07:05 PM NHL [51] TOTAL o5.5 -110 (Winnipeg Jets vrs Philadelphia Flyers)
07:35 PM NHL [58] TOTAL u5+110 (Nashville Predators vrs Ottawa Senators)
08:05 PM NHL [60] TOTAL u5-120 (Boston Bruins vrs Minnesota Wild)
08:05 PM NHL [62] TOTAL u5-115 (San Jose Sharks vrs Saint Louis Blues)
09:30 PM CFB [314] Troy -7-155 (B+2)
10:00 PM CBB [735] Connecticut -3.5 -150 (B+2)
07:00 PM CBB [758] SMU -4.5 -110
10:00 PM CBB Added Game [772] San Jose State -2-110
1 unit bet pays 136 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Winnipeg at Philadelphia
Play: Over 5?
The Jets are fresh off a somewhat surprising 4-0 home win over the Blackhawks two nights ago. I'm counting on another strong offensive performance here, but I'm not convinced the Jets will hold up particularly well defensively.
Note that prior to Tuesday's shutout, the Jets had allowed at least two goals in regulation time in nine consecutive games. They'll be hard-pressed to hold down an explosive Flyers squad that is coming off a subpar performance against Ottawa on Tuesday.
Philadelphia has had some trouble keeping the puck out of its own net (what else is new?), but the good news is the offense continues to hold its own, scoring 36 goals in regulation time over its last 11 contests.
The last two meetings in this series have been relatively low-scoring but this will be the first matchup this season.
San Jose -103 over ST. LOUIS
Regulation only. You?ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants over the Blues? 4-1 victory against the Sabres on Tuesday. Buffalo was missing Jack Eichel, Tyler Ennis, Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Bogosian, Nelson Deslauriers and Dimitri Kulikov. That game was tied 1-1 going to the third. The Blues are now 8-9. They have three wins over their past eight games and those victories occurred against Colorado, Columbus (in OT) and Buffalo. In the return visit to Columbus one week later, the Blues were down 8-2 before making the final 8-4. The Blues have taken five minor penalties or more an incredible seven times over their past 10 games. In other words, they are playing roughly 17% of the game short-handed. Furthermore, after a hot start, Jake Allen?s save percentage is down to just .901. However, Allen has also posted save percentages of .667, .808, .800 and .852 in four of his last eight games.
San Jose is a disciplined, well-coached team that rarely beats themselves. When you play the Sharkies, you had better come up with something good or chances are you will lose. The Sharks have taken one minor penalty four times in their last eight games. One of those was part of coincidental minors. While the Blue Notes are taking five or six a game, San Jose has taken two or less in eight of nine and three or less in 14 straight. San Jose got buried by Pittsburgh in last year?s Stanley Cup finals. The Sharks had their chance for revenge this year with two early games against the Pens but they lost both times while being outscored 8-2. That brings us to San Jose versus St. Louis in last year?s playoffs, where the Sharkies buried the Blue Notes in six games (it should have gone five) while outscoring them in those four victories, 20-8. The only difference between then and now is that the Blue Notes are worse and Ken Hitchcock has been to more all-you-can-eat buffets.
Coyotes vs. Canucks
Play: Over 5
5 of Vancouver's last 6 games have gone over the total as the Canucks have allowed 4.5 goals per game during this rough stretch. They face a Coyotes team looking to get back on track after a 2-1 OT loss last night at Calgary. Arizona, when playing the 2nd night of a back to back, has recorded an under just 11 times out of their last 30. Also, in road games with a posted total of 5 goals, only 5 of the Coyotes last 26 have resulted in an under. We are getting excellent line value with this total posted at 5 goals as the Canucks will be flying all over the ice after getting beaten 7-2 by the Rangers Tuesday. Vancouver will want to make the most of a team they know they can beat as they now host one of the worst teams in the league. The Canucks are 6-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record.
Winnipeg +123 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Until the market catches up or realizes how good these Jets are, they must continue to be played when offered a tag against inferior competition. Don?t get us wrong, as these Flyers are a formidable opponent that are quite capable of defeating anyone at the Wells Fargo Center but if we?re playing value, then the Jets are the smart play for several reasons. First, Philadelphia has allowed 155 high danger scoring chances and they don?t have the goaltending to compensate. Only the Oilers, Rangers, Canucks and Coyotes have allowed more. Secondly, Philadelphia is 1-4 against top-10 competition and 1-5 against top-16. They have played the 26th ranked schedule in the league so the numbers reveal that the Flyers have been beating up on weak competition. The Jets are not weak.
Winnipeg has picked up 12 out of a possible 16 points over its last eight games. That coincides with Paul Maurice picking one goaltender and sticking with him as oppose to switching every game. The Jets have one regulation loss (to the Rangers) over their last eight games. Three of Winnipeg?s last four victories occurred against Dallas, Los Angeles and the red-hot Blackhawks. To give you an idea of how deep and talented this roster is, consider that the Jets are wreaking havoc with Drew Stafford, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Joel Armia and Tyler Myers on the rack among others. Perhaps for the first time in a while, the Jets have some serious swag about them. They are playing a winning and aggressive brand of hockey while expecting to win instead of hoping. The Jets will now embark on a five-game trip that begins here and we almost always like to back a team that is going good in the first game of a trip. With a big edge in goal, current form and just about everything else, Winnipeg is easy to pull the trigger on here.
UCONN AT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
PLAY: UCONN -6.5 10pm #735
Perhaps the most surprising result to start the new season is the UConn Huskies being 0-2. It?s really hard to believe they lost home games to Wagner and Northeastern. That?s not meant as an insult to those two upset winners, particularly a Northeastern entry that might be pretty good. But it?s sure somewhat stunning to see UConn sitting at 0-2.
I would expect the Huskies to be 1-2 after they duel Loyola Marymount tonight. Connecticut simply has not been able to put the ball in the basket so far. But the Huskies are not turning the ball over, so I certainly feel this is just one of those blips that shouldn?t keep happening to what is a talented team.
Loyola is a middle of the road WCC team at best, and that might actually be a generous opinion. The Lions don?t really don anything especially well. Plus, their preferred style of play probably doesn?t work here. Loyola likes to do some pressing and as previously noted, the one area Connecticut has done well has been ball security.
UConn is still going to have to shoot the basketball better tonight than they did against Wagner or Northeastern. I think there?s a good chance the Huskies will do exactly that, as one they beat the Lions defense, they should get some pretty easy looks.
Connecticut also won?t be taking anything for granted after starting the campaign 0-2. Call it a tough break for the hosts, but they?re likely to get a very focused Huskies squad tonight, and I don?t see Loyola being able to hang in for 40 minutes. I?ll recommend laying the points with Connecticut tonight.
Rutgers vs. DePaul
Play: Rutgers +2
Rutgers and DePaul play in the Gavitt Games as someone looks to continue their undefeated start. Rutgers has a 2-0 start and some decent talent which could keep them competitive in Big 10 play. They are led by Corey Sanders and Mike Williams and a decent bench. DePaul has played only one game beating Robert Morris 78-72 as 11.5 point favorites. The Blue Demons lost four players from last year's team that won just nine games. DePaul has covered just 14 of their last 30 home games. I think Rutgers is the better team and we just have to hope that they play like it.
NYK @ WAS (no line)
Bookmakers are waiting to see if Wall and Beal play. Wall only logged 24 minutes yesterday so should be good to go today. Beal is very close to returning so I?d assume he?ll play as well. The Wizards are a mess though, sitting at 2-8 on the season. Both teams are on a b2b but the Knicks are in a 3in4 spot, while Washington had 3-days off prior to their game last night. With Porzingis (40 mins) and Anthony (37 mins) logging heavy minutes last night, fatigue could very well play a part today. Also important to note that Knicks are 1-4 SU/ATS on the road, while as bad as Washington has played overall, they?re 2-3 SU/ATS at home. The 3 losses came to CLE, HOU, and TOR, while the two wins were against BOS and ATL, all top-10 teams in the league. The line should be around -2/-3 WAS in this one I?d assume. Lean: WAS
New York at Washington
Pick: New York
Neither team started the season well, but New York is showing signs of life winning two straight over Dallas and Detroit with Kristaps Porzingis becoming a dominant force for the Knicks. Porzingis poured in 35 points on 13 of 22 shooting against the Pistons on Wednesday and Carmelo Anthony added 22 points. Joakim Noah made his presence felt by grabbing 15 rebounds and Derrick Rose contributed 15 points. Meanwhile, the Wizards might have hit rock bottom after a 109-102 loss to woeful Philadelphia while the 76ers shot 54.5 percent from the field. John Wall scored 27 points and will likely attempt his first back-to-back game tonight although Bradley Beal is doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Wizards are just 2-8 ATS with no rest dating to last season.
MIL @ MIA (no line)
There are questions whether Winslow and/or Dragic will play, so that?s the reason for no line right now. Winslow didn?t work out yesterday so it looks like he might miss another game. Dragic did practice, so has a much better chance of suiting up. Bucks are on a b2b in this one with Parker (35 mins) and Antetokounmpo (40 mins) logging some heavy minutes last night. They were off for 3-straight days prior to yesterday?s game though. Keep in mind that this b2b set involves both road-games, so travel makes it even tougher of a spot. Depending on who plays for the Heat and on the spread in this one, Miami is most likely my lean. Lean: MIA
POR @ HOU -4
While Portland is 1-6 ATS at home, they?re a respectable 3-2 ATS on the road so far this season. Clearly the bookmakers have been over-valuing them at home. But is there value on them on the road, tonight? Rockets are in a b2b and 3in4 spot. They?re coming off a close game against OKC last night, where Harden, Ariza, and Gordon all logged 37+ minutes. Houston is getting Beverley back, and his perimeter defense should be a boost against a guard-oriented offense like Portland?s. The problem for Portland is that outside of Lillard and McCollum, the rest of the players are fairly terrible. Lillard can carry a team, but it?s tough to back the Blazers against a superior team on the road. Remember that 3-2 ATS record for Portland away from home? Their wins are @ DEN, @ DAL, and @ MEM?all mediocre teams. This one is an easy pass for me. PASS
PHI @ MIN -11
Philly only has 1 fewer win than the Wolves, yet they?re a double-digit dog in this one. Of course being on a b2b/3in4 spot doesn?t help. Plus this is 6th straight game being played in a different city for Philly, so plenty of travel for them here. Wolves are playing their 4th straight at home, and this team is nearing full strength with both Rubio and LaVine rejoining the starting lineup. Timberwolves are a better team and they?re in a better physical spot here no doubt. A blowout is certainly plausible and maybe even likely. But this young team doesn?t know how to win games consistently just yet, and laying this many points with them is tough. PASS
CHI @ UTA (no line)
Favors is out for Utah today, while Hill + Rondo are both question marks. Guess the bookmakers are waiting for their statuses to update before posting the line. This game will feature two of the slower paced teams in the league (UTA 30th / CHI 21st), two top-10 defenses, and both above average offenses. They?re also both top-10 teams. Chicago is coming into it on a 3-game winning streak, while Utah is off a home loss to Memphis, though Favors got hurt in that one and both Hill/Hood missed that contest. It?ll be interesting to see the line on this one. Lean: CHI
Nashville vs. Ottawa
Pick: Nashville -133
Nashville has good balance across the board at #12 in goals scored, and fifth on the power play, while winning three of four. The defense is off a bad game to Toronto, but has been playing much better than that, allowing two total goals during its three-game win streak, anchored by newcomer defenseman P.K. Subban. They get goalie Pekka Rinne back tonight. They are a facing an Ottawa team with no offense at #27 in the NHL in goals scored, dead last on the power play. The Predators matchup well and have taken five of the last six meetings.
Philadelphia vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The 2-9 Philadelphia 76ers visit the 3-7 Minnesota Timberwolves Thursday night in the first game of TNT?s doubleheader. Minnesota is the NBA's youngest team (averaging 23.6 years of age), while the 76ers are fourth-youngest team in the league. Philadelphia opened the season with seven straight losses but last Friday's 109-105 OT win at home over the Pacers snapped a streak of 44 straight losses in the months of October and November but Philadelphia quickly followed with blowout road loss in Atlanta (117-96) and Houston (115-88). However, the 76ers won for the second time in four games last night, holding onto a big lead at home in beating the Washington Wizards 109-102. The 76ers shot 54.5 percent and had 30 assists (on 42 field goals), both season highs.
Minnesota allowed the Hornets to pull away in the second half in a Tuesday home loss (115-108), which kind of put the brakes on what the team had hoped was some built up momentum. Minnesota entered Tuesday?s contest having won two of its previous three games, with the loss coming against the NBA?s hottest team, the LA Clippers. Minny?s two wins were impressive showings, a 123-107 road win in Orlando plus a 125-99 home win over the Lakers, a game in which Andrew Wiggins scored a career-high 47 points. The T-wolves own a terrific trio of talented young players in Wiggins (26.6 PPG), Towns (22.0 & 8.8 ) and LaVine (19.7 PPG) and expectations are that Minnesota will soon be knocking on that postseason ?door!?
The 76ers opened the season without veteran guard Jerryd Bayless (wrist) plus young forwards Nerlens Noel (knee) and Ben Simmons (foot). They have also been managing the minutes restrictions on centers Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid. However, Embiid is getting about 22 minutes and averaging 18.8 & 7.3. Okafor has come off the bench and in 19 minutes, has averaged 11.3 & 3.9. Veteran forward Ilysova (12.9 & 4.8 ) has been an excellent addition but the bottom line is, Philly averages just 96.8 PPG (27th), while allowing 108.3 PPG (25th) on 46.8% shooting (29th).
Center Joel Embiid (foot) is slated to play after being rested on Wednesday but Jahlil Okafor, who scored a season-high 19 points last night before fouling out, is expected to be rested in this contest. The 76ers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and own one of the NBA?s weakest benches. Philly is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) on the road this season, getting outscored on average, 115.8-to-98.0 PPG. Lay the points with the T-wolves!
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Play Minnesota -11
Tonight we have the 2-9 Sixers at the 3-7 T'wolves. Now both these teams I really think are the future in the NBA as they both have very solid young talent but are off to a slow start. Sixers won last night in emotional fashion as a pretty big dog now they have to travel to play the hungry rested T'wolves not a good combo. The Sixers are a dreadful 4-24 Straight up and 9-19 33% ATS off win. Public is backing Minnesota but in this case they are correct. we will lay the big number here as I see the Sixers losing by 20 tonight.
Chicago at Utah
Pick: Under
Both teams play strong defense for their demanding coaches. Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg called a 113-88 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday his team's "most complete" game so far this season, and it marked a third straight win and a strong way to kick off a six-game road trip. The Bulls held their last three opponents under 100 points and limited the Trail Blazers to 35.8 percent from the floor (and 9-of-34 from 3-point range) on Tuesday. Guard Rajon Rondo sat out Tuesday after suffering an ankle injury in Monday's practice and is day-to-day. Chicago is on a 15-7-1 run under the total, 16-5-1 under on the road. Utah can play tough defense, too, 7-1 under vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Jazz guards Rodney Hood (illness) and George Hill (thumb) sat out Monday and are both day-to-day. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings, including 7-1-1 under the total at Utah.
Jazz -4
I like the Jazz here as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after winning and covering their last 3 games, including a 113-88 blowout win at Portland last time out as a 4-point dog. Utah on the other hand comes in off a 96-102 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite. That was a bad spot for the Jazz, as they were playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights and returning from a lengthy 5-game east coast road trip. Utah has had 2 days off since losing to Memphis an unlike the Blazers, who didn't show up to play against the Bulls, I look for a max effort here from the Jazz.
Arkansas St. @ Troy
Troy has cracked the Top-25 rankings and their sole loss, a 24-30 loss at Clemson, was actually the best game they?ve played all season. Troy is not really a Top-25 team but they are the class of the Sun Belt Conference and should end Arkansas State?s 5 game straight up and spread win streak (after starting the season 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS).
Arkansas State actually isn?t much better during their 5 game win streak than they were in their first 4 games (they?ve just faced a collection of horrible teams) but the Red Wolves are pretty good by Sun Belt standards ? rating at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (with Hansen at quarterback) and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively on a national scale.
Troy is actually a bit worse than average on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl). However, Troy has an aggressive defense that registers a lot of sacks and forces quarterbacks into bad throws, which lead to interceptions. Troy is not likely to continue to interception 1.9 passes per game but they do have a projected advantage of 0.7 turnovers in this game and an edge in special teams to go along with their modest advantage from the line of scrimmage. It all adds up to a double-digit win if these teams play like they?ve played so far this season and I like Troy minus the points. I?d take Troy in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Arkansas St. at Troy
Play: Troy -8
The Thursday night undercard should decide the Sun Belt title as Troy survived a close game with Appalachian State last week and Arkansas State has won five in a row since being swept in non-conference play. There aren?t many quality wins for the Red Wolves but the Sun Belt dominance in recent years is hard to ignore. A Troy squad that has out-rushed all nine foes this season and holds a great turnover margin will be tough to beat at home. These teams last met in 2013 and the great run for the Red Wolves has come with four of five games at home as they were out-gained with big turnover help in the season?s only road win. Four teams in the Sun Belt have winning conference records and Arkansas State hasn?t faced any of those teams, while two of Troy?s five wins came against the top four squads in the conference. This game should decide the title as Arkansas State won?t have to play Appalachian State but the statistics paint a huge edge for Troy on both sides of the ball, particularly when looking at the home and road splits. Troy has tremendous balance on offense while rarely taking sacks with an excellent protection scheme. The Red Wolves have marginal numbers with just 3.5 yards per rush this season and 57 percent passing and on a 5-0 ATS run Arkansas State looks a bit overvalued as this line powers to double-digits for the Trojans. Look for Troy to return to the top of the Sun Belt with another big win as the short week also gives the host a big advantage.
HOUSTON +14? over Louisville
Had Houston remained undefeated, this game could have easily been billed as the match-up of the year between two Heisman frontrunners but that was then and this is now. No matter how you break it down, one has to pay a premium to back the one-loss Cardinals here and that is not in our wheelhouse. Neither is spotting significant road points in a prime time Thursday nighter. Last year, these two teams combined for 65 total points in Louisville where quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. led the Cougars to a 34-31 victory over Jackson and the Cardinals. Again, that was in Louisville while this one is not.
Houston?s two losses against inferior opponents (SMU and Navy) led the Cougars to vanish quickly from the top-25 and the national radar, yet this team has not lost a step. Houston still compiles over 450 yards of offense per game, eclipsing over 30 points in all of their eight wins on the season. Many may forget that this is the same football team responsible for taking down a highly ranked Oklahoma on Labor Day weekend, where the Cougars simply outplayed the Sooners. Coupling this with their Peach Bowl win against Florida State, it is safe to say Houston will not be star struck in the least against Jackson and the Cardinals. We would venture to argue that Houston has the psychological edge in this contest. Ward and the rest of the Cougars know not only that they can hang with the Cardinals but that they can beat Louisville and Jackson in the most unaccommodating of environments. Despite a rather soft slate as of recent, Louisville has found themselves in peril on several occasions, first on the road against UVA where Jackson would salvage their campaign in the final minute and secondly falling behind 12-0 against Wake Forest at home before getting their offense firing on all cylinders. Sure, the Cardinals pull out the wins but this kind of approach would be hazardous and detrimental to their cause against a team like Houston, whom you simply cannot afford to give a lead. There is plenty of equity here, as Houston can certainly come in under the number or even pull off another upset with home field advantage working in their favor.
CAROLINA -3? over New Orleans
The Saints appeared to have last week's game over the Broncos wrapped up but a blocked extra point returned for two points cost New Orleans the game. It was a crazy finish that has been replayed all week. Despite the loss, the Saints have won four of their last six games and are getting some love from the pundits as an NFC South contender. While that's a real possibility, we're not excited about them in this spot travelling on a short week. The Saints are giving up over 400 yards of offense per game to their competition. It doesn't get much better on the ground, where they are giving up over 107 yards a game. Until their loss to Denver, New Orleans was on a nice run of covering five straight games. That has gotten some market attention for sure. When folks keep betting against a team and keep ripping up their tickets, the propensity would be to stop doing so, which is when we usually look to jump in. An extremely weak defense on a short week has zero appeal taking back these small points.
Carolina had last week's game with Kansas City literally ripped from the hands of receiver, Kelvin Benjamin. That fumble led to a K.C. field goal for the win. At 3-6 the Panthers are a big longshot to make the playoffs. Last year's Super Bowl dream season has become a nightmare for the Panthers. The big difference is last year they won most of the turnover battles while this year they?re ranked 29th in turnover differential. Turnovers are unpredictable but if we take them out of the equation here and hope that all things are equal than Carolina should put away this intruder like they have so many other times during the recent past. You see, the Panthers' offense has feasted on the Saints by putting up an average of just under 37 points per game in their last four meetings. Cam Newton has carved this Saints secondary/defense up to the tune of 12 touchdowns in those games. Yeah, the Saints nearly beat the Broncos in Week 10 but their level of play is almost always lower when they leave the Superdome and who knows if the effects of that loss last week will carry over onto the playing field. Besides that, the Panthers are certain to be more than motivated for this prime time game because that?s who they are. They love the spotlight and they love feasting on weak defenses. All of the above apply.
NFL Fantasy QB ? Russell Wilson
Wilson has already been a prime topic here this week, and there is an expectation that he will just get better as the season progresses, his health enabling the playbook to open up, with the fact that he played as well as he did when limited indicating how much upside there is. Yet he sits at #11 on the DraftKings board and #12 at FanDuel, which affords a good opportunity to get in play.
Here is where the mobility matters ? all any opponent can do is game plan based on what the films show them. That may leave the Eagles a step behind here, with the prospect of wrinkles being added that the Seahawks have not used yet. In particular note those quotes from Pete Carroll about Wilson?s mobility from the Tuesday topic ? it isn?t so much something that shows up in the statistics, like Wilson running with the ball, but his nimbleness in the pocket that allows for so much misdirection as a base part of that offense. I expect to see more coming from the Seattle playbook this week, and for Wilson to put up far better numbers than the way he is being priced.
Not just trivia, but something for the pockets?
As Louisville/Houston face off tonight, a nice little showcase between Lamar Jackson and Greg Ward, we can bring something from the old files back into play. Tom Herman is 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog since taking over at Houston, the outright aspect significant because in two of those games the Cougars were +13, while +7.5 in another.
So let?s roll it back a bit more. In three seasons as Ohio State OC the Buckeyes were underdogs six times, and won all of them outright. That makes it a 10-0 run of outright wins prior to tonight?s kickoff. Pre-Ohio State Herman spent three years at Iowa State, where naturally wins are difficult to come by, but the Cyclones were 14-11 ATS as underdogs while he was there, seven of them outright wins. And his first gig as an OC was with Rice in 2007-08, when the Owls went 8-7 ATS as underdogs, with six outright wins. Add it all up and it has been a 32-18 ATS run for Herman as OC or HC in an underdog role, but inside of that 23 outright upset wins. Hence why this is a rather big showcase for him in front of the national cameras this evening, with one more upset adding to his ?ask price? for wherever his next job is going to be next season.
As for tonight, yes we can play, especially with the morning markets bringing us +15. So it will be #312 Houston (8:00 Eastern) going into pocket. Here?s the gist ? Louisville has escalated to new heights on the national front not because Bobby Petrino?s building process has been special, but rather most of it the unique skills of Lamar Jackson. Jackson provides a huge challenge for opposing defenses to prepare for because they can?t emulate him in practice, nor run with him on the field once the game starts. But the Cougars can emulate Jackson, having a prototype of their own in Ward, and have plenty of speed on defense. They beat the Cardinals in Louisville last September, having a decent plan vs. Jackson in the first look, and unless he is a dominating force the talent gap at the other positions is nowhere near what this point spread is calling it.
And while shopping that one out you can also go ahead and take a lead for Saturday?
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
There are multiple recent themes converging when Florida and LSU meet in their make-up game Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge. They all point in the same direction, and a strong prospect of a Tiger blowout, so it will be #420 LSU (1:00 Eastern), with -13.5 out there in the Thursday morning trading, and this one good to -14.
I don?t have a high rating on the Gators. They were the target of an ?In the Sights?? ticket here two weeks ago at Arkansas, a game that was technically an upset based on the point spread but sure as hell wasn?t one on the field ? the Razorbacks won the scoreboard 31-10, and total offense was a corresponding 468-241. It exposed a team that has lived off of an ideal SEC luck of the draw this season, and one that maintains respect across the marketplace because of past reputation, and the fact that they are still alive to win the downtrodden SEC East. But the Gators were without difference makers at the offensive skill positions from the start, and how now have had injuries play a major role across the rest of the roster, the latest being MLB Jarrad Davis, who will really be missed against the LSU ground game. By the way, the other key injuries are in the OL, and that is a disastrous place to have them on the road against this defense.
LSU playing hard under Ed Orgeron was a theme developed here when he took over as interim HC, and it has been a 4-1 SU and ATS run, the only failure that loss to Alabama that was 0-0 in the fourth quarter. Across those games they have beaten the market expectations by a resounding 60 points. Want a meaningful recent comparison? Florida and LSU both played at Arkansas over the past two weeks, and the Tigers were a net of 49 points and 483 yards better than the Gators in those games. Now it is potentially the last go-round in Baton Rouge for Big Ed, and the level of energy from the players, and emotion from the fans, will be running high.
The physical energy ties in to the ?November? notions that have been detailed ? a strong running team is the ideal tool to steamroll fading defenses at this stage, and in Leornard Fournette and Derrius Guice the Tigers have a true dynamic duo. They can first wear the Florida defensive front down, and then likely wear them out, and there isn?t much fear of a back-door cover, with Austin Appleby and that depleted OL overmatched by the LSU defense.
Arkansas State +8?
I just think we are getting an inflated line here because of the Trojans being ranked in the Top 25 (AP Poll). While a great accomplishment, I?m not buying there only being 24 teams better than Troy.
Sure the Trojans have the better overall record, but both of these teams come in at 5-0 in Sun Belt play. Arkansas State has been a completely different team since they started out the year 0-4. I think this a much more evenly matched game than the spread here would suggest.
These two teams have played 3 common opponents. Troy is averaging almost 7 points and 110 yards more than Arkansas State in these games. However, the Red Wolves are allowing almost 90 yards fewer on the defensive side of the ball.
While Troy?s ranks 38th in the country in total defense, they are 106th against the pass, allowing 265.1 ypg. Arkansas State has a decent passing attack, as they are 55th in the country at 243.4 ypg. I look for the Red Wolves to be able keep pace offensively in this one. I also think there defense is going to play well here.
I also think there?s a slight edge here to Arkansas State based on the schedule. Both teams are playing on short rest (4 days). The big difference is the Red Wolves come in off an easy game last week against New Mexico State. Troy on the other hand played a huge game against Appalachian State. I just think it?s going to be a lot easier for Arkansas State to rebound in this spot.
A lot of Troy?s success has been a result of them winning the turnover battle. The Trojans have a +9 turnover margin on the season. Arkansas State has turned it over just 3 times in their last 4 games. On top of that, they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a +1 turnover margin/game. The Red Wolves are also a dominant 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Supporting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark this season.
07:35 PM NHL [58] TOTAL u5+110 (Nashville Predators vrs Ottawa Senators)
08:05 PM NHL [60] TOTAL u5-120 (Boston Bruins vrs Minnesota Wild)
08:05 PM NHL [62] TOTAL u5-115 (San Jose Sharks vrs Saint Louis Blues)
09:30 PM CFB [314] Troy -7-155 (B+2)
10:00 PM CBB [735] Connecticut -3.5 -150 (B+2)
07:00 PM CBB [758] SMU -4.5 -110
10:00 PM CBB Added Game [772] San Jose State -2-110
1 unit bet pays 136 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Winnipeg at Philadelphia
Play: Over 5?
The Jets are fresh off a somewhat surprising 4-0 home win over the Blackhawks two nights ago. I'm counting on another strong offensive performance here, but I'm not convinced the Jets will hold up particularly well defensively.
Note that prior to Tuesday's shutout, the Jets had allowed at least two goals in regulation time in nine consecutive games. They'll be hard-pressed to hold down an explosive Flyers squad that is coming off a subpar performance against Ottawa on Tuesday.
Philadelphia has had some trouble keeping the puck out of its own net (what else is new?), but the good news is the offense continues to hold its own, scoring 36 goals in regulation time over its last 11 contests.
The last two meetings in this series have been relatively low-scoring but this will be the first matchup this season.
San Jose -103 over ST. LOUIS
Regulation only. You?ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants over the Blues? 4-1 victory against the Sabres on Tuesday. Buffalo was missing Jack Eichel, Tyler Ennis, Ryan O'Reilly, Zach Bogosian, Nelson Deslauriers and Dimitri Kulikov. That game was tied 1-1 going to the third. The Blues are now 8-9. They have three wins over their past eight games and those victories occurred against Colorado, Columbus (in OT) and Buffalo. In the return visit to Columbus one week later, the Blues were down 8-2 before making the final 8-4. The Blues have taken five minor penalties or more an incredible seven times over their past 10 games. In other words, they are playing roughly 17% of the game short-handed. Furthermore, after a hot start, Jake Allen?s save percentage is down to just .901. However, Allen has also posted save percentages of .667, .808, .800 and .852 in four of his last eight games.
San Jose is a disciplined, well-coached team that rarely beats themselves. When you play the Sharkies, you had better come up with something good or chances are you will lose. The Sharks have taken one minor penalty four times in their last eight games. One of those was part of coincidental minors. While the Blue Notes are taking five or six a game, San Jose has taken two or less in eight of nine and three or less in 14 straight. San Jose got buried by Pittsburgh in last year?s Stanley Cup finals. The Sharks had their chance for revenge this year with two early games against the Pens but they lost both times while being outscored 8-2. That brings us to San Jose versus St. Louis in last year?s playoffs, where the Sharkies buried the Blue Notes in six games (it should have gone five) while outscoring them in those four victories, 20-8. The only difference between then and now is that the Blue Notes are worse and Ken Hitchcock has been to more all-you-can-eat buffets.
Coyotes vs. Canucks
Play: Over 5
5 of Vancouver's last 6 games have gone over the total as the Canucks have allowed 4.5 goals per game during this rough stretch. They face a Coyotes team looking to get back on track after a 2-1 OT loss last night at Calgary. Arizona, when playing the 2nd night of a back to back, has recorded an under just 11 times out of their last 30. Also, in road games with a posted total of 5 goals, only 5 of the Coyotes last 26 have resulted in an under. We are getting excellent line value with this total posted at 5 goals as the Canucks will be flying all over the ice after getting beaten 7-2 by the Rangers Tuesday. Vancouver will want to make the most of a team they know they can beat as they now host one of the worst teams in the league. The Canucks are 6-1 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record.
Winnipeg +123 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Until the market catches up or realizes how good these Jets are, they must continue to be played when offered a tag against inferior competition. Don?t get us wrong, as these Flyers are a formidable opponent that are quite capable of defeating anyone at the Wells Fargo Center but if we?re playing value, then the Jets are the smart play for several reasons. First, Philadelphia has allowed 155 high danger scoring chances and they don?t have the goaltending to compensate. Only the Oilers, Rangers, Canucks and Coyotes have allowed more. Secondly, Philadelphia is 1-4 against top-10 competition and 1-5 against top-16. They have played the 26th ranked schedule in the league so the numbers reveal that the Flyers have been beating up on weak competition. The Jets are not weak.
Winnipeg has picked up 12 out of a possible 16 points over its last eight games. That coincides with Paul Maurice picking one goaltender and sticking with him as oppose to switching every game. The Jets have one regulation loss (to the Rangers) over their last eight games. Three of Winnipeg?s last four victories occurred against Dallas, Los Angeles and the red-hot Blackhawks. To give you an idea of how deep and talented this roster is, consider that the Jets are wreaking havoc with Drew Stafford, Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault, Joel Armia and Tyler Myers on the rack among others. Perhaps for the first time in a while, the Jets have some serious swag about them. They are playing a winning and aggressive brand of hockey while expecting to win instead of hoping. The Jets will now embark on a five-game trip that begins here and we almost always like to back a team that is going good in the first game of a trip. With a big edge in goal, current form and just about everything else, Winnipeg is easy to pull the trigger on here.
UCONN AT LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
PLAY: UCONN -6.5 10pm #735
Perhaps the most surprising result to start the new season is the UConn Huskies being 0-2. It?s really hard to believe they lost home games to Wagner and Northeastern. That?s not meant as an insult to those two upset winners, particularly a Northeastern entry that might be pretty good. But it?s sure somewhat stunning to see UConn sitting at 0-2.
I would expect the Huskies to be 1-2 after they duel Loyola Marymount tonight. Connecticut simply has not been able to put the ball in the basket so far. But the Huskies are not turning the ball over, so I certainly feel this is just one of those blips that shouldn?t keep happening to what is a talented team.
Loyola is a middle of the road WCC team at best, and that might actually be a generous opinion. The Lions don?t really don anything especially well. Plus, their preferred style of play probably doesn?t work here. Loyola likes to do some pressing and as previously noted, the one area Connecticut has done well has been ball security.
UConn is still going to have to shoot the basketball better tonight than they did against Wagner or Northeastern. I think there?s a good chance the Huskies will do exactly that, as one they beat the Lions defense, they should get some pretty easy looks.
Connecticut also won?t be taking anything for granted after starting the campaign 0-2. Call it a tough break for the hosts, but they?re likely to get a very focused Huskies squad tonight, and I don?t see Loyola being able to hang in for 40 minutes. I?ll recommend laying the points with Connecticut tonight.
Rutgers vs. DePaul
Play: Rutgers +2
Rutgers and DePaul play in the Gavitt Games as someone looks to continue their undefeated start. Rutgers has a 2-0 start and some decent talent which could keep them competitive in Big 10 play. They are led by Corey Sanders and Mike Williams and a decent bench. DePaul has played only one game beating Robert Morris 78-72 as 11.5 point favorites. The Blue Demons lost four players from last year's team that won just nine games. DePaul has covered just 14 of their last 30 home games. I think Rutgers is the better team and we just have to hope that they play like it.
NYK @ WAS (no line)
Bookmakers are waiting to see if Wall and Beal play. Wall only logged 24 minutes yesterday so should be good to go today. Beal is very close to returning so I?d assume he?ll play as well. The Wizards are a mess though, sitting at 2-8 on the season. Both teams are on a b2b but the Knicks are in a 3in4 spot, while Washington had 3-days off prior to their game last night. With Porzingis (40 mins) and Anthony (37 mins) logging heavy minutes last night, fatigue could very well play a part today. Also important to note that Knicks are 1-4 SU/ATS on the road, while as bad as Washington has played overall, they?re 2-3 SU/ATS at home. The 3 losses came to CLE, HOU, and TOR, while the two wins were against BOS and ATL, all top-10 teams in the league. The line should be around -2/-3 WAS in this one I?d assume. Lean: WAS
New York at Washington
Pick: New York
Neither team started the season well, but New York is showing signs of life winning two straight over Dallas and Detroit with Kristaps Porzingis becoming a dominant force for the Knicks. Porzingis poured in 35 points on 13 of 22 shooting against the Pistons on Wednesday and Carmelo Anthony added 22 points. Joakim Noah made his presence felt by grabbing 15 rebounds and Derrick Rose contributed 15 points. Meanwhile, the Wizards might have hit rock bottom after a 109-102 loss to woeful Philadelphia while the 76ers shot 54.5 percent from the field. John Wall scored 27 points and will likely attempt his first back-to-back game tonight although Bradley Beal is doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Wizards are just 2-8 ATS with no rest dating to last season.
MIL @ MIA (no line)
There are questions whether Winslow and/or Dragic will play, so that?s the reason for no line right now. Winslow didn?t work out yesterday so it looks like he might miss another game. Dragic did practice, so has a much better chance of suiting up. Bucks are on a b2b in this one with Parker (35 mins) and Antetokounmpo (40 mins) logging some heavy minutes last night. They were off for 3-straight days prior to yesterday?s game though. Keep in mind that this b2b set involves both road-games, so travel makes it even tougher of a spot. Depending on who plays for the Heat and on the spread in this one, Miami is most likely my lean. Lean: MIA
POR @ HOU -4
While Portland is 1-6 ATS at home, they?re a respectable 3-2 ATS on the road so far this season. Clearly the bookmakers have been over-valuing them at home. But is there value on them on the road, tonight? Rockets are in a b2b and 3in4 spot. They?re coming off a close game against OKC last night, where Harden, Ariza, and Gordon all logged 37+ minutes. Houston is getting Beverley back, and his perimeter defense should be a boost against a guard-oriented offense like Portland?s. The problem for Portland is that outside of Lillard and McCollum, the rest of the players are fairly terrible. Lillard can carry a team, but it?s tough to back the Blazers against a superior team on the road. Remember that 3-2 ATS record for Portland away from home? Their wins are @ DEN, @ DAL, and @ MEM?all mediocre teams. This one is an easy pass for me. PASS
PHI @ MIN -11
Philly only has 1 fewer win than the Wolves, yet they?re a double-digit dog in this one. Of course being on a b2b/3in4 spot doesn?t help. Plus this is 6th straight game being played in a different city for Philly, so plenty of travel for them here. Wolves are playing their 4th straight at home, and this team is nearing full strength with both Rubio and LaVine rejoining the starting lineup. Timberwolves are a better team and they?re in a better physical spot here no doubt. A blowout is certainly plausible and maybe even likely. But this young team doesn?t know how to win games consistently just yet, and laying this many points with them is tough. PASS
CHI @ UTA (no line)
Favors is out for Utah today, while Hill + Rondo are both question marks. Guess the bookmakers are waiting for their statuses to update before posting the line. This game will feature two of the slower paced teams in the league (UTA 30th / CHI 21st), two top-10 defenses, and both above average offenses. They?re also both top-10 teams. Chicago is coming into it on a 3-game winning streak, while Utah is off a home loss to Memphis, though Favors got hurt in that one and both Hill/Hood missed that contest. It?ll be interesting to see the line on this one. Lean: CHI
Nashville vs. Ottawa
Pick: Nashville -133
Nashville has good balance across the board at #12 in goals scored, and fifth on the power play, while winning three of four. The defense is off a bad game to Toronto, but has been playing much better than that, allowing two total goals during its three-game win streak, anchored by newcomer defenseman P.K. Subban. They get goalie Pekka Rinne back tonight. They are a facing an Ottawa team with no offense at #27 in the NHL in goals scored, dead last on the power play. The Predators matchup well and have taken five of the last six meetings.
Philadelphia vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The 2-9 Philadelphia 76ers visit the 3-7 Minnesota Timberwolves Thursday night in the first game of TNT?s doubleheader. Minnesota is the NBA's youngest team (averaging 23.6 years of age), while the 76ers are fourth-youngest team in the league. Philadelphia opened the season with seven straight losses but last Friday's 109-105 OT win at home over the Pacers snapped a streak of 44 straight losses in the months of October and November but Philadelphia quickly followed with blowout road loss in Atlanta (117-96) and Houston (115-88). However, the 76ers won for the second time in four games last night, holding onto a big lead at home in beating the Washington Wizards 109-102. The 76ers shot 54.5 percent and had 30 assists (on 42 field goals), both season highs.
Minnesota allowed the Hornets to pull away in the second half in a Tuesday home loss (115-108), which kind of put the brakes on what the team had hoped was some built up momentum. Minnesota entered Tuesday?s contest having won two of its previous three games, with the loss coming against the NBA?s hottest team, the LA Clippers. Minny?s two wins were impressive showings, a 123-107 road win in Orlando plus a 125-99 home win over the Lakers, a game in which Andrew Wiggins scored a career-high 47 points. The T-wolves own a terrific trio of talented young players in Wiggins (26.6 PPG), Towns (22.0 & 8.8 ) and LaVine (19.7 PPG) and expectations are that Minnesota will soon be knocking on that postseason ?door!?
The 76ers opened the season without veteran guard Jerryd Bayless (wrist) plus young forwards Nerlens Noel (knee) and Ben Simmons (foot). They have also been managing the minutes restrictions on centers Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid. However, Embiid is getting about 22 minutes and averaging 18.8 & 7.3. Okafor has come off the bench and in 19 minutes, has averaged 11.3 & 3.9. Veteran forward Ilysova (12.9 & 4.8 ) has been an excellent addition but the bottom line is, Philly averages just 96.8 PPG (27th), while allowing 108.3 PPG (25th) on 46.8% shooting (29th).
Center Joel Embiid (foot) is slated to play after being rested on Wednesday but Jahlil Okafor, who scored a season-high 19 points last night before fouling out, is expected to be rested in this contest. The 76ers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and own one of the NBA?s weakest benches. Philly is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS) on the road this season, getting outscored on average, 115.8-to-98.0 PPG. Lay the points with the T-wolves!
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Play Minnesota -11
Tonight we have the 2-9 Sixers at the 3-7 T'wolves. Now both these teams I really think are the future in the NBA as they both have very solid young talent but are off to a slow start. Sixers won last night in emotional fashion as a pretty big dog now they have to travel to play the hungry rested T'wolves not a good combo. The Sixers are a dreadful 4-24 Straight up and 9-19 33% ATS off win. Public is backing Minnesota but in this case they are correct. we will lay the big number here as I see the Sixers losing by 20 tonight.
Chicago at Utah
Pick: Under
Both teams play strong defense for their demanding coaches. Chicago Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg called a 113-88 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday his team's "most complete" game so far this season, and it marked a third straight win and a strong way to kick off a six-game road trip. The Bulls held their last three opponents under 100 points and limited the Trail Blazers to 35.8 percent from the floor (and 9-of-34 from 3-point range) on Tuesday. Guard Rajon Rondo sat out Tuesday after suffering an ankle injury in Monday's practice and is day-to-day. Chicago is on a 15-7-1 run under the total, 16-5-1 under on the road. Utah can play tough defense, too, 7-1 under vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Jazz guards Rodney Hood (illness) and George Hill (thumb) sat out Monday and are both day-to-day. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings, including 7-1-1 under the total at Utah.
Jazz -4
I like the Jazz here as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after winning and covering their last 3 games, including a 113-88 blowout win at Portland last time out as a 4-point dog. Utah on the other hand comes in off a 96-102 home loss to the Grizzlies as a 6-point favorite. That was a bad spot for the Jazz, as they were playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights and returning from a lengthy 5-game east coast road trip. Utah has had 2 days off since losing to Memphis an unlike the Blazers, who didn't show up to play against the Bulls, I look for a max effort here from the Jazz.
Arkansas St. @ Troy
Troy has cracked the Top-25 rankings and their sole loss, a 24-30 loss at Clemson, was actually the best game they?ve played all season. Troy is not really a Top-25 team but they are the class of the Sun Belt Conference and should end Arkansas State?s 5 game straight up and spread win streak (after starting the season 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS).
Arkansas State actually isn?t much better during their 5 game win streak than they were in their first 4 games (they?ve just faced a collection of horrible teams) but the Red Wolves are pretty good by Sun Belt standards ? rating at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (with Hansen at quarterback) and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively on a national scale.
Troy is actually a bit worse than average on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl). However, Troy has an aggressive defense that registers a lot of sacks and forces quarterbacks into bad throws, which lead to interceptions. Troy is not likely to continue to interception 1.9 passes per game but they do have a projected advantage of 0.7 turnovers in this game and an edge in special teams to go along with their modest advantage from the line of scrimmage. It all adds up to a double-digit win if these teams play like they?ve played so far this season and I like Troy minus the points. I?d take Troy in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Arkansas St. at Troy
Play: Troy -8
The Thursday night undercard should decide the Sun Belt title as Troy survived a close game with Appalachian State last week and Arkansas State has won five in a row since being swept in non-conference play. There aren?t many quality wins for the Red Wolves but the Sun Belt dominance in recent years is hard to ignore. A Troy squad that has out-rushed all nine foes this season and holds a great turnover margin will be tough to beat at home. These teams last met in 2013 and the great run for the Red Wolves has come with four of five games at home as they were out-gained with big turnover help in the season?s only road win. Four teams in the Sun Belt have winning conference records and Arkansas State hasn?t faced any of those teams, while two of Troy?s five wins came against the top four squads in the conference. This game should decide the title as Arkansas State won?t have to play Appalachian State but the statistics paint a huge edge for Troy on both sides of the ball, particularly when looking at the home and road splits. Troy has tremendous balance on offense while rarely taking sacks with an excellent protection scheme. The Red Wolves have marginal numbers with just 3.5 yards per rush this season and 57 percent passing and on a 5-0 ATS run Arkansas State looks a bit overvalued as this line powers to double-digits for the Trojans. Look for Troy to return to the top of the Sun Belt with another big win as the short week also gives the host a big advantage.
HOUSTON +14? over Louisville
Had Houston remained undefeated, this game could have easily been billed as the match-up of the year between two Heisman frontrunners but that was then and this is now. No matter how you break it down, one has to pay a premium to back the one-loss Cardinals here and that is not in our wheelhouse. Neither is spotting significant road points in a prime time Thursday nighter. Last year, these two teams combined for 65 total points in Louisville where quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. led the Cougars to a 34-31 victory over Jackson and the Cardinals. Again, that was in Louisville while this one is not.
Houston?s two losses against inferior opponents (SMU and Navy) led the Cougars to vanish quickly from the top-25 and the national radar, yet this team has not lost a step. Houston still compiles over 450 yards of offense per game, eclipsing over 30 points in all of their eight wins on the season. Many may forget that this is the same football team responsible for taking down a highly ranked Oklahoma on Labor Day weekend, where the Cougars simply outplayed the Sooners. Coupling this with their Peach Bowl win against Florida State, it is safe to say Houston will not be star struck in the least against Jackson and the Cardinals. We would venture to argue that Houston has the psychological edge in this contest. Ward and the rest of the Cougars know not only that they can hang with the Cardinals but that they can beat Louisville and Jackson in the most unaccommodating of environments. Despite a rather soft slate as of recent, Louisville has found themselves in peril on several occasions, first on the road against UVA where Jackson would salvage their campaign in the final minute and secondly falling behind 12-0 against Wake Forest at home before getting their offense firing on all cylinders. Sure, the Cardinals pull out the wins but this kind of approach would be hazardous and detrimental to their cause against a team like Houston, whom you simply cannot afford to give a lead. There is plenty of equity here, as Houston can certainly come in under the number or even pull off another upset with home field advantage working in their favor.
CAROLINA -3? over New Orleans
The Saints appeared to have last week's game over the Broncos wrapped up but a blocked extra point returned for two points cost New Orleans the game. It was a crazy finish that has been replayed all week. Despite the loss, the Saints have won four of their last six games and are getting some love from the pundits as an NFC South contender. While that's a real possibility, we're not excited about them in this spot travelling on a short week. The Saints are giving up over 400 yards of offense per game to their competition. It doesn't get much better on the ground, where they are giving up over 107 yards a game. Until their loss to Denver, New Orleans was on a nice run of covering five straight games. That has gotten some market attention for sure. When folks keep betting against a team and keep ripping up their tickets, the propensity would be to stop doing so, which is when we usually look to jump in. An extremely weak defense on a short week has zero appeal taking back these small points.
Carolina had last week's game with Kansas City literally ripped from the hands of receiver, Kelvin Benjamin. That fumble led to a K.C. field goal for the win. At 3-6 the Panthers are a big longshot to make the playoffs. Last year's Super Bowl dream season has become a nightmare for the Panthers. The big difference is last year they won most of the turnover battles while this year they?re ranked 29th in turnover differential. Turnovers are unpredictable but if we take them out of the equation here and hope that all things are equal than Carolina should put away this intruder like they have so many other times during the recent past. You see, the Panthers' offense has feasted on the Saints by putting up an average of just under 37 points per game in their last four meetings. Cam Newton has carved this Saints secondary/defense up to the tune of 12 touchdowns in those games. Yeah, the Saints nearly beat the Broncos in Week 10 but their level of play is almost always lower when they leave the Superdome and who knows if the effects of that loss last week will carry over onto the playing field. Besides that, the Panthers are certain to be more than motivated for this prime time game because that?s who they are. They love the spotlight and they love feasting on weak defenses. All of the above apply.
NFL Fantasy QB ? Russell Wilson
Wilson has already been a prime topic here this week, and there is an expectation that he will just get better as the season progresses, his health enabling the playbook to open up, with the fact that he played as well as he did when limited indicating how much upside there is. Yet he sits at #11 on the DraftKings board and #12 at FanDuel, which affords a good opportunity to get in play.
Here is where the mobility matters ? all any opponent can do is game plan based on what the films show them. That may leave the Eagles a step behind here, with the prospect of wrinkles being added that the Seahawks have not used yet. In particular note those quotes from Pete Carroll about Wilson?s mobility from the Tuesday topic ? it isn?t so much something that shows up in the statistics, like Wilson running with the ball, but his nimbleness in the pocket that allows for so much misdirection as a base part of that offense. I expect to see more coming from the Seattle playbook this week, and for Wilson to put up far better numbers than the way he is being priced.
Not just trivia, but something for the pockets?
As Louisville/Houston face off tonight, a nice little showcase between Lamar Jackson and Greg Ward, we can bring something from the old files back into play. Tom Herman is 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog since taking over at Houston, the outright aspect significant because in two of those games the Cougars were +13, while +7.5 in another.
So let?s roll it back a bit more. In three seasons as Ohio State OC the Buckeyes were underdogs six times, and won all of them outright. That makes it a 10-0 run of outright wins prior to tonight?s kickoff. Pre-Ohio State Herman spent three years at Iowa State, where naturally wins are difficult to come by, but the Cyclones were 14-11 ATS as underdogs while he was there, seven of them outright wins. And his first gig as an OC was with Rice in 2007-08, when the Owls went 8-7 ATS as underdogs, with six outright wins. Add it all up and it has been a 32-18 ATS run for Herman as OC or HC in an underdog role, but inside of that 23 outright upset wins. Hence why this is a rather big showcase for him in front of the national cameras this evening, with one more upset adding to his ?ask price? for wherever his next job is going to be next season.
As for tonight, yes we can play, especially with the morning markets bringing us +15. So it will be #312 Houston (8:00 Eastern) going into pocket. Here?s the gist ? Louisville has escalated to new heights on the national front not because Bobby Petrino?s building process has been special, but rather most of it the unique skills of Lamar Jackson. Jackson provides a huge challenge for opposing defenses to prepare for because they can?t emulate him in practice, nor run with him on the field once the game starts. But the Cougars can emulate Jackson, having a prototype of their own in Ward, and have plenty of speed on defense. They beat the Cardinals in Louisville last September, having a decent plan vs. Jackson in the first look, and unless he is a dominating force the talent gap at the other positions is nowhere near what this point spread is calling it.
And while shopping that one out you can also go ahead and take a lead for Saturday?
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
There are multiple recent themes converging when Florida and LSU meet in their make-up game Saturday afternoon in Baton Rouge. They all point in the same direction, and a strong prospect of a Tiger blowout, so it will be #420 LSU (1:00 Eastern), with -13.5 out there in the Thursday morning trading, and this one good to -14.
I don?t have a high rating on the Gators. They were the target of an ?In the Sights?? ticket here two weeks ago at Arkansas, a game that was technically an upset based on the point spread but sure as hell wasn?t one on the field ? the Razorbacks won the scoreboard 31-10, and total offense was a corresponding 468-241. It exposed a team that has lived off of an ideal SEC luck of the draw this season, and one that maintains respect across the marketplace because of past reputation, and the fact that they are still alive to win the downtrodden SEC East. But the Gators were without difference makers at the offensive skill positions from the start, and how now have had injuries play a major role across the rest of the roster, the latest being MLB Jarrad Davis, who will really be missed against the LSU ground game. By the way, the other key injuries are in the OL, and that is a disastrous place to have them on the road against this defense.
LSU playing hard under Ed Orgeron was a theme developed here when he took over as interim HC, and it has been a 4-1 SU and ATS run, the only failure that loss to Alabama that was 0-0 in the fourth quarter. Across those games they have beaten the market expectations by a resounding 60 points. Want a meaningful recent comparison? Florida and LSU both played at Arkansas over the past two weeks, and the Tigers were a net of 49 points and 483 yards better than the Gators in those games. Now it is potentially the last go-round in Baton Rouge for Big Ed, and the level of energy from the players, and emotion from the fans, will be running high.
The physical energy ties in to the ?November? notions that have been detailed ? a strong running team is the ideal tool to steamroll fading defenses at this stage, and in Leornard Fournette and Derrius Guice the Tigers have a true dynamic duo. They can first wear the Florida defensive front down, and then likely wear them out, and there isn?t much fear of a back-door cover, with Austin Appleby and that depleted OL overmatched by the LSU defense.
Arkansas State +8?
I just think we are getting an inflated line here because of the Trojans being ranked in the Top 25 (AP Poll). While a great accomplishment, I?m not buying there only being 24 teams better than Troy.
Sure the Trojans have the better overall record, but both of these teams come in at 5-0 in Sun Belt play. Arkansas State has been a completely different team since they started out the year 0-4. I think this a much more evenly matched game than the spread here would suggest.
These two teams have played 3 common opponents. Troy is averaging almost 7 points and 110 yards more than Arkansas State in these games. However, the Red Wolves are allowing almost 90 yards fewer on the defensive side of the ball.
While Troy?s ranks 38th in the country in total defense, they are 106th against the pass, allowing 265.1 ypg. Arkansas State has a decent passing attack, as they are 55th in the country at 243.4 ypg. I look for the Red Wolves to be able keep pace offensively in this one. I also think there defense is going to play well here.
I also think there?s a slight edge here to Arkansas State based on the schedule. Both teams are playing on short rest (4 days). The big difference is the Red Wolves come in off an easy game last week against New Mexico State. Troy on the other hand played a huge game against Appalachian State. I just think it?s going to be a lot easier for Arkansas State to rebound in this spot.
A lot of Troy?s success has been a result of them winning the turnover battle. The Trojans have a +9 turnover margin on the season. Arkansas State has turned it over just 3 times in their last 4 games. On top of that, they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a +1 turnover margin/game. The Red Wolves are also a dominant 16-5 ATS in their last 21 conference games. Supporting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark this season.
