7:05 PM NHL [52] Washington Capitals -1.5 +140
7:05 PM NHL [54] Pittsburgh Penguins -175
8:05 PM NHL [64] Saint Louis Blues -135
8:35 PM NHL [68] Chicago Blackhawks -150
8:25 PM NFL [301] DAL COWBOYS -1-185 (B+2)
7:05 PM NBA [702] Charlotte Hornets -9.5 -150 (B+2)
10:35 PM NBA [3711] TOTAL o60.5 -110 (1Q Houston Rockets vrs 1Q Golden State Warriors)
3:50 AM SOC [204362] Melbourne Victory -165 over Perth Glory (AUSTRALIA - A LEAGUE soccer) - Dec 02
1 unit bet pays 85 ....betdsi line
TOTAL o60.5 -110 (1Q Houston Rockets vrs 1Q Golden State Warriors)
I scanned the box scores of last 10 games for these teams and this really stood out:
1-both teams average more points 1st quarter than any other quarter.
2-both average over 30 in 1st quarter, Houston's only low 1stQ was vs the #3 Memphis defense and a weird night Toro unexpectedly decided to play defense.
3-both teams give up a tons of points in 1st Q too....they seem to just love to start a game by running and gunning!
they also had a day off and now all those rested egos, ready to start running with a bang, will be spotlighted on national TV.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The New York Rangers continue to play great hockey and that includes on the road, as they've won six of their last seven outside of New York. Nothing really changes with the Buffalo Sabres, as it's the same song and dance every night with this team. The Rangers have also used the Sabres as a punching bag over the years. You have to like the Rangers to stay hot and get an easy road victory.
The Senators have had a solid start to their year and I look for it to continue here vs a Flyers team that has been really inconsistent so far. The Flyers are just 4-6 on the road, while the Sens are 8-6 at home and the Sens have a nice edge in goal with Condon over Mason. The Flyers are just 8-23-5 in their last 36 trips to Ottawa and they are catching a team that is off a bad home loss. This situation does not set up well for the Flyers.
Going with the Blue Jackets in this one. They have been a solid team this year and the road team is 5-1 the last six in this series. The Jackets have struggled of late with consistency, but they will be looking for revenge following a 3-2 home loss to the Avs a few games ago. Colorado has lost their last three games in a row and they are just 4-7 at home for the year. Take Columbus in this one.
A 37-game non-conference home winning streak suggests that Iowa State has a good chance of avoiding a two-game losing streak. The team is ranked No. 19 in the AP poll and have now been ranked in a school-record 60 consecutive weeks?the third longest stretch in the nation behind Kansas and Arizona. An established offensive force at 88.8 points per game, the Cyclones have also turned the heat defensively and are limiting opponents to 64.8 points per outing on 35.6 percent shooting.
Los Angeles vs. Arizona
Pick: Los Angeles -148
Los Angeles has excellent balance and is playing well, winning five of the last six. L.A. lost last night but the deep Kings are 11-5 when playing on no days of rest. They face a bad Arizona team that is #25 in goals scored, #29 on the power play, #27 in goals allowed and #24 in penalty killing. The status of Oliver Ekman-Larsson remains up in the air because of an upper-body injury that forced the defenseman to exit Tuesday's game after two periods. Arizona is on an 8-17 run, as well as 23-58 against a team with a winning record.
New York at Buffalo
Play: New York
This line has dropped all morning line and is now in a very favorable price range for a Rangers club that is certainly the better team plus also playing with home loss revenge. Yes it was last season but April wasn?t that long ago and the Rangers lost to the Sabres 4-3 at Madison Square Garden in a game that New York #1 netminder Henrik Lundqvist got pulled early after allowing 3 goals on just 9 shots. You can bet (literally!) that Lundqvist and the Rangers will have revenge on their minds tonight and, even though they are off of a win over Carolina they also have another game with the Hurricanes on deck. That said, this game tonight is certainly the focal point for the Rangers in terms of their current scheduling situation. That said, when the Rangers are focused they are tough to beat and they also are catching the Sabres off of a big divisional win (5-4 over Ottawa) so it is a good spot to fade Buffalo. The Sabres, before their win over the Senators, had lost 8 of their 10 prior games. Buffalo, prior to the win over the Sens, had also been held to 2 goals or less in 12 of their last 13 games! That is significant here because the Rangers are the top ranked offense in the league at 3.67 goals per game while the Sabres are dead last at 1.95 goals per game so far this season. The drop in line here makes this one well worth the investment.
DETROIT +113 over Florida
OT included. The Red Wings are being greatly disrespected here. Who the f**k are the Panthers to be favored in Detroit? Florida is 11-12 and they?re also 4-7 against the top-16 teams in the league. The Panthers will play their third straight on the road and they haven?t won a game in regulation since November 19th when they defeated Ottawa but was outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 28-11. The game before defeating Ottawa, the Panthers lost in Toronto, 6-1. In five of their past seven games, the Panthers have scored two goals or less. They fire their coach and now they?re supposed to go on some sort of roll? The Panthers are so beatable and cannot be road chalk here.
This entire market is down on the Red Wings and has been since the beginning of the year. While some of it is warranted, most of it is not and we?re starting to take an interest in them because they?re so undervalued. The Red Wings have suffered from a lack of offense but don?t expect it to last much longer, as they?re loaded up front with speed and skill. Frans Nielsen has been playing great hockey. Dylan Larkin is not producing like last year but it?s only because of poor puck luck. Larkin is getting a ton of good looks but he?s just not burying them yet. Add Anthony Mantha, a good looking youngster, Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green and Justin Abdelkader to go along with Nielsen and Larkin and one can get a picture of how lethal this group can be. Detroit?s maligned defense is taking heat but they may be underrated too and appear to be getting better as the season wears on. Detroit defeated Dallas 3-1 in its last game. Previously, they played New Jersey and Montreal and outshot both of them by counts of 33-19 and 33-24 respectively. The Red Wings are not a contender, nor are they an upper echelon team but as a dog at home to this inferior invader, we would back them 100% of the time and make no exception here.
ST. LOUIS -? +116 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. There is no question that we underestimated the Blues before the season started. After a slow start, the Blue Notes are now second in the Central. Depth is such a weapon right now in the NHL and the Blues have it even after their offseason subtractions. The Blues are the best possession team in the NHL up to this point and when one guy gets cold, another one gets hot. The Blues have won six of seven with only loss over that span occurring against the Capitals. The Blues are healthy, they?re well rested and they?re in very good form at the moment.
By contrast, the Bolts have been nothing short of a mess but the market has not caught up to just how flawed they really are. There are long stretches every single game in which the Lightning cannot get the puck out of their own end. Against a team like St. Louis, that is going to take a toll on everyone. Only four teams, Arizona, Winnipeg, the Rangers and Dallas have had more face-offs in their own end than Tampa, which is further proof of its difficulty of moving the puck out. The loss of Steven Stamkos hurts big time. Defensemen Luke Witkowsk and Slater Koekkoek are being forced to play more minutes than they should be because Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr Nikita Nesterov and even Victor Hedman are making so many bad decisions back there. To add to their misery, Ben Bishop is not getting as lucky anymore (we?ve been saying for two years how bad he truly is) with a sorry .902 save percentage and a league low .841 save percentage on the penalty kill. Lastly, the Bolts are 0-6 against top-10 teams and a league worst 1-9 against top-16 teams. When the Lightning do win, it is against the lower echelon teams in the NHL of which the Blues are not.
BUFFALO +119 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. If you?re looking for overvalued teams that are in line for big regression, look no further than the Rangers. Here?s a team that is 26th in Corsi against per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and that comes in with an incredible and unsustainable 103.8 PDO (a metric that measures luck). The Rangers shooting % is an off the charts 11.60%, which is almost twice as high as the following teams: Vancouver, New Jersey, Dallas, Boston, Ottawa, San Jose, Colorado, Anaheim, St. Louis and Florida, all of whom have a shooting percentage under 6.90%. That is just an indication of how lucky the Rangers have been.
The Rangers defeated the ?Canes on Tuesday to run their record to 16-8. They had 21 shots on net and trailed 2-0 after one but more luck combined with a bone-headed double minor by Ron Hainsey allowed the Rangers to take the lead. They were clearly outplayed and if you watched that game and bet the Rangers, you would have sold your ticket for 25 cents on the dollar after the first period. In successive games against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers were outshot 42-23 and 38-17 respectively. Only Arizona and Edmonton have surrendered more high quality scoring chances against than the Rangers. The Rangers are a beatable hockey team on their best day and they simply can?t keep winning when they are constantly getting outplayed.
The Sabres have had trouble scoring goals so one can only imagine the euphoria in that Sabres locker room after they went off for five goals against Ottawa on Tuesday in Jack Eichel?s return. 10 minutes into the first period and the Sabres had a 2-0 lead with Eichel figuring in on both goals. Now the Sabres will host the Rangers back in Buffalo feeling pretty good and with an added jump in their step. The Sabres should start trending in the right direction now. With a core that features Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhardt, Buffalo is perhaps the most under the radar squad in the league after the first quarter of the season. We?re not concerned in the least about Robin Lehner?s injury because Anders Nilsson has been very good in a backup role. At the end of the day, this market believes in the Rangers because of results over performance and that is something we are going to try and take advantage by constantly fading the Rangers when they?re overvalued like they are here.
Edmonton vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Edmonton
After a red-hot start which saw them go 8-1 in their first nine games, the Edmonton Oilers have definitely cooled off substantially in the last month. Edmonton is now essentially treading water at 12-12 on the season, while the Jets have a similar - if losing - 12-14 record coming into tonight. The biggest problem for the Jets coming into this critical Western Conference battle is their multiple injuries to key players. They will be very thin on their front line, especially at the left wing position as both Matthieu Perreault and Shawn Matthias are out tonight against a very talented Oilers' roster. The Oilers are on a three-game losing streak, but with a healthy offense that includes Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and the addition this season of Milan Lucic, this team is just too good not to turn it around. The road team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two clubs.
New Jersey vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The set-up: The 10-7-5 New Jersey Devils take on the 15-6-3 Chicago Blackhawks. The Devils have dropped five straight games away from home after Tuesday night's 3-2 loss to the Jets in Winnipeg, while the Blackhawks are back in Chicago for a second straight home game following two weeks on the road because of the circus.
New Jersey: The Devils couldn't bounce back from a two-goal deficit against the Jets, as the team dropped to 3-7-3 on the road this season. However, head coach John Hynes didn't question his team's effort. "I think it shows a resilient group," Hynes told reporters after the loss. "The thing is, you don't want to be down in games, chasing games, but I think the belief in how we play and that we can come back is important. That is also a part of the game where you have to have some belief, and we have that, but we'd like to put ourselves in situations where we have a lead more often than not."
Chicago: The Blackhawks slipped past the Florida Panthers 2-1 in a shootout on Tuesday night, the team?s first game at home since Nov. 13. Richard Panik netted a goal in regulation and another in the shootout for Chicago, which also received 38 saves from Corey Crawford in regulation and overtime before he stopped both Florida shots in the shootout.
The pick: While Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews could sit out his fourth straight game on Thursday, it has to feel good to be back home. Meanwhile, the road-weary Devils come in nearing the end of a stretch where 12 of their 16 games have been played away from home. The travel appears to be catching up with New Jersey, which has dropped three straight one-goal decisions and six of its last seven (1-4-2) following a five-game winning streak. Take the Blackhawks who are 9-1-2 at home this season.
Clippers vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -5
Cleveland needs to bounce back from its shocking 17-point loss at Milwaukee and will host an opponent in the Los Angeles Clippers, who are coming off a 127-122 double overtime loss at Brooklyn on Tuesday and playing their fifth road game in nine days. Also, the Cavaliers have won and covered the last four meetings and the Clippers are on a current three-game losing streak. The Clippers and Nets combined to miss 52 three-point shots while making only 26 in 78 attempts. Blake Griffin was rested and will be back in the lineup tonight, but the Clippers are 2-12 ATS their last 14 games in Cleveland. LeBron James scored 22 points and Kevin Love added 13 points and 13 rebounds, but the Cavaliers couldn't overcome the Bucks shooting 53.5 percent from the field. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall and Cleveland has covered five straight after a loss dating to last season.
Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
It's not often a team the caliber of LA, loses 3 in a row...especially when those are 'lowly' opponents like DET, IND, and BKN. I'd expect this team to really take tonight's game as seriously as possible. They're facing the World Champs, they're sliding a bit, and people are beginning to doubt LA as a real contender. Well, with the personalities they have on this squad (including the coach), I don't see how we don't get anything but max effort in this one. This is still the team with the 2nd ranked defense in the league a top-5 offense. I think we'll see a fun exciting game, which should be very close. I'll grab the points tonight.
Jazz -9.5
I actually think we are getting some value here with Utah, even at a line approaching double-digits. The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they come in having won 4 straight with all 4 wins by at least 9 points (3 of them by 18+). Miami is not a good team and are dealing with a number of injuries right now that make it near impossible for them to play well in the 2nd game of back-to-back sets. After playing last night in Denver, the Heat are primed for a major letdown here in Utah, as they just don't have the bodies to be competitive without fresh legs, as they aren't that talented. Utah should jump all over Miami right out of the gate and turn this into a blowout early.
Rockets/Warriors Over 231
The Key: This has the makings of being one of the highest scoring games of the young NBA season. These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. The Warriors are 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 114.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Rockets are 4th at 110.0 points per 100 possessions. Both teams prefer to play at a fast pace too, so this is going to see a ton of possessions. They also both love shooting the 3-ball as the Rockets shoot 37 per game at a 37.8% clip, while the Warriors shoot 32 per game at a 38.4% clip. Plenty of long rebounds will lead to easy buckets at the other end for both teams. The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games overall. The OVER is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games when playing on 2 days rest.
Mavs/Hornets Under 193.5
The Dallas Mavericks have been a mess this season at just 3-14 on the season. Their biggest problem has been their inability to get easy baskets. They still play solid defense, but offensively they can't get anything to come easy for them.
The Mavs rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 94.1 possessions per game. They certainly aren't doing much with those possessions as they rank 28th in offensive efficiency at 96.6 points per 100 possessions. They are averaging just 91.2 points per game on the season.
The biggest reason for the Hornets' turnaround over the past few seasons is that they've bought in to Steve Clifford and are playing defense. They rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. They should be able to shut down a Dallas team that is missing two of its best offensive weapons on Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Barea.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Charlotte. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 vs. Eastern Conference foes.
Sam Bradford's average attempt in loss to Lions traveled 3.5 yards beyond line of scrimmage. Tied for lowest avg target depth in a 2016 game
The problem right now is that the Minnesota offense is literally boxed-in; without a downfield threat defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage, which has also curtailed the ground game to the tune of just 2.8 per rush, a pace that will set NFL season records if it continues.
Item: But things might not be so easy for Dak Prescott either
One of the prime notions entering this season was whether the combination of one of the league?s best defenses, plus the debut of U.S. Bank Stadium, might lead to a special home field advantage for Minnesota, in particular the difficulties of opposing offenses to hear the snap counts. That has played out ? the Vikings are 4-1 at home, the only loss coming in OT after Detroit?s Matt Prater made a 58-yard field goal on the final play of regulation to extend it.
So let?s establish some perspective on how difficult it has been for opposing QBs to operate here, using Passer Rating as the measure:
2016 Passer Ratings
NFL Average 89.5
@Vikings 65.2
That is a significant gap, but it isn?t as though one or two games carried a lot of weight ? across the board opponents have struggled -
QB Season @Vikings
Rodgers 97.8 66.9
Manning 90.1 63.3
Osweiler* 72.2 56.1
Stafford 99.3 87.6
Palmer 83.3 63.3
Prescott has indeed been special in compiling his 108.6 rating. But to add perspective there, let?s look at the road defenses he has faced, using the current Football Outsiders adjusted charts -
Washington #26
San Francisco #29
Green Bay #17
Cleveland #32
Pittsburgh #11
That would make the average road opponent #23. Which makes this game worth coming back to in a moment, but first time to sort through a key matchup on the hardwoods?
In the Sights, NFL?
The status of Mike Zimmer, who had eye surgery on Wednesday night, is still not known as I write this, but because Zimmer has taken part in the Vikings practices this week, and has such a veteran group of assistants on hand, his absence will not be enough to keep me from playing #303 Minnesota (8:25 Eastern), with low-vig +3 easy to find, and also some reasonable +3.5 (you can get one of the latter for -115 in multiple Nevada shops this morning).
Naturally the Viking defense is a key here, the opportunity to get this class in this price range something that is rare, and that price indeed matters ? the Cowboys are being sold at premiums now. But for once the Minnesota offense can also work; while dink-and-dunk is going to be ineffective against much of the league, Dallas is vulnerable to just that.
The Cowboy defense has had a break this season because of both the quality and style of their own offense. They are both the best offense on the Football Outsiders charts, and also the slowest, at 29.6 SPS. So what does that combination mean? The defense does not have to be on the field much ? the Dallas defense has only faced 672 snaps, which is 37 fewer than league average. But they rate a dismal #27 in the Football Outsiders adjusted charts, and also #27 in yards per play allowed.
You can dink and dunk this bunch, which fits the current Minnesota offensive wheelhouse. The Cowboys are allowing 70.3 percent completions, only the Lions faring worse. Their interception percentage is 0.9, only the Jaguars and Colts worse. They are #30 in Sack rate, only the Raiders and Browns worse. They are #31 in yards per drive allowed, only the Colts worse.
That sets this up for the home team to be in the hunt to win outright to the final possession, which makes the points loom large, especially with Stefon Diggs back on the field, his absence possibly the difference-maker given how close last week?s loss at Detroit was. And while the Cowboys do get Barry Church back at safety, he is going to have to play with a soft cast as his broken forearm recovers, which can impact his play, while his replacement J.J. Wilcox will not be available. It would not be a surprise if Bradford had another 70+ percent night, possibly without any interceptions as well.
Dallas at Minnesota
Pick: Over 44
The 10-1 Cowboys have not lost since Week 1 of the season. Despite playing three games in 12 days, Dallas has shown no ill effects of the quick turnaround and defeated rival Washington 31-26 on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys have the NFL?s leading rusher, Ezekiel Elliott, and the league?s best rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott. Elliott has rushed for 1199 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Prescott has thrown for 2835 yards, 18 TDs, and just two interceptions. He has played with incredible poise and is a big reason why Dallas has the NFL?s best record.
Just over a month ago, the Vikings were 5-0 and on their way to a second-straight NFC North Division title. Then, the wheels came off the bus. All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson was lost for the season early and then it really came apart when both starting offensive tackles were lost for the season. Heading into Thursday night?s game, the Vikings have $30 million of their 2016 salary cap on injured reserve. The results, of course, have been devastating for Minnesota ? just one win in the last six games.
Now, they face the NFL?s best team in prime time. Dallas is second in the NFL in rushing, third in scoring offense, and tenth in scoring defense. The one thing the Cowboys are not good at is takeaways. No team has ever reached the Super Bowl averaging less than one takeaway per game. Dallas has 11 in 11 games.
7:05 PM NHL [54] Pittsburgh Penguins -175
8:05 PM NHL [64] Saint Louis Blues -135
8:35 PM NHL [68] Chicago Blackhawks -150
8:25 PM NFL [301] DAL COWBOYS -1-185 (B+2)
7:05 PM NBA [702] Charlotte Hornets -9.5 -150 (B+2)
10:35 PM NBA [3711] TOTAL o60.5 -110 (1Q Houston Rockets vrs 1Q Golden State Warriors)
3:50 AM SOC [204362] Melbourne Victory -165 over Perth Glory (AUSTRALIA - A LEAGUE soccer) - Dec 02
1 unit bet pays 85 ....betdsi line
TOTAL o60.5 -110 (1Q Houston Rockets vrs 1Q Golden State Warriors)
I scanned the box scores of last 10 games for these teams and this really stood out:
1-both teams average more points 1st quarter than any other quarter.
2-both average over 30 in 1st quarter, Houston's only low 1stQ was vs the #3 Memphis defense and a weird night Toro unexpectedly decided to play defense.
3-both teams give up a tons of points in 1st Q too....they seem to just love to start a game by running and gunning!
they also had a day off and now all those rested egos, ready to start running with a bang, will be spotlighted on national TV.
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The New York Rangers continue to play great hockey and that includes on the road, as they've won six of their last seven outside of New York. Nothing really changes with the Buffalo Sabres, as it's the same song and dance every night with this team. The Rangers have also used the Sabres as a punching bag over the years. You have to like the Rangers to stay hot and get an easy road victory.
The Senators have had a solid start to their year and I look for it to continue here vs a Flyers team that has been really inconsistent so far. The Flyers are just 4-6 on the road, while the Sens are 8-6 at home and the Sens have a nice edge in goal with Condon over Mason. The Flyers are just 8-23-5 in their last 36 trips to Ottawa and they are catching a team that is off a bad home loss. This situation does not set up well for the Flyers.
Going with the Blue Jackets in this one. They have been a solid team this year and the road team is 5-1 the last six in this series. The Jackets have struggled of late with consistency, but they will be looking for revenge following a 3-2 home loss to the Avs a few games ago. Colorado has lost their last three games in a row and they are just 4-7 at home for the year. Take Columbus in this one.
A 37-game non-conference home winning streak suggests that Iowa State has a good chance of avoiding a two-game losing streak. The team is ranked No. 19 in the AP poll and have now been ranked in a school-record 60 consecutive weeks?the third longest stretch in the nation behind Kansas and Arizona. An established offensive force at 88.8 points per game, the Cyclones have also turned the heat defensively and are limiting opponents to 64.8 points per outing on 35.6 percent shooting.
Los Angeles vs. Arizona
Pick: Los Angeles -148
Los Angeles has excellent balance and is playing well, winning five of the last six. L.A. lost last night but the deep Kings are 11-5 when playing on no days of rest. They face a bad Arizona team that is #25 in goals scored, #29 on the power play, #27 in goals allowed and #24 in penalty killing. The status of Oliver Ekman-Larsson remains up in the air because of an upper-body injury that forced the defenseman to exit Tuesday's game after two periods. Arizona is on an 8-17 run, as well as 23-58 against a team with a winning record.
New York at Buffalo
Play: New York
This line has dropped all morning line and is now in a very favorable price range for a Rangers club that is certainly the better team plus also playing with home loss revenge. Yes it was last season but April wasn?t that long ago and the Rangers lost to the Sabres 4-3 at Madison Square Garden in a game that New York #1 netminder Henrik Lundqvist got pulled early after allowing 3 goals on just 9 shots. You can bet (literally!) that Lundqvist and the Rangers will have revenge on their minds tonight and, even though they are off of a win over Carolina they also have another game with the Hurricanes on deck. That said, this game tonight is certainly the focal point for the Rangers in terms of their current scheduling situation. That said, when the Rangers are focused they are tough to beat and they also are catching the Sabres off of a big divisional win (5-4 over Ottawa) so it is a good spot to fade Buffalo. The Sabres, before their win over the Senators, had lost 8 of their 10 prior games. Buffalo, prior to the win over the Sens, had also been held to 2 goals or less in 12 of their last 13 games! That is significant here because the Rangers are the top ranked offense in the league at 3.67 goals per game while the Sabres are dead last at 1.95 goals per game so far this season. The drop in line here makes this one well worth the investment.
DETROIT +113 over Florida
OT included. The Red Wings are being greatly disrespected here. Who the f**k are the Panthers to be favored in Detroit? Florida is 11-12 and they?re also 4-7 against the top-16 teams in the league. The Panthers will play their third straight on the road and they haven?t won a game in regulation since November 19th when they defeated Ottawa but was outshot 40-23 and out-chanced 28-11. The game before defeating Ottawa, the Panthers lost in Toronto, 6-1. In five of their past seven games, the Panthers have scored two goals or less. They fire their coach and now they?re supposed to go on some sort of roll? The Panthers are so beatable and cannot be road chalk here.
This entire market is down on the Red Wings and has been since the beginning of the year. While some of it is warranted, most of it is not and we?re starting to take an interest in them because they?re so undervalued. The Red Wings have suffered from a lack of offense but don?t expect it to last much longer, as they?re loaded up front with speed and skill. Frans Nielsen has been playing great hockey. Dylan Larkin is not producing like last year but it?s only because of poor puck luck. Larkin is getting a ton of good looks but he?s just not burying them yet. Add Anthony Mantha, a good looking youngster, Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green and Justin Abdelkader to go along with Nielsen and Larkin and one can get a picture of how lethal this group can be. Detroit?s maligned defense is taking heat but they may be underrated too and appear to be getting better as the season wears on. Detroit defeated Dallas 3-1 in its last game. Previously, they played New Jersey and Montreal and outshot both of them by counts of 33-19 and 33-24 respectively. The Red Wings are not a contender, nor are they an upper echelon team but as a dog at home to this inferior invader, we would back them 100% of the time and make no exception here.
ST. LOUIS -? +116 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. There is no question that we underestimated the Blues before the season started. After a slow start, the Blue Notes are now second in the Central. Depth is such a weapon right now in the NHL and the Blues have it even after their offseason subtractions. The Blues are the best possession team in the NHL up to this point and when one guy gets cold, another one gets hot. The Blues have won six of seven with only loss over that span occurring against the Capitals. The Blues are healthy, they?re well rested and they?re in very good form at the moment.
By contrast, the Bolts have been nothing short of a mess but the market has not caught up to just how flawed they really are. There are long stretches every single game in which the Lightning cannot get the puck out of their own end. Against a team like St. Louis, that is going to take a toll on everyone. Only four teams, Arizona, Winnipeg, the Rangers and Dallas have had more face-offs in their own end than Tampa, which is further proof of its difficulty of moving the puck out. The loss of Steven Stamkos hurts big time. Defensemen Luke Witkowsk and Slater Koekkoek are being forced to play more minutes than they should be because Jason Garrison, Andrej Sustr Nikita Nesterov and even Victor Hedman are making so many bad decisions back there. To add to their misery, Ben Bishop is not getting as lucky anymore (we?ve been saying for two years how bad he truly is) with a sorry .902 save percentage and a league low .841 save percentage on the penalty kill. Lastly, the Bolts are 0-6 against top-10 teams and a league worst 1-9 against top-16 teams. When the Lightning do win, it is against the lower echelon teams in the NHL of which the Blues are not.
BUFFALO +119 over N.Y. Rangers
OT included. If you?re looking for overvalued teams that are in line for big regression, look no further than the Rangers. Here?s a team that is 26th in Corsi against per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play and that comes in with an incredible and unsustainable 103.8 PDO (a metric that measures luck). The Rangers shooting % is an off the charts 11.60%, which is almost twice as high as the following teams: Vancouver, New Jersey, Dallas, Boston, Ottawa, San Jose, Colorado, Anaheim, St. Louis and Florida, all of whom have a shooting percentage under 6.90%. That is just an indication of how lucky the Rangers have been.
The Rangers defeated the ?Canes on Tuesday to run their record to 16-8. They had 21 shots on net and trailed 2-0 after one but more luck combined with a bone-headed double minor by Ron Hainsey allowed the Rangers to take the lead. They were clearly outplayed and if you watched that game and bet the Rangers, you would have sold your ticket for 25 cents on the dollar after the first period. In successive games against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers were outshot 42-23 and 38-17 respectively. Only Arizona and Edmonton have surrendered more high quality scoring chances against than the Rangers. The Rangers are a beatable hockey team on their best day and they simply can?t keep winning when they are constantly getting outplayed.
The Sabres have had trouble scoring goals so one can only imagine the euphoria in that Sabres locker room after they went off for five goals against Ottawa on Tuesday in Jack Eichel?s return. 10 minutes into the first period and the Sabres had a 2-0 lead with Eichel figuring in on both goals. Now the Sabres will host the Rangers back in Buffalo feeling pretty good and with an added jump in their step. The Sabres should start trending in the right direction now. With a core that features Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhardt, Buffalo is perhaps the most under the radar squad in the league after the first quarter of the season. We?re not concerned in the least about Robin Lehner?s injury because Anders Nilsson has been very good in a backup role. At the end of the day, this market believes in the Rangers because of results over performance and that is something we are going to try and take advantage by constantly fading the Rangers when they?re overvalued like they are here.
Edmonton vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Edmonton
After a red-hot start which saw them go 8-1 in their first nine games, the Edmonton Oilers have definitely cooled off substantially in the last month. Edmonton is now essentially treading water at 12-12 on the season, while the Jets have a similar - if losing - 12-14 record coming into tonight. The biggest problem for the Jets coming into this critical Western Conference battle is their multiple injuries to key players. They will be very thin on their front line, especially at the left wing position as both Matthieu Perreault and Shawn Matthias are out tonight against a very talented Oilers' roster. The Oilers are on a three-game losing streak, but with a healthy offense that includes Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and the addition this season of Milan Lucic, this team is just too good not to turn it around. The road team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two clubs.
New Jersey vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
The set-up: The 10-7-5 New Jersey Devils take on the 15-6-3 Chicago Blackhawks. The Devils have dropped five straight games away from home after Tuesday night's 3-2 loss to the Jets in Winnipeg, while the Blackhawks are back in Chicago for a second straight home game following two weeks on the road because of the circus.
New Jersey: The Devils couldn't bounce back from a two-goal deficit against the Jets, as the team dropped to 3-7-3 on the road this season. However, head coach John Hynes didn't question his team's effort. "I think it shows a resilient group," Hynes told reporters after the loss. "The thing is, you don't want to be down in games, chasing games, but I think the belief in how we play and that we can come back is important. That is also a part of the game where you have to have some belief, and we have that, but we'd like to put ourselves in situations where we have a lead more often than not."
Chicago: The Blackhawks slipped past the Florida Panthers 2-1 in a shootout on Tuesday night, the team?s first game at home since Nov. 13. Richard Panik netted a goal in regulation and another in the shootout for Chicago, which also received 38 saves from Corey Crawford in regulation and overtime before he stopped both Florida shots in the shootout.
The pick: While Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews could sit out his fourth straight game on Thursday, it has to feel good to be back home. Meanwhile, the road-weary Devils come in nearing the end of a stretch where 12 of their 16 games have been played away from home. The travel appears to be catching up with New Jersey, which has dropped three straight one-goal decisions and six of its last seven (1-4-2) following a five-game winning streak. Take the Blackhawks who are 9-1-2 at home this season.
Clippers vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -5
Cleveland needs to bounce back from its shocking 17-point loss at Milwaukee and will host an opponent in the Los Angeles Clippers, who are coming off a 127-122 double overtime loss at Brooklyn on Tuesday and playing their fifth road game in nine days. Also, the Cavaliers have won and covered the last four meetings and the Clippers are on a current three-game losing streak. The Clippers and Nets combined to miss 52 three-point shots while making only 26 in 78 attempts. Blake Griffin was rested and will be back in the lineup tonight, but the Clippers are 2-12 ATS their last 14 games in Cleveland. LeBron James scored 22 points and Kevin Love added 13 points and 13 rebounds, but the Cavaliers couldn't overcome the Bucks shooting 53.5 percent from the field. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall and Cleveland has covered five straight after a loss dating to last season.
Los Angeles Clippers +3.5
It's not often a team the caliber of LA, loses 3 in a row...especially when those are 'lowly' opponents like DET, IND, and BKN. I'd expect this team to really take tonight's game as seriously as possible. They're facing the World Champs, they're sliding a bit, and people are beginning to doubt LA as a real contender. Well, with the personalities they have on this squad (including the coach), I don't see how we don't get anything but max effort in this one. This is still the team with the 2nd ranked defense in the league a top-5 offense. I think we'll see a fun exciting game, which should be very close. I'll grab the points tonight.
Jazz -9.5
I actually think we are getting some value here with Utah, even at a line approaching double-digits. The Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season right now, as they come in having won 4 straight with all 4 wins by at least 9 points (3 of them by 18+). Miami is not a good team and are dealing with a number of injuries right now that make it near impossible for them to play well in the 2nd game of back-to-back sets. After playing last night in Denver, the Heat are primed for a major letdown here in Utah, as they just don't have the bodies to be competitive without fresh legs, as they aren't that talented. Utah should jump all over Miami right out of the gate and turn this into a blowout early.
Rockets/Warriors Over 231
The Key: This has the makings of being one of the highest scoring games of the young NBA season. These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. The Warriors are 1st in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 114.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Rockets are 4th at 110.0 points per 100 possessions. Both teams prefer to play at a fast pace too, so this is going to see a ton of possessions. They also both love shooting the 3-ball as the Rockets shoot 37 per game at a 37.8% clip, while the Warriors shoot 32 per game at a 38.4% clip. Plenty of long rebounds will lead to easy buckets at the other end for both teams. The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games overall. The OVER is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games when playing on 2 days rest.
Mavs/Hornets Under 193.5
The Dallas Mavericks have been a mess this season at just 3-14 on the season. Their biggest problem has been their inability to get easy baskets. They still play solid defense, but offensively they can't get anything to come easy for them.
The Mavs rank 29th in the NBA in pace at 94.1 possessions per game. They certainly aren't doing much with those possessions as they rank 28th in offensive efficiency at 96.6 points per 100 possessions. They are averaging just 91.2 points per game on the season.
The biggest reason for the Hornets' turnaround over the past few seasons is that they've bought in to Steve Clifford and are playing defense. They rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. They should be able to shut down a Dallas team that is missing two of its best offensive weapons on Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Barea.
The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Charlotte. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavericks last 10 Thursday games. The UNDER is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 vs. Eastern Conference foes.
Sam Bradford's average attempt in loss to Lions traveled 3.5 yards beyond line of scrimmage. Tied for lowest avg target depth in a 2016 game
The problem right now is that the Minnesota offense is literally boxed-in; without a downfield threat defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage, which has also curtailed the ground game to the tune of just 2.8 per rush, a pace that will set NFL season records if it continues.
Item: But things might not be so easy for Dak Prescott either
One of the prime notions entering this season was whether the combination of one of the league?s best defenses, plus the debut of U.S. Bank Stadium, might lead to a special home field advantage for Minnesota, in particular the difficulties of opposing offenses to hear the snap counts. That has played out ? the Vikings are 4-1 at home, the only loss coming in OT after Detroit?s Matt Prater made a 58-yard field goal on the final play of regulation to extend it.
So let?s establish some perspective on how difficult it has been for opposing QBs to operate here, using Passer Rating as the measure:
2016 Passer Ratings
NFL Average 89.5
@Vikings 65.2
That is a significant gap, but it isn?t as though one or two games carried a lot of weight ? across the board opponents have struggled -
QB Season @Vikings
Rodgers 97.8 66.9
Manning 90.1 63.3
Osweiler* 72.2 56.1
Stafford 99.3 87.6
Palmer 83.3 63.3
Prescott has indeed been special in compiling his 108.6 rating. But to add perspective there, let?s look at the road defenses he has faced, using the current Football Outsiders adjusted charts -
Washington #26
San Francisco #29
Green Bay #17
Cleveland #32
Pittsburgh #11
That would make the average road opponent #23. Which makes this game worth coming back to in a moment, but first time to sort through a key matchup on the hardwoods?
In the Sights, NFL?
The status of Mike Zimmer, who had eye surgery on Wednesday night, is still not known as I write this, but because Zimmer has taken part in the Vikings practices this week, and has such a veteran group of assistants on hand, his absence will not be enough to keep me from playing #303 Minnesota (8:25 Eastern), with low-vig +3 easy to find, and also some reasonable +3.5 (you can get one of the latter for -115 in multiple Nevada shops this morning).
Naturally the Viking defense is a key here, the opportunity to get this class in this price range something that is rare, and that price indeed matters ? the Cowboys are being sold at premiums now. But for once the Minnesota offense can also work; while dink-and-dunk is going to be ineffective against much of the league, Dallas is vulnerable to just that.
The Cowboy defense has had a break this season because of both the quality and style of their own offense. They are both the best offense on the Football Outsiders charts, and also the slowest, at 29.6 SPS. So what does that combination mean? The defense does not have to be on the field much ? the Dallas defense has only faced 672 snaps, which is 37 fewer than league average. But they rate a dismal #27 in the Football Outsiders adjusted charts, and also #27 in yards per play allowed.
You can dink and dunk this bunch, which fits the current Minnesota offensive wheelhouse. The Cowboys are allowing 70.3 percent completions, only the Lions faring worse. Their interception percentage is 0.9, only the Jaguars and Colts worse. They are #30 in Sack rate, only the Raiders and Browns worse. They are #31 in yards per drive allowed, only the Colts worse.
That sets this up for the home team to be in the hunt to win outright to the final possession, which makes the points loom large, especially with Stefon Diggs back on the field, his absence possibly the difference-maker given how close last week?s loss at Detroit was. And while the Cowboys do get Barry Church back at safety, he is going to have to play with a soft cast as his broken forearm recovers, which can impact his play, while his replacement J.J. Wilcox will not be available. It would not be a surprise if Bradford had another 70+ percent night, possibly without any interceptions as well.
Dallas at Minnesota
Pick: Over 44
The 10-1 Cowboys have not lost since Week 1 of the season. Despite playing three games in 12 days, Dallas has shown no ill effects of the quick turnaround and defeated rival Washington 31-26 on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys have the NFL?s leading rusher, Ezekiel Elliott, and the league?s best rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott. Elliott has rushed for 1199 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Prescott has thrown for 2835 yards, 18 TDs, and just two interceptions. He has played with incredible poise and is a big reason why Dallas has the NFL?s best record.
Just over a month ago, the Vikings were 5-0 and on their way to a second-straight NFC North Division title. Then, the wheels came off the bus. All-Pro running back Adrian Peterson was lost for the season early and then it really came apart when both starting offensive tackles were lost for the season. Heading into Thursday night?s game, the Vikings have $30 million of their 2016 salary cap on injured reserve. The results, of course, have been devastating for Minnesota ? just one win in the last six games.
Now, they face the NFL?s best team in prime time. Dallas is second in the NFL in rushing, third in scoring offense, and tenth in scoring defense. The one thing the Cowboys are not good at is takeaways. No team has ever reached the Super Bowl averaging less than one takeaway per game. Dallas has 11 in 11 games.
