Thursday dogs - WTF...

[Nickster]

has happened, just about every favourite won?

Is this just a normal variation of statistics or top teams tend to play tougher in the second part or maybe that's what they would do every time if they were well rested? I simply don't know and would like to hear anyone's take on this subject! Thanks!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Initially, I thought many of the dogs would be good plays yesterday. But, prior to analyzing the games and pursuing this angle, I went back and looked at the last three years of data of DOGS vs. FAVS in the Thursday games right after the All-Star Break. It appears that FAVS are slightly undervalued.

1999 -- 5 dogs won.....9 favs won NET: FAVS +2.1 units

2000 -- 7 dogs won....6 favs won NET: DOGS +3.2 units

2001 -- 5 dogs won....10 favs won NET: FAVS +2.9 units
(Interleague Play)

Add yesterday's results where the way I saw it, 10 FAVS won (the other games were close to pick em), and we get 35 wins and just 22 losses for the FAVS and a net of about 11 units.

Something to keep an eye on in the future.

PS -- I also noticed that line movement was WRONG yesterday on most of the games (this happens the first week of the season, as well). The money moved in the wrong direction more often thatn not.

ND

 

[Nickster]

Thanks Nolan!

Thanks Nolan!