Duke
Duke
Alright, Duke has been on a roll, as they are playing great on both ends of the floor. They have covered 9 in a row. Can they make it 10 in a row against FSU tonight? I think it's entirely possible, although the line is a bit high. I'd advise betting Duke or laying off the game. I'm betting Duke on teasers, as I think there is greater value at 13.5 or so. Basically, Duke will cover tonight if they can shut down Tim Pickett, FSU's streaky shooting guard. Bottom line, when Pickett is shooting well, his team stays in the game, when he doesn't, game over. Florida State has a miniscule chance of winning this game, as they have the longest road losing streak in the ACC, while Duke has the longest home winning streak. That's the recipe for an easy Duke win, even if Pickett can keep Florida State close for the first half. Look for Daniel Ewing and Sean Dockery to guard Pickett and try to keep him driving to the basket as opposed to bombing from three-point land.
I really like the over in this game. Duke has recently turned on their offensive game. I think Duke scores 85+ tonight, giving Florida State a few extra possessions to score some buckets. Duke plays excellent D, but this is a stronger FSU team than the ones that get have gotten manhandled in Cameron in recent years. I see this as an 85-65 Duke victory. Even if Duke doesn't cover, the over is a bet with good value, especially in a teaser.
Duke -17.5 1 unit
over 136.5 2 units
Teasers
Duke -13.5 and Sacramento Kings +9.5 5 units
Duke -13.5 and over 132.5 3 1/2 units
Duke over 132.5 and Sacramento Kings +9.5 4 units
