07:35 PM NHL [53] TOTAL o5.5 -110 (New York Rangers vrs Buffalo Sabres)
07:35 PM NHL [56] Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +200
09:05 PM NHL [58] Saint Louis Blues -1.5 +225
08:35 PM NHL [61] TOTAL o6-120 (Winnipeg Jets vrs Dallas Stars)
09:05 PM NHL [63] Chicago Blackhawks -160
10:05 PM NHL [65] San Jose Sharks -145
07:05 PM NBA [702] Washington Wizards -11-110
07:00 PM CBB [722] Towson -11-110
11:00 PM CBB [759] Gonzaga -10-110
1 unit bet pays 650 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Toronto at St. Louis
Play:St. Louis -120
The St. Louis Blues relieved head coach Ken Hitchcock of his duties following a lethargic 5-3 home loss to the Winnipeg Jets. St. Louis has been playing mediocre hockey for the better part of the last month including a recent 1-5 slide. Most of the problems had little to do with coaching but rather a lack of effort and intensity. Lack of a consistent puck stopper in net, particularly Jake Allen, also contributed. Former Minnesota head coach Mike Yeo will take over behind the bench. He was slated to take over as head coach next season after Ken Hitchcock?s retirement but that process has been sped up. I expect the typical ?step up? effort from St. Louis following the coaching change which is a common occurrence in the NHL. Look no further than the NY Islanders who have gone 5-0-1 since dismissing head coach Jack Capuano. Toronto is coming off their own bad performance in a 6-3 loss in Dallas on Tuesday. The defense has certainly had some problems since the injury to their top blue liner Morgan Rielly. Replacing his minutes on the ice and impact on the game in all situations has been something the Leafs have had a difficult time figuring out. The Leafs have improved significantly this season but they are going through a bit of a rough patch; 2-4 in their last six games and the only two wins came against slumping Detroit and Calgary. The spot and price is right to back St. Louis tonight as a small home favorite.
Now, those players Armstrong is disgruntled with are going to have to prove they belong to stay, as coach Mike Yeo starts a new era on the bench.
I know the Blues have lost five of their last six games, including their four home games in regulation. But since they're involved in a tight race for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference, sitting three points out of third in the Central Division, I have to believe we may see their best overall performance in a month, tonight against Toronto, which is in off a 6-3 loss in Dallas on Tuesday night.
Your free winner is on the St. Louis Blues, as they'll have an entirely different attitude tonight - a winning one.
TAMPA BAY -1? +215 over Ottawa
The Senators blew a 4-2 lead in Florida and Mike Condon was horrible in a 5-4 loss in their first game back after the break. That?s just one game and we?re not going to put a lot of weight on one loss, especially since the Sens have bounced back nicely from poor efforts all year long. However, it?s now crunch time and this is the time of year that the cream rises to the top. In that regard, Ottawa is not the cream of the crop or even close to it. The Senators are a dangerous team because of their ability to find the back of the net but it?s every other area that is a major concern. The Sens Corsi For % is 47.91% (25th), which is in the same territory as the Avalanche, Sabres, Devils, and Coyotes. What that means is that Ottawa is playing without the puck far too often to be a top-10 team and therefore attrition is inevitable. They are not a top-10 team.
Tampa Bay has not played well recently. Including Tuesday?s loss to Boston, the Lightning have a 3-5-2 record over their last 10 games. They?ve only managed to score 23 goals while allowing 29. Compare that to how Ottawa has been over their past 10 and you?ll see that they have nearly doubled the Bolts in scoring while allowing one less goal. Thing is, the Bolts are playing so much better than their record indicates while the Sens are playing worse. Tampa?s problems all stem from Ben Bishop being one of the NHL?s worst goaltenders (something we warned you about before). You see, soft goals are deflating. They take away the hard work that the players were putting in up to that point and it?s just so hard to rebound from a bad goal or get one?s intensity back. Ben Bishop has been horrible and the rumors are that he?s on the block. The Bolts will now sit him because if they play him and he?s bad, his trade value goes down. Enter Andrei Vasilevskiy, the goaltender that almost single handily knocked the Penguins out of the playoffs last year in a seven-game series after Bishop was hurt early in Game 1.
The Lightning can still score in the top half of the league, scoring 139 goals (13th) and maintaining a top 10 power play at 22.3% (6th). Tampa still plays a strong possession game, managing a 50.94% Corsi For % (10th) and they have done that with several key players missing significant time. Steven Stamkos is still out but the Lightning are otherwise healthier now than they have been all year. Tampa?s third line of Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point would be a top line on many teams in this league. This is a deep and talented team that has suffered the effects of poor goaltending but that part of their troubles may now be over. If Tampa has a run in them, it will start right here and we absolutely trust that they do.
DALLAS -1? +220 over Winnipeg
The Stars 6-3 victory over the Maple Leafs may look pretty on paper but it was anything but. Dallas scored early and often and knocked out Fredrick Andersen in the first period by scoring three times on its first eight shots. Dallas would go on to get outshot in that game, 43-20. However, they did have a 5-1 lead and the closest Toronto ever came within was three goals so Dallas was not in attack mode. It was a much-needed positive start to the second half for Dallas, who now sit just three points back of the final Wild Card spot. At the moment, the Stars and Jets are deadlocked at 52 points apiece. While the Stars have two games in hand, tonight?s game will help determine a lot in the standings. There are currently six teams fighting for the final two playoff spots in the West and the Stars and Jets are the two currently dwelling in the cellar. The last time the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets squared off, the Jets walked away with a crushing 8-2 victory. That came back on November 8. There should definitely be some bad blood brewing but one thing is for sure: this game is going to be an enthralling one to watch and will have some pretty drastic consequences for the loser. The question now becomes, which team can take the heat and rise to the occasion?
We have to trust the Stars more because we have seen this act far too often from the Jets. When the spotlight is brightest, Winnipeg takes five steps backward. Yes indeed the Jets have won two straight and scored five times both games but the last time they won three straight was last season. That?s right, the Jets have yet to win three straight games this entire year but it gets even worse. The Jets are 0-14 this season against top-10 competition. While the Stars are not a top-10 team, Winnipeg?s record against the best reveals that when the going gets tough, they seldom show up. This is a massive game and the Jets? desperate move to call up third stringer Andrej Pavelec has yet to backfire. It?s inevitable that Pavelec and this strategy will implode soon enough. Pavelec comes in with a weak .893 save percentage but it?s been masked by some Jets' victories. After getting whacked by Winnipeg in embarrassing fashion 2? months ago, there is no way that the Stars don?t show up here in this important home game.
Montreal at Philadelphia - home team is 22-5 the last 27 in the series
The Rangers are 16-5 in their last 21 road games and 8-3 in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest..The Rangers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Buffalo and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall with Buffalo.
Buffalo averaged 2.14 goals per game in October, November, and December combined, and then jumped to 3.23 game in January. That 1.09 jump was the third-biggest in the league behind Washington (+1.59) and Winnipeg (+1.12). The Rangers dropped from 3.41 to 3.27 in the same span.
Over is 12-3-1 in Jets last 16 overall.
Over is 6-1 in Stars last 7 home games.
Over is 7-3 in Stars last 10 meetings with Jets.
Hawaii +3.5
Not gonna read much into Hawaii blowout win over UCSB, as the Gauchos are absolutely terrible. But while they aren't good, i think Hawaii could show some improvement down the stretch, as the youth on this team matures a bit. Riverside surprisingly won four straight but that ended last game against Northridge, and I'm of the opinion the Highlanders are more likely to begin reverting to their seemingly eternal mediocre form. Figures pretty close the way I see it, but I like the revenge motive and getting more than one possession is enough to get me on Hawaii.
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers finally ended their 5-game losing streak with an upset home victory over Purdue as 7-point dogs on Sunday. Now the Huskers are clearly in a letdown spot off their biggest win of the season. I think they are running into Michigan State at the wrong time as the Spartans always improve as the season goes on under Tom Izzo, and they're coming off a solid 70-62 home victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans are going to be a dangerous team moving forward and they should not be dogs here. They can't afford losses after their poor start against a brutal schedule, and they won't be taking Nebraska lightly after losing the past two meetings with the Huskers by a combined 3 points. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. The Huskers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last 2 seasons.
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
Michigan State has a history under Tom Izzo of starting to peak once the second half of the season gets rolling. I see a buy sign now on the 13-9 Spartans after their 70-62 home win against Michigan this past Sunday. It's not too much to ask the Spartans to defeat Nebraska, which is a game under .500 both in the Big Ten and overall. The Spartans are the stronger defensive team, more athletic and have better outside shooters than the Cornhuskers. Michigan State is shooting 47.5 percent from the floor while Nebraska is shooting 42.3 percent from the field. Nebraska is in a letdown spot after snapping a five-game losing streak with a stunning 83-80 home victory against 20th-ranked Purdue this past Sunday. The Spartans have triple revenge and are the healthier team. The Cornhuskers have been without their third-leading scorer forward Ed Morrow for the past five games due to a stress reaction in his right foot. Guard Tai Webster, the team's top scorer, rolled an ankle against Purdue and center Jordy Tshimanga is battling the flu. There's a chance all three could play, but how effective would they be? The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and 17-6 ATS during their last 23 Big Ten games. Nebraska has failed to cover in six of its last eight home contests. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover opened this month with an easy winner backing underdog Florida State against Miami on Wednesday. The Seminoles won by 18 points.
Marshall (-8 ) over Southern Mississippi
We hit with Marshall last week. Let's go to the well until the well is dry. Marshall is coming off its worst game of the year, a pathetic 23-point loss as a 13-point favorite against UTEP last Saturday. This Marshall team had been showing some serious signs of life in the CUSA race before that came crashing down on them. However, I think the Thundering Herd will be able to rebound here against lowly Southern Miss. Marshall has had some moments on the road this year, including near-misses against Cincinnati and Pitt as well as easy double-digit league wins against FAU and FIU. They should be able to do the same against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are No. 347 in the country in scoring, No. 339 in shooting (they make just 39.1 percent of their shots), and No. 343 in 3-point shooting (28.8 percent as a team). Quite simply, this team can't score enough to keep up with Marshall's high-octane offense. And it is not as if Southern Miss is some slow-down, solid defensive grinder. They play at a pretty medium tempo, and their defense doesn't rank higher than No. 161 in any major category. Marshall is a solid 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games, and they've only lost back-to-back games at the window one time all year. I think they will overpower the Golden Eagles here.
CAL POLY -1 over UC Davis
This situation conforms to what we normally like to target overall. If you recall, last week we were in on UC Davis as an outright dog when they hosted cross-state rival UC Irvine and pulled off the upset against the Anteaters. Entering the game, the two were locked in a draw for the Big West lead but Irvine was the team that many bracketologists had given the nod to be the prognosticated representative in the Men?s Basketball Tournament in March. Furthermore, many pundits are now hopping aboard the Aggie bandwagon and calling for Davis to be the #16 seed in the Big Dance as opposed to Irvine a week ago. Our position remains to hop off teams when most are hopping on.
Davis has not taken the court since this win, so we have yet to see if this team is truly prone for a hangover after pulling off a tremendous win against the conference frontrunner. Results of this caliber often yield an overreaction and set up teams like Davis for a huge letdown in their follow up. We are not advocates of laying road points in a conference as weak as the Big West and Cal Poly in particular reinforces our stance, as they defeated Irvine by thirteen-points as a thirteen-point home pup in the game previous to Irvine?s encounter with Davis. This incident served as prime rationale for us to target Irvine with Davis.
Now Davis sports the target on their back when just a week ago they were the predator. Cal Poly remains a lowly 6-15 team nestled in the lower tier of the Big West. They will enter this contest with nothing to lose but exuberant at the chance to wrestle with one of the big dogs of this league on their own court. They have the proven ability to defeat these teams outright too. Davis and Cal Poly have already met once this year on Davis? court but the Aggies were on the come-up and even then they were spotting more points than required to the Mustangs, as they won 68-64 although they were favored by seven. Davis is now the new big kid on the block, as they are in the pole position but we have yet to see how they handle this position. On Groundhog?s Day, UC Davis may very well see their shadow and stumble into a trap as a result.
NOTE: We suspect this line will move and Davis may be favored later in the day, thus, we'll hold off until later and wait for a better number. We will update this later, as to whether it's an offical play or not and tweet it out when we do.
Gonzaga Bulldogs @ BYU Cougars
Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs -8
College basketball?s lone remaining unbeaten takes its 22-0 record on the road when West Coast Conference leader Gonzaga travels to BYU on Thursday night. The Zags, the nation?s new No. 1, are unbeaten for a variety of reasons and it starts with defense. Head coach Mark Few?s team is one of the nation?s best on the defensive end allowing just 61.4 points (9th in the country) per game. Another reason is that the Zags can score too. Gonzaga averages 85.2 points per game, 13th-best among Division I schools. Four players ? Nigel Williams-Goss, Przemek Karnowski, Zach Collins, and Jordan Matthews ? average in double figures and two more, Johnathan Williams and Josh Perkins average at least nine points a game.
BYU is hoping that playing at home can help the Cougars claim the upset. BYU is 16-7 and 7-3 in the WCC. A win over Gonzaga would certainly strengthen the Cougars? resume in terms of the NCAA tournament. BYU doesn?t have a signature win and a victory over the nation?s No. 3 team would give them one. It will be up to forward Eric Mika to lead the Cougars to a win. Mika averages 20.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, both tops for BYU. Guards Nick Emery and T.J. Haws add 13.9 and 13.7 points, respectively.
The Cougars do not have the depth of Gonzaga. Williams-Goss averages 14.8 points and 5.6 rebounds. He also dishes out nearly five assists per game and could be the WCC?s best player. Karnowski is big ? 7-foot-1 ? and intimidating inside. The senior from Poland averages 12.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. Collins and Mathews add nearly 11 points a game each and Few plays eight players at least 14 minutes a game. The Zags can extend their winning streak to 23 and it is very possible that they could run the table. They face No. 21 St. Mary?s on Feb. 11.
Memphis @ South Florida
Pick: Memphis -13.5
South Florida is in a major tailspin with nine losses in a row, including a 2-7 ATS mark. The Bulls lost 94-53 at Cincinnati while not even coming close to a 25-point spread and that followed an 81-60 loss to Connecticut as a 7.5-point dog. The Bulls shot just 33.3 percent against the Bearcats with Michael Bibby one of only two players in double figures with 17 points. Memphis has won seven of its last nine games, including 57-50 over East Carolina on Saturday in spite of shooting only 30.3 percent. The Tigers' defense allowed the Pirates just a 32.7 shooting percentage and 2-of-17 from three-point range. Memphis won the first meeting 62-56 on Jan. 14, but South Florida appears to have gotten even worse since that encounter. The Bulls are 18-43-1 ATS their last 62 home contests and 8-20-1 ATS as home underdogs. Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games at South Florida.
Cal St. Fullerton vs. UC Santa Barbara
Pick: Santa Barbara
For many years, UCSB was one of the strongest members of the Big West Conference. That's clearly not the case this year though; the Gauchos come into Saturday w/ a terrible 3-16 straight up record and have dropped four in a row. Fortunately, however, they draw an opponent that hasn't been playing a whole lot better. CS Fullerton had lost three in a row before recording a rare win its last time out, 81-71 over Cal Poly. That's the same opponent that accounts for UCSB's last win as well. Good value on the home side here.
It's been a long time since CS Fullerton turned in B2B strong efforts in conference play. Over the L3 seasons, they are 0-6 ATS off a conference win. They are 25-46 ATS in all lined games since the start of the 2014-15 season, including a 12-28 mark in Big West play. They are 0-4 vs. UCSB during that time.
Road games have not gone well for CS Fullerton either. They are 1-6 straight up on oppponents courts this year, giving up an average of 86 PPG. Thus, the idea that they'd be favored here, even by the slightest amount, seems a bit far-fetched.
MILWAUKEE +9? over Valparaiso
The Crusaders are the class of the Horizon League and it almost appears as a formality for them to win this conference and earn an automatic bid to the Madness. Valpo has won seven in a row and nine of its last 10 games. They are also 8-1 in the conference. They have eight games left after this one and they?ll be favored in all of them and by double digits in most. The Crusaders can even be accused of being bored. Now this team will play in Milwaukee against a team that is 4-6 in the conference, that has no chance of catching them, that is third last in the conference and that is 8-15 overall. Motivation, complacency or both should be a big concern for those considering spotting the points. The Crusaders only have one more slight concern on their docket and that concern comes in the form of the Green Bay Phoenix, a team that they?ll travel to and play on Saturday after this one. Green Bay is 7-3 in the conference and just one win behind the Crusaders. Again, this is a seriously bad situational spot for a team as bored as the Crusaders.
What does Milwaukee have to look forward to? The Panthers only chance of getting into the Dance is to win the Conference Championship but to do so, they are very likely going to have to go through Valpo. The first step to that goal would be to put some doubt in the minds of the Crusaders and to do that, the Panthers are going to have to play their hearts out here. While it may be a lot to ask them to win outright, it sure as hell is not a lot to ask them to play their hearts out. The Panthers rarely put forth a weak effort. They?re much better than their record indicates and it?s worth noting that their out-of-conference schedule ranked 90th in the country (Valpo?s ranked 166). Milwaukee is rarely out of a game too. The Panthers are coming off an OT loss to Oakland. Their last four games have been decided by either one point or in OT. Six games back, they lost to Wright State by just three. Valparaiso has won the last four meetings against Milwaukee, but a lot of those games were close, including the last meeting that went into overtime. The Panthers find ways to hang around and they figure to be the much more motivated team here in a more favorable spot.
Coll of Charleston +8 over UNC-WILMINGTON
On paper, the Seahawks seem to be a runaway train, as they are the sole team with 20 wins in the Colonial Athletic Association and have earned accolades as one of the top mid-major programs in all the land. UNCW has garnished a superbly low RPI and as such phenomenon manifest, the expectations inflate and when those expectations inflate, premiums begin to be assessed on anyone looking to buy in on the Seahawks. The stock on this host is through the roof but with this heightened anticipation, Head Coach Kevin Keatts tweeted out that it only confirms the Seahawks are on top. Humble, the coach is not, which has a way of motivating the opposition. Seemingly with a commanding lead for the most part over the rest of the league, Wilmington is well on their way to greener pastures. There is one team though that can knock them off the hill at this point: the College of Charleston and now UNCW will spot that team inflated points.
Though the Cougars are 17-6 on the year, they are 8-2 in the CAA, just one game behind the Seahawks. The two teams met in Charleston a couple weeks ago where Wilmington would win by six and successfully cover as a 3?-point favorite. For Charleston, a loss here more or less sinks any chance of the Cougars getting to the top of the league standings, as a defeat essentially puts them three games behind the Seahawks.
UNCW has won their last eight against C of C but three of those victories had to be earned in overtime. Five of those eight victories were settled by six points or less. The point we are trying to make here is that Charleston has played this team tough; they just have not been able to get over the hump. Nevertheless, the Cougars have quite an outstanding defense to curtail Wilmington?s catalytic offense. The Cougars also have the perfect antidote to keep themselves in this game and come in under the number or win outright. This is a team with the 328th ranked tempo quotient, which means they like to slow the game down to a crawl. They also own the 36th most efficient defense in America, as the Cougars only permit opponents to score an average of 61.7 points per game (12th nationally) and they are one of the best in shutting down the three (ranked 4th nationally in opponent three-point field goal percentage). The Cougars committed 11 uncharacteristic turnovers in their loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago. They did a great job against the Seahawks pressure and they didn?t shoot very well. Not playing their best or even close to it, Charleston?s defense kept them in it with a chance to win it. That?s not the type of team we like to spot this many points to.
To summarize, the Cougars like to play a slow and methodical game and wear down finesse and offense-oriented teams like Wilmington. Do not be surprised if the Seahawks find themselves in a dogfight late in the second half while being forced to claw and scratch their way out of trouble. Take the inflated points.
Pepperdine vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -11
San Francisco is probably the third-best team in the WCC Conference behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The Dons are 15-8 on the season and continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
The only non-cover came in a 20-point road loss at St. Mary's in a game that was tied at halftime. They covered in losses to St. Mary's and BYU, while beating up on the weaker competition they've faced during this stretch. They beat Pacific by 21 at home, Portland by 25 at home, San Diego by 17 on the road and Pacific by 21 on the road.
Now the Dons are up against the worst team in the WCC in Pepperdine. The Waves are just 6-16 on the season, including 0-9 in true road games. They are getting outscored by nearly 18 points per game on the road this season. They are coming off a 47-point home loss to Gonzaga and won't be very competitive tonight, either.
San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent. The Waves are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Pepperdine is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games. The Dons are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Northeastern vs. William & Mary
Play: William & Mary -4
The Tribe wrap up a nice stretch at home against Northeastern on Thursday. William and Mary lost in Boston 84-64 back on New Year's Eve in a game that wasn't even really that close. The Huskies hit nine three pointers and shot nearly 60% from the field. They are 5-7 on the road, but 4-5 in lined games this season and traditionally have had their problems away from home. The Tribe are 10-0 at home averaging 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to just under 70. They've won eight of their last nine at home in this series covering six of those games.
Arizona at Oregon State
Play: Oregon St +16.5
We have believed and projected the entire 2016-17 Pac-12 campaign that ultimately, once healthy and whole, the young Arizona Wildcats would provide evidence that they were the best in the West and the top of the Pacific 12 league. The fifth-ranked Wildcats come into this Wednesday night conference title having won 14 straight games to grab the top spot in the league standings.
The ?Cats have the luxury of a complete squad with the recent reinstatement of Allonzo Trier and are a team that can defend and score and are a nightmare matchup for every team in the Pac 12. With two frontcourt studs in Lauri Markkanen and Dusan Ristic the Arizona rotations are capable of being a threat to score and defend in the paint and on the perimeter.
Arizona?s win two weeks ago at Pauley over then-No. 3 UCLA 96-85 was the signature win that alerted the league and the hoops nation that coach Sean Miller?s team was the real deal and a serious threat to earn a No #1 Seed in the West.
Miller told reporters earlier this week. ?A lot of people (were) saying great things, (but) watching our effort level, our consistency, our togetherness, we weren?t near where we were coming (into those games). We have to get that back to have great success in the second half of the Pac-12.?
The Wildcats are on the road tonight for a league test against the Oregon State Beavers, a contest that is scheduled to tipoff at 9:00 p.m. ET at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis. The Beavers enter tonight?s event the losers of nine straight games and one of a trio of schools, in the seven conferences considered major, with without a conference victory .
Measuring the Beavers struggles in league play are not necessarily indicative of what tonight?s outcome will resemble. OSU has lost by an average of 16 points per affair during their current nine straight losing streak but are more than capable of being at their best on their home court. To the Beavers? defense they have been without their leading scorer Tres Tinkle (20.2 points, 8.3 rebounds) has missed the last 16 games with a wrist injury, also absent has been bench phenom Cheikh N?Diaye (3.6, 2.2) will miss his 14th game due to a shoulder injury and 13 contests with a shoulder injury, but the squad continues to grow under the improved play of Stephen Thompson Jr. (17.1 points), Drew Eubanks (14.9, 8.5 rebounds) and Jaquori McLaughlin (11.5 points).
Tonight?s game in Corvallis is a tough spot for the Wildcats and a chance for the Beavers to shine. The Wildcats will not maximize their first rotation tonight nor are they aiming to send the local Oregon State faithful to the exits early on Thursday Night, not with their huge showdown on Saturday against the Pac-12?s second-place and nationally ranked Oregon Ducks on deck
The Beavers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing a team with a road winning percentage of .601 or better and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home dog.
Philadelphia vs. San Antonio
Play: Under 213
Philadelphia got burned by the San Antonio rugged defensive game when they played San Antonio the last time, 119-68. There hasn't been any reason to think this will change in this matchup. San Antonio defends really well - and Philly doesn't. San Antonio is enjoying another big year out of their guys - and their superstar, Kawhi Leonard, has been more than adequate, his all around game is outstanding and his 25ppg is always needed. San Antonio has been excellent with stopping teams from doing what they want to do on the court and are ranked 2nd in opponents ppg this year - that is an awful lot to handle for Philadelphia. If the 76ers are going to keep it close, they are going to have to play some solid defense.
My free play for tonight is on the Philadelphia 76ers, catching far too many points against the San Antonio Spurs.
If there's one thing I've observed - along with many others - during the first half of the season, it the always contending Spurs seem to struggle with sub-.500 teams. I'm not sure why, but the Spurs overlook the teams they're supposed to demolish.
Of San Antonio's 11 losses, six of them came against teams with losing records.
Enter the 76ers, who played their best basketball of the season during the month of January. Now, Philadelphia is in after last night's 113-95 loss to surging Dallas, but the Sixers were also up by as many as nine points in the first half, and trailed by merely two (62-60) midway through the third.
Something tells me we're going to see a pissed off 76ers team, which finished January with a 10-5 record, its best month since going 13-4 in January 2012.
Yes, I know Joel Embiid didn't make the trip to Texas after suffering a bruised left knee Jan. 20, but he also hasn't played in six of the past seven games. And Philadelphia is 11-4 since Dec. 30.
Give me the big underdog in this one.
Spurs -14?
The Philadelphia 76ers are starting to come back down to earth. They have lost three of their last four, including a 95-113 road loss at Dallas last night. So not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but they'll also be playing their 4th game in 5 days. Making matters worse for them is that they are expected to be without their best player in Joel Embiid again tonight. The Spurs will be focused because they lost two straight by blowing double-digit halftime leads before thumping the Thunder 108-94 at home on Tuesday. The Spurs are 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the 76ers. They are 18-1 in straight up in their last 19 home meetings.
Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Atlanta
The set-up: The 28-21 Atlanta Hawks are in Houston tonight to face the 36-16 Rockets. Dwight Howard's reception in Houston figures to be rather chilly, as the center spent the past three seasons in Houston and it didn't end well amid constant turmoil that included chatter that star guard James Harden didn't like playing with Howard.
Atlanta: Howard signed a three-year, $70.5 million free-agent deal with the Hawks and and has avergaed 13.6 & 12.8 . He excelled against the Rockets earlier this season when he recorded 20 points and 15 rebounds in Atlanta's 112-97 home victory back on Nov. 5. He already has 31 double-doubles this season after having 38 in his final season with Houston. He had a streak of five straight double-doubles halted when he had six points and 11 rebounds in Wednesday's 116-93 loss to the Miami Heat. Howard teams with PF Paul Millsap (17.9 & 8.2) up front, while Dennis Schroder (17.4 & 6.3 APG) has capably stepped in as the team's starting PG, after Atlanta traded Jeff Teague.
Houston: Harden has thrived without Howard around, averaging 28.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 11.5 APG. However, he is dealing with a knee injury and has been limited to just 12.5 PPG on 6-of-26 shooting over the past two games. That said, he indicated he plans to play against the Hawks (would be a shock if he missed). The Rockets are the NBA's second-highest scoring team, averaging 114.1 PPG.
The pick: The Hawks have alternated wins and losses for six games and are 6-5 over their past 11. Their inconsistency has been a season-long issue and remains mystifying. Meanwhile, the Rockets won 20 of 22 games from Dec. 1 through Jan. 10 but are now playing much like the Hawks, having gone 5-7 their last 12. I'm taking the points.
Lakers vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -11
The Washington Wizards look to extend their winning streak to six games when they host the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers (17-34, 23-27 ATS)have lost 10 straight road games road games but is heading out for the current trip with some momentum after averaged 86.3 points over its last three road games before returning home for a 120-116 win over the Denver Nuggets. D'Angelo Russell handed out a career-high 10 assists and rookie Ivica Zubac added a season-high 17 points.
The Wizards (28-20, 29-19 ATS) have won 12 of their last 14 games and are averaging 111 points in that span. Washington shot 55.7 percent from the floor with six players scoring in double figures. Bradley Beal netted 28 points in Tuesday's 117-101 triumph over the New York Knicks. It was Washington?s 15th straight home win.
The Lakers are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 15 series meetings and 4-1 ATS in their five games overall. However LA is 2-6 in its last 8 road games. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games. The road team is 9-3-1 in the past 13 games.
The Lakers are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four road games and 4-1 to the low side in their past five overall. LA is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 29 against the NBA Southeast.
Hawks vs. Rockets
Play: Over 222
Atlanta Dwight Howard is an exciting player who makes things happen when he is on the court doing what he does, rebound and get above the rim. His ability to get separation from his defender is excellent - the Hawks will keep him involved from the start matched up vs the 25th ranked defense of Houston. Howard is hitting his stride and will have himself a day. Houston needs to get their rim protection game going in the right direction, because they have struggled defending the rack this season - it isn't going to be enough. They have not attacked the paint as well as they would like to be, as the numbers indicate. Houston have also struggled with staying focused getting easy looks at the bucket, at times - with just a 29th ranked 2 pt shooting attempts this season so far, putting them in the bottom half of the league. Considering the Hawks play on Wednesday and the Rockets make 3's at an unbeleivveable clip.
on the Los Angeles Clippers, who will take advantage of the Golden State Warriors, who were up by 32 points last night, and ended up beating the Charlotte Hornets by 15. Sure, the Warriors' starters got some rest last night, but the Clippers are going to attack them from jump and take advantage of what I perceive to be a tired basketball team.
The Warriors have eight straight wins over the Clippers, including the past four meetings at Staples. But that doesn't mean a thing to me, especially when you're offering me this many points. The Clippers are likely still stinging from last Saturday, when Golden State rolled to a 144-98 home rout - the most points allowed by the Clippers this season.
The Clippers are coming off a 124-114 win over Suns in Phoenix on Tuesday, and will be rested after taking last night off.
After this game, the Clippers head back on the road for five more games, beginning Sunday against the Boston Celtics. This will be treated as a must-win.
Take the home pup.
07:35 PM NHL [56] Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +200
09:05 PM NHL [58] Saint Louis Blues -1.5 +225
08:35 PM NHL [61] TOTAL o6-120 (Winnipeg Jets vrs Dallas Stars)
09:05 PM NHL [63] Chicago Blackhawks -160
10:05 PM NHL [65] San Jose Sharks -145
07:05 PM NBA [702] Washington Wizards -11-110
07:00 PM CBB [722] Towson -11-110
11:00 PM CBB [759] Gonzaga -10-110
1 unit bet pays 650 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Toronto at St. Louis
Play:St. Louis -120
The St. Louis Blues relieved head coach Ken Hitchcock of his duties following a lethargic 5-3 home loss to the Winnipeg Jets. St. Louis has been playing mediocre hockey for the better part of the last month including a recent 1-5 slide. Most of the problems had little to do with coaching but rather a lack of effort and intensity. Lack of a consistent puck stopper in net, particularly Jake Allen, also contributed. Former Minnesota head coach Mike Yeo will take over behind the bench. He was slated to take over as head coach next season after Ken Hitchcock?s retirement but that process has been sped up. I expect the typical ?step up? effort from St. Louis following the coaching change which is a common occurrence in the NHL. Look no further than the NY Islanders who have gone 5-0-1 since dismissing head coach Jack Capuano. Toronto is coming off their own bad performance in a 6-3 loss in Dallas on Tuesday. The defense has certainly had some problems since the injury to their top blue liner Morgan Rielly. Replacing his minutes on the ice and impact on the game in all situations has been something the Leafs have had a difficult time figuring out. The Leafs have improved significantly this season but they are going through a bit of a rough patch; 2-4 in their last six games and the only two wins came against slumping Detroit and Calgary. The spot and price is right to back St. Louis tonight as a small home favorite.
Now, those players Armstrong is disgruntled with are going to have to prove they belong to stay, as coach Mike Yeo starts a new era on the bench.
I know the Blues have lost five of their last six games, including their four home games in regulation. But since they're involved in a tight race for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference, sitting three points out of third in the Central Division, I have to believe we may see their best overall performance in a month, tonight against Toronto, which is in off a 6-3 loss in Dallas on Tuesday night.
Your free winner is on the St. Louis Blues, as they'll have an entirely different attitude tonight - a winning one.
TAMPA BAY -1? +215 over Ottawa
The Senators blew a 4-2 lead in Florida and Mike Condon was horrible in a 5-4 loss in their first game back after the break. That?s just one game and we?re not going to put a lot of weight on one loss, especially since the Sens have bounced back nicely from poor efforts all year long. However, it?s now crunch time and this is the time of year that the cream rises to the top. In that regard, Ottawa is not the cream of the crop or even close to it. The Senators are a dangerous team because of their ability to find the back of the net but it?s every other area that is a major concern. The Sens Corsi For % is 47.91% (25th), which is in the same territory as the Avalanche, Sabres, Devils, and Coyotes. What that means is that Ottawa is playing without the puck far too often to be a top-10 team and therefore attrition is inevitable. They are not a top-10 team.
Tampa Bay has not played well recently. Including Tuesday?s loss to Boston, the Lightning have a 3-5-2 record over their last 10 games. They?ve only managed to score 23 goals while allowing 29. Compare that to how Ottawa has been over their past 10 and you?ll see that they have nearly doubled the Bolts in scoring while allowing one less goal. Thing is, the Bolts are playing so much better than their record indicates while the Sens are playing worse. Tampa?s problems all stem from Ben Bishop being one of the NHL?s worst goaltenders (something we warned you about before). You see, soft goals are deflating. They take away the hard work that the players were putting in up to that point and it?s just so hard to rebound from a bad goal or get one?s intensity back. Ben Bishop has been horrible and the rumors are that he?s on the block. The Bolts will now sit him because if they play him and he?s bad, his trade value goes down. Enter Andrei Vasilevskiy, the goaltender that almost single handily knocked the Penguins out of the playoffs last year in a seven-game series after Bishop was hurt early in Game 1.
The Lightning can still score in the top half of the league, scoring 139 goals (13th) and maintaining a top 10 power play at 22.3% (6th). Tampa still plays a strong possession game, managing a 50.94% Corsi For % (10th) and they have done that with several key players missing significant time. Steven Stamkos is still out but the Lightning are otherwise healthier now than they have been all year. Tampa?s third line of Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point would be a top line on many teams in this league. This is a deep and talented team that has suffered the effects of poor goaltending but that part of their troubles may now be over. If Tampa has a run in them, it will start right here and we absolutely trust that they do.
DALLAS -1? +220 over Winnipeg
The Stars 6-3 victory over the Maple Leafs may look pretty on paper but it was anything but. Dallas scored early and often and knocked out Fredrick Andersen in the first period by scoring three times on its first eight shots. Dallas would go on to get outshot in that game, 43-20. However, they did have a 5-1 lead and the closest Toronto ever came within was three goals so Dallas was not in attack mode. It was a much-needed positive start to the second half for Dallas, who now sit just three points back of the final Wild Card spot. At the moment, the Stars and Jets are deadlocked at 52 points apiece. While the Stars have two games in hand, tonight?s game will help determine a lot in the standings. There are currently six teams fighting for the final two playoff spots in the West and the Stars and Jets are the two currently dwelling in the cellar. The last time the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets squared off, the Jets walked away with a crushing 8-2 victory. That came back on November 8. There should definitely be some bad blood brewing but one thing is for sure: this game is going to be an enthralling one to watch and will have some pretty drastic consequences for the loser. The question now becomes, which team can take the heat and rise to the occasion?
We have to trust the Stars more because we have seen this act far too often from the Jets. When the spotlight is brightest, Winnipeg takes five steps backward. Yes indeed the Jets have won two straight and scored five times both games but the last time they won three straight was last season. That?s right, the Jets have yet to win three straight games this entire year but it gets even worse. The Jets are 0-14 this season against top-10 competition. While the Stars are not a top-10 team, Winnipeg?s record against the best reveals that when the going gets tough, they seldom show up. This is a massive game and the Jets? desperate move to call up third stringer Andrej Pavelec has yet to backfire. It?s inevitable that Pavelec and this strategy will implode soon enough. Pavelec comes in with a weak .893 save percentage but it?s been masked by some Jets' victories. After getting whacked by Winnipeg in embarrassing fashion 2? months ago, there is no way that the Stars don?t show up here in this important home game.
Montreal at Philadelphia - home team is 22-5 the last 27 in the series
The Rangers are 16-5 in their last 21 road games and 8-3 in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest..The Rangers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Buffalo and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall with Buffalo.
Buffalo averaged 2.14 goals per game in October, November, and December combined, and then jumped to 3.23 game in January. That 1.09 jump was the third-biggest in the league behind Washington (+1.59) and Winnipeg (+1.12). The Rangers dropped from 3.41 to 3.27 in the same span.
Over is 12-3-1 in Jets last 16 overall.
Over is 6-1 in Stars last 7 home games.
Over is 7-3 in Stars last 10 meetings with Jets.
Hawaii +3.5
Not gonna read much into Hawaii blowout win over UCSB, as the Gauchos are absolutely terrible. But while they aren't good, i think Hawaii could show some improvement down the stretch, as the youth on this team matures a bit. Riverside surprisingly won four straight but that ended last game against Northridge, and I'm of the opinion the Highlanders are more likely to begin reverting to their seemingly eternal mediocre form. Figures pretty close the way I see it, but I like the revenge motive and getting more than one possession is enough to get me on Hawaii.
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers finally ended their 5-game losing streak with an upset home victory over Purdue as 7-point dogs on Sunday. Now the Huskers are clearly in a letdown spot off their biggest win of the season. I think they are running into Michigan State at the wrong time as the Spartans always improve as the season goes on under Tom Izzo, and they're coming off a solid 70-62 home victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans are going to be a dangerous team moving forward and they should not be dogs here. They can't afford losses after their poor start against a brutal schedule, and they won't be taking Nebraska lightly after losing the past two meetings with the Huskers by a combined 3 points. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. The Huskers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last 2 seasons.
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
Michigan State has a history under Tom Izzo of starting to peak once the second half of the season gets rolling. I see a buy sign now on the 13-9 Spartans after their 70-62 home win against Michigan this past Sunday. It's not too much to ask the Spartans to defeat Nebraska, which is a game under .500 both in the Big Ten and overall. The Spartans are the stronger defensive team, more athletic and have better outside shooters than the Cornhuskers. Michigan State is shooting 47.5 percent from the floor while Nebraska is shooting 42.3 percent from the field. Nebraska is in a letdown spot after snapping a five-game losing streak with a stunning 83-80 home victory against 20th-ranked Purdue this past Sunday. The Spartans have triple revenge and are the healthier team. The Cornhuskers have been without their third-leading scorer forward Ed Morrow for the past five games due to a stress reaction in his right foot. Guard Tai Webster, the team's top scorer, rolled an ankle against Purdue and center Jordy Tshimanga is battling the flu. There's a chance all three could play, but how effective would they be? The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and 17-6 ATS during their last 23 Big Ten games. Nebraska has failed to cover in six of its last eight home contests. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover opened this month with an easy winner backing underdog Florida State against Miami on Wednesday. The Seminoles won by 18 points.
Marshall (-8 ) over Southern Mississippi
We hit with Marshall last week. Let's go to the well until the well is dry. Marshall is coming off its worst game of the year, a pathetic 23-point loss as a 13-point favorite against UTEP last Saturday. This Marshall team had been showing some serious signs of life in the CUSA race before that came crashing down on them. However, I think the Thundering Herd will be able to rebound here against lowly Southern Miss. Marshall has had some moments on the road this year, including near-misses against Cincinnati and Pitt as well as easy double-digit league wins against FAU and FIU. They should be able to do the same against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are No. 347 in the country in scoring, No. 339 in shooting (they make just 39.1 percent of their shots), and No. 343 in 3-point shooting (28.8 percent as a team). Quite simply, this team can't score enough to keep up with Marshall's high-octane offense. And it is not as if Southern Miss is some slow-down, solid defensive grinder. They play at a pretty medium tempo, and their defense doesn't rank higher than No. 161 in any major category. Marshall is a solid 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games, and they've only lost back-to-back games at the window one time all year. I think they will overpower the Golden Eagles here.
CAL POLY -1 over UC Davis
This situation conforms to what we normally like to target overall. If you recall, last week we were in on UC Davis as an outright dog when they hosted cross-state rival UC Irvine and pulled off the upset against the Anteaters. Entering the game, the two were locked in a draw for the Big West lead but Irvine was the team that many bracketologists had given the nod to be the prognosticated representative in the Men?s Basketball Tournament in March. Furthermore, many pundits are now hopping aboard the Aggie bandwagon and calling for Davis to be the #16 seed in the Big Dance as opposed to Irvine a week ago. Our position remains to hop off teams when most are hopping on.
Davis has not taken the court since this win, so we have yet to see if this team is truly prone for a hangover after pulling off a tremendous win against the conference frontrunner. Results of this caliber often yield an overreaction and set up teams like Davis for a huge letdown in their follow up. We are not advocates of laying road points in a conference as weak as the Big West and Cal Poly in particular reinforces our stance, as they defeated Irvine by thirteen-points as a thirteen-point home pup in the game previous to Irvine?s encounter with Davis. This incident served as prime rationale for us to target Irvine with Davis.
Now Davis sports the target on their back when just a week ago they were the predator. Cal Poly remains a lowly 6-15 team nestled in the lower tier of the Big West. They will enter this contest with nothing to lose but exuberant at the chance to wrestle with one of the big dogs of this league on their own court. They have the proven ability to defeat these teams outright too. Davis and Cal Poly have already met once this year on Davis? court but the Aggies were on the come-up and even then they were spotting more points than required to the Mustangs, as they won 68-64 although they were favored by seven. Davis is now the new big kid on the block, as they are in the pole position but we have yet to see how they handle this position. On Groundhog?s Day, UC Davis may very well see their shadow and stumble into a trap as a result.
NOTE: We suspect this line will move and Davis may be favored later in the day, thus, we'll hold off until later and wait for a better number. We will update this later, as to whether it's an offical play or not and tweet it out when we do.
Gonzaga Bulldogs @ BYU Cougars
Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs -8
College basketball?s lone remaining unbeaten takes its 22-0 record on the road when West Coast Conference leader Gonzaga travels to BYU on Thursday night. The Zags, the nation?s new No. 1, are unbeaten for a variety of reasons and it starts with defense. Head coach Mark Few?s team is one of the nation?s best on the defensive end allowing just 61.4 points (9th in the country) per game. Another reason is that the Zags can score too. Gonzaga averages 85.2 points per game, 13th-best among Division I schools. Four players ? Nigel Williams-Goss, Przemek Karnowski, Zach Collins, and Jordan Matthews ? average in double figures and two more, Johnathan Williams and Josh Perkins average at least nine points a game.
BYU is hoping that playing at home can help the Cougars claim the upset. BYU is 16-7 and 7-3 in the WCC. A win over Gonzaga would certainly strengthen the Cougars? resume in terms of the NCAA tournament. BYU doesn?t have a signature win and a victory over the nation?s No. 3 team would give them one. It will be up to forward Eric Mika to lead the Cougars to a win. Mika averages 20.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, both tops for BYU. Guards Nick Emery and T.J. Haws add 13.9 and 13.7 points, respectively.
The Cougars do not have the depth of Gonzaga. Williams-Goss averages 14.8 points and 5.6 rebounds. He also dishes out nearly five assists per game and could be the WCC?s best player. Karnowski is big ? 7-foot-1 ? and intimidating inside. The senior from Poland averages 12.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. Collins and Mathews add nearly 11 points a game each and Few plays eight players at least 14 minutes a game. The Zags can extend their winning streak to 23 and it is very possible that they could run the table. They face No. 21 St. Mary?s on Feb. 11.
Memphis @ South Florida
Pick: Memphis -13.5
South Florida is in a major tailspin with nine losses in a row, including a 2-7 ATS mark. The Bulls lost 94-53 at Cincinnati while not even coming close to a 25-point spread and that followed an 81-60 loss to Connecticut as a 7.5-point dog. The Bulls shot just 33.3 percent against the Bearcats with Michael Bibby one of only two players in double figures with 17 points. Memphis has won seven of its last nine games, including 57-50 over East Carolina on Saturday in spite of shooting only 30.3 percent. The Tigers' defense allowed the Pirates just a 32.7 shooting percentage and 2-of-17 from three-point range. Memphis won the first meeting 62-56 on Jan. 14, but South Florida appears to have gotten even worse since that encounter. The Bulls are 18-43-1 ATS their last 62 home contests and 8-20-1 ATS as home underdogs. Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games at South Florida.
Cal St. Fullerton vs. UC Santa Barbara
Pick: Santa Barbara
For many years, UCSB was one of the strongest members of the Big West Conference. That's clearly not the case this year though; the Gauchos come into Saturday w/ a terrible 3-16 straight up record and have dropped four in a row. Fortunately, however, they draw an opponent that hasn't been playing a whole lot better. CS Fullerton had lost three in a row before recording a rare win its last time out, 81-71 over Cal Poly. That's the same opponent that accounts for UCSB's last win as well. Good value on the home side here.
It's been a long time since CS Fullerton turned in B2B strong efforts in conference play. Over the L3 seasons, they are 0-6 ATS off a conference win. They are 25-46 ATS in all lined games since the start of the 2014-15 season, including a 12-28 mark in Big West play. They are 0-4 vs. UCSB during that time.
Road games have not gone well for CS Fullerton either. They are 1-6 straight up on oppponents courts this year, giving up an average of 86 PPG. Thus, the idea that they'd be favored here, even by the slightest amount, seems a bit far-fetched.
MILWAUKEE +9? over Valparaiso
The Crusaders are the class of the Horizon League and it almost appears as a formality for them to win this conference and earn an automatic bid to the Madness. Valpo has won seven in a row and nine of its last 10 games. They are also 8-1 in the conference. They have eight games left after this one and they?ll be favored in all of them and by double digits in most. The Crusaders can even be accused of being bored. Now this team will play in Milwaukee against a team that is 4-6 in the conference, that has no chance of catching them, that is third last in the conference and that is 8-15 overall. Motivation, complacency or both should be a big concern for those considering spotting the points. The Crusaders only have one more slight concern on their docket and that concern comes in the form of the Green Bay Phoenix, a team that they?ll travel to and play on Saturday after this one. Green Bay is 7-3 in the conference and just one win behind the Crusaders. Again, this is a seriously bad situational spot for a team as bored as the Crusaders.
What does Milwaukee have to look forward to? The Panthers only chance of getting into the Dance is to win the Conference Championship but to do so, they are very likely going to have to go through Valpo. The first step to that goal would be to put some doubt in the minds of the Crusaders and to do that, the Panthers are going to have to play their hearts out here. While it may be a lot to ask them to win outright, it sure as hell is not a lot to ask them to play their hearts out. The Panthers rarely put forth a weak effort. They?re much better than their record indicates and it?s worth noting that their out-of-conference schedule ranked 90th in the country (Valpo?s ranked 166). Milwaukee is rarely out of a game too. The Panthers are coming off an OT loss to Oakland. Their last four games have been decided by either one point or in OT. Six games back, they lost to Wright State by just three. Valparaiso has won the last four meetings against Milwaukee, but a lot of those games were close, including the last meeting that went into overtime. The Panthers find ways to hang around and they figure to be the much more motivated team here in a more favorable spot.
Coll of Charleston +8 over UNC-WILMINGTON
On paper, the Seahawks seem to be a runaway train, as they are the sole team with 20 wins in the Colonial Athletic Association and have earned accolades as one of the top mid-major programs in all the land. UNCW has garnished a superbly low RPI and as such phenomenon manifest, the expectations inflate and when those expectations inflate, premiums begin to be assessed on anyone looking to buy in on the Seahawks. The stock on this host is through the roof but with this heightened anticipation, Head Coach Kevin Keatts tweeted out that it only confirms the Seahawks are on top. Humble, the coach is not, which has a way of motivating the opposition. Seemingly with a commanding lead for the most part over the rest of the league, Wilmington is well on their way to greener pastures. There is one team though that can knock them off the hill at this point: the College of Charleston and now UNCW will spot that team inflated points.
Though the Cougars are 17-6 on the year, they are 8-2 in the CAA, just one game behind the Seahawks. The two teams met in Charleston a couple weeks ago where Wilmington would win by six and successfully cover as a 3?-point favorite. For Charleston, a loss here more or less sinks any chance of the Cougars getting to the top of the league standings, as a defeat essentially puts them three games behind the Seahawks.
UNCW has won their last eight against C of C but three of those victories had to be earned in overtime. Five of those eight victories were settled by six points or less. The point we are trying to make here is that Charleston has played this team tough; they just have not been able to get over the hump. Nevertheless, the Cougars have quite an outstanding defense to curtail Wilmington?s catalytic offense. The Cougars also have the perfect antidote to keep themselves in this game and come in under the number or win outright. This is a team with the 328th ranked tempo quotient, which means they like to slow the game down to a crawl. They also own the 36th most efficient defense in America, as the Cougars only permit opponents to score an average of 61.7 points per game (12th nationally) and they are one of the best in shutting down the three (ranked 4th nationally in opponent three-point field goal percentage). The Cougars committed 11 uncharacteristic turnovers in their loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago. They did a great job against the Seahawks pressure and they didn?t shoot very well. Not playing their best or even close to it, Charleston?s defense kept them in it with a chance to win it. That?s not the type of team we like to spot this many points to.
To summarize, the Cougars like to play a slow and methodical game and wear down finesse and offense-oriented teams like Wilmington. Do not be surprised if the Seahawks find themselves in a dogfight late in the second half while being forced to claw and scratch their way out of trouble. Take the inflated points.
Pepperdine vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -11
San Francisco is probably the third-best team in the WCC Conference behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The Dons are 15-8 on the season and continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
The only non-cover came in a 20-point road loss at St. Mary's in a game that was tied at halftime. They covered in losses to St. Mary's and BYU, while beating up on the weaker competition they've faced during this stretch. They beat Pacific by 21 at home, Portland by 25 at home, San Diego by 17 on the road and Pacific by 21 on the road.
Now the Dons are up against the worst team in the WCC in Pepperdine. The Waves are just 6-16 on the season, including 0-9 in true road games. They are getting outscored by nearly 18 points per game on the road this season. They are coming off a 47-point home loss to Gonzaga and won't be very competitive tonight, either.
San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent. The Waves are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Pepperdine is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games. The Dons are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Northeastern vs. William & Mary
Play: William & Mary -4
The Tribe wrap up a nice stretch at home against Northeastern on Thursday. William and Mary lost in Boston 84-64 back on New Year's Eve in a game that wasn't even really that close. The Huskies hit nine three pointers and shot nearly 60% from the field. They are 5-7 on the road, but 4-5 in lined games this season and traditionally have had their problems away from home. The Tribe are 10-0 at home averaging 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to just under 70. They've won eight of their last nine at home in this series covering six of those games.
Arizona at Oregon State
Play: Oregon St +16.5
We have believed and projected the entire 2016-17 Pac-12 campaign that ultimately, once healthy and whole, the young Arizona Wildcats would provide evidence that they were the best in the West and the top of the Pacific 12 league. The fifth-ranked Wildcats come into this Wednesday night conference title having won 14 straight games to grab the top spot in the league standings.
The ?Cats have the luxury of a complete squad with the recent reinstatement of Allonzo Trier and are a team that can defend and score and are a nightmare matchup for every team in the Pac 12. With two frontcourt studs in Lauri Markkanen and Dusan Ristic the Arizona rotations are capable of being a threat to score and defend in the paint and on the perimeter.
Arizona?s win two weeks ago at Pauley over then-No. 3 UCLA 96-85 was the signature win that alerted the league and the hoops nation that coach Sean Miller?s team was the real deal and a serious threat to earn a No #1 Seed in the West.
Miller told reporters earlier this week. ?A lot of people (were) saying great things, (but) watching our effort level, our consistency, our togetherness, we weren?t near where we were coming (into those games). We have to get that back to have great success in the second half of the Pac-12.?
The Wildcats are on the road tonight for a league test against the Oregon State Beavers, a contest that is scheduled to tipoff at 9:00 p.m. ET at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis. The Beavers enter tonight?s event the losers of nine straight games and one of a trio of schools, in the seven conferences considered major, with without a conference victory .
Measuring the Beavers struggles in league play are not necessarily indicative of what tonight?s outcome will resemble. OSU has lost by an average of 16 points per affair during their current nine straight losing streak but are more than capable of being at their best on their home court. To the Beavers? defense they have been without their leading scorer Tres Tinkle (20.2 points, 8.3 rebounds) has missed the last 16 games with a wrist injury, also absent has been bench phenom Cheikh N?Diaye (3.6, 2.2) will miss his 14th game due to a shoulder injury and 13 contests with a shoulder injury, but the squad continues to grow under the improved play of Stephen Thompson Jr. (17.1 points), Drew Eubanks (14.9, 8.5 rebounds) and Jaquori McLaughlin (11.5 points).
Tonight?s game in Corvallis is a tough spot for the Wildcats and a chance for the Beavers to shine. The Wildcats will not maximize their first rotation tonight nor are they aiming to send the local Oregon State faithful to the exits early on Thursday Night, not with their huge showdown on Saturday against the Pac-12?s second-place and nationally ranked Oregon Ducks on deck
The Beavers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing a team with a road winning percentage of .601 or better and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home dog.
Philadelphia vs. San Antonio
Play: Under 213
Philadelphia got burned by the San Antonio rugged defensive game when they played San Antonio the last time, 119-68. There hasn't been any reason to think this will change in this matchup. San Antonio defends really well - and Philly doesn't. San Antonio is enjoying another big year out of their guys - and their superstar, Kawhi Leonard, has been more than adequate, his all around game is outstanding and his 25ppg is always needed. San Antonio has been excellent with stopping teams from doing what they want to do on the court and are ranked 2nd in opponents ppg this year - that is an awful lot to handle for Philadelphia. If the 76ers are going to keep it close, they are going to have to play some solid defense.
My free play for tonight is on the Philadelphia 76ers, catching far too many points against the San Antonio Spurs.
If there's one thing I've observed - along with many others - during the first half of the season, it the always contending Spurs seem to struggle with sub-.500 teams. I'm not sure why, but the Spurs overlook the teams they're supposed to demolish.
Of San Antonio's 11 losses, six of them came against teams with losing records.
Enter the 76ers, who played their best basketball of the season during the month of January. Now, Philadelphia is in after last night's 113-95 loss to surging Dallas, but the Sixers were also up by as many as nine points in the first half, and trailed by merely two (62-60) midway through the third.
Something tells me we're going to see a pissed off 76ers team, which finished January with a 10-5 record, its best month since going 13-4 in January 2012.
Yes, I know Joel Embiid didn't make the trip to Texas after suffering a bruised left knee Jan. 20, but he also hasn't played in six of the past seven games. And Philadelphia is 11-4 since Dec. 30.
Give me the big underdog in this one.
Spurs -14?
The Philadelphia 76ers are starting to come back down to earth. They have lost three of their last four, including a 95-113 road loss at Dallas last night. So not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but they'll also be playing their 4th game in 5 days. Making matters worse for them is that they are expected to be without their best player in Joel Embiid again tonight. The Spurs will be focused because they lost two straight by blowing double-digit halftime leads before thumping the Thunder 108-94 at home on Tuesday. The Spurs are 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the 76ers. They are 18-1 in straight up in their last 19 home meetings.
Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Atlanta
The set-up: The 28-21 Atlanta Hawks are in Houston tonight to face the 36-16 Rockets. Dwight Howard's reception in Houston figures to be rather chilly, as the center spent the past three seasons in Houston and it didn't end well amid constant turmoil that included chatter that star guard James Harden didn't like playing with Howard.
Atlanta: Howard signed a three-year, $70.5 million free-agent deal with the Hawks and and has avergaed 13.6 & 12.8 . He excelled against the Rockets earlier this season when he recorded 20 points and 15 rebounds in Atlanta's 112-97 home victory back on Nov. 5. He already has 31 double-doubles this season after having 38 in his final season with Houston. He had a streak of five straight double-doubles halted when he had six points and 11 rebounds in Wednesday's 116-93 loss to the Miami Heat. Howard teams with PF Paul Millsap (17.9 & 8.2) up front, while Dennis Schroder (17.4 & 6.3 APG) has capably stepped in as the team's starting PG, after Atlanta traded Jeff Teague.
Houston: Harden has thrived without Howard around, averaging 28.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 11.5 APG. However, he is dealing with a knee injury and has been limited to just 12.5 PPG on 6-of-26 shooting over the past two games. That said, he indicated he plans to play against the Hawks (would be a shock if he missed). The Rockets are the NBA's second-highest scoring team, averaging 114.1 PPG.
The pick: The Hawks have alternated wins and losses for six games and are 6-5 over their past 11. Their inconsistency has been a season-long issue and remains mystifying. Meanwhile, the Rockets won 20 of 22 games from Dec. 1 through Jan. 10 but are now playing much like the Hawks, having gone 5-7 their last 12. I'm taking the points.
Lakers vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -11
The Washington Wizards look to extend their winning streak to six games when they host the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers (17-34, 23-27 ATS)have lost 10 straight road games road games but is heading out for the current trip with some momentum after averaged 86.3 points over its last three road games before returning home for a 120-116 win over the Denver Nuggets. D'Angelo Russell handed out a career-high 10 assists and rookie Ivica Zubac added a season-high 17 points.
The Wizards (28-20, 29-19 ATS) have won 12 of their last 14 games and are averaging 111 points in that span. Washington shot 55.7 percent from the floor with six players scoring in double figures. Bradley Beal netted 28 points in Tuesday's 117-101 triumph over the New York Knicks. It was Washington?s 15th straight home win.
The Lakers are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 15 series meetings and 4-1 ATS in their five games overall. However LA is 2-6 in its last 8 road games. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games. The road team is 9-3-1 in the past 13 games.
The Lakers are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four road games and 4-1 to the low side in their past five overall. LA is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 29 against the NBA Southeast.
Hawks vs. Rockets
Play: Over 222
Atlanta Dwight Howard is an exciting player who makes things happen when he is on the court doing what he does, rebound and get above the rim. His ability to get separation from his defender is excellent - the Hawks will keep him involved from the start matched up vs the 25th ranked defense of Houston. Howard is hitting his stride and will have himself a day. Houston needs to get their rim protection game going in the right direction, because they have struggled defending the rack this season - it isn't going to be enough. They have not attacked the paint as well as they would like to be, as the numbers indicate. Houston have also struggled with staying focused getting easy looks at the bucket, at times - with just a 29th ranked 2 pt shooting attempts this season so far, putting them in the bottom half of the league. Considering the Hawks play on Wednesday and the Rockets make 3's at an unbeleivveable clip.
on the Los Angeles Clippers, who will take advantage of the Golden State Warriors, who were up by 32 points last night, and ended up beating the Charlotte Hornets by 15. Sure, the Warriors' starters got some rest last night, but the Clippers are going to attack them from jump and take advantage of what I perceive to be a tired basketball team.
The Warriors have eight straight wins over the Clippers, including the past four meetings at Staples. But that doesn't mean a thing to me, especially when you're offering me this many points. The Clippers are likely still stinging from last Saturday, when Golden State rolled to a 144-98 home rout - the most points allowed by the Clippers this season.
The Clippers are coming off a 124-114 win over Suns in Phoenix on Tuesday, and will be rested after taking last night off.
After this game, the Clippers head back on the road for five more games, beginning Sunday against the Boston Celtics. This will be treated as a must-win.
Take the home pup.
