Last week I went 5-4, which makes me 10-12 for the year due to my ghastly second week. I have had 2 out of 3 winning weeks, and fully intend for this to be the 3rd. Also should be ahead with YTD after this weekend.
Thursday:
Auburn -2.5 over Mississippi State
To tell the truth, Auburn isn't that good of a football team. They have an inconsistent quarterback and their best WRs are true freshmen. There have been years -- '99 in particular -- that State's defense would have taken this Auburn offense and stomped them in the ground. This, however, is not that State defense. Other than LB Mario Haggan and FS Josh Morgan, this year's model falls far short of Joe Lee Dunn's usual standards. The DL can be run on (Jacksonville St. averaged over 5 yards per carry in the first half last week) and the secondary is short on playmakers. On offense, State must depend on its passing game with quarterback Fant and a good group of receivers. The OL is weak on run blocking and TB Dontae Walker, a Parade All-American out of high school, seems to have gotten progressively worse each year in college. Reporting to fall camp at 270 didn't help matters. Auburn is better on both sides of the line, and can run all night long with Cadillac Williams carrying the ball. I've studied all angles of this game and just can't see State winning it. All they have going for them is a home field advantage, and without their cowbells it's just not going to be enough.
Friday:
Central Florida +9.5
I've seen many people say that Marshall is out to prove they are a legitimate top 25 team. Not much talk has centered on how Central Florida wants to prove they also belong in the tough team category. Quarterback Ryan Schneider is on pace to break all of Dante Culpepper's school records. Doug Gabriel is one of the best WR's in the country. Alex Haynes is a hard-nosed RB who'll get plenty of carries against Marshall. Certainly Byron Leftwich is one of the top quarterbacks around, and Marshall has an excellent group of WRs. Yet some of UCF's top players are in the secondary. Asante Samuel is considered the top cover corner in UCF's history. They have more on defense: DE Elton Patterson had 9 sacks and 21 tackles for lost yardage last season. MLB Chad Mascoe was originally a top recruit for FSU, and DL Roy Foster was similarly scheduled to play for the Gators. I think UCF has what it takes to give Marshall all they can handle. It should be a fun game to watch, with lots of offense, but UCF covers the spread.
Saturday:
Game of the Week: Tennessee -4 over Florida
Florida has as much skill/talent/ability/size/speed/strength as any team in the country, yet for some reason they just don't look like themselves. It was hard to watch them get kicked around by Miami in the Swamp, looking like imposters in Gator uniforms. Their OC and DC are two of the best in the business, and Zook has energy to spare. Are they just not able to adopt to the new systems? At any rate, Tennessee has just as much skill/talent/ability/size/speed/strength, just as good coaching, and will have the Gators on their home field. Unless Florida is suddenly going to be Superman changing out of Clark Kent clothes, the Volunteers are going to win big here. Take the Vols.
Louisana Tech +14.5 over Penn State
Penn State shocked the world with their massacre of Nebraska last week. Now can they come back down to earth to face a mid-major? Louisiana Tech is not a national power, but they do know how to score points. They return 8 offensive starters to a squad that averaged 34.7 points a game last season. I think they are just good enough to catch Paterno's club a little flat and maybe looking a little ahead to next week's game with Iowa. They should be able to cover this spread much the same as UCF did a couple of weeks ago.
North Carolina State +2.5 over Texas Tech
This is billed by some as a showdown between two great QBs, but that is slightly misleading. Philip Rivers is rated #1 in the nation while Kliff Kingsbury is #28. Philips leads a Wolfpack offense that is 15th in the country scoring 41.3 points a game, while the Red Raider D is 102nd giving up 432.7 yards a game. The Wolfpack pass defense is 3rd at 88.3 ypg, and 7th overall at 222 ypg. TT was outplayed by Ole Miss and outgained by 140 yards. Ole Miss mistakes and miscues did them in. NCState won't be as generous. I like this game so much it came in second as my GOW.
Ole Miss -20 over Vanderbilt
The emphasis in practice this week in Oxford has been on focus and intensity. Look for the Rebs to come out of the gate with a little more fire against Vandy. The offense that hasn't scored a TD in the first quarter all year wants to strike fast and often in this game. The Rebel defense has looked much improved so far and should keep Vandy in check. Leading tackler Eddie Strong is still out, but LBs L. P. Spence and Lanier Goethie were both starters in last year's 3-4, and will fill in nicely in this year's 4-2-5. If Ole Miss had won last week against TT, or if they had Florida next week instead of after an offweek, this would be a good time to go with the 'Dores. Under the circumstances, however, look for the Rebels to win something along the order of 38-10.
Michigan State -2 over Notre Dame
Although I specialize in the SEC, ACC, C-USA, and Big East, this game stands out to me as a number of basic handicapping principles come into play. We have a team who won big last week going on the road against a team that lost big, therefore we have great value in the line. Michigan State has more talent than they have shown in their last two games, and although ND has played extremely well, I look for MSU to hand them their first loss of the season.
Southern Miss +7 over Alabama
This is the strangest series. Alabama recruits the prime time prospects while USM seemingly gets the leftovers, yet the Golden Eagles always seem to give the Tide more than they asked for. This looks to be Southern's best team in years. In Derrick Nix they have a RB who will go high in the draft either this year or the next. QB Mickey D'Angelo leads a slick passing attack just good enough to keep the Tide from ganging up on Nix. USM's defense is another scrappy squad who will hit hard on every play. Alabama has a good, talented team this year, and certainly gave Oklahoma all they could handle. However they have a big game against Arkansas coming up next week, and USM will keep this one very, very close.
South Carolina -14.5 over Temple
I hardly know what to say about this game except the spread is too low. Maybe if the Cocks had won over Georgia last week, but that wasn't the case. Miami bobbles allowed Temple to cover against them, but Temple played their heart out in that game. How much do they have left to go on the road again against a vastly superior South Carolina squad? Cocks win big.
Troy State +17 over Iowa State
ISU won their big game against instate rival Iowa last week and they are sated. Troy State can play with the big boys, having already covered against Nebraska earlier. They are good enough to make a game of it against an uninspired ISU squad, and should have a back door cover if nothing else.
Duke +45.5 over Florida State
FSU has no reason or motive to beat up on a hapless Duke team. They have bigger fish to fry. A lot of reserves should get a lot of playing time in this game, as the 'Noles have to travel to Louisville for a Thursday night showdown. They have no reason to be interested in this game and should win from 30-40 but no more. FSU has a long history of not covering mega-spreads like this.
That's it for this week and good luck to all!
Thursday:
Auburn -2.5 over Mississippi State
To tell the truth, Auburn isn't that good of a football team. They have an inconsistent quarterback and their best WRs are true freshmen. There have been years -- '99 in particular -- that State's defense would have taken this Auburn offense and stomped them in the ground. This, however, is not that State defense. Other than LB Mario Haggan and FS Josh Morgan, this year's model falls far short of Joe Lee Dunn's usual standards. The DL can be run on (Jacksonville St. averaged over 5 yards per carry in the first half last week) and the secondary is short on playmakers. On offense, State must depend on its passing game with quarterback Fant and a good group of receivers. The OL is weak on run blocking and TB Dontae Walker, a Parade All-American out of high school, seems to have gotten progressively worse each year in college. Reporting to fall camp at 270 didn't help matters. Auburn is better on both sides of the line, and can run all night long with Cadillac Williams carrying the ball. I've studied all angles of this game and just can't see State winning it. All they have going for them is a home field advantage, and without their cowbells it's just not going to be enough.
Friday:
Central Florida +9.5
I've seen many people say that Marshall is out to prove they are a legitimate top 25 team. Not much talk has centered on how Central Florida wants to prove they also belong in the tough team category. Quarterback Ryan Schneider is on pace to break all of Dante Culpepper's school records. Doug Gabriel is one of the best WR's in the country. Alex Haynes is a hard-nosed RB who'll get plenty of carries against Marshall. Certainly Byron Leftwich is one of the top quarterbacks around, and Marshall has an excellent group of WRs. Yet some of UCF's top players are in the secondary. Asante Samuel is considered the top cover corner in UCF's history. They have more on defense: DE Elton Patterson had 9 sacks and 21 tackles for lost yardage last season. MLB Chad Mascoe was originally a top recruit for FSU, and DL Roy Foster was similarly scheduled to play for the Gators. I think UCF has what it takes to give Marshall all they can handle. It should be a fun game to watch, with lots of offense, but UCF covers the spread.
Saturday:
Game of the Week: Tennessee -4 over Florida
Florida has as much skill/talent/ability/size/speed/strength as any team in the country, yet for some reason they just don't look like themselves. It was hard to watch them get kicked around by Miami in the Swamp, looking like imposters in Gator uniforms. Their OC and DC are two of the best in the business, and Zook has energy to spare. Are they just not able to adopt to the new systems? At any rate, Tennessee has just as much skill/talent/ability/size/speed/strength, just as good coaching, and will have the Gators on their home field. Unless Florida is suddenly going to be Superman changing out of Clark Kent clothes, the Volunteers are going to win big here. Take the Vols.
Louisana Tech +14.5 over Penn State
Penn State shocked the world with their massacre of Nebraska last week. Now can they come back down to earth to face a mid-major? Louisiana Tech is not a national power, but they do know how to score points. They return 8 offensive starters to a squad that averaged 34.7 points a game last season. I think they are just good enough to catch Paterno's club a little flat and maybe looking a little ahead to next week's game with Iowa. They should be able to cover this spread much the same as UCF did a couple of weeks ago.
North Carolina State +2.5 over Texas Tech
This is billed by some as a showdown between two great QBs, but that is slightly misleading. Philip Rivers is rated #1 in the nation while Kliff Kingsbury is #28. Philips leads a Wolfpack offense that is 15th in the country scoring 41.3 points a game, while the Red Raider D is 102nd giving up 432.7 yards a game. The Wolfpack pass defense is 3rd at 88.3 ypg, and 7th overall at 222 ypg. TT was outplayed by Ole Miss and outgained by 140 yards. Ole Miss mistakes and miscues did them in. NCState won't be as generous. I like this game so much it came in second as my GOW.
Ole Miss -20 over Vanderbilt
The emphasis in practice this week in Oxford has been on focus and intensity. Look for the Rebs to come out of the gate with a little more fire against Vandy. The offense that hasn't scored a TD in the first quarter all year wants to strike fast and often in this game. The Rebel defense has looked much improved so far and should keep Vandy in check. Leading tackler Eddie Strong is still out, but LBs L. P. Spence and Lanier Goethie were both starters in last year's 3-4, and will fill in nicely in this year's 4-2-5. If Ole Miss had won last week against TT, or if they had Florida next week instead of after an offweek, this would be a good time to go with the 'Dores. Under the circumstances, however, look for the Rebels to win something along the order of 38-10.
Michigan State -2 over Notre Dame
Although I specialize in the SEC, ACC, C-USA, and Big East, this game stands out to me as a number of basic handicapping principles come into play. We have a team who won big last week going on the road against a team that lost big, therefore we have great value in the line. Michigan State has more talent than they have shown in their last two games, and although ND has played extremely well, I look for MSU to hand them their first loss of the season.
Southern Miss +7 over Alabama
This is the strangest series. Alabama recruits the prime time prospects while USM seemingly gets the leftovers, yet the Golden Eagles always seem to give the Tide more than they asked for. This looks to be Southern's best team in years. In Derrick Nix they have a RB who will go high in the draft either this year or the next. QB Mickey D'Angelo leads a slick passing attack just good enough to keep the Tide from ganging up on Nix. USM's defense is another scrappy squad who will hit hard on every play. Alabama has a good, talented team this year, and certainly gave Oklahoma all they could handle. However they have a big game against Arkansas coming up next week, and USM will keep this one very, very close.
South Carolina -14.5 over Temple
I hardly know what to say about this game except the spread is too low. Maybe if the Cocks had won over Georgia last week, but that wasn't the case. Miami bobbles allowed Temple to cover against them, but Temple played their heart out in that game. How much do they have left to go on the road again against a vastly superior South Carolina squad? Cocks win big.
Troy State +17 over Iowa State
ISU won their big game against instate rival Iowa last week and they are sated. Troy State can play with the big boys, having already covered against Nebraska earlier. They are good enough to make a game of it against an uninspired ISU squad, and should have a back door cover if nothing else.
Duke +45.5 over Florida State
FSU has no reason or motive to beat up on a hapless Duke team. They have bigger fish to fry. A lot of reserves should get a lot of playing time in this game, as the 'Noles have to travel to Louisville for a Thursday night showdown. They have no reason to be interested in this game and should win from 30-40 but no more. FSU has a long history of not covering mega-spreads like this.
That's it for this week and good luck to all!
