07:05 PM NBA [502] Washington Wizards -6-110
07:05 PM NBA [504] Toronto Raptors -9-110
08:05 PM NBA [506] TOTAL u204.5 -110 (Portland Trail Blazers vrs Memphis Grizzlies)
08:00 PM CBB [519] Iowa State -6.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [3] Colorado Avalanche +160
07:35 PM NHL [8] Montreal Canadiens -168
07:35 PM NHL [12] Tampa Bay Lightning -230
1 unit bet pays 78 ....betdsi line
Colorado Avalanche primed to end losing streak with Boston on back end of back-to-back, playing 3rd game in 4 nights, 3 games in 6...Calvin Pickard been sharp on the road of late, and should bounce back as usual from ugly last start....Avs are 5-6 on the road vs 4-8 at home....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Denver at Washington
Play: Washington -6
Washington hasn't played up to their potential for most of the season, and they're off a 124-116 loss to Orlando (we won with the Magic). But tonight they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," when Denver pays a visit. The Nuggets are playing in the second of back-to-back nights (2-5 ATS in this spot) and in their fourth game in six nights, overall. Making matters tougher, the Nuggets played their tails off in the fourth quarter in Brooklyn last night, pulling within two points inside 20 seconds left in the game before losing 116-111. We expect Denver to wear down in the fourth quarter tonight. As mentioned above, the Wizards lost last time out as a favorite and we note that Scott Brooks' coached teams are 69-39 ATS off a loss as a favorite. We expect a bounce back for his troops tonight.
Washington made the Magic, who was second last in the league in scoring offense entering the game, look like the Warriors on Tuesday night. In the process, star point guard John Wall called out his team for not playing hard.
Denver is likely going to be a bit worn down as this will be a third game in four nights for them on the road. Washington had Wednesday off to think about what Wall said regarding the team?s lack of effort in Tuesday?s game. How they respond goes a long way to determining how the rest of the season will play out for the Wizards. Playing at home, you have to give the edge to the Wizards as they find a way to grind out a victory.
Blazers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -130
The Portland Trail Blazers have played decent basketball lately, but this looks like a tough spot for the visitors at FedExForum Thursday night. They lost 115-107 at Milwaukee last night and this will be their third road game on the week. They'll face a Memphis Grizzlies team looking to revenge a 100-94 loss here about a month ago, and the Grizzlies are going for their fourth consecutive win following a 96-91 home victory over the 76ers Tuesday night.
Portland is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season and Memphis is 9-5 ATS when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
Nuggets vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -6
It looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the home side here, as Denver comes into this one disheartened after falling 116-111 in Brooklyn just last night. Washington should be the much ?hungrier? side this evening as it?s dropped three of its last four, including a listless 124-116 setback to Orlando at home last time out. Also note that Denver is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range.
Spurs at Bulls
Pick: Under
A high total as both teams can score, but don't overlook the defensive capabilities. San Antonio is No. 3 in the NBA in points allowed, while Chicago is No. 9. San Antonio has gone four straight games under the total. Chicago is home and the Bulls are 12-5 under the total after a loss, plus the Under is 12-5 in the Bulls last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
San Antonio vs. Chicago
Pick: San Antonio
The San Spurs can match an NBA record for consecutive road wins to start a season if they defeat the Chicago Bulls on Thursday night at the United Center. Just last season, the Golden State Warriors set the mark by going undefeated in their first 14 road games and the Spurs enter this contest a perfect 13-0 SU to open the current season. "It's hard to win an NBA game, especially on the road," reserve guard Patty Mills (11.2 PPG ranks 4th on the team in scoring) told Fox Sports Southwest after scoring 15 points in the Spurs' 105-91 win Tuesday at the Minnesota Timberwolves. "Maybe that extra focus, knowing that we're in another team's building and (they're) wanting to come out trying to beat us, there's that little bit of extra focus or energy or effort, whatever it may be. But we can't pinpoint (why) at the moment, and nor should we try to figure it out. Long season, I guess."
Chicago saw Rose and Noah depart to New York during the off season plus Pau Gasol now plays for the Spurs. Dwyane Wade (19.8-4.2-3.3) and Rajon Rondo (8.3-6.4-6.9) were brought in and Taj Gibson (12.0-8.0) elevated to a starter at PF to join team-leader Jimmy Butler (26.0-6.6-4.1). However, the ?new look? Bulls are coming off a 102-91 loss Tuesday at the Detroit Pistons, when they were outplayed in the fourth quarter after overcoming a 17-point deficit in the first half. They have lost three straight games, four of their past five and are just 3-6 since winning four straight from Nov 10-17. Chicago is 11-10 overall and hardly looks like a team capable of ending the Spurs? winning streak.
Pau Gasol played the past two seasons with the Bulls but signed with San Antonio as a free agent in the offseason. He has only missed one game and has averaged 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He?s part of a deep group of SA role players, who mesh well with team stars Leonard (24.5-5.9) and Aldridge (17.0-6.7). The Spurs are 8-4-1 ATS on the road, with an average winning margin of right about 10 points. Lay it with the road favorite.
Chicago Bulls +4
.
Pau-Pau-Pau is back in Chicago tonight, but it's not like he left on bad terms, so I don't see any added 'motivation' here. Sure, he'd like to play well back in Chi-town, but so will the other 9 players on the court with him. I think this is a perfect spot to fade the Spurs actually. Tonight marks their 3rd straight road game and their 10th out of the last 14. Additionally, none of their 4 home games during this time-span were consecutive, and just one-game stops, so this team truly has been on the road for a very long time. They'll get to enjoy a bit of an extended home stay after tonight, but overall this is not an easy spot for them. It'll be even more difficult playing without Parker, who will be missing his 2nd consecutive game. I forgot to mention that San Antonio is 13-1 during this stretch, which, while impressive, has got to be pretty grueling to keep up. It requires a lot of effort and focus to maintain such high level of intensity to win at this rate, which is exatly the opposite for the Bulls lately. This team is on a 3-game losing streak and 1-4 in the last 5. But, Chicago has been involved in two b2b (4 in 5 actually) spots, had Rondo suspended for one game, and recently came off a long grueling part of their schedule where they've played 11 of their 14 on the road. So while the losing streak is never a good thing, it's justifiable. More importantly, due to it, I'd expect an increased sense of urgency out of them tonight. No playoff-contender likes long losing streaks, and those types of teams typically make necessary adjustments to either their strategy or effort level (or both) to get back to winning ways. I expect that to happen to the Bulls tonight. They're getting McDermott back to bolster their bench, and I expect Butler/Wade to step up their games in this one.
BASKETBALL - 505 Memphis Grizzlies/Portland Trail Blazers under 205? -110 3U
Basketball - 507 Philadelphia 76ers +9 -110 - Another play I like for 2U
-Memphis slows the pace down at home. Avg 95.5 ppg at home and 100.6 on the road.
-12 home games and they are 10-2 against an U205.5, and that INCLUDES 2 OT games. Memphis also scores 96.9ppg coming off 1 day of rest, less than their 99.2ppg coming off a B2B, which is rather strange. They are coming off 1 day of rest today.
-Memphis is dead last in Pace and it's not even close.
-Last 5 home games were all under 205.5
Portland scores 108 ppg on the road, down from 112 at home. small sample size, but Portland averages 105ppg in B2B.
In their last 10 H2H matchups, an Under 205.5 would've been 7-3. Of those 10, 5 were played @ Memphis, and would've been 4-1 against an U205.5. The one game that was over? An OT game that had a whopping 218 total points.
Here's what sealed the deal for me. Of the past 10 H2H matchups, the average total score is 197.4. They actually average LESS @Portland (196.8 vs. 198). The Home and Away stats are nice and trend in our favor, but really, the H2H match up itself (regardless of location) speaks to how Memphis is able to control the tempo.
BOL!
Note:I am going to only post POTD if I feel there's at least a 65% chance of hitting. I put this at 70%.
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Does UTAH's injuries to Hayward, Hill, and Hood justify the jump from -5 to -10 for GS?
I had charted -6.5 as the opener, so not quite as extreme of a move, but note that those three are on top of Derrick Favors already having been out for a couple of weeks, so it becomes an extremely thin and punchless rotation.
Here is the tricky part - while some could call for a Golden State letdown off of the way they handled the Warriors, when you do the individual post-mortems it appears to be much different. Steph Curry was 0-8 from 3-point range, so he could easily bring a personal chip on his shoulder. Kevin Durant was 5-17 from the field, and could be classified the same way. The Warriors spread their minutes out well, and there is nothing special about a look-ahead to Memphis without Mike Conley on Saturday, so they may play better here than some might believe off of the Wednesday scoreboard result alone.
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops?
This part of the page has not been productive this week, but the pieces are in place to cash this evening at more than fair value with #519 Iowa State (8;00 Eastern), in the annual showdown vs. Iowa, -5 available in the Thursday morning trading (there is a little -4.5 floating about). The Cyclones come to Carver-Hawkeye Arena having won the last three in the series, and not only is the gap wider than it was in any of the previous encounters, but the experience gap is one of the widest of any early-season lined game.
Is ISU ready for the pressure of this showdown? Yes, both in terms of how the early schedule has allowed for development, and also the experience level for the spotlight. The Cyclones beat Miami F. by 17 and lost go Gonzaga by two in a pair of step-up challenges on neutral courts, and while there was a tough OT home loss to Cincinnati last week that was also good prep ? to hang with State you are going to need to be physically tough, and the Bearcats brought the tools to do it. Why does toughness matter so much? Let?s look at the top six in Steve Prohm?s rotation, listing six because they all play starters minutes ?
Player Class PPG
Monte Morris SR 14.6
Deonte Burton SR 14.1
Nazareth Mitrou-Long SR 12.8
Matt Thomas SR 11.3
Merrill Holden GR* 5.0
Darrell Bowie GR** 8.9
* - Graduated from Louisiana Tech
** - Graduated from Northern Illinois
That is so very rare to find on the college hardwoods these days, and the holdovers bring plenty of confidence, having been to the Sweet 16 last March. There may not be a more battle-tested PG in the nation than Morris.
Contrast this with Fran McCaffrey?s top six ?
Player Class PPG
Peter Jok SR 23.9
Ahmad Wagner SO 4.3
Tyler Cook FR 13.7
Jordan Bohanon FR 8.4
Isaiah Moss FR 6.4
Cordell Pemsi FR 10.6
That is quite a gap in experience, and I believe it will really show tonight in terms of rebounding and defense, the areas where toughness and team chemistry matter most. The Hawkeyes have had some hideous defensive performances in a loss here to Seton Hall (91-83), on a neutral vs. Memphis (100-92), and at Notre Dame (92-78), but the worst of all may be when Nebraska-Omaha came to this court and won 98-89. Two days later that same team went to Ames and lost to the Cyclones 91-47.
You shouldn?t put too much stock in that particular comparison ? Nebraska-Omaha was naturally primed for a letdown after beating the Hawkeyes, while that result also had ISU more than forewarned, but it does say a bit about the gap between these teams right now, a gap that is wider than the markets are projecting.
Vanderbilt vs. Middle Tennessee St.
Pick: Vanderbilt
While this is a road game for Vandy, it?s only about a 45 minute bus ride to Murfreesboro, Tennessee in this inner-state matchup. Middle Tennessee comes into this game riding high at 8-1 with their only loss to Tennessee State. This is the only common opponent so far this year between the two teams and Vanderbilt beat Tennessee State by 24 points which I will use as a piece of my handicap here. There are other handicap?s also for this game in our favor:
Middle Tennessee State does not shoot free throws well (61%) and they allow their opponents to get to the free throw line a lot. Vanderbilt is a good free throw shooting team at over 77% on the season. In a game that will be played at a slow pace, it could come down to free throws and Vandy has the big edge there.
Vanderbilt has a 7?1 NBA prospect in Frank Kornet who the NBA scouts have been watching. Riley LaChance is shooting 72% from the 3 point line and Matthew Fisher-Davis is shooting 44% from beyond the arc. All five starters can shoot the 3 ball and Middle Tennessee will struggle guarding the perimeter. Vanderbilt has a 53.9 percent field goal effectiveness which is the best that MTSU has faced yet. They haven?t faced a team like Vanderbilt that is so efficient at shooting the long ball.
While Middle Tennessee does have a solid trio of players in Jacorey Williams, Reggie Upshaw, and Giddy Potts, the rest of the team is not as polished. Vandy is a defensive minded team under coach Bryce Drew and they should be able to lock down the perimeter. MTSU has a couple of guys that have made some three?s this year, but a regression due from Simpson and Habersham.
Take the points tonight with Vandy as I see them building a lead in the first half and holding on to it by making free throws down the stretch.
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa St -4?
My own numbers make Iowa State 6.5 point favorites, and Im betting on the final score to be in that range or more, which makes taking the favorite at this number very acceptable from a wagering perspective. The difference maker will come inside the paint and in the rebound department. IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season.IOWA is 8-18 ATS L/26 versus top tier rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4 or more rebounds per game.
IOWA is 0-6 ATS L/6 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games SU/ATS which has just happened. HC Prohm of Iowa State is 10-2 ATS L/12 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.
College Hoops Home teams as an underdog or pick like Iowa - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are just 18-47 ATS L/65 dating back to 1997.
Southern Utah at Loyola Marymount
Play: Southern Utah +11
Loyola-Marymount's college basketball program is back on track under head coach Mike Dunlap, who welcomes back several starters and a plethora of experience.
Senior point guard Brandon Brown leads the team with 12.4 points per game and is in his second year under Dunlap's system after being voted JUCO Division II Player of the Year at Phoenix College in 2014.
Senior guard Buay Tuach is averaging 11.6 points per game on 53.5% shooting from the field and 47.1% from beyond the arc.
Loyola-Marymount's backcourt has excellent depth with UCF transfer Steven Haney, Jr. (9.6 ppg) and Iona transfer Kelvin Amayo (9.6 ppg), who arrived in Los Angeles for a sixth year of eligibility.
The Lions' frontcourt possesses tremendous size with 6-11 senior center Stefan Jovanovic (7.8 ppg) and 7-1 freshman Mattias Markusson (3.6 ppg).
The problem with backing the Lions as double-digit home favorites tonight is the fact that they are coming off a disheartening 1-point loss to Boise State in a game that was circled after last year's loss in Boise due to a blown call by the officials.
I also believe Southern Utah has a legitimate chance of pulling the upset under first year college basketball head coach Todd Simon, who has already changed the culture in Cedar City.
After suffering through three untenable seasons with a combined record of 14-70 versus Division I opponents, Southern Utah fired Nick Robinson (averaged 7.25 wins during his 4-year tenure) and brought in Simon. "We are going to win," Simon said over the summer. "I don't have any doubt in my mind , having lived with the players and being tight with all the players I recruited."
Southern Utah's offense is led by Texas Tech transfer Randy Onwuasor, who leads the team in both scoring (20.2 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg). The fifth-year senior also provides the Thunderbirds with much-needed leadership both on and off the court.
Returning starter James McGee, a redshirt junior who led the Big Sky Conference in free-throw percentage last year (.889), is second on the team in scoring with 13.1 points per game. Senior guard Race Parsons has fully recovered from the torn ACL he sustained last season and is third in scoring with 11.6 points per game.
The Thunderbirds' backcourt has excellent depth with senior John Marshall, who started sixteen games last season and is contributing 5.9 points in 23:53 minutes per game in 2016.
Southern Utah's frontcourt is inexperienced and remains the biggest issue for coach Simon. However, junior college transfer Christian Musoko, who won the NJCAA national title with Salt Lake Community College, has provided the physicality needed in the interior.
Additional height is provided by Croatian freshman Ivan Madunic, who is averaging 8.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. From a technical standpoint, Southern Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games, 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games off a loss and 6-2-2 ATS in its last ten games as an underdog.
In contrast, the Lions are a money-burning 18-39-3 ATS as home favorites, 15-35-2 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games laying points.
Finally, Loyola-Marymount's 66.2% free-throw percentage makes it difficult for coach Dunlap's squad to extend the margin late in the game.
Pacific vs. UMass
Play: UMass -8?
This one would seem to be a great spot for the underdog as UMASS is just 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 games at home, but looks can be deceiving. Pacific has been a dreadful team on the road this year as they have won exactly ZERO games away from home and must now fly from California all the way across the country to take on the Minutemen at the Mullins Center.
UMASS gets back star freshman point guard Dejon Jarreau who has been battling a knee problem but is listed as healthy with no limitations this week. Donte Clark also gives UMASS one of the better players in the country that you've never heard of, and they have better athletic talent and far better depth than Pacific. For Pacific, forward Ray Bowles is the only guy who could give UMASS problems, but other than him this is a tough matchup for the Tigers.
UMASS has beaten some tough teams recently including Temple and an underrated Harvard squad, while Pacific has not fared well at all against tougher opposition. Playing in a Tournament in front of their home fans with a potential matchup with Providence looming this weekend, we look for the Minutemen to cover the number here.
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS
PLAY: RAIDERS +3
Call it a lesson reinforced. I went against the Raiders this past Sunday, and while that play looked great into the third quarter as the Buffalo Bills amassed a 24-9 lead, it sure didn?t end very well. The lesson learned the hard way, and not for the first time in my career, is that stepping in front of an oncoming train is generally not a very good idea.
Analytics might suggest that the Raiders should not be 10-2. Unfortunately, the Raiders don?t give a rat?s behind about those analytics. They just keep winning games, and these last two have been impressive as hell, regardless of any metrics. Oakland allowed 25 straight points in turning a big lead into a likely loss against the Panthers. They got off the canvas, rallied and won the game. Then they had the huge explosion against the Bills last weekend in another game where defeat seemed probable.
The Chiefs are a tough as hell team to beat. They won?t wow many on the eye test, but go ahead and argue against the success they?ve been enjoying going back to the middle of last season. This team knows how to win football games. Andy Reid continues to get what I consider to be the absolute max out of a team that seems ordinary.
As for tonight, I don?t think it?s all that tough to make a case for either team. My lean to Oakland is mostly because they?re getting a field goal in a game I consider to be very much a tossup. I?ll therefore side with the Raiders plus the points, but again, this one won?t be on my card.
Oakland / Kansas City Under 46.5
These two teams are both coming off some high-scoring games. But this is a key rivalry game between these two teams fighting for the top of the AFC West. The first game between these two teams was a 26-10 Kansas City win. I think this will be an equally low-scoring game. The 'under' is 2-0 the last two times they have met and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings. Seven of the last eight meetings in Arrowhead have gone 'under'. The 'under' is 6-2 in Kansas City's last eight games and 7-3 in their last 10 games. I like the defenses to dominate this one and this one should stay 'under' the total.
The challenges in grading the Chiefs (and some of those grades have to be turned in before kickoff tonight)
I have been holding back on going into detail on Andy Reid and his 9-3 Chiefs this week, moving them from the Tuesday review to a focus spot here because there are a true grading challenge. Now time to roll up the sleeves because of that showdown vs. the Raiders, and also for ways to look at the fine print inside of football game flows as well.
Kansas City beat Atlanta 29-28 on Sunday despite having issues across several key dimensions of the sport. The defense allowed 32 first downs and 418 yards, at 6.3 per play. The offense struggled to run, Spencer Ware only managing 29 yards on his 14 attempts, though the stats look much different when a 55-yard scamper by Albert Wilson on a fake punt is included. And while Alex Smith had solid numbers next to his name, he only managed nine completions to WRs.
They won, of course, not because of the little things but by making some big plays ? Wilson?s TD, combined with the Pick Six and PAT return by Eric Berry, paved the way.
And that has been much of the story of the KC season. The Chiefs are a smart team, and have been that under Andy Reid. They don?t have great talent, but come close to maximizing what they do have by being fundamentally sound, and staying in games long enough to be able to make a play or two that can secure the scoreboard outcome. That helps to explain so many wins in which they were trailing in the fourth quarter, but we also have to deal with why they were trailing so many times late in the game to begin with.
The challenge begins when we start with the simplest of measures, which helps to set the difficulties in motion -
Chiefs Opp
Yards 4,030 4,619
1st Downs 229 263
Per Play 5.4 5.7
Rush 4.1 4.3
Pass 7.0 7.5
Per Drive 30.4 35.2
?O? TDs 23 27
It isn?t easy to get 9-3 out of that. If your opponents are not only compiling more yardage production, but also doing it more efficiently on a per-play basis, there are flaws, and in particular it takes something substantial to be 9-3 when you are -4 in offensive TDs. How bad is the yards per drive comparison? The Chiefs are #29, the three teams behind them being the 4-8 Rams, 0-12 Browns and 1-11 49ers. One part of the positive formula has been turnovers, where KC is +14, and in charting that properly it does go to being more design than luck. Smith and the offense throw a lot of safe passes, and when you have playmakers like Berry there can be an attack mode on defense. What they have done with the turnovers, and with special teams, also matters ?
Defense & Special Teams TDs
Chiefs 6
Opp 0
The turnover counts, and the TDs when the offense is not on the field, are difficult things to incorporate into a power rating, but to grade the Chiefs properly we have to factor them, and you can connect some of that back to the ?Productive Paranoia? that was discussed here with Jim Caldwell and the Lions on Tuesday. Essentially that is taking an aggressive approach based on what you have to work with, and that has been a part of the way that Reid has done things throughout his coaching career.
Some of the hidden numbers come from the offense not putting up gaudy stats, but in being efficient in what they do. Some of it can be a defense bending but not breaking, and making the occasional big play. And of course getting production from special teams would speak for itself, though that is something that is not easy to measure by only tracking box scores ? it requires diving into the play by play chart. And fortunately for that we have the Football Outsiders. One of the keys to the work those good folks do is in the grading of each play, in order to get closer to the truths of football efficiency.
Football Outsiders 2016 Chiefs
Overall #7
Offense #14
Defense #10
Special Teams #3
Note how drastically different those numbers are from the base stats, and how that steers towards what I believe is a truth ? given the totality of what they do, the Chiefs are a good team. They are 41-22 in all games under Reid, counting playoffs, and you can?t get to that level by merely being fortunate.
Yet the 2016 grading is such a challenge. While I do respect the way that KC does things, I believe those rallies to beat San Diego, Carolina and Denver were genuinely more a case of what the opponent did wrong in the end-game, rather than what the Chiefs did right. The credit to Kansas City goes in being close enough to take advantage of those mistakes and that is significant ? they have only lost by more than 10 points four times in those 63 games under Reid. There is absolutely something to be said for at least putting yourself into a position to win each week.
So how does all of this translate to Thursday night vs. Oakland? In truth, this game is sitting right where my numbers would put it, a weather factored Chiefs -3 -122 to be as precise as I can. So today?s exercise may not lead to anything actionable for this game, but it is a good way to put KC into perspective down the stretch, and to also develop a better understanding of team grading over time. The Chiefs are not going to look pretty to a lot of folks, but if beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the savvy handicapper wants to increase what those eyes see before making a final judgment.
Edmonton vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -130
Philadelphia has won six games in a row and I don't believe the Oilers are the team to stand in their way here.
Edmonton hasn't been playing its best hockey by any means, dropping its last two contests and five of its last seven games overall. The Oilers will face a tall task in trying to stop a Flyer squad that has gone 9-5-2 at home this season, and comes in playing its best hockey in quite some time.
The Oilers have taken three straight meetings in this series but these two teams haven't met since last March. I look for the red hot Flyers to turn the tide here.
Nashville vs. Dallas
Pick: Nashville -115
This is a good spot for Nashville. Forward James Neal returned from an injury after missing four games, and quickly scored a goal the last game. Nashville defeated the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Tuesday, making the Predators 9-4-1 over their past 14 games. Nashville is fifth in the NHL in goals scored, sixth on the power play and faces a banged up Dallas squad that has been a big disappointment. Dallas is #19 in the league in goals scored, #14 on the power play, #27 in penalty killing and dead last in goals allowed (3.2 per game). Dallas is 6-13 playing when playing on one day of rest. The Stars are coming off a 2-1 home loss to Calgary, and the team is 2-14 after allowing two goals or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh vs. Florida
Play: Pittsburgh -125
The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Florida to take on the Panthers on Thursday night. Pittsburgh is 16-10 SU overall this year while Florida comes in with a 12-15 SU overall record on the season. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this year after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is scoring 3.4 goals per game overall this year and 5.2 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Florida is scoring only 2.4 goals per game overall this year and 1.6 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the past 7 overall meetings over the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
07:05 PM NBA [504] Toronto Raptors -9-110
08:05 PM NBA [506] TOTAL u204.5 -110 (Portland Trail Blazers vrs Memphis Grizzlies)
08:00 PM CBB [519] Iowa State -6.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [3] Colorado Avalanche +160
07:35 PM NHL [8] Montreal Canadiens -168
07:35 PM NHL [12] Tampa Bay Lightning -230
1 unit bet pays 78 ....betdsi line
Colorado Avalanche primed to end losing streak with Boston on back end of back-to-back, playing 3rd game in 4 nights, 3 games in 6...Calvin Pickard been sharp on the road of late, and should bounce back as usual from ugly last start....Avs are 5-6 on the road vs 4-8 at home....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Denver at Washington
Play: Washington -6
Washington hasn't played up to their potential for most of the season, and they're off a 124-116 loss to Orlando (we won with the Magic). But tonight they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," when Denver pays a visit. The Nuggets are playing in the second of back-to-back nights (2-5 ATS in this spot) and in their fourth game in six nights, overall. Making matters tougher, the Nuggets played their tails off in the fourth quarter in Brooklyn last night, pulling within two points inside 20 seconds left in the game before losing 116-111. We expect Denver to wear down in the fourth quarter tonight. As mentioned above, the Wizards lost last time out as a favorite and we note that Scott Brooks' coached teams are 69-39 ATS off a loss as a favorite. We expect a bounce back for his troops tonight.
Washington made the Magic, who was second last in the league in scoring offense entering the game, look like the Warriors on Tuesday night. In the process, star point guard John Wall called out his team for not playing hard.
Denver is likely going to be a bit worn down as this will be a third game in four nights for them on the road. Washington had Wednesday off to think about what Wall said regarding the team?s lack of effort in Tuesday?s game. How they respond goes a long way to determining how the rest of the season will play out for the Wizards. Playing at home, you have to give the edge to the Wizards as they find a way to grind out a victory.
Blazers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -130
The Portland Trail Blazers have played decent basketball lately, but this looks like a tough spot for the visitors at FedExForum Thursday night. They lost 115-107 at Milwaukee last night and this will be their third road game on the week. They'll face a Memphis Grizzlies team looking to revenge a 100-94 loss here about a month ago, and the Grizzlies are going for their fourth consecutive win following a 96-91 home victory over the 76ers Tuesday night.
Portland is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog this season and Memphis is 9-5 ATS when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
Nuggets vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -6
It looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the home side here, as Denver comes into this one disheartened after falling 116-111 in Brooklyn just last night. Washington should be the much ?hungrier? side this evening as it?s dropped three of its last four, including a listless 124-116 setback to Orlando at home last time out. Also note that Denver is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range.
Spurs at Bulls
Pick: Under
A high total as both teams can score, but don't overlook the defensive capabilities. San Antonio is No. 3 in the NBA in points allowed, while Chicago is No. 9. San Antonio has gone four straight games under the total. Chicago is home and the Bulls are 12-5 under the total after a loss, plus the Under is 12-5 in the Bulls last 17 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
San Antonio vs. Chicago
Pick: San Antonio
The San Spurs can match an NBA record for consecutive road wins to start a season if they defeat the Chicago Bulls on Thursday night at the United Center. Just last season, the Golden State Warriors set the mark by going undefeated in their first 14 road games and the Spurs enter this contest a perfect 13-0 SU to open the current season. "It's hard to win an NBA game, especially on the road," reserve guard Patty Mills (11.2 PPG ranks 4th on the team in scoring) told Fox Sports Southwest after scoring 15 points in the Spurs' 105-91 win Tuesday at the Minnesota Timberwolves. "Maybe that extra focus, knowing that we're in another team's building and (they're) wanting to come out trying to beat us, there's that little bit of extra focus or energy or effort, whatever it may be. But we can't pinpoint (why) at the moment, and nor should we try to figure it out. Long season, I guess."
Chicago saw Rose and Noah depart to New York during the off season plus Pau Gasol now plays for the Spurs. Dwyane Wade (19.8-4.2-3.3) and Rajon Rondo (8.3-6.4-6.9) were brought in and Taj Gibson (12.0-8.0) elevated to a starter at PF to join team-leader Jimmy Butler (26.0-6.6-4.1). However, the ?new look? Bulls are coming off a 102-91 loss Tuesday at the Detroit Pistons, when they were outplayed in the fourth quarter after overcoming a 17-point deficit in the first half. They have lost three straight games, four of their past five and are just 3-6 since winning four straight from Nov 10-17. Chicago is 11-10 overall and hardly looks like a team capable of ending the Spurs? winning streak.
Pau Gasol played the past two seasons with the Bulls but signed with San Antonio as a free agent in the offseason. He has only missed one game and has averaged 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He?s part of a deep group of SA role players, who mesh well with team stars Leonard (24.5-5.9) and Aldridge (17.0-6.7). The Spurs are 8-4-1 ATS on the road, with an average winning margin of right about 10 points. Lay it with the road favorite.
Chicago Bulls +4
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Pau-Pau-Pau is back in Chicago tonight, but it's not like he left on bad terms, so I don't see any added 'motivation' here. Sure, he'd like to play well back in Chi-town, but so will the other 9 players on the court with him. I think this is a perfect spot to fade the Spurs actually. Tonight marks their 3rd straight road game and their 10th out of the last 14. Additionally, none of their 4 home games during this time-span were consecutive, and just one-game stops, so this team truly has been on the road for a very long time. They'll get to enjoy a bit of an extended home stay after tonight, but overall this is not an easy spot for them. It'll be even more difficult playing without Parker, who will be missing his 2nd consecutive game. I forgot to mention that San Antonio is 13-1 during this stretch, which, while impressive, has got to be pretty grueling to keep up. It requires a lot of effort and focus to maintain such high level of intensity to win at this rate, which is exatly the opposite for the Bulls lately. This team is on a 3-game losing streak and 1-4 in the last 5. But, Chicago has been involved in two b2b (4 in 5 actually) spots, had Rondo suspended for one game, and recently came off a long grueling part of their schedule where they've played 11 of their 14 on the road. So while the losing streak is never a good thing, it's justifiable. More importantly, due to it, I'd expect an increased sense of urgency out of them tonight. No playoff-contender likes long losing streaks, and those types of teams typically make necessary adjustments to either their strategy or effort level (or both) to get back to winning ways. I expect that to happen to the Bulls tonight. They're getting McDermott back to bolster their bench, and I expect Butler/Wade to step up their games in this one.
BASKETBALL - 505 Memphis Grizzlies/Portland Trail Blazers under 205? -110 3U
Basketball - 507 Philadelphia 76ers +9 -110 - Another play I like for 2U
-Memphis slows the pace down at home. Avg 95.5 ppg at home and 100.6 on the road.
-12 home games and they are 10-2 against an U205.5, and that INCLUDES 2 OT games. Memphis also scores 96.9ppg coming off 1 day of rest, less than their 99.2ppg coming off a B2B, which is rather strange. They are coming off 1 day of rest today.
-Memphis is dead last in Pace and it's not even close.
-Last 5 home games were all under 205.5
Portland scores 108 ppg on the road, down from 112 at home. small sample size, but Portland averages 105ppg in B2B.
In their last 10 H2H matchups, an Under 205.5 would've been 7-3. Of those 10, 5 were played @ Memphis, and would've been 4-1 against an U205.5. The one game that was over? An OT game that had a whopping 218 total points.
Here's what sealed the deal for me. Of the past 10 H2H matchups, the average total score is 197.4. They actually average LESS @Portland (196.8 vs. 198). The Home and Away stats are nice and trend in our favor, but really, the H2H match up itself (regardless of location) speaks to how Memphis is able to control the tempo.
BOL!
Note:I am going to only post POTD if I feel there's at least a 65% chance of hitting. I put this at 70%.
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Does UTAH's injuries to Hayward, Hill, and Hood justify the jump from -5 to -10 for GS?
I had charted -6.5 as the opener, so not quite as extreme of a move, but note that those three are on top of Derrick Favors already having been out for a couple of weeks, so it becomes an extremely thin and punchless rotation.
Here is the tricky part - while some could call for a Golden State letdown off of the way they handled the Warriors, when you do the individual post-mortems it appears to be much different. Steph Curry was 0-8 from 3-point range, so he could easily bring a personal chip on his shoulder. Kevin Durant was 5-17 from the field, and could be classified the same way. The Warriors spread their minutes out well, and there is nothing special about a look-ahead to Memphis without Mike Conley on Saturday, so they may play better here than some might believe off of the Wednesday scoreboard result alone.
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops?
This part of the page has not been productive this week, but the pieces are in place to cash this evening at more than fair value with #519 Iowa State (8;00 Eastern), in the annual showdown vs. Iowa, -5 available in the Thursday morning trading (there is a little -4.5 floating about). The Cyclones come to Carver-Hawkeye Arena having won the last three in the series, and not only is the gap wider than it was in any of the previous encounters, but the experience gap is one of the widest of any early-season lined game.
Is ISU ready for the pressure of this showdown? Yes, both in terms of how the early schedule has allowed for development, and also the experience level for the spotlight. The Cyclones beat Miami F. by 17 and lost go Gonzaga by two in a pair of step-up challenges on neutral courts, and while there was a tough OT home loss to Cincinnati last week that was also good prep ? to hang with State you are going to need to be physically tough, and the Bearcats brought the tools to do it. Why does toughness matter so much? Let?s look at the top six in Steve Prohm?s rotation, listing six because they all play starters minutes ?
Player Class PPG
Monte Morris SR 14.6
Deonte Burton SR 14.1
Nazareth Mitrou-Long SR 12.8
Matt Thomas SR 11.3
Merrill Holden GR* 5.0
Darrell Bowie GR** 8.9
* - Graduated from Louisiana Tech
** - Graduated from Northern Illinois
That is so very rare to find on the college hardwoods these days, and the holdovers bring plenty of confidence, having been to the Sweet 16 last March. There may not be a more battle-tested PG in the nation than Morris.
Contrast this with Fran McCaffrey?s top six ?
Player Class PPG
Peter Jok SR 23.9
Ahmad Wagner SO 4.3
Tyler Cook FR 13.7
Jordan Bohanon FR 8.4
Isaiah Moss FR 6.4
Cordell Pemsi FR 10.6
That is quite a gap in experience, and I believe it will really show tonight in terms of rebounding and defense, the areas where toughness and team chemistry matter most. The Hawkeyes have had some hideous defensive performances in a loss here to Seton Hall (91-83), on a neutral vs. Memphis (100-92), and at Notre Dame (92-78), but the worst of all may be when Nebraska-Omaha came to this court and won 98-89. Two days later that same team went to Ames and lost to the Cyclones 91-47.
You shouldn?t put too much stock in that particular comparison ? Nebraska-Omaha was naturally primed for a letdown after beating the Hawkeyes, while that result also had ISU more than forewarned, but it does say a bit about the gap between these teams right now, a gap that is wider than the markets are projecting.
Vanderbilt vs. Middle Tennessee St.
Pick: Vanderbilt
While this is a road game for Vandy, it?s only about a 45 minute bus ride to Murfreesboro, Tennessee in this inner-state matchup. Middle Tennessee comes into this game riding high at 8-1 with their only loss to Tennessee State. This is the only common opponent so far this year between the two teams and Vanderbilt beat Tennessee State by 24 points which I will use as a piece of my handicap here. There are other handicap?s also for this game in our favor:
Middle Tennessee State does not shoot free throws well (61%) and they allow their opponents to get to the free throw line a lot. Vanderbilt is a good free throw shooting team at over 77% on the season. In a game that will be played at a slow pace, it could come down to free throws and Vandy has the big edge there.
Vanderbilt has a 7?1 NBA prospect in Frank Kornet who the NBA scouts have been watching. Riley LaChance is shooting 72% from the 3 point line and Matthew Fisher-Davis is shooting 44% from beyond the arc. All five starters can shoot the 3 ball and Middle Tennessee will struggle guarding the perimeter. Vanderbilt has a 53.9 percent field goal effectiveness which is the best that MTSU has faced yet. They haven?t faced a team like Vanderbilt that is so efficient at shooting the long ball.
While Middle Tennessee does have a solid trio of players in Jacorey Williams, Reggie Upshaw, and Giddy Potts, the rest of the team is not as polished. Vandy is a defensive minded team under coach Bryce Drew and they should be able to lock down the perimeter. MTSU has a couple of guys that have made some three?s this year, but a regression due from Simpson and Habersham.
Take the points tonight with Vandy as I see them building a lead in the first half and holding on to it by making free throws down the stretch.
Iowa State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa St -4?
My own numbers make Iowa State 6.5 point favorites, and Im betting on the final score to be in that range or more, which makes taking the favorite at this number very acceptable from a wagering perspective. The difference maker will come inside the paint and in the rebound department. IOWA ST is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season.IOWA is 8-18 ATS L/26 versus top tier rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4 or more rebounds per game.
IOWA is 0-6 ATS L/6 after having lost 3 of their last 4 games SU/ATS which has just happened. HC Prohm of Iowa State is 10-2 ATS L/12 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.
College Hoops Home teams as an underdog or pick like Iowa - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are just 18-47 ATS L/65 dating back to 1997.
Southern Utah at Loyola Marymount
Play: Southern Utah +11
Loyola-Marymount's college basketball program is back on track under head coach Mike Dunlap, who welcomes back several starters and a plethora of experience.
Senior point guard Brandon Brown leads the team with 12.4 points per game and is in his second year under Dunlap's system after being voted JUCO Division II Player of the Year at Phoenix College in 2014.
Senior guard Buay Tuach is averaging 11.6 points per game on 53.5% shooting from the field and 47.1% from beyond the arc.
Loyola-Marymount's backcourt has excellent depth with UCF transfer Steven Haney, Jr. (9.6 ppg) and Iona transfer Kelvin Amayo (9.6 ppg), who arrived in Los Angeles for a sixth year of eligibility.
The Lions' frontcourt possesses tremendous size with 6-11 senior center Stefan Jovanovic (7.8 ppg) and 7-1 freshman Mattias Markusson (3.6 ppg).
The problem with backing the Lions as double-digit home favorites tonight is the fact that they are coming off a disheartening 1-point loss to Boise State in a game that was circled after last year's loss in Boise due to a blown call by the officials.
I also believe Southern Utah has a legitimate chance of pulling the upset under first year college basketball head coach Todd Simon, who has already changed the culture in Cedar City.
After suffering through three untenable seasons with a combined record of 14-70 versus Division I opponents, Southern Utah fired Nick Robinson (averaged 7.25 wins during his 4-year tenure) and brought in Simon. "We are going to win," Simon said over the summer. "I don't have any doubt in my mind , having lived with the players and being tight with all the players I recruited."
Southern Utah's offense is led by Texas Tech transfer Randy Onwuasor, who leads the team in both scoring (20.2 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg). The fifth-year senior also provides the Thunderbirds with much-needed leadership both on and off the court.
Returning starter James McGee, a redshirt junior who led the Big Sky Conference in free-throw percentage last year (.889), is second on the team in scoring with 13.1 points per game. Senior guard Race Parsons has fully recovered from the torn ACL he sustained last season and is third in scoring with 11.6 points per game.
The Thunderbirds' backcourt has excellent depth with senior John Marshall, who started sixteen games last season and is contributing 5.9 points in 23:53 minutes per game in 2016.
Southern Utah's frontcourt is inexperienced and remains the biggest issue for coach Simon. However, junior college transfer Christian Musoko, who won the NJCAA national title with Salt Lake Community College, has provided the physicality needed in the interior.
Additional height is provided by Croatian freshman Ivan Madunic, who is averaging 8.1 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. From a technical standpoint, Southern Utah is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games, 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games off a loss and 6-2-2 ATS in its last ten games as an underdog.
In contrast, the Lions are a money-burning 18-39-3 ATS as home favorites, 15-35-2 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games laying points.
Finally, Loyola-Marymount's 66.2% free-throw percentage makes it difficult for coach Dunlap's squad to extend the margin late in the game.
Pacific vs. UMass
Play: UMass -8?
This one would seem to be a great spot for the underdog as UMASS is just 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 games at home, but looks can be deceiving. Pacific has been a dreadful team on the road this year as they have won exactly ZERO games away from home and must now fly from California all the way across the country to take on the Minutemen at the Mullins Center.
UMASS gets back star freshman point guard Dejon Jarreau who has been battling a knee problem but is listed as healthy with no limitations this week. Donte Clark also gives UMASS one of the better players in the country that you've never heard of, and they have better athletic talent and far better depth than Pacific. For Pacific, forward Ray Bowles is the only guy who could give UMASS problems, but other than him this is a tough matchup for the Tigers.
UMASS has beaten some tough teams recently including Temple and an underrated Harvard squad, while Pacific has not fared well at all against tougher opposition. Playing in a Tournament in front of their home fans with a potential matchup with Providence looming this weekend, we look for the Minutemen to cover the number here.
RAIDERS AT CHIEFS
PLAY: RAIDERS +3
Call it a lesson reinforced. I went against the Raiders this past Sunday, and while that play looked great into the third quarter as the Buffalo Bills amassed a 24-9 lead, it sure didn?t end very well. The lesson learned the hard way, and not for the first time in my career, is that stepping in front of an oncoming train is generally not a very good idea.
Analytics might suggest that the Raiders should not be 10-2. Unfortunately, the Raiders don?t give a rat?s behind about those analytics. They just keep winning games, and these last two have been impressive as hell, regardless of any metrics. Oakland allowed 25 straight points in turning a big lead into a likely loss against the Panthers. They got off the canvas, rallied and won the game. Then they had the huge explosion against the Bills last weekend in another game where defeat seemed probable.
The Chiefs are a tough as hell team to beat. They won?t wow many on the eye test, but go ahead and argue against the success they?ve been enjoying going back to the middle of last season. This team knows how to win football games. Andy Reid continues to get what I consider to be the absolute max out of a team that seems ordinary.
As for tonight, I don?t think it?s all that tough to make a case for either team. My lean to Oakland is mostly because they?re getting a field goal in a game I consider to be very much a tossup. I?ll therefore side with the Raiders plus the points, but again, this one won?t be on my card.
Oakland / Kansas City Under 46.5
These two teams are both coming off some high-scoring games. But this is a key rivalry game between these two teams fighting for the top of the AFC West. The first game between these two teams was a 26-10 Kansas City win. I think this will be an equally low-scoring game. The 'under' is 2-0 the last two times they have met and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings. Seven of the last eight meetings in Arrowhead have gone 'under'. The 'under' is 6-2 in Kansas City's last eight games and 7-3 in their last 10 games. I like the defenses to dominate this one and this one should stay 'under' the total.
The challenges in grading the Chiefs (and some of those grades have to be turned in before kickoff tonight)
I have been holding back on going into detail on Andy Reid and his 9-3 Chiefs this week, moving them from the Tuesday review to a focus spot here because there are a true grading challenge. Now time to roll up the sleeves because of that showdown vs. the Raiders, and also for ways to look at the fine print inside of football game flows as well.
Kansas City beat Atlanta 29-28 on Sunday despite having issues across several key dimensions of the sport. The defense allowed 32 first downs and 418 yards, at 6.3 per play. The offense struggled to run, Spencer Ware only managing 29 yards on his 14 attempts, though the stats look much different when a 55-yard scamper by Albert Wilson on a fake punt is included. And while Alex Smith had solid numbers next to his name, he only managed nine completions to WRs.
They won, of course, not because of the little things but by making some big plays ? Wilson?s TD, combined with the Pick Six and PAT return by Eric Berry, paved the way.
And that has been much of the story of the KC season. The Chiefs are a smart team, and have been that under Andy Reid. They don?t have great talent, but come close to maximizing what they do have by being fundamentally sound, and staying in games long enough to be able to make a play or two that can secure the scoreboard outcome. That helps to explain so many wins in which they were trailing in the fourth quarter, but we also have to deal with why they were trailing so many times late in the game to begin with.
The challenge begins when we start with the simplest of measures, which helps to set the difficulties in motion -
Chiefs Opp
Yards 4,030 4,619
1st Downs 229 263
Per Play 5.4 5.7
Rush 4.1 4.3
Pass 7.0 7.5
Per Drive 30.4 35.2
?O? TDs 23 27
It isn?t easy to get 9-3 out of that. If your opponents are not only compiling more yardage production, but also doing it more efficiently on a per-play basis, there are flaws, and in particular it takes something substantial to be 9-3 when you are -4 in offensive TDs. How bad is the yards per drive comparison? The Chiefs are #29, the three teams behind them being the 4-8 Rams, 0-12 Browns and 1-11 49ers. One part of the positive formula has been turnovers, where KC is +14, and in charting that properly it does go to being more design than luck. Smith and the offense throw a lot of safe passes, and when you have playmakers like Berry there can be an attack mode on defense. What they have done with the turnovers, and with special teams, also matters ?
Defense & Special Teams TDs
Chiefs 6
Opp 0
The turnover counts, and the TDs when the offense is not on the field, are difficult things to incorporate into a power rating, but to grade the Chiefs properly we have to factor them, and you can connect some of that back to the ?Productive Paranoia? that was discussed here with Jim Caldwell and the Lions on Tuesday. Essentially that is taking an aggressive approach based on what you have to work with, and that has been a part of the way that Reid has done things throughout his coaching career.
Some of the hidden numbers come from the offense not putting up gaudy stats, but in being efficient in what they do. Some of it can be a defense bending but not breaking, and making the occasional big play. And of course getting production from special teams would speak for itself, though that is something that is not easy to measure by only tracking box scores ? it requires diving into the play by play chart. And fortunately for that we have the Football Outsiders. One of the keys to the work those good folks do is in the grading of each play, in order to get closer to the truths of football efficiency.
Football Outsiders 2016 Chiefs
Overall #7
Offense #14
Defense #10
Special Teams #3
Note how drastically different those numbers are from the base stats, and how that steers towards what I believe is a truth ? given the totality of what they do, the Chiefs are a good team. They are 41-22 in all games under Reid, counting playoffs, and you can?t get to that level by merely being fortunate.
Yet the 2016 grading is such a challenge. While I do respect the way that KC does things, I believe those rallies to beat San Diego, Carolina and Denver were genuinely more a case of what the opponent did wrong in the end-game, rather than what the Chiefs did right. The credit to Kansas City goes in being close enough to take advantage of those mistakes and that is significant ? they have only lost by more than 10 points four times in those 63 games under Reid. There is absolutely something to be said for at least putting yourself into a position to win each week.
So how does all of this translate to Thursday night vs. Oakland? In truth, this game is sitting right where my numbers would put it, a weather factored Chiefs -3 -122 to be as precise as I can. So today?s exercise may not lead to anything actionable for this game, but it is a good way to put KC into perspective down the stretch, and to also develop a better understanding of team grading over time. The Chiefs are not going to look pretty to a lot of folks, but if beauty is in the eye of the beholder, the savvy handicapper wants to increase what those eyes see before making a final judgment.
Edmonton vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -130
Philadelphia has won six games in a row and I don't believe the Oilers are the team to stand in their way here.
Edmonton hasn't been playing its best hockey by any means, dropping its last two contests and five of its last seven games overall. The Oilers will face a tall task in trying to stop a Flyer squad that has gone 9-5-2 at home this season, and comes in playing its best hockey in quite some time.
The Oilers have taken three straight meetings in this series but these two teams haven't met since last March. I look for the red hot Flyers to turn the tide here.
Nashville vs. Dallas
Pick: Nashville -115
This is a good spot for Nashville. Forward James Neal returned from an injury after missing four games, and quickly scored a goal the last game. Nashville defeated the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 Tuesday, making the Predators 9-4-1 over their past 14 games. Nashville is fifth in the NHL in goals scored, sixth on the power play and faces a banged up Dallas squad that has been a big disappointment. Dallas is #19 in the league in goals scored, #14 on the power play, #27 in penalty killing and dead last in goals allowed (3.2 per game). Dallas is 6-13 playing when playing on one day of rest. The Stars are coming off a 2-1 home loss to Calgary, and the team is 2-14 after allowing two goals or less in their previous game.
Pittsburgh vs. Florida
Play: Pittsburgh -125
The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Florida to take on the Panthers on Thursday night. Pittsburgh is 16-10 SU overall this year while Florida comes in with a 12-15 SU overall record on the season. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this year after allowing 4 goals or more in their previous game. Pittsburgh is scoring 3.4 goals per game overall this year and 5.2 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Florida is scoring only 2.4 goals per game overall this year and 1.6 goals per game their past 5 games overall. Pittsburgh has won 5 of the past 7 overall meetings over the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
