Thursady Service Plays 4/17/08

the duke

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Boston (-130) at NY YANKEES Karl Garrett

G-Man delivers for free last night with the Yankees. Now 16-8-1 the last 25 days with my comp plays.

It took a while, but it finally looks like the New York bats have come to life. With last night's Red Sox-Yankees game going OVER the posted total, the Yanks have now played on the high side in 3 of their last 4 games.

Boston has also been involved in OVERS in 3 of their last 4 games, and the last time Beckett faced Mussina over the weekend, the hitters did account for 7 runs combined against the starters although the game did land just UNDER the total.

With the quick turnaround, look for the hitters to have the advantage in seeing these hurlers again in less than a week - that certainly was the case last night against Buchholz and Wang! - and look for this game to head OVER the total as the teams conclude their brief 2-game set.

Beckett's ERA is up over 6 for his first pair of starts, while Mussina's ERA is over 4 for his 3 starting assignments.

Hitters rule the roost again in this one.

3♦ OVER



Kansas City (+140) at L.A. ANGELS Bobby Maxwell

Delivered the FREE winner Wednesday with the Astros as Roy Oswalt shut down the Phillies just like we said he would. Today we go to Anaheim for a complimentary selection on the Royals as they take on the Angels.

Big plus-money we're jumping on with this one and all the numbers point to the Royals to get the job done in Anaheim.

Kansas City has won the last six matchups with the Angels, including Wednesday's 3-2 victory. They've won their last four games played in Anaheim and they've got a great shot to get this one tonight. Brett Tomko (1-1, 2.08 ERA) goes for the Royals against the Angels' Jon Garland (1-2, 5.50).

Tomko has been spectacular in his first two starts of the season, blanking the Twins on six hits for five innings in Minnesota and then allowing two runs through six innings at home against the Twins.

On the complete opposite end, Garland has been horrible for the Angels. he gave up seven runs on eight hits in five innings of a 10-4 home loss to the Rangers on April 6 and then gave up six runs on 12 hits in five innings of an 8-3 loss at Seattle on Saturday.

The Royals are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a 'dog and for some reason really like playing in the Angels' stadium. Grab the plus money and take a shot with Kansas City in this one.

3♦ KANSAS CITY


Seattle (-105) at OAKLAND Drew Gordon

With Seattle heating up, and Oakland unable to produce, there's no question you've got to like the Mariners in this one. Got to like what you've seen from this Mariners club over their last 6 games (4-2 over that span), with their only poor outing coming against the Royals surging Zach Greike. Ibanez, Beltre, and Suzuki (among others) are all swinging the bat well of late, and that's bad news for the A's Lenny DiNardo in this one.

Speaking of DiNardo, he has no record against Seattle, but has posted an ugly 5.52 ERA in 5 career appearances (2 starts) against them. In his last start against them, back on July 29th of last season, he got massacred for 7 runs over just 3 innings in one of his worst starts of 2007. Again, with Seattle's batting order starting to heat up, DiNardo will find himself in trouble once again tonight.

Opposing DiNardo is the Mariners Carlos Silva, who's not only pitched well in his 3 starts this season (2-0, 3.27 ERA), but also had plenty of success against the A's, going 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 9 career appearances (8 starts). He was rock-solid in his last one against them (as a member of the Twins), limiting the A's to 3 runs over 6 2/3 innings back on July 14th of last season.

Bottom line, the way Oakland is swinging the bats right now (batting .246 L10 games), there's little hope of keeping pace with a Seattle offense that crushed DiNardo the last time they saw him. Let's not forget the Mariners have taken 15 of the last 20 games from Oakland, and there's little reason to believe that's going to change tonight.

Take Seattle behind Silva over Oakland and DiNardo in this MLB match up.

3♦ SEATTLE




James Patrick


Diamond Club Selections

Nationals vs. Mets 7:10 p.m. est.
We?ll take #959 Washington ? New York Over the Total as our Thursday complimentary selection in Major League action.


Marc Lawrence


MLB

Play On: Minnesota w/Bonser

Note: Twins close out this two-game set with the Rays in Minnesota tonight behind Boof Bonser knowing he is 5-1 in his career team starts on Thursdays. He's also in solid KW form with 12 strikeouts and 2 walks in his three starts this season. Look for the Twins to improve to 13-2 as a host in this series behind Bonser tonight.





Dave Cokin


975 Mariners @ 976 A's 10:05PM ET
Play: Mariners +100

Carlos Silva has some flaws to be sure, but he's generally good for six or seven innings and does well enough to give his team a chance to win the game. The same cannot be said for Lenny DiNardo, who usually goes five or six tops, meaning much more work for the bullpen. The Mariners are off back to back solid wins, so I'm looking at them as a decent play to get past the A's in this series windup.

Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (965) DET Tigers and (966) CLE Indians. Take "Under". Both teams have struggled with the bats early in the season, which was not expected. Cold weather in the Northeast hasn.5?t helped the bats. The Indians had to battle 38 degree weather in a game this week at home. Detroit comes to town averaging just 3 runs per game on the road. A pair of hard throwing hurlers won.5?t help the bats this game with Verlander against Carmona. Don.5?t look for an offensive show in Cleveland. Play the Tigers/Indians under the total!




BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS


Play on: New York (Mussina) over Boston (Beckett)
Veteran Mike Mussina (4.15) of New York has surely lost his velocity going back to his days in Baltimore, but the veteran still knows how to pitch and should benefit being at home on Thursday. With the Yankees off back-to-back losses (in Boston) versus the Bosaux, I like our chances going up against ace Josh Beckett who seemingly does not yet have the strength go 7 or 8 solid innings. Remember Beckett still exhibits a 6+ ERA overall, despite the recent up-tick in control. The Yankees have won 46 of 66 at home and show with a nice 8 of 11 mark against this talented and hated visitor. Finally, we find New York 5-0 L5 meetings versus Boston in Yankee Stadium.




Alex Smart



Game: Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Game Time: 4/17/2008 10:05:00 PM
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Reason: Jake Peavy (3-0 , 1.64 ERA), the NL's reigning Cy Young Award winner, looks to continue his top tier performances as he goes for his fourth straight win to start his 2008 campaign this Thursday when the Padres close out a three-game series with the visiting Rockies. After getting buried 10-2 yesterday ,the Padres will be very motivated to get some redemption, and have the edge with their ace on the hill. Note: The Rockies will send Jeff Francis (0-2, 9.53) to the mound in return . Francis is fast becoming notorious for early season struggles, and has continued down that path this season, as was the case in both of his starts. Final notes & Key Trends: Francis went (1-3, 6.61 ERA in five starts) vs the Padres last year. Play on San Diego
 

the duke

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PAUL LEINER

10* Rays +110
5* Cubs -135

Also has a 20* MLB Total going today
 

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Vegas Experts


Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Thursday, April 17th, 7:05 PM ET

The Indians haven't looked very good at all lately, but both they and starter Fausto Carmona are due here. Carmona owned the Tigers last year, compiling a 4-1 team start record against the division rival. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander has just looked awful for Detroit, who has lost all three of his starts this season. He owns a TSR of just 6-12 vs. division opponents and has an ERA approaching 7.00 against Cleveland.

Play on: Cleveland




John Fina



Selection: San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs (+135)

Today the Colorado Rockies will be on the road as they take on the San Diego Padres. We will lay 1.5 Runs with the San Diego Padres. The San Diego Padres will be sending to the mound the much superior pitcher. The Colorado Rockies send to the mound Jeff Francis. In two starts, Jeff Francis has only pitched 11.1 innings and has given up 12 runs (9.53 ERA). Jeff Francis has also been known to struggle against the San Diego Padres. This is shown by the Colorado Rockies (when Jeff Francis is starting) being 3-8 in their last 11 meetings against the San Diego Padres. On the other hand, the San Diego Padres will send to the mound star pitcher Jake Peavy. Jake Peavy is a Perfect 3-0 on the season with a solid 1.64 ERA (giving up only 4 runs in 22 innings pitched). In addition to having the better starting pitcher on the mound, the San Diego Padres also have the better offense and defense. Since this is the case, we will gladly lay the 1.5 runs with the San Diego Padres. Take the San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs




Tony Mathews

Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (-120)

Explanation: We will side with the St. Louis Cardinals (-120) as they face-off against the Milwaukee Brewers in Thursday's MLB contest.

The Milwaukee Brewers will use starting pitcher Manny Parra. Manny Parra has struggled so far this season. In two starts, Manny Parra already has a 4.82 ERA. To say the least, we see the St. Louis Cardinals being able to score many runs off Manny Parra.

The St. Louis Cardinals will use starting pitcher Kyle Lohse. Kyle Lohse has pitched well this season. Kyle Lohse is a Perfect 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA (giving up only 2 runs in 17.1 innings pitched). It's safe to say that the Milwaukee Brewers will struggle to score runs off Kyle Lohse.

The St. Louis Cardinals have proven they can beat the Milwaukee Brewers. In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 meetings against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Take the St. Louis Cardinals!




Jimmy The Moose


Game: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

Reason: The Reds were blown out last night but they hope to get back on the winnning side with one of their young arms taking the mound. Volquez, 1-0, with a 0.87 ERA will be pitching for the Reds tonight. His last start was cut short by the weather but this kid can pitch and he'll show it this afternoon. The Cubs counter with 0-2 Ted Lilly and his horrible 9.95 ERA. Lilly hasn't looked good on the mound and the Cubs have lost 2 of his 3 starts this season. The Cubs have lost 5 of his last 6 starts. Chicago has lost 3 of Lilly's last 4 starts vs. the Reds. Play on the Cincinnati Reds +.



Matt Fargo


Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Seattle Mariners

I grabbed Seattle in a great spot last night and I will hold on again tonight. As mentioned yesterday, it has been up and down for Seattle so far this season and we look to be once again catching it in an upward turn. The Mariners had a run of 0-4 and then won four of five before losing two in row on Sunday and Monday. The Mariners have now won two straight and look to sweep this short two-game set before heading to Anaheim for another big divisional series over the weekend.

While Seattle is in an upward move, the A?s are heading down. Oakland started the season surprisingly hot and had won eight of ten games before dropping its last two contests. They are just 2-4 at home and the offense continues to struggle which does not come as a surprise from this end. Oakland has scored a total of six runs in the last four games combined and it has scored two runs or less in seven of its last 16 games. Dating back to last season, the A?s are 4-11 in their last 15 home games.

Carlos Silva is not going to blow hitters away so facing potent offenses is usually his downfall. Well, he does not have to worry about that tonight facing Oakland as the A?s are hitting just .241 on the season including .221 at home. Despite allowing 11 hits against the Angels in his last start, Silva still tossed a quality outing as he was efficient and limited his pitch count. He has started against Oakland eight times and has posted a 3.12 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with six of those games quality starts.

Oakland sends Lenny DiNardo to the hill who will be making his second start of the season for the injured Rich Harden. It was a very solid effort against the Indians but I do not expect a repeat of that tonight. He has struggled with inconsistency since coming over from Boston and facing the Mariners again will not help matters. He has started two games against Seattle including one last season where he allowed seven runs in just three innings. Seattle is hitting .303 against lefties on the season. Play Seattle Mariners 1.5 Units


Al Mcmordie


Game: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Reason: At 7:05pm ET our member selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Chicago White Sox. After a red-hot start, the Orioles have started to cool off a bit, going 2-6 in their last eight games and falling out of first place in the AL East division. Having said that, the O's have to continue to be thrilled about their pitching thus far. Last Saturday, their talented, but inconsistent starter Daniel Cabrera pitched a gem and limited the Tampa Bay Rays to only one ER in 6 2/3 innings. Then on Monday, Matt Albers shut down Toronto in his first start of the year as the O's beat the Jays 4-2. And yesterday, lefthander Adam Loewen (the heir-apparent to recently-departed, fellow Canadian Erik Bedard) gave up three ER in the first inning before blanking this Chicago team over the next five innings in a tough 3-1 loss. Now it's time for the new Baltimore ace, righthander Jeremy Guthrie to try and build on this optimistic start to the season for the O's hurlers. After getting roughed up on opening day by the Rays, Guthrie settled down in his next two starts and gave up only four ER in 13 1/3 innings against the Rays and Mariners. Take the O's.
 
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Larry Ness

15* Getaway Day GOW (8-1 s/April 7!) $35.00

Larry's overall start to the MLB season has not matched incredibly fast start of '07 but he is on an 8-1 run with his 15* GOW plays since April 7. Don't miss Larry's 15* Getaway Game of the Week, giving you an opportunity to join Larry in the winner's circle even before your workday is through. Win early with Larry on Thursday.

15* St Louis Cardinals
 

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Ben Burns

Getaway Day Total of the Month (EARLY START) $35.00

Exactly one week ago, Ben Burns released his April "Getaway Day Game of the Month," a 7-0 winner on Tampa over Seattle. If you like cashing that ticket, you won't want to miss out on Ben's April "Getaway Day Total of the Month." It's an ABSOLUTE BEAUTY and it goes EARLY this afternoon. Don't even think about sleeping in!

OVER Philadelphia/Houston
 

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Lenny Del Genio

20* Getaway Day GOM (7-2 MLB Run) $30.00

Lenny went 5-2 on Wednesday and is now an INCREDIBLE 17-6 (74%) w/ all his picks since Friday! That includes a 7-2 MLB Run following yesterday's winning Triple Play (now 80% TY)! The "winning starts early" today w/ Lenny's 20* Getaway Day Game of the Month. Put an oddsmakers edge on your side!


St. Louis Cardinals
 

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SCOTT SPREITZER

THURS NITE DIVISIONAL GOW! *2-0!

Promo:
Scott Spreitzer cashed his AL EAST Game of the Week last night when the Yankees rocked the Red Sox. Scott's 2-0 with Div GOWs thus far, winning by a combined score of 26-to-9! Scott unloads another B-L-O-W-O-U-T tonight. Grab his Thursday night DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE WEEK and cash again!
($35)

Seattle Mariners
 

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Winners Edge

Mlb:

Atlanta Braves Rl -1.5 Even , 2 Units

Houston Astros Rl +1.5 -135, 2 Units

Ny Yankees +115 , 2 Units



Insider Sports Report


4* Chicago White Sox (Floyd) -105 over Baltimore
(Guthrie)
Range +115 to -120

3* Minnesota (Bonser) -125 over Tampa Bay (Hammel)
Range -110 to -145

3* St. Louis (Lohse) -125 over Milwaukee (Parra)
Range -110 to -140
 

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WILD BILL



Braves -165 (5 units)
Rockies +175 (1 unit)
White Sox +110 (1 unit)
Red Sox -125 (5 units)
Tigers +120 (1 unit)
Royals +150 (1 unit)
Over 9 Royals-Angels (1 unit)
 

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Wunderdog Comps

Game: Houston at Philadelphia (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Houston +159 (moneyline)
It has been a very suspect start of the '08 season for Brett Myers. He has been touched up for five HRs in just 18 innings of work, and his ERA is a stout five. Myers has had difficulty with his role as starter, then reliever, then starter again. His last eight starts have lead to the Phillies going 1-7, and his ERA is a ridiculous 6.02. He has also allowed 11 HRs in just 46 innings. Most forget that Brandon Backe has pitched to an ERA in the 3's over all his appearances the last three years. Going back to last September he has allowed an average of two runs over his last eight starts. Like the value in these odds and will back the Stro's here.







NHL PLAYOFFS
Game: Washington at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -135 (moneyline)

What can you say about those Flyers? Wow they are really putting on a show. They have shutdown Ovechkin. Ovechkin seems frustrated and ineffective in his first three games against the Flyers. Let's not discount the Flyers though. They have scored 12 times in three games including six goals in game 3. Another bright spot for the Flyers in great penalty killing. The flyers stopped seven-of-eight power plays in game 3 - no doubt helping them win the game. Tough defense, shutting down Ovechkin and team scoring will help the Flyers pull off another win at home. Take Philadelphia at home.
 

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SportsKingz
MLB:

ST. LOUIS -115 (1150 TO WIN 1000)

CLEVELAND -130 (1300 TO WIN 1000)

L.A. ANGELS -175 (1750 TO WIN 1000)
 

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Winning Points Online

MLB.

6-10 -660

Thursday, April 17, 2008

BOSTON (Beckett) -125 over NY YANKEES (Mussina)

Although the Yankee's bats took care of business last night
against Clay Buchholz as predicted, they will be facing a much
tougher righty tonight. The off outing by Chien-Ming Wang
and a very suspect Yankee bullpen made last night's game
alot closer than it shoud have been. If Mike Mussina's
85mph fastballs aren't blowing batters away, then the New York
bullpen who dearly misses Joba Chamberlain and has
been extremely overworked might not be able to keep the
Bosox hitters at bay. Boston's 20 game winner from last season
should be able to tame the Yanks offense.
 
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