all-time meetings in Arizona. Winnipeg comes into this game riding a streak of 4 straight overs as they have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in their last 8 games. The Coyotes are off of a 4-2 win at Colorado and have scored 3 goals or more in 5 of their past 7 games. The Jets allowed just 2 goals in their blowout win over Dallas Tuesday but, prior to that, Winnipeg had allowed an average of 3.6 goals per game in their 5 prior games. Arizona allowed at least 3 goals in 9 of their first 11 games this season. The point is that neither one of these clubs is known for being overly strong in their own end and I expect a high-scoring match-up in the desert. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season in Coyotes games against teams with a losing record. That will improve the over in Jets games to 5-0 this month as both teams come in off of wins and they feel confident about pushing the pace in the offensive zone.
ARIZONA +102 over Winnipeg
OT included. The Winnipeg Jets are 6-8 and they?re coming off a resounding 8-2 victory over the Dallas Stars. That victory sticks out and makes them a difficult fade here but we?re not going to be heavily influenced by one game. The Jets have proven time and time again that they cannot be trusted. Whenever they take one step forward, they subsequently take two steps backward. Coach Paul Maurice insists on using the two-headed goalie system and it keeps backfiring in his face. The Jets are also 0-5 against top-10 competition and 0-6 against top-16 competition. That speaks volumes and says that if you show up, Winnipeg becomes very beatable. The Coyotes usually show up. The Jets are also without Bryan Little, Drew Stafford, Mathieu Perreault and Joel Armia among others. That leaves them very vulnerable up the middle.
After a very slow start, Arizona has won three of four with only loss occurring against the Ducks. The Coyotes have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league (Winnipeg?s schedule is ranked 24th) thus far and they?re 1-2 against top-10 teams and 2-3 against top-16. The Coyotes, just like the Jets are two games under .500 at 5-7. In their three recent victories, Arizona took two minor penalties or fewer in all three so it would appear that being disciplined is a key part of their strategy. That?s a good approach against the Jets, who often take foolish penalties at the worst times possible. We?ll now lean to this host at home. The ?Yotes have more determination, consistency, grit and a system they believe in while the Jets remain all over the map.
Dallas +113 over CALGARY
OT included. The Stars are coming off an 8-2 loss in Winnipeg so their stock is low. They are also 4-9 overall, which also decreases their stock. However, when a team gets embarrassed like Dallas did against Winnipeg, not only are they anxious to get back on the ice, it is also a wake-up call of sorts. Dallas may not be as good as they were a year ago but they are much better than their record indicates. They are a top-10 team in Corsi for during five-on-five play with 58.4 chances per 60 minutes. The Stars have outshot six of their past seven opponents. They outshot Minnesota 29-15 but lost 4-0. They outshot Columbus 38-28 and lost 3-2. They are still creating plenty of chances but the puck isn?t going in for them the way it did last year. Dallas also suffers from poor goaltending, which is something we do not like to get behind but Calgary?s goaltending is just as bad. More influential is that a response by Dallas is in order.
There are a couple of things working against the Flames tonight. First, they've been off since Sunday where they wrapped up a four game road trip with a record setting 23rd straight loss in Anaheim. They were also blown out by the Kings 5-0 the night before. Being off for three full days and returning home from a trip is the perfect recipe to come up flat. Brian Elliott has not been the savior the Flames had hoped when they signed him and now his confidence is pretty much shot. Elliott has given up five goals in each of his last two starts. Situationally speaking, this is a poor spot for the Flames, who are not in good form anyway while it is a very favorable spot for the Stars in that they were humiliated last game out.
CAROLINA -105 over Anaheim
OT included. This is strictly a play on numbers. In our November 3 podcast, Episode 10 (at about the 10 minute mark), we talked extensively about the ?Pinnacle? factor and how sharp an outfit they really are. While this does not apply to every game, it applies to this one because the Ducks are a well bet public team while the Hurricanes are not. On the overnight lines and this morning, Pinnacle was staying firm at -113 on Carolina, which was the highest price out there. They are also offering up a price (+102) on the Ducks. Bettors have options. In this case, anyone with multiple accounts can play Anaheim -110 at just about every sportsbook or they can take +102 at Pinnacle. Pinnacle is encouraging Ducks? money and that is the very reason we are playing the Hurricanes here.
It?s still early in the day at the time of this writing, We are anticipating money coming in on the Ducks so we are going to wait until later to pull the trigger here. A better number is very likely forthcoming and if it is not (unlikely), we can always pass. Based strictly on Pinnacle?s sharp numbers, Carolina is the prudent choice here.
Chicago vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
Dwyane Wade, a 12-time NBA All-Star and three-time NBA champion will be back in Dade (Wade?) County tonight, as the 4-4 Chicago Bulls visit the 2-4 Miami Heat. Wade makes his first trip to South Beach as a visiting player and his return to his adopted home of Miami will be an event will be aired on TNT. "I'm looking forward to it," Wade told ESPN after the Bulls beat the Orlando Magic on Monday night. "I'm looking forward to playing in the environment I played in for 13 years and competing against guys I've played with and have relationships with."
The now 34-year-old is averaging 17.9 PPG, second on the Bulls behind fellow All-Star guard Jimmy Butler (23.3) & 5.4), who is Chicago's primary scoring option. Butler scored a season-high 39 points against Atlanta last night, although the Bulls lost 115-107 to the Hawks. The Bulls are trying to get back to the postseason, after they missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2008. Chicago traded away star PG Derrick Rose and watched center Joakim Noah and power forward Pau Gasol leave as free agents. PG Rondo (7.5-4.6-6.8 ) and center Robin Lopez (7.9-6.1) are part of the ?new-look? Bulls, who now start Gibson (12.3-9.0) at the PF position, with Mirotic (9.8-4.9) coming off the bench with SF McDermott (11.0).
Miami is still adapting to not having Wade. The Heat re-signed center Hassan Whiteside to a new deal prior to the season and he?s been delivering big time, averaging 17.5 PPG and 13.8 RPG. PG Dragic?s numbers (18.0-4.5-6.2) are up with Wade gone and third-player Johnson (14.5-4.0) and second-year player Winslow (11.8-4.7) are also assuming bigger roles this season. Miami is hoping that Waiters, signed away from OKC as a free agent, will find his shooting touch. So far, he?s averaging just 9.5 PPG, while shooting only 31.9 percent from the floor.
Animosity with Heat president Pat Riley lingers from the breakdown in offseason negotiations that led to Wade returning to his hometown of Chicago. "I think you guys know I haven't talked to him," Wade told reporters on Wednesday. "It's as simple as that. I think I've been very open and honest about my respect and love with Pat. I've been honest that I haven't spoken to him since (last) season ended." Both teams enter having lost four of their last five but Miami rates an edge in the scheduling department, having not played since Monday, while the Bulls travel off a loss last night in Atlanta.
The make-up of these teams is different from last year but the Heat did win all four of last season's meetings, including victories by 22 and 18 points. Take the home team.
Pelicans vs. Bucks
Play: Bucks -4
New Orleans is well on its way to a nightmare scenario this season as it has yet to win a game and tonight plays its third road contest in four nights. The Pelicans lost in Sacramento on Tuesday as once again their opponents let Anthony Davis have his points while concentrating defensively on everyone else. Davis scored 34 points with only two other teammates in double figures as Buddy Hield and E'Twaun Moore had 14 and 13 points, respectively. Moore is questionable for this game with a toe injury. Milwaukee has the luxury of three days off after it lost 86-75 in overtime at Dallas, which broke a three-game winning streak. The Bucks were playing a back-to-back and shot only 36.6 percent from the field with Jabari Parker the leading scorer with 16 points. New Orleans is 2-6 ATS this season and second-to-last with a -6.62 scoring margin.
Warriors vs. Nuggets
Play:Nuggets +6
Most are going to see this line and think the oddsmakers made a mistake, but I don't think that's the case at all. Whenever something looks to be this far off from what you would expect, chances are the books are on to something. With Golden State being arguably the biggest publicly backed team in the league, they aren't going to set a small line here without being confident the Nuggets can cover. While Denver is just 3-4 overall, they are 5-2 ATS and keep in mind they have played 5 of their first 6 on the road. The Nuggets played the Warriors tough in all 4 meetings last year, given just how good Golden State was, including a win at home in the last contest. You also can't overlook how difficult is to play a back-to-back set with the second game in the thin air of Denver. I think the Warriors come out flat here, similar to what we saw a few games back with their 20-point loss at LA to the Lakers.
As good as the UNC offense is, their defense is still pretty bad. How do you not accidentally have an interception this late in the season? This is still a rivalry and Duke still has a longshot of becoming bowl eligible with three straight wins.
La.-Lafayette +10
UL-Laf does a very things well..One of them is rushing defense..Well the one thing that Geo So does well is run the ball...The majority of the offense they generate comes from running..So if UL-Laf can slow them down, I like our chances.....Number wise these teams are almost even when we look at the stats...Georgia So. has struggled the last 5 or 6 games..They lost 5 of the last 6 and come off a tough game Vs. Ole Miss...Bowl season seems rather bleak if they can win two more games, but they might press here tonight..UL Laf should be relaxed as they have nothing to lose....I like the UL-Laf offense as far as players go, but they are limited overall...Geo So. struggles stopping the pass as they rank 50th giving up 220ypg...That's not terrible, but it leaves the door open for the Cajuns throwing the ball...The big weakness for Ul-Laf is the pass, but Geo So. passes about 15 times a game..The QB isn't good as his season completion % is about 57%....So the passing attack doesn't scare me..I think this is one of those tug of war type of games...These look like even teams and i worry about the overall health and motivation of the Eagles after a tough game loss Vs. Ole Miss...Stat wise these teams are about even, but laying 10 in a conf. game seems like a bit much here...I'll take the +10
Georgia Southern -7?
I think this Eagles team is coming in undervalued right now. They are just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but the schedule has been brutal. Their two conference losses during this stretch are against Appalachian State and Arkansas State. Both of which are perfect in conference play. The other three were on the road against Western Michigan, Georgia Tech and Ole Miss.
Keep in mind this was an Eagles team that was picked to be at or near the top of the Sun Belt standings. Even with the two losses this season, they are 17-4 in their 21 conference games since joining the Sun Belt.
As for the Ragin? Cajuns, this is a team that is trending in the wrong direction. Evident by the fact that they just lost by double-digits at home to Idaho. Lafayette is playing with zero confidence right now and they are so limited offensively. They come in ranked 107th in the country at just 364 ypg.
You might think this is a good matchup for the Ragin? Cajuns. They come in ranked 29th against the run, allowing just 126.6 ypg. Georgia Southern almost exclusively runs the ball, averaging 54 attempts a game. One thing to keep in mind with Lafayette?s run defense is they have played a lot of poor rushing teams. The teams they have played are only averaging 3.8 yards/carry.
It?s one thing to stop the run against a traditional rushing attack. However, the Eagles bring a difficult option attack to the table. They key here is that Lafayette only has 4-days to prepare for this game. On top of that, this is the first time they have played Georgia Southern since they joined the Sun Belt, so there's going to be a lot of unfamiliarity with their schemes.
If the Ragin? Cajuns have any trouble at all here against the run, this one could get ugly in a hurry, as Lafayette is not built to play from behind, especially on the road.
Cleveland +10 over BALTIMORE
It was a typical Sunday for Cleveland, as they once again lost by a big margin, this time to the Cowboys, 35-10. Cleveland has given up at least 25 points in each of their nine losses this season. Week after week, the Brownies are usually getting whacked and we completely understand how they are not an appealing choice. However, the Brownies get a rare, prime time game here and that?s when a team that continues to gets embarrassed usually comes up big. This is Cleveland?s Super Bowl only because they entire football world will be watching.
The Ravens are coming off a 21-14 victory over the Steelers. It might look like a nice win on paper but Baltimore was able to take advantage of a banged up Ben Roethlisberger, who likely came back too early from injury, again. Truth be told, the game was won on a 95-yard catch and run with Mike Wallace burning his former team. A home win against the Steelers is about as big as it gets for the Ravens and so they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl. Even coach Jim Harbaugh couldn't help himself by calling it a ?great win?. That win pulled the Ravens even with Pittsburgh at 4-4 for the AFC North lead. We are not going to put much stock into a win over a half crippled quarterback. Let us point out that the Steelers had one first down by half time and only two first downs and 69 total yards by the end of the third quarter. The bigger issue is that the Ravens couldn?t put the Steelers away. Furthermore, the Ravens were down 20-0 to Cleveland before a blocked convert attempt that they ran back for a safety changed the entire complexion of that game. Baltimore?s other two wins came against Jacksonville by 2 and Buffalo by 6 and they deserved to win neither. The Ravens will now go from a +3 home dog to a -10 point favorite on a short week. Perhaps more importantly, the Earthtones go from a +7 dog against Dallas to a +10 dog against the punch-less Ravens. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Ravens' chances of covering a number like this against anyone. First, they have trouble scoring 10 points. Secondly, the roster is old and depleted and the dynamic is untested, particularly on the offensive side. Baltimore?s identity used to be its defense but they no longer have a defined identity on either side of the ball, and while its man-for-man talent level is certainly higher than that of Cleveland?s, this is not a team we should be counting on to deliver as a big favorite against any opponent on a short or long week of preparation. We?re stepping in today because this number is too good to pass up on.
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday?
I see both play-on and play-against aspects that come out of the deeper examination of Baylor?s plight this week and it leads to #200 Oklahoma (Noon Eastern, note the time change), with -16 commonly available this morning, and some -15.5 to be found (the first one to the Wynn in Las Vegas gets to lay -15). I don?t have to say all that much about the Bears, a case of a team not having their concentration where it needs to be, and in particular a soft rush defense anyway, which comes front and center in this matchup.
Now for the flip side, and time once again for Oklahoma?s ?November Offense?. This is part of the running theme for the week ? those particular football notions that become even more important around this time on the schedule. One of them is that defenses wear down, hence the better running teams can take even greater advantage. The Sooners bring a pair of NFL-ready RBs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, and in this case they are extra fresh, neither having played a game over the last two weeks.
Grobe is well aware of what his team faces - ?The hardest part for a defense is playing a team with great running backs. They?re physical up front, and they?ve got skill guys on the perimeter and a quarterback who is really accurate and can get them the football. So you?ve got to be balanced, and that?s tough to do against these guys because they can hurt you so many ways.?
Oklahoma ignited last November when there was more of an emphasis on the ground game (I am going to throw in October 31 vs. Kansas because it was close enough from a timing standpoint)
Opponent Line Score Total ?O?
Kansas -39 62-7 710
Iowa St -25.5 52-16 689
Baylor +2 44-34 502
TCU -18 30-29 536
Ok St -7.5 58-23 524
The Sooners went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, the ground game being a prime factor, with at least 241 years in each of those games. I see more of the same here. While the Baylor defense was battered for 97 points and 1,237 yards over the past two games all Oklahoma had was a trip to Iowa State last Thursday. The superior team, with more physical energy and a much better focus, has a chance to score at will here, and at the fast pace that will be set there will be also opportunities, which reduces the impact of this point spread. I see value up to -17.
